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CONTENTS A.EDAP Overview, the problem, the Vision, the solution...1 B.EDAP Domains 1. Sustainable Food System...............................5 2. Sustainable Energy System...........................11 a. Transportation..................................17 b. Heating..............................................19 3. Shelter...........................................................21 C.EDAP Heart of Transition.............................23 1. Transition community dialogue 2. Transition lifestyle model 3. Where do we go from here
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Transition Town Montpelier, EDAP

Mar 13, 2016

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Jim Buckley

Energy Descent Action Plan for Central Vermont, (short version)
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Page 1: Transition Town Montpelier, EDAP

CONTENTS A.EDAP Overview, the problem, the Vision, the solution...1 B.EDAP Domains

1. Sustainable Food System...............................5 2. Sustainable Energy System...........................11

a. Transportation..................................17 b. Heating..............................................19

3. Shelter...........................................................21

C.EDAP Heart of Transition.............................23 1. Transition community dialogue 2. Transition lifestyle model 3. Where do we go from here

Page 2: Transition Town Montpelier, EDAP

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont

Section A, EDAP Overview and Vision, The world we live in is changing.

“The most basic issue confronting us in the present, and threatening the future, is that of human-earth relations. The world as humans have known it is in a transitional phase. We are not just passing into another historical period or another cultural modification. We are changing the chemistry of the earth, the bio-systems, and the geo-systems on the scale of millions of years. We are terminating the life systems that have been intact for millions of years. In short we have brought a discontinuity to our entire ecological system.” Thomas Berry

Sustainability is the balance of all human systems and eco-systems that leaves the lightest footprint possible on the biosphere to achieve our wellbeing and essential needs (in an equal basis for all). Sustainability allows the systems to work in perpetuity so future generations can achieve their essential needs and wellbeing. To do this we must develop political and economic systems to maintain them, and achieve a global wisdom that can sustain this balance. This will enable us to transition to a new phase of a really sustainable world. Sustainability and eco-ethics leads us to ask, “How well are people, how well is the ecosystem, and how well are people and the ecosystem affecting each other?”.The questions can only be answered if objective components like water and land use and more subjective components like health, equity, and wisdom are included in the assessment. Our guiding model should be natural systems – where the infrastructures and practices of nature continually renew themselves from within. Whose subunits cooperate to preserve its integrity, its structure, and its behavior, and tends to restore them after a non-destructive disturbance. The system can maintain constancy in biological function in spite of fairly large swings in exterior facts. As an overarching ethos guide to developing an equitable and sustainable paradigm, Transition Town Montpelier, in creating this energy plan, has endorsed the Earth Charter principles. The Earth Charter provides a comprehensive approach to presenting values for a global shared vision to provide an ethical and equitable foundation for a sustainable world. Affirming interdependent principles for a sustainable way of life as a common standard by which the conduct of all individuals, organizations, businesses, governments, and transnational institutions is to be guided and assessed. The Earth Charter preamble says; as the world becomes increasingly interdependent and fragile, the future at once holds great peril and great promise. To move forward we must recognize that in the midst of a magnificent diversity of cultures and life forms we are one human family and one Earth community with a common destiny. This is an ethos founded on respect for nature, economic justice, and a culture of peace that promotes the recovery of endangered species and ecosystems, and its renewable resources such as water, soil, forest products, and marine life in ways that do not exceed rates of regeneration and that protect the health of ecosystems.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 2

In addition, the charter endorses democratic societies that implement these ecological principles enabling all to achieve a secure and meaningful livelihood that is ecologically responsible, and that adopt patterns of production, consumption, and reproduction that safeguard Earth's regenerative capacities and community well-being. Scope of Problem; The Transition Town international movement includes comprehensive community planning as an integral part of the Transition Town model of action. This comprehensive planning is called the Energy Descent Action Plan or EDAP. The Transition Town model does this as a response to the global context of overlapping problems we all face. Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale, because most of us understand that governments and political systems are not acting urgently or on a scale to promote sustainability. We also know that every one acting individually, while good, may prove to be too little to achieve a collective sustainable future. Only acting as communities might we provide enough change in time to save our planet and bring some sort of equilibrium to the eco-system. The scope of the global problems go beyond Climate Change and Peak Oil to an unsustainable economic system, a population problem, an environmental destruction problem, a political power dysfunction, ongoing cultural conflicts, and the psychological problem of facing the change needed. While we cannot affect change in all these areas we can work locally to move to a more sustainable system. Among the overlapping problems are a three-fold global energy crisis that has emerged since the 1970s; it is now acute on all fronts. The three components of the energy crisis that are intimately connected are:

Severe climate change, caused mainly by emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning and associated emissions of other greenhouse gases;

The depletion of fossil fuels based on Peak oil scenarios. Oil is a leading source of global and U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as well as a principal source of local air pollution.

Economic instability. Climate Change: The evidence of serious climate change, induced mainly by emissions of greenhouse gases, is now overwhelming; it need not be recounted here in detail. As of 2012 the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is over 390 parts per million (ppm). (IPCC), estimates that the cumulative CO2-equivalent must be within the 445 to 490 parts per million range in order to limit the mean global temperature rise to 2.0 to 2.4 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit). The IPCC estimates that it will be necessary to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 50 to 85 percent relative to 2000 by 2050 in order to limit the temperature rise to less than 2 to 2.4 degrees Celsius. With a 50 percent reduction there is only a 15 percent chance of limiting the temperature rise to this range; with 85 percent CO2 emissions reduction, there would be an 85 percent chance of achieving the temperature limitation goal, assuming a near-total elimination of emissions from fossil fuels will be required in the United States. The average temperature in Central Vermont has “increased 1.8°F since 1970,” (Alan Betts), and is predicted to rise by the same again between now and 2030. Globally, of most concern, is the scale of the melting of the ice in the Arctic, long seen by climate scientists as one of the crucial indicators of climate change. The pace of melting is far faster than anyone expected. in its worst-case scenario, the arctic ice might start to break up, and if current trends continue it could all be gone in summer by 2040. Governments are now responding, but are working to targets of 450parts per million. The latest science tells us that we need to cut to 350 parts per million. We have already passed 390ppm. Our time for postponing action and for procrastination has long passed. The scale of the cuts we need to make in our carbon emissions is profound, yet achievable, and could be the catalyst for an extraordinary revolution for industry and commerce.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 3

