Top Banner
Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval host of Talkline Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio Network
51

to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Sep 29, 2020

Download

Documents

dariahiddleston
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval host of TalklineHoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio Network

Page 2: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

The Changing Face of W t Vi i i P litiWest Virginia Politics 

Dems control both WV chambers since 1930 ‘32 election WV one of 42 states for FDR32 election WV one of 42 states for FDRDems Rule! 1932‐2004, 129 of 139 terms for statewide office won by Demsstatewide office won by Dems

Exceptions: Arch Moore, Cecil Underwood, Cl  B di t  Cleve Benedict. 

WV is Big Blue 

Page 3: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

2000 Election George Bush Al Gore 

Page 4: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

President HerbertHerbert Hoover 

h lThe last time a non‐incumbent Republican pcarried WV in a Presidential Race before Race before 2000 was 1928. 

Page 5: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Buck Harless and George Bush 

The Southern West Virginia industrialist industrialist decides he wants to help wants to help Bush try to win the election. 

Page 6: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Buck’s a Pioneer1996 WV raises $22,000 for Bob Dole2000 Harless pledges to raise $100 0002000 Harless pledges to raise $100,000Bush people set his goal at $35,000Harless raises  $275,000“Well  what do you know?” Well, what do you know?Bush starts paying attention to WV

Page 7: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

NRA President h lCharleton

Heston

“It gave those ‘olboys chills.”  State Senator Shirley Love 

Page 8: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Bush Wins WVBush wins Raleigh by 1,500 votesUMWA: “Stay home.”UMWA:  Stay home.Bush loses southern WV 2‐1 instead of 3‐1 or 4‐14‐1

Bush carries WV 52‐46, by 40,000 votesh l lBush gets WV 5 electoral votes

Page 9: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

HangingHanging chads

Florida vote controversy leaves 2000 election undecided 

Page 10: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

WV decides the electionWV decides the election 

270 electoral votes needed to winBush 271 w/WV and Florida. Gore 267Bush 271 w/WV and Florida. Gore 267 If Gore had carried WV with its 5 electoral votes he would have 272 without Floridavotes he would have 272 without Florida

The GOP nominee for President has carried WV i   h  f  l ti   i  WV in each of elections since 2000

Page 11: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Robert C. Byrd Live boy  dead •Live boy, dead woman•Top of the ticket Top of the ticket leader with down‐ballot strength•June 28, 2010•Democratic bench weakness

Page 12: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Party registration shifts 1994 65% of WV voters registered Democratic 2004 58% of WV voters registered Democratic 2012 52% of WV voters registered Democratic 2014 49.9% of WV Voters registered Democratic4 49 9 g GOP Chair Conrad Lucas: “This is a really historic day for our state and our party.” 

2016 46% of WV Voters registered Democratic

Page 13: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

WV Voter Registration Trends 

60%

70%

40%

50%

Dem

20%

30% RepubIndep

0%

10%

0%1994 2004 2012 2014

Page 14: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

But wait a minute… Dems hold 577,000 to 379,000 advantage Dem majority in 43 of 55 counties GOP % registration has stayed the same, just below 30%

1994 39,000 independent voters Today 257,576 independent voters, 21%Why pick a party? 

Page 15: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Epic 2012 Primary showdown 

Page 16: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Obama wins Primary, but… 2012 Primary Election: Obama 106,000 and Keith Judd with 72 000Keith Judd with 72,000

“I voted against Obama,” said ,electrician Ronnie BrownOb  l    Cli   Obama lost to Clinton by 41 points in 2008 Primary Primary 

Page 17: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

National Dem leftward leanEPA rules and mine permit rules damage coal industryy

UMWA President Cecil Roberts: “National Democratic Party has forgotten about men Democratic Party has forgotten about men and women who take a shower at the end of the workday.”the workday.

Obamacare unpopular in WV

Page 18: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

WV Dems as Sisyphus in 2014

Page 19: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

WV 1st Congressional DistrictDavid McKinley  64% Glen Gainer 36%

Page 20: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

WV 2nd Congressional DistrictAlex Mooney 47% Nick Casey 44%

Page 21: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

WV 3rd Congressional DistrictEvan Jenkins 55% Nick Rahall 45%

Page 22: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

U.S. Senate Shelley Moore Capito 62% Natalie Tennant 35%

Page 23: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

WV Legislature flipsHouse: GOP picks up 17 seats… 47‐53 to 64‐363

Senate: 10‐24 to 17‐17Dem  Sen  Daniel Hall switches parties  Dem. Sen. Daniel Hall switches parties, giving Dems 18‐16 advantage in Senate. 

Bill C l   l t d S t  P id t  Ti  Bill Cole elected Senate President, Tim Armstead elected House Speaker 

Page 24: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

The 15 Year TransitionGOP Presidential nominee carries WVGOP holds all three Congressional GOP holds all three Congressional seatsGOP has first U.S. Senator since 1958GOP controls both House and Senate GOP controls both House and Senate for first time since 1930L    D   h i  h lLosses put Dems on their heals

Page 25: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

2012 ElectionElection Results 

Many experts say West Virginia’s gtransition was one of the last in a series of in a series of southern states going red. 