Peak Oil: Peak oil is when over half the global oil reserve is depleted and the second half is pumped more slowly, expensively, and serving higher demand. Governments and market economies start by assuming that in 20 years more jobs, more energy, more cars, more houses, more businesses, and more economic growth can be expected. However, it is becoming clear that each of those assump-tions is becoming increasingly questionable. Our lifestyles depend on cheap oil for virtually everything in our homes, from our food to our shoes. The 21st century way of living is literally built out of oil. The peak oil argument does not say that one day soon we will run out of oil, we may well never see that day; what it says is that we will soon see that end of the age of cheap oil and all that that has made possible. It will prove to be a historic shift. We have extracted and burnt 1200 billion barrels of crude oil, nearly half of all the ancient sunlight laid down in prehistory. That is an astonishing amount of any material, never mind one that has the long term impacts that it has had on the climate, the environment and on humanity. Economic Instability: Money is brought into existence by being lent to people, so money, really, equals debt. The trouble with generating debt is that it is based on the assumption that the future will be wealthier than the present, in order to repay that debt. Underpinning that is the assumption that there will always be the cheap energy to enable the economic growth required. We are moving from a time in history when our degree of economic success and personal well being is directly linked to our level of oil consumption, to a time when our degree of oil dependency is our degree of vulnerability. For many people, it is increasingly clear that we cannot continue as we have been, and that the three key trends of climate change, peak oil, and economic instability are forcing our hands, making major and far-reaching change inevitable. These changes include, but are not limited to, 1) reducing our reliance on fossil fuel by seeking alternative sources of energy, 2) reducing our carbon foot print in all aspects of our lives, 3) relying on locally grown food, 4) consuming less. Defining Sustainability and Resilience – What is it and how do we achieve it? “Sustainability is about creating systems that are sustainable for us and for future generations, as well as the consciousness that can maintain them.” (K. Wilber). Sustainability also means ecologically healthy systems. This makes something like regional and national electric grids hard to justify as sustainable if the energy transmitted is not. To change and transition from a paradigm of gross consumption that has caused these problems, we must move to a new paradigm of sustainability. We used to live within systems our human lives depended on that were sustainable. An economic and financial system that strives for unlimited growth and use of natural resources is intrinsically unsustainable. A food system based on fossil fuels, purchasing almost everything we eat, and growing it at great distances from where we live fosters a deepening disconnection from natural systems making those systems unsustainable. An energy system based on centralized economic power to harvest and distribute energy that is a limited resource of fossil fuels; depleting this limited resource without ethos or regard for its limited quantity, is all unsustainable. We now live within totally unsustainable systems. Sustainability implies a change to the existing modern Paradigm system, just for the very fact that the existing system cannot correct itself. A new paradigm has to emerge as this present one diminishes. Therefore, new sustainable systems must be initiated now to replace those unsustainable systems. (It’s beyond the scope of this EDAP phase to address fully what this entails.) Key principles in achieving sustainable systems start with an understanding or resilience; which is the ability of a system, whether an ecosystem, an economic system, or an energy system, to withstand shock impacts from external sources. Resilience is about building the ability to adapt to shock, to be flexible and able to modify, rather than to collapse. Transition economics, for example, becomes resilient when more of the communities money cycles locally, creating more jobs locally. Systems that are more diverse and local in terms of skills, resources used, land use, job creating, food and energy production, are inherently more resilient. Other key principles the

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 4

EDAP stresses are Mitigation, Adaptation, Restoration, carbon sequestration, and Renaissance which is renewing our connection to the biosphere, the planet, and each other. To be sustainable we must reduce fossil fuel use and therefore CO2 emissions to re-achieve the norm of 350ppm; meaning reducing emissions by 80% by 2032 and 95% by 2050. (Note; This EDAP addresses a few key domains on energy infrastructure that suggest by reducing energy needs and changing how we supply energy will set a foundation for a sustainable ecosystem with less stress. Further exploration on ecosystem health is required).

The Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP): An EDAP sets out to explore how any town could make the move away from its oil dependency, seeing a huge potential opportunity in these inevitable changes. This Plan is a community driven re-localization plan, known in the Transition Town movement as the 'Energy Descent Action Plan'. In order to do these plans we asked what is it we must do to achieve sustainability? How do we become a resilient sustainable community that mitigates the effects of peak oil and reduces our carbon emissions so that we can mitigate the effects of climate change? It is comprehensive planning for a sustainable community. Major domain areas that may be addressed are broadly referred to in the graphic at right. Local EDAPs may vary in what domains and topics they wish to address. The EDAP establishes, or suggests, goals and benchmarks in domains where these seem relevant. For example, our first emphasis this

EDAP wishes to establish is that renewable sources of energy cannot replace what fossil fuels do now, nor would we wish it to because of the environmental damage and resource depletion unlimited energy use implies. Therefore, energy reductions go hand in hand, and are married to renewable sources of energy to create sustainable systems, as indicated in the graphic. And, Energy reductions take place on at least 2 fronts; Conservation, where resources used and energy needs are lessened (often by lifestyle changes), and Energy efficiency,

when energy is needed it is achieved as efficiently as possible, for example, better refrigerators or better building insulation. Also, this EDAP is a plan that indicates necessary goals as a response to Climate Change and Peak Oil scenarios. That is, the goals are the minimum [or a range] necessary to avoid catastrophic environmental tipping points, and not adjusted for today’s political reality. It is necessary for us to understand political reality, in order to change it. Political reality must change, rather than we compromise the goals and cross those severe tipping points. The methodology we followed for the EDAP is the model Totnes used for making an energy descent plan. The model identifies topics like “Food Production,” Defines that subjects present conditions, data, and the challenge. Then, an envisioning process envisions the future we want and “backcasting” is used to model and achieve the vision. The backcasting method lists practical steps, plans, and projects across a timeline, to move towards the vision. It includes who carries out each step whether community members, the city council, regional or state govt., or other organizations. For our group this meant collecting data, backcasting through various rhetorical examples for how we envision Vermont and more specifically Central Vermont in 10 to 20 years. We describe how the plan will engage all community members, including the majority who are not

Community

cooperation

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 5

fully informed, in vision and ideas, over the timeline, and how we will connect with and partner with organizations, and political/government partners. Again, the emphasis is to address the Key Challenges:

Peak Oil and Climate Change. Carbon sequestration: removing maximum possible carbon from the atmosphere, through landscape

and restoration techniques. Repairing biodiversity; and maintaining adequate clean water supplies with less energy inputs

Increasing renewable energy supplies to meet 50% of planned energy demand. Reducing energy use by 50% by 2032; reducing waste to zero.

Society making an inner transition, learning cooperation, and taking responsibility. If we continue to ignore the problems facing society and continue business as usual in Vermont by 2030 we are likely to see decreasing happiness and personal respect, and increasing fear, denial, austerity, poverty, climate chaos, severe environmental degradation, over-crowding, civil strife and an acceleration towards chaos, fragmentation and the decline of civilisation as we know it. The symptoms of a society in collapse will

be clearly upon us. If we are willing to change we can initiate and build on a strong ray of hope and positive visioning that can guide us to a better life. The biggest challenges are relearning to live within the carrying capacity of one earth; reducing energy and material consumption, and repair and regeneration of biodiversity and ecosystems.

Section B1, Sustainable Food System,

Due to Climate Change we can expect more severe, wet weather with floods (2011), hurricane effects, and warm winters like 2012; alternating with expected dry spells and low winter snowfall that will affect the Vermont growing season and the productivity of Vermont crops. Temperature may rise of 5-15 degrees F, during parts of any year and a 30% increase in annual precipitation with more likely spring and fall floods; longer growing seasons with heat stress and possible droughts, increased water demands and increased pest problems. In addition climate changes that affect other areas of the country such as early frosts in Florida, or disasters in Texas or California lead to poorer quality of imported foods along with higher costs for the imported foods. Clearly keeping the status quo is not a desirable, nor a sensible, state of affairs. Our challenge is to rebuild the food-shed that once supported Central Vermont, although what we will be putting back will be very different from what was there before. For Vermont to reach a sustainable, resilient future in food there will have to be a dramatic shift away from dairy and into other products that will be used to feed itself. Key objectives; we can state the following as being our priority actions over the next 10-15 years:

Key ingredients for community Transition in Central Vermont:

1. Leadership is diversified and representative of age, gender, and cultural composition of the community and is visionary, shares power and builds consensus. Community members are involved in significant community decisions.

2. The community feels a sense of pride. People feel optimistic about the future of the community. There is a spirit of mutual assistance and cooperation in the community

3. Organisations in the community have developed partnerships and collaborative working relationships

4. Employment in the community is diversified beyond a single large employer 5. The community has a strategy for increasing independent local ownership 6. There is openness to alternative ways of earning a living and economic activity 7. The community is working cooperatively along 4 levels of action; individuals,

community groups like towns and neighbourhoods, commercial and businesses, and local and state government policy and participation.

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Build and increase the market for local food Increase the physical and political infrastructure for local food

growing, processing and distribution. Changes to land legislation, including planning laws to open up

land for food production. Decrease the distance between producers and consumers. Utilize available resources for urban agriculture. Produce food with minimal imported materials in a sustainable

manner. At present, Vermont imports 90+% of its food. Though a large amount of food is grown in gardens we have no record of how much food is grown and eaten using local gardens. We do know that there is some percentage of the imported food we could grow in Vermont. Vermont exported in 2010 $27.4 million worth of dairy productsEighty-five per cent [85%] of our milk leaves the state, and Vermont is dependent on one commodity, milk, than any other state. Milk accounts for 70 – 80 percent of Vermont’s agricultural income. A ‘food-shed’ can be called a catchment of land in towns and around town centers that provides for its key food needs. It is a highly diversified approach where market gardens, yard gardens, small mixed farms, orchards, creameries, flourish in the surrounding countryside. For the last 30 years we our food supply system is underpinned, and indeed made possible, by the uninterrupted flow of cheap oil and gas. Each calorie of food that lands on our plates has needed at least 10 calories of fossil fuel to grow, process, store and transport it. We have also become increasingly dependent on just-in-time distribution systems, with the result that although we now have access to a greater variety of foods from all corners of the world than at any point in our history, we are also, at any one time, only a couple of days away from a major food crisis should the transportation that make it possible stop running. By 2030 we hope 80% of food consumed locally is grown within 100-200 miles, and the proportion of the population employed in agriculture has grown sharply. Land areas throughout Central Vermont will have to re-direct their land use to focus mainly on the production of food for local markets. Towns will have to see huge increase in ‘urban agriculture’; growing food in back gardens, public spaces and on any available land. And, 4 levels of gardening have been adopted; individual, community, Commercial [e.g. CSAs or Food Hubs], and public use. EDAP Food System, Existing Data; Central Vermont has a population 65,000 people in 23 towns, on 520,000 acres of land. 3-7% of population work in food, agriculture, forestry and fishery, however, we will need up to 20% of population in these industries for a sustainable community.

Existing Agriculture (+open) land,

66,250 acres Scrub – 18,000a

Grain

area,

4500 acres

To be

decided

Forest area

404,000 acres, 77% (from this - establish Land reserve of x%)

Dairy area

10,000 acres

Garden crops

12,000 acres Meat areas 18,000acres

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We must become more self reliant in food, fodder, fertility, fiber (clothing material), and fuel. While reducing meat consumption to 1975 level, doing it organically (using permaculture methods), and preserving a reasonable proportion of land for wildlife. Our recommended Goal would be 80% local, and 20% import by 2032. Included are:

Provide 2,700 calories per person/day. Milk; 568 g per person/day. Supplement meat protein based diet to walnuts and chestnut protein sources.

Animals will be grass fed, natural methods... 7kg fiber for clothing per person/yr. Increase fruit and nut tree orchards. Create fertility, fertilizer, land and crop nutrients by sustainable organic practices.

To achieve the 80% local goal, a demand must be created for local foods; The problem of urgency must become understood. There will need to be a willingness for diet change; and, a willingness to work on the land in agriculture and working landscape jobs.

Vermont agricultural history is one of great diversity that we seem to have lost. The indigenous native

skills of the Abenaki were sugaring, hunting wild game, and food production. Between the 1830s – 1850s

sheep became a principal commodity both for wool [Merino] and meat. But that gave way to dairy as by 1890

Vermont became known as the butter capital of the world. in the mid-1800’s Vermont was known as the

“bread basket of New England”. Vermont farmers grew wheat, barley, oats, potatoes, hemp, hops, apples,

other vegetables, and even tobacco! Diversity meant economic survival. That diversity is what we must once

again achieve.

A ‘food-shed’ can be called a catchment of land in towns and around town centers that provides for its key food needs. It is a highly diversified approach where market gardens, yard gardens, small mixed farms, orchards, creameries, flourish in the surrounding countryside.The Challenges the Food shed will face is the cost of food that is intrinsically linked to oil and the changes that will affect what we grow due to climate changes. There are 2 major things that will continue to affect the import of foods to Vermont; how current

In 2009 of the total $517,256,000 in market commodities $131,000,000 was exported out of state. The top 5 commodities exported – weirdly enough – are listed. I cannot explain why poultry is at the top of the list! These top 5 make up 96.5% of the total amount exported

Washington County has 59,334 people as per the 2010 statistics. Washington County has 61,029 acres that are listed as being farmed in the 2007 census. This is an increase of 13% [53,942 acres] from the 2002 agricultural census.

Food benchmarks

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energy costs affect our food costs, and how climate changes affect our food. “In the "long run" model, both consumers and food producers respond to changing prices. In the short run, the effect of an increase in the price of energy is fully (or nearly fully) passed on to consumers because neither food producers nor consumers can immediately respond to changing prices. In the long run, however, the price response of food producers and consumers serves to mitigate the increase in consumer food prices.” Effects of Climate Change on the Food Shed Climate change will affect crop and livestock yields worldwide, which will lead to changes in food and fiber consumption, prices of agricultural commodities, and farm incomes. Agriculture has a potential role to play in reducing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide through

increased sequestration and possibly through provision of biofuels. If left unchecked climate change will produce a shift - which in turn will affect what will be

grown here. The graphic shows the shift in state climate and hardiness zones. Zone 3 is less; zone 5 increases. Unchecked Vermont will have almost no more zone 3 at all

and will be mostly zones 4 and 5.

VT Climate Change indicators[Betts 2011]

Vermont State House Lawn garden; Apple Corps We desire to build a community in Central Vermont that will produce

healthy food without the use of petro chemicals and will do so by

not supporting huge corporations. In other words we will promote

the personhood of every citizen of Vermont and corporations will not

be recognized as ‘a person’. Our community will support our

farmers, growers, and food processors by providing fair prices and

living wages while simultaneously providing food security for all Vermonters. The major Objective is to move

from 95% import and 5% local food consumption to 80/20 by 2017, 60/40 by 2022, 40/60 by 2027 and 20

import/80 local by 2032.

Reliance means developing food hubs, CSA's,

community gardens.

•Alternative monetary sources and networking with existing resources.

Resilience means Vermont can feed itself;

it has the land base and food shed. It means local food production within 100-200 miles.

•Resilience will require more CSA's; home owner gardens growing 10-30% of their food; processing and storage hubs.

Renaissance means a shift from dairy to

grains, flax & hemp & a

•Shift to Permaculture diversity of polyculture

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Following is a study done by Wayne Ohlsson using data from the Vermont state data, and John Jeavons work in his book How to Grow more Vegetables . Further work needs to be done on the essential calorie, protein, mineral, and vitamin crops, as well as developing sustainable soil fertility by the Nutrient Dense Mineral Support methodology, taught by Dan Kittredge of the Real Food Campaign. Acreage needed for 630,000 people, for State of Vermont Population

1. About 10,000-20,000 Acres for vegetables; 21,000 Acres needed for commercial production of vegetables for 630,000 people or @ 700 sq.ft./person with moderately intensive grown vegetables, about 10,000 Acres needed for 630,000 people - (based on current consumption levels in U.S.)