Page 26: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Is West Virginia Really Red? 2016 should tell us because… Presidential election  All three Congressional seats are up All House of Delegates seats, half the Senateg Governor  Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General, , y , y ,Auditor

Local races 

Page 27: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Ji J i Bill C lJim Justice vs. Bill ColeSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll (May)

Justice 52% Cole 34%

Page 28: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Preference for WV Legislative ControlSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll

Democrat, 38%

Not Sure, 18%

e oc at, 38%

Republican, %44%

Page 29: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Senator Joe Manchin 

•47% Approve 47 pp•37% Disapprove

%   S•16% Not Sure•Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll

Page 30: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Senator Shelley Moore Capito 

53% Approve26% disapprove21% not Sure21% not SureSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll 

Page 31: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Governor EarlGovernor Earl Ray Tomblin 

47% Approve47% Approve32% Disapprove 21% Not SureSource: Metronews West Virginia Poll 

Page 32: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

PresidentPresident Barack Obama 

24% Approve71% Disapprove5% Not Sure 5% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll 

Page 33: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Right Track or Wrong Track?

Page 34: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Metronews West Virginia Poll byMetronews West Virginia Poll by Repass Research  28% WV headed in right direction 56% WV headed in wrong direction56% WV headed in wrong direction 15% Not sureB tt  if WV h  GOP   D     t G ?Better if WV has GOP or Dem as next Gov?34% Democrat37% Republican29% Not Sure 9% Not Su e

Page 35: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

What does itWhat does it all mean?•Blue to redBlue to red•Leftward lean by national Demshurts WV Demshurts WV Dems•Dems need to regain gmomentum•Republicans on short leash short leash •Past not prologue

Page 36: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Tight budgetbudget 

times in WV blGov. Tomblin: 

“This was one of the most challenging budget years I’ve dealt with I ve dealt with in my 42 years of public 

”service.”

Page 37: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Tobacco Tax Increase (1st plan)Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 45 cents up to $1 per pack.cents up to $1 per pack.Fails in the House 45‐55. All but one of 36 House Democrats vote against the billgOnly 44 of the 64 House Republicans vote for the bill vote for the bill 

Page 38: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Tobacco Tax Increase (2nd plan) Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 65 cents to $1.20 per pack

Passes the House 63‐35 21 of 36 Democrats vote for the bill 42 of 64 Republicans vote for the bill Two month regular session and 17 day special session to pass tobacco tax increase

Page 39: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Tax/fee increase difficulty 27% of West Virginians smoke Let’s say 40% of them vote 120,000 West Virginians directly affected by the cigarette tax are actual voters out of 1.2 million registered voters

Great difficulty passing a tax increase even though i ’       l   i i   ff i     ll it’s on an unpopular activity affecting a small percentage of voters

Page 40: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

E b d ’Everybody’s Driving

•1.3 million private and 3 pcommercial vehicles registered in WV. (Source: FHA)M   hi l   h  •More vehicles than there are registered voters.•If 40% of vehicle •If 40% of vehicle owners  vote that’s 520,000 voters.•2012 Gov race Tomblin beat Maloney by 335,000 to 303,000.•Politicians are super 

iti  t     hi lsensitive to any vehicle‐related tax/fee increase.

Page 41: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Gas priceGas price obsession 

Do you know any product where the   i  i     h      average price is $30‐40 where we compare 

prices to the tenth of a cent?  

Page 42: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Benefits Received Principle“As much as possible, the taxpayer’s burden should reflect taxpayer s burden should reflect the benefit received from the Government.” 

Source: Governor’s Commission on Fair Taxation report. December 1999December 1999.

Page 43: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Increasing taxes or fees for anything

You see: “Just 80 cents a day buys ”day buys…They see: “My taxes are My taxes are going up…” 

Page 44: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

House of Delegates GOP 64 seat majority is splintered. Social issues, Common Core, Religious Freedom Restoration Act, raw milk.

A large chunk fundamentally opposed to ANY higher taxes or fees. 

Liberty Caucus influence. House Whip John O’Neal voted against leadership on 45 cent cigarette tax increase. 

Page 45: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Yogi gBerra

“Wh  “When you come to a fork to a fork in the road, road, take it.”

Page 46: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Who will be in charge?Governor Bill Cole?  Governor Jim Justice? 

Page 47: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Support or Oppose… Increase in motor vehicle sales tax 5% to 6%. Increase DMV fees.Maintaining tolls on turnpike. Building new state toll roads.g Increase in state gasoline tax. Statewide road bond issue. Empowering counties to raise taxes for roads. Restructuring WVDOT for efficiencies. Restructuring WVDOT for efficiencies. 

Page 48: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Restructure West Virginia Government

•“That’s the way we’ve always d  i ” done it.” •“Status quo” is Latin for “The mess we’re in.” Ronald Reagan.•What government must do  •What government must do, what government wants to do. (infrastructure, education, protect the public)•Decentralize authority.•Measure performance by outcomes, not inputs and outputs. S i  f   k b d •Strive for market‐based solutions, not bureaucratic solutions.•With declining revenue and rising costs  government has rising costs, government has to be more efficient. 

Page 49: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Convergence of ForcesPolitical  Economic 

Page 50: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Politics is the process by which power is distributed and d ddecisions are made.

Page 51: to the Contractors of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval ... · Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio

Questions? h k hThanks to the 

Contractors Association of West Virginia and Mike ClowserClowser.