2. About 725 Acres for fruit & berries; About 725 Acres needed for fruit & berries for 630,000 people - (based on current consumption levels in U.S.)

3. About 100,000 Acres for dairy; Vermont currently has 150,000 milk cows that produce some three billion pounds of milk per year = ca. 20,000 lbs./cow (enough milk & cheese for ca. 6.667 million people).

a. @ current consumption rate of 200 lbs. milk per person in U.S., an average VT cow provides enough fluid milk for 100 people. If it can be assumed that grass-based cows with home-grown grain produces only 12,000 lbs. milk/year, that would produce enough fluid milk for 60 persons/cow.

b. Current consumption rate of 31 lbs. cheese/person in U.S. - @ 8 lbs. fluid milk/lb. of cheese = 240 lbs. fluid milk/31 lbs. cheese/person. 200 lbs. milk for fluid consumption + 240 lbs. milk for cheese = 440 lbs. milk consumed/person in U.S. Assuming 500 lbs. milk/person for fluid, cheese and other dairy products, a 12,000 lb. production/cow would be sufficient for 24 people.

c. Assuming population for VT @ 630,000, we would need 26,250 dairy cows - about 100,000 Acres needed @ ca. 3.5-4.0 Acres/cow for pasture, hay/haylage and grain.

4. About 4000 Acres for eggs; Eggs - For 630,000 people, about 4000 Acres needed for grain for current consumption rate of 240 eggs/laying chicken/person (56 lbs. dry corn/270 sq. ft./per layer for 240 eggs)

5. About 40,000 Acres for wheat; Wheat for human consumption - there are currently ca. 600 Acres of wheat grown in Vermont - @ 60 lbs./Bu. & 40 Bu./Acre = 1.44 million lbs. or enough wheat for ca. 10,000 people 2 current consumption rate of 141 lbs./person in U.S.) Therefore, about 40,000 Acres needed for wheat.

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a. About 3600 Acres for misc. grains needed for 630,000 people 6. About 150,000 Acres for beef; Beef - @ 575 lbs. meat/steer and 67 lbs. beef

consumption/person/year in U.S., 8.6 persons/beef steer/2 A good pasture = 4.3 persons/A = 630,000 people/150,000 Acres

Total acreage needed for 630,000 people in VT - about 326,000-336,000 Acres Acreage needed for 65,000 people, for Central Vermont will include;

1. About 12,000 Acres for vegetables; @ 5,000-10,000 sq.ft./person with moderately intensive grown vegetables, (based on current consumption levels in U.S.)

2. About 100 Acres for fruit & berries; About 100 Acres needed for fruit & berries for 65,000 people - (based on current consumption levels in U.S.)

3. About 10,000 Acres for dairy; for 65,000 people. Vermont currently has 150,000 milk cows that produce some three billion pounds of milk per year = ca. 20,000 lbs./cow (enough milk & cheese for ca. 6.667 million people).

Root cellar, R. Czaplinski; Apricots in Vermont, and permaculture design; Ben Falk

Permaculture is an implemented mixed use of food, fuel, fish, and organic growing. It is this EDAP’s recommended model for long term sustainability. Permaculture polyculture recommends high yielding perennial tree crop additions to the agricultural system, including; shelter belts, orchards, coppice groves, and conservation land and forests for carbon sequestration and biodiversity and the promotion of wild foods and fertility. Working in compatibility with a Vermont working landscape. This can happen in a well designed master plan of multiple yields for various purposes, including enhancing and restoring wild life ecosystems, and creating long-term fertility. Following are some additional inclusions and ideas of Permaculture;

Grow orchards of chestnut, walnut, oak, black locust, butternut, and hazelnut.

Heritage grains, and wheat, rice, spelt, semolina, oats, barley, quinoa should be included in the plan and

grown.

We should have seed banks, regional nurseries for tree stocks, fruit, mushrooms, aquacultures, etc.

We should research what we can grow in the way of medicinal development.

As waste and recycling become more developed we should have protocols for greywater ecosystems,

composting toilets, and biomass composting.

Both Natural capital and social capital are integral to a post carbon society; including individual and

communal expertise, vision of our future, new labor and jobs is a green eco-economy with a local

financial system.

A Permaculture Food system is a gardening

system that mimics a woodland ecosystem but substitutes in edible trees, shrubs, perennials and annuals. Fruit and nut trees are the upper level, while below are berry shrubs, edible perennials and annuals. Companions or beneficial plants are included to attract insects for natural pest management while some plants are soil amenders providing nitrogen and mulch. Together they create relationships to form a garden ecosystem able to produce high yields of food with less maintenance.

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We must build long term fertility into the soils of the forests and agricultural land. Nitrogen fixing and

dynamic accumulating plantings and Dense Nutrient Mineral additions will build soil, bank carbon and

make the landscape a net carbon retainer; sequestering co2.

A permaculture sustainability ethos will enhance living ecosystems to produce abundance; not the minimum needed, but more abundance than we could imagine. In 20 years or so the tree crops and coppice groves in each town, will be yielding tons of produce and goods that can sustain thousands. The goal will be to return as much or more fertility back to land than we take out, as measured over many years and decades. Over time we should be able to reduce the need for excessive inputs to our ecosystems. (some text references from Ben Falk and

Whole Systems Design. http://www.wholesystemsdesign.com/what-we-do/

Section B2, Energy System

The imperative to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels is driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions with huge urgency, and also by the fact that we need to build energy security; The EDAP recommendation for CO2 emission reductions is 80% reductions by 2032 and 95% reductions by 2050.

To achieve a zero carbon Vermont; Transition Totnes and other researchers have found that by the year 2030 in order to meet energy needs, we need to be producing 50% of current usage through renewable energy, while reducing our energy demand by 50% of current usage.

To achieve this, a number of hurdles will have to be overcome. Arjun Makhijani in his book, Carbon Free Nuclear Free, estimates that we can reduce consumption by 50% through energy efficiency and energy conservation measures. In particular, this can be done through major improvements in insulation of buildings, energy efficiency, and substantial reductions in use of individual transport. Other measures such as rationing may be applied by the government to curb demand in line with supply problems as they arise. We will see highly volatile oil prices, interruptions to supply, geopolitics shifting increasingly in favour of those who still hold energy reserves, sharply rising fuel poverty, and, most probably, blackouts and rationing.

With focus, determination and an honest assessment of our situation, these are all avoidable. While climate change says we should break our oil addiction, peak oil says we will have no choice in the matter.

With all that, the energy goal and vision for 2032 can be that energy growth can take place at a slow manageable pace; Makhijani says energy reductions should be 2+% per year, while energy growth should be 1% year for a net energy reduction of up to 2% per year minimum, until benchmarks are met. Over the next 20 years, we will have to successfully reduce our energy consumption by 50%, and generate the other 50%

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from number of different renewable technologies. The community will have to develop powerful drivers in the installation of sufficient renewables, to invite the community to invest in them, and to share in the return. Renewable energy must become not only something people want for environmental and energy security reasons, but also because they accrue a financial return from them. Energy analysis There are 3 major domains or sectors of energy use; electricity generation, transportation, and space heating. Energy discussions can become confusing, mixing electrical benchmarks with heating, shelter, and transportation energy benchmarks. For this EDAP, the analysis of electrical energy is covered in this section, followed by sections on Transportation, Heating, and Shelter.

1. Energy use Electricity generation (approximates) ........................... 36% 2. Energy use Buildings................................. .......30% 3. Energy Use Transportation........................33%

Energy Efficiency, Energy Conservation and Lifestyle changes It is clear that to generate enough energy to meet current energy demand will require an investment over many years. Reducing our energy demand by conservation methods and by investing in energy efficiency is an essential prerequisite to introducing renewable energy and will have a double benefit: 1) A once off investment in energy efficiency will continue to save money indefinitely, and 2) This will reduce the capital investment needed for renewable energy infrastructure. Energy efficiency and energy conservation covers a very wide range of measures from fitting a condensing boiler, to switching off a light, to building smaller homes. It is estimated that 10% of all energy could be saved by simply changing our behaviour and switching off unwanted appliances. Space heating is by far the biggest use of domestic energy and this is where the best possibilities of energy efficiency occur. 58% of energy can be saved through simple measures applying energy efficiency, the main one being good insulation. Also, thermostats could be lowered from the temperatures recommended by the World health Organization, which are 21 degrees C (69.8F) in the living room and 18 degrees C (64.4F) in other occupied rooms. Any approach that strategically navigates our way out of our energy predicament must be based on the following principles;

Major reduction in use of fossil fuel based energy at all levels of society, and a clear understanding and awareness of how energy is used, with the recognition of the vulnerability of conventional energy supplies

Development and provision of renewable energy supplies must be prioritised and brought on stream. High priority for investment of time and finance in energy efficiency, and severe reduction in use of

products with high embodied energy. For instance, it is possible to design homes with available technology and architectural concepts that use just one-tenth the energy per square foot as is typical at present. Similar economies are possible in personal vehicles and in the commercial sector. The history of development shows that the norms for the “good life” are set by the wealthy. In that context, it appears necessary to develop the notion of “enough.” Rather, research shows that once poverty has been overcome, money seems to make little difference to happiness.

Electric Energy from renewable supplies Electricity is currently produced in Vermont using 38% nuclear; 1% oil, 30% HQ (Hydro Quebec), 11% Vt. Hydro, 17% grid system and 2% renewable (mainly methane). Non HQ sourced renewable energy is beginning to grow but in 2010 contributed just 12%. 85% is either nuclear or out of state generated. In 2010 42% of Vermont’s electric energy supply came from renewable sources, but much of that came from Hydro Quebec. Renewable energy is an integral part of the Government's longer-term aim of reducing CO2

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emissions by 80% by 2050, a figure now matched by the G8 countries but not quite adequate. In 2012 the State of Vermont set a target of 95% of electricity supply from renewable energy by 2050. Renewable energy supplies can be captured from: Solar, Wind, Hydro, Biomass, Waste organic material. We can also harness additional energy by using technology such as heat pumps to crank up supplies we are already using. We need to question whether we can practically or realistically expect the electricity supply to be available 100% of the time on the national grid, or from out of state sources. There is an ongoing debate at the time of writing that there could be an upper limit to the amount of renewable energy supplies the National

Grid could accommodate, however experience from Germany suggests 100% is possible. This EDAP’s recommendation is a balanced mix of renewable energy resources as shown In the graphic pie charts. The solar component is 18%, and the wind component is 19% by 2032. Hydro Quebec can be slowly reduced as Vermont hydro comes online.

Central Vermont Electric use;

1. Central Vermont electric use per year approx.550GWh/y. 2. Reduce electric demand by 25%; use is now, in 2022, 415GWh/y 3. Using mix chart for 2022 with wind as 8% of 415 G; then the wind component is 32gwh/y. One

Searsburg wind group of 11, 130ft tall, turbines generates about 13GWh/y. 50, 100kw (120ft tall) farm, business, school and community turbines will generate; 8.75GWh/y. Combined they achieve about two-thirds the wind component. See wind scenarios, p.52, for further scenario development.

4. Solar at 7% will need to generate 29GWh/y. 7,000 homes and 3,000 businesses with avg. 3kw solar PV system will generate; 35GWh/y. See solar scenarios p 15.

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a

Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont

Energy Graphics

Community

cooperation

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont b

Table 1 Graphics

55

Sustainable Food system timeline

10 year EDAP timeframe

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont c

Energy Mix Graphic

Climate Change graphic

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14

Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont

Vermont Electric data; the Vermont Comprehensive Energy plan shows electric generation sources as projected for 2025 is 55% big-out-of-state hydro and NE grid. It also has a large component of biomass and a very small component of solar. In addition there are only modest electric reductions; energy is generated at current use levels. There about 30,000 households in Central Vermont, served by these Utility Co’s.Scenarios; What does this mean for Central Vermont electric generation if we want a sustainable renewable system? GMP will replace Vt. Yankee with New England grid power until their portfolio of wind, biomass and more hydro comes along over 20-40 years. Washington Coop will maintain Hydro Quebec power for the long future. None of the utilities have plans for expanded solar pv systems. Again, most power will come from out of state. Regarding ridgeline wind in Vermont. We acknowledge the community controversy over large wind units on Vermont ridgelines. The Transition method seeks to find solutions which serve humans and nature alike. Strong feelings on both sides of the issue are well publicized. The EDAP committee’s approach is to first assess the data of a wind component of the electric generation, renewable energy mix. This data will give us important information to assess wind. As described above, and on p.16, from 1/3 to 2/3 of the wind component of the renewable energy mix can be achieved for Central Vermont by the scenario suggestions on p. 16. The actual data shows that wind turbines can play a role in a renewable energy mix. We will not have wind turbines on every kilometer of ridgeline, on the contrary – just the opposite. We need not have wind turbines that exceed 225 ft, meaning, we can ban anything taller. We need not be on the highest ridgelines; we can designate the altitude maximum we wish.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 15

Solar Energy

Solar Scenario; The solar component of the renewable energy mix for 2022 is 7% of 415Gwh/y, is 29Gwh/y. One scenario already mentioned suggests 7,000 residential 3kw pv systems and 3,000 kw pv systems by businesses. This will generate 35Gwh/y or an additional 6Gwh/y. 7,000 residential installations is about 23% of housing units in Central Vermont.

A 3kw residential systems approximate cost is $20,000 less State and Federal programs, which means the cost drops $5,000-8,000.

Commercial solar can be Utility installed solar pv in parking lots at shopping malls, Shaws, Big Lots, and leased farmland. Power generated from this scenario is yet to be analyzed.

3kw solar PV array, Calais, Vt.

TTM member

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 16

Wind Scenarios: (For a comment on the controversy surrounding ridgeline wind in Vermont, see page 14).

1. Scenario 1; The wind component of the EDAP’s energy mix is 8% by 2022. In this scenario a Searsburg wind group (11 towers, 130ft tall) plus 50, 100kw community wind turbines meets about 2/3 the wind component of the renewable electric mix. At least half of the 100kw turbines can could be located at existing ski slopes, creating minimal environmental impact. How would we achieve the remainder of the 32Gwh/y needed? One possibility is the statewide wind grid.

2. Scenario 2; 2 wind groups of 6, 1Mw size wind turbines (225ft tall) can generate about 26Gwh/y or

80% of wind component for central Vermont. (Installation not to exceed 2,500ft elevation).

3. Scenario 3; If we don’t want any ridgeline wind

(one option is to reduce the wind component to less than

8%) then we would need 100, 100kw turbines to

generate 17.5Gwh/y. We would also need about 3000

residential sized, 3kw wind turbines or about 10% or

Central Vermont residences. These will yield an additional

14Gwh/y, both totaling about 32Gwh/y. These numbers

assume suitable wind sites, which in reality is not at all

guaranteed. This scenario encourages a proliferation of

small wind at homes, homesteads, farms, and businesses.

This EDAP recommends a combination of 1 or 2

utility ridgeline wind groups capped at 66% of

the wind component and the remainder generated

by the 100kw wind turbines, and State-grid wind,

achieved with state funding help.

Wind turbines: 1. Community, neighborhood, business, farm or school 100kw wind turbine, as shown above. 120ft tall. 2. .5Mw megawatt turbine. 130ft tall. (Searsburg). 3. 1Mw (megawatt) turbine. 225ft tall. 4. 2Mw turbine 400+ft tall. (Lowell)

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 17

Section B2a, Transportation, (including non-automobile solutions and energy efficient mobile solutions)

Vision, benchmarks;

As the key transportation benchmark this EDAP suggests reducing the current, excessive, auto fleet by up to

50% by 2032; and reducing miles driven and energy used in the car fleet by up to 33-50% by 2032.

Non automobile solutions:

Transition Vermont believes that lifestyle choices of driving less and using transport methods differently can

reduce fuel use more quickly and more dramatically than any technological change in the vehicles we drive.

The choice to live in the same town where you work has a dramatic effect on fossil fuel use.

1. The average Vermonter has a 21 minute commute to work and drives alone. Carpooling can be as

effective as increasing the gas

mileage by 4 or 5 times. In addition

to increasing mileage per person,

productivity increases as well. To

help facilitate car-pooling, park-n-ride

lots are needed. These lots can also

be places to conveniently connect to

public transportation.

2. Another lifestyle choice is to own a

vehicle. In many communities,

walking, biking, and public

transportation are a viable option.

For times when a vehicle becomes

necessary, car-sharing is sometimes

available. Carsharevt, located in

Burlington, is dedicated to reducing

the number of cars on the road. This EDAP is suggesting that only a reduced auto fleet can be

sustainable.

3. The choice of technology for public transportation is not as important as the utilization of public

transportation. For most communities in Vermont, fossil fuel powered buses are the only practical

mode of transportation. The most effective method of reducing the amount of fuel use per passenger

is to increase the number of passengers on the bus, (after, first, trying to reduce the need for travel).

Auto Transportation data (This data is from Arjun Makhijani’s book, Carbon-free and Nuclear-free); “Personal (light duty) vehicles and trucks are nearly four-fifths of the total transportation energy used. The problem of poor efficiency of personal passenger vehicles arises from a combination of preferences for large vehicles on the part of consumers and aggressive marketing of such vehicles by manufacturers, seeking maximum profits. With the right incentives, electric cars will become the norm in a reasonable time – twenty to thirty years. In the interim, we assume

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 18

that plug-in hybrids will take a significant share of the institutional and commercial markets, due to rising efficiency requirements, cost of fuels, and government and corporate procurement of advanced vehicles.

Cars that run on gasoline or diesel alone with efficiencies up to 60 miles per gallon that meet other safety and environmental standards, are available on the market today (including Smart car diesel @ 71mpg; Prius hybrid @ 56-68mpg; and the Chevy volt electric @ 41mpg). Plug-in hybrids can get 70 to 100 miles per gallon of liquid fuel. Gradual changes in new vehicle efficiency to 40 miles per gallon by 2020 and continued steady improvements after that to just under 75 miles per gallon by 2050. We envision that plug-in hybrids will first be introduced on a large-scale, followed by all-electric vehicles in about 20 years. Electricity provides the greatest flexibility in energy supply. Use of solar and wind energy to charge plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles will greatly reduce waste of energy and increase transportation efficiency. With an efficiency of 5 miles per kWh, which is possible today, the use of solar or wind energy would yield an equivalent “well-to-wheels” efficiency of about 150 miles per gallon. This can be doubled in the coming decades. Electricity for transportation greatly reduces fuel cost, especially if the charging is mostly done off-peak. New battery technology permits vehicle-to-grid (V2G) support for renewable energy sources at nearly zero-marginal cost in terms of battery wear. This makes a V2G supported grid much more feasible and obviates the need for costly solar-wind storage technologies. Initial uses of electricity are mainly for plug-in hybrids. The high efficiency of electric cars means that a relatively small amount of electricity can replace a much larger amount of gasoline.”

Business/workday Transport

System

1. Major routes, 100, 2, 12, 14, 305,

and county road, tend toward

Montpelier & Barre. Towns along

main routes can invest in

transport; for example biodiesel

minibuses that keep business

hours schedule much like schools

have bus schedules.

2. Business hours can be

coordinated in city areas like

Montpelier & Barre to have

common work hours, etc. while

Commerce and shoppers can key

into these schedules.

Business

minibus on

Plainfield route

Travel by bike

LSV, low-speed

vehicle, street legal

golf cart

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 19

Section B2b, Heating, and Biomass

“Residential use of energy is dominated by space heating, water heating, and space cooling (air conditioning). On the basis of delivered energy, space heating, water heating, and space cooling combined dominate residential energy use, accounting for 71 percent of it. A great deal of the delivered energy used for space heating is wasted at the point of use. The same is true of water heating, since very high quality sources of energy, like natural gas and electricity, are used to produce hot water at very low temperatures. Most of the potential of the energy to do work is wasted when it is used for low temperature applications, for which other approaches such as

solar water heating, are much more efficient. The performance of the average building in the residential and commercial sector can be classified as dismal compared to available technology and design concepts. The main design components and concepts have been known for some time: Excellent insulation; optimal thermal mass designed for the climate; windows of sufficient area that let in heat and light in the winter, preferentially south facing (passive solar), and can be shaded in the summer if necessary; very efficient lighting, appliances, and space heating and cooling systems. Wall Insulation; with an R-value greater than 25; and a solar water heating system that is added to such features, makes most of the fuel requirements of residential buildings substantially less. A 3 kilowatt solar PV system would be sufficient to convert this type of eco-house to a zero net energy system. In that case, total energy would be reduced by a factor of 13 compared to the present residential average. Backfitting, or retrofitting, existing homes is generally more complex than incorporating energy efficiencies in new buildings at the time of construction. Nonetheless it has been shown that many backfits can save energy and money when carried out properly. Backfits had short payback times. The shortest was one year – associated with cleaning refrigerator coils. Other measures – low flow showers, compact fluorescent lighting, and return duct sealing had payback times between 3.3 and 3.7 years. Homes backfitted wit a solar water heater, yielded the largest energy savings – 1,960 kilowatt hours per year. The payback time was estimated at 10.2 years.” (Makhijani, Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free). Biomass will be an important resource of the future. Our forests are a precious resource, providing us with priceless gifts including clean air and water, flooding and erosion control, fish and wildlife habitat, recreation and tourism dollars, and ongoing carbon sequestration. Yet, according to a 2011 study from Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, (http://www.ecostudies.org/report_biomass_2011.pdf p. 19) 67% of net annual growth is being logged in Vermont's forests, and if inaccessible areas are accounted for, Vermont is already pushing the

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 20

limit for "sustainable" logging. Biomass power facilities are already cutting and burning whole trees and this trend will only expand with the construction of new facilities Vermont already has 2 large scale biomass power facilities, with at least two more proposed for the state. Biomass power is only 20-25% efficient, effectively wasting 3 out of 4 trees burned. Very large amounts of wood are required: roughly 13,000 tons per year per megawatt of electricity generation. Biomass incineration emits higher levels of asthma-causing Particulate Matter, carcinogenic Volatile Organic Compounds and climate-changing Carbon Dioxide than a coal plant. The McNeil generating station in Burlington is Vermont's leading source of air pollution. Vermont has the highest level of asthma-related Emergency Room admissions of any state, and Rutland has the highest rate of asthma of any city in the U.S. (http://ephtracking.cdc.gov/docs/State_Tracking_2011_VT.pdf ) It is therefore important to control land and health impacts of large scale biomass. In addition, with regard to home wood biomass stoves it necessary to consider and make adjustments to those emission problems. While very efficient wood heating can reasonably expand in Vermont, it should do so without increasing the current level of logging in the state. The main thrust for renewable energy is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases to help curb climate change. Smokestack carbon dioxide emissions from burning wood are higher than from coal burning, and will not be re-sequestered by new forest growth for at least several decades up to a century or longer. Meaning, we have a very delicate balance we have to achieve amidst a hard impact endeavor like collecting biomass from forests. More research on how a balance is achieved between a working landscape endeavor and the absolute necessity to sequester carbon, provide wild lands for future generations, and restore ecosystem health, is of utmost importance for Central Vermont and all of Vermont. Below, are a few further considerations on biomass, and one scenario of providing 75% of residential heat through biomass.

Biomass analysis Cont. (hard caps can be defined in EDAP phase 2);

Establish hard land caps for Electric production, residential fuel, and commercial use of

landscape.

Establish conservation protocols and Wild Lands minimum.

Biomass heating scenario; 4 cords of firewood or 8 tons of biomass per

household per year (1 cord is almost 2 tons in weight). Sustainably managed forests can

generate 1.25 tons of biomass per acre per year (or ½ to 1 cord per acre); therefore

assuming biomass had to supply 75% of heat that means, 22,000 households x 8 tons

need 176,000 tons. This requires about 140,000 acres, or working about 35% of the

present forested land. This might be reduced by planting coppice groves (500 acres of

high yielding coppice groves for each town) doubling or quadrupling yield.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 21

Section B3, Shelter; Vision and energy conservation.

(Note; Vermont housing units total about 170,000 units, and Central Vermont has about 30,000).

Housing/shelter domain uses 30% of total energy society uses, and therefore must be addressed.

The EDAP overall goal is to reduce all energy use 25% by 2022, and 50% by 2032.

The whole population must participate in this across the 4 levels of society; Individuals, Community,

Commercial, and governments.

Several types of energy reduction methods are described in this shelter section including

weatherization, and retrofits; multiple person households, and reducing thermostat levels. An energy

conservation strategy is key; reducing the size of our buildings, using alternative methods for cooking

our food (wood cookstoves), and heating our water, for example.

As we conserve, and reduce our energy need, renewable energy sources can act as alternatives and controls to our energy use. Solar thermal energy reduces the fossil fuel energy needed for hot water and space heating. Solar photovoltaic reduces our reliance on utility companies for electricity, and caps our electric demand because we use-what-we-can- afford solar to provide. A self-limiting gage for our electric use. Root cellars reduce energy cost of refrigeration.

The EDAP recommends retrofit buildings to have an R value of 36-40 by 20% of populace by 2022.

The EDAP recommends new construction meet insulation standards of R value 40-60. Existing Data for Homes in Montpelier

66% heated by fuel oil; 14% heated by propane; 15% heated w/ electric; and, 3% heated w/ wood.

17% weatherized; costing $7,500, while saving 25%.

Other factors: Montpelier and Barre have public transportation, centralized water, and higher density than

rural Central Vermont, while rural land owners use drilled wells.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 22

Conventional Sustainable Development solutions

encourage higher density with incentives:

One More Home Program, encouraging extra apartments

in home.

Housing Trust Fund for affordable housing.

PACE Program, provides financial incentives, and

incentives for pellet stoves, retrofit, and renewable energy

installations.

Transition Towns EDAP model solutions:

Cultural and lifestyle changes like working from home.

Live in town where you work.

House share.

Turn down thermostat.

Encourage government policy of incentives for more

people per household.

Encourage government policy to lower thermostat in

public buildings.

EDAP recommendations for Central Vermont:

Set home thermostat down 10 degrees. This can create as

much savings in heating fuel as a typical retrofit.

House sharing and other energy savings from lifestyle

changes can lead to as much as an 83% reduced energy

use. This is the goal of the Swiss 2000 watt Society (global

average energy use/person; 2000watts per hour per day).

The avg. USA use is 12,000 watts per person. The goal is to

reduce total energy use including transportation down to

2,000 watts/h/day. Heating reductions can happen

effectively through multiple person households, of 5 or

more.

Revise building codes to Passive-house standards.

Encourage, natural, recycled, and locally sourced building

materials.

Learn and share knowledge of natural building and eco-

house building techniques.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 23

Section C, Heart of Transition; cooperation and lifestyle

This section looks at community cooperation and lifestyle changes that we should consider essential to a healthy and possible transition to a post carbon society. Transition to a post carbon society may go through adjusting, growing, maturing, and adapting pains. All segments of society are included in the Transition Town EDAP planning, including groups of differing politics, economic brackets, and ages. To create a foundation of guiding principles this EDAP endorses the Earth Charter for it emphasis on diversity, inclusiveness, and wellbeing for all; including species and ecosystems. It is a Fairshares approach, a socially equitable approach, specifically including disadvantaged persons, and the poor in all phases of planning.

Transition is hard for anyone as individuals, but becomes easier and doable when all levels of society participate including individuals, community groups, the commercial sector, and the government sector. Social transition looks at community transition, its psychology, its conflicts, its stories, its opportunities, its inclusions, its bliss. It is an inclusion of all-groups, as an integral part of the greater transition dialogue that we don’t always have, as we plant our gardens or put up solar panels.

Transitioning within a diverse society means we need to develop methods that helps individuals and groups of people who have diverse perspectives and different worldviews to find some common ground, consensus, and where all can be heard. To heal our planet we must have a healthy psychology, healthy communities, and healthy worldviews. We must develop the means to resolve differences of opinion, and cultural group conflict by resolving and transforming our differences peacefully. Society is moving toward a maturing process or toward collapse, which would be a destructive path for far too many people.

Can differing overlapping worldviews and transition scenario proposals coexist? Yes, by learning to engage an inclusive global wisdom so communities can continue to gain psychological health, grow and transition in spite of, and simultaneous to, the oncoming struggle and storm. We will have to find a way to grow and flourish in spite of struggle by engaging in community cooperation. In light of this Cultural Transition is suggested as a forum for community members to explore some of the following:

1. Develop overview of Fair Shares approach, compassion and inclusion of all; fair shares being the Transition term for social and climate justice. 2. Have more CR (consciousness raising) Education on Resilience and Sustainability. 3. Have Transition dialogue and Pot-luck gatherings. 4. Include existing institutions and educate them, like local legislators. 5. Learn the psychology of transition, for example; emotions may come up when you think about fossil fuel depletion, climate change and economic instability? Fears regarding water and food shortages, capitalist society, climate cover up, and exclusions based on class or race, will have to be dealt with, and so on.

Lifestyle model

The Transition Town and EDAP model recognize that transition to a post carbon society involves both infrastructure changes, as well as personal and cultural adjustments and adaptations – both psychologically, and in how we live, our lifestyle. The goal is to live well and cooperatively while reducing our energy needs. This section of the EDAP is a quick overview with some graphic snapshots of suggestions for reducing our energy needs through lifestyle changes, community dialogue, and cooperation. The EDAP group thought it important to present the information we have heard from many people now.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 24

Lifestyle change selections

Home retrofit

Drive less, car share

Solar PV, solar therm.

Walk, bike Community cooperation

Reduce energy demand 50%

Extended family homes

Local food Root Cellars & Greenhouses

3 Energy Reduction Scenarios follow; We all must conserve and reduce our energy consumption. What

follows are 3 levels of energy reduction scenarios that are recommended to achieve a resilient community.

Taken together they can include and involve as much as 75% of the populace. Shown are rough outlines of

a few aspects of these scenarios which will need to be more developed, however, the approach seems to be

a relevant one.

1) 50% energy reduction model; Individuals, Community, Commercial, and government Policy, (goal for 50% populace)

3kw solar pv and solar hot water and solar thermal

Passive house design

Efficient appliances

2) 83% energy reduction model; Individuals, Community, Commercial, and government

incentives, (goal for 17% of populace).

2,000 watt society (per hour per day) (17,520kwh/y all energy (current world avg.)) (USA uses

12,000watts). Achieved over a 20+ year period “without lowering our standard of living.”

2kw solar pv and solar hot water and solar thermal.

Super insulated passive house, and thermostat at 66 degrees

Multiple occupant dwelling

Drive < 7000 miles/y, no flying.

Wood cook stove, for cooking food, and wood biomass heat.

Super efficient refrigerator

3) 98% energy reduction model; Individuals, (goal 5% of populace)

1kw solar pv, solar hot water, solar thermal thermostat at 64 degrees.

Super insulated passive house with

Multiple occupant dwelling

Do not own a car

Solar thermal heat with biomass. Wood heat.

Wood cook stove and cook 1/3 of food by solar oven.

Root cellar and greenhouse, and grow 80% of own food.

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Energy Descent Action Plan, EDAP, for Central Vermont 25

Narrative envisioning as demonstrated in the long version of the EDAP Conclusions drawn from the presentation of the various narrative envisioning examples described in the long

version EDAP: This EDAP, (short version), presents only a few examples on how to envision and think about how we can

achieve a resilient and sustainable community. The question becomes, what conclusions can we draw from

these examples. For example, if we suggest towns plant nut tree orchards, further analysis would be needed to

determine how many acres of nut tree groves are needed in Central Vermont for sustainability. Further analysis

is needed to flesh out these examples and implement them into the fabric of our community through individual

and community initiatives, town plans, and government policies. What we do know is the following:

The whole population of Central Vermont must participate.

70% of the population must show significant transition in energy reductions in gradual steps over 10 and 20

years as described in the content of this EDAP.

Participation must be from all levels of society, including Individuals, Communities, Commercial and

Businesses, and governments policy and financial incentives.

Following are a few examples that recap the spirit of the EDAP and the narrative example method of envisioning

the future we wish to see:

Individual(s) in a sustainable Food system: 2013 – Central Vermont regional effort to establish Root Cellars in 30% of households gets off to an enthusiastic start with exhibitions on the State House lawn in June of 2013, with support from the State legislature. Individuals in a Sustainable Shelter /System with Government Policy Support: 2015 ; 12 Central Vermont Towns endorse reduced energy protocols for high energy standards for all buildings, to reduce household energy use by 50% by 2030. Community in a Sustainable Energy System: 2016; Central Vermont towns develop a collaborative plan with the State of Vermont for the installation of 100kw wind turbines at schools, farms, businesses, neighborhoods, and ... Commercial enterprise in a Sustainable Energy System: 2015; Electric utility companies create incentives that strongly encourage installations of solar , PV and thermal, on households.

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Acknowledgement; Transition Town Montpelier and the Transition Vermont EDAP Committee acknowledges

and sincerely thanks the EDAP committee members who have participated in this work. Members names can be

seen at this Transition Vermont web page;

http://transitionvermont.ning.com/group/transitionvermontedapcommittee?commentId=2432395%3AComment

%3A43166

Some text and formatting is based on the Totnes, England Transition Initiative EDAP, in the book, Transition in

Action.

Where do we go from Here

This section of the EDAP suggests where the Transition community needs to go during the next phase of the EDAP work. This EDAP is a start of a vision with goals and what we need to do to get there. How we get there is the next step called implementation. For the Transition community we recommend establishing:

1. Teams that will first expose the EDAP and its ideas to the wider community in a wide ranging

effort over the next 3 years, including to the media and at Town meetings.

2. Form a task force-like team to hammer out specifics on how to engage the Central Vermont

home/farm owner, the community, the businesses, and the local and state governments.

3. Form a quick response team that can participate and reply to any planning discussions in the

media or in government and town circles – wherever. To point out the EDAP position and how

the plan being talked about or getting proposed is flawed in some way and how the EDAP

suggests a better way.

4. Develop Transition database for incoming information from the public.

5. Develop EDAP newsletter for Transition members and towns in Central Vermont.

6. Choose narrative examples as first steps on what to implement.

7. Interact with Central Vermont Planning Commission.

8. Political Dialogue with State legislatures, especially those from Central Vermont.

9. Eco-economic development of model.

10. Social change development of model.

11. Partnership development.

12. Develop resilience indicators, which are ways and metrics to measure how the community is doing

in reaching goals established.

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INFORMATION ABOUT CENTRAL VERMONT USED IN THE EDAP WORK Central Vermont lies in the Winooski Valley river basin ecosystem, with major sub-basin branches like Mad River and the Winooski North Branch flowing into it. The Winooski River flows west to Lake Champlain. It is a northern forest region with deep snows, very cold winters, wet springs and mild summers. Part of the Green Mountain range with Camels

Hump forms the western border with spurs off it like the Worcester Mountain range. Several of the 10 or so mountain ranges above 2,500 feet are state preserves.

EDAP synopsis; This EDAP is a step, both comprehensive yet balanced, to Central Vermont sustainability. While other

plans, currently in the public domain, emphasize future projected energy demand along present economic growth trends,

like for electricity and transportation, this plan presents a balanced, pragmatic view of what we can achieve in a post

fossil fuel society. It’s emphasis is on reducing the energy demand while having the remaining energy need be met by

renewable resources. This plan:

1. Engages all levels of society including the individual, community, commercial and government sectors.

2. Emphasizes energy reductions while maintaining modest economic growth (in a “green” economic system)

according to the Makhijani economic/efficiency principle; “Energy growth can take place at a slow manageable

pace; Energy reductions should be 2+% per year, while energy growth should be 1% year for a net energy reduction

of about 1+% per year minimum.”

3. Emphasizes a balanced renewable energy mix with wind energy as proportional to other renewable resources –

not dominant. Ridgeline wind can be a modest component to the overall wind component of the total energy mix.

Therefore, ridgeline wind is capped and controlled as a part of a sustainable energy mix. (see p 16).

4. Emphasizes a change in how transportation works. It recommends very doable reductions in the car fleet and in

miles driven with new emphasis on non-auto solutions. (see p 17).

5. Emphasizes building improvements so sustainable, renewable biomass, and solar thermal heating can play a big

role in heating.

6. Emphasizes community participation and cooperation to implement the features of the plan.

While other plans emphasize specific renewable energy resources like ridgeline wind, or try to meet all energy

needs as currently projected, or swings to the other extreme by suggesting Vermont achieves 100% sustainability

by 2020; this plan is a considered, logical and sober exploration for reducing our energy needs, and achieving a

sustainable society that provides well being for people and ecosystems.

EDAP Vision; Transition Towns is a new-society movement where sustainability and cooperation are key.

Themes emphasized in this plan:

Resilience - An ability to withstand shocks Renaissance - Renewed connection to biosphere and living well in healthy ecosystems.

Restoration - Restoring ecosystems health and balance

Central Vermont

Towns.....................................23 Towns

Population..............................65,000 people

Housing units.........................30,000 units