Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project 1991-073-00.

Tim Copeland and June Johnson

Idaho Department of Fish & Game

Idaho Natural Production Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation ProjectMonitoring & Evaluation Project

1991-073-001991-073-00

• Project history

• Recent results

• Future directions

Today’s Agenda

The 1980’s

• Idaho Habitat Evaluation for Offsite Mitigation Record (1983-007-00)

• Focus on Idaho’s wild/natural spring/summer Chinook (Steelhead, too!)

• General monitoring– Parr & redd counts, relate to habitat

• Intensive monitoring– Survival & production at 2 sites

General Parr Monitoring

Chinook Adult Escapement

The 1990’s

• Salmon declines & ESA listing

• General monitoring continued

• Mitigation & habitat monitoring?

• Intensive studies changed to ESU

• Focus on downstream passage

• Project data proved very important

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Brood Year

Red

ds

Co

un

ted

(X

1000

)Wild

Natural/Hatchery-influenced

Chinook Spawning Ground Surveys

Index Area Counts

Spawner to

Parr

y = 0.0018x - 2.1579

R2 = 0.5444

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Wild Spring/Summer Chinook LGR Escapement

Par

r D

ensi

ty (n

o./1

00m

2 )

y = 0.0002x + 1.5573

R2 = 0.6326

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Wild A-Run or B-Run LGR Escapement

Yea

rlin

g A

-Run

or

B-R

un

Den

sity

(no.

/100

m2)

(Hall-Griswold & Petrosky 2002)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Parr Density Year (year i)

ln(D

en

sit

y i+t/D

en

sit

y i)

WSC t=4.5

NSC t=4.5

W/N t=4.5

Replacement

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Parr Density Year (year i)

ln(D

en

sit

yi+

t/De

ns

ity

i)WA t=5.5NA t=5.5WB t=5.5NB t=5.5All t=5.5Replacement

Spawner to

Spawner

(Hall-Griswold & Petrosky 2002)

Chinook

Steelhead

Chinook Recruit/Spawner Analysis

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

59 64 69 74 79 84 89

Brood Year

Su

rviv

al I

nd

ex

Snake River

LowerColumbia

Schaller et al. 1999

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

Brood year

Sm

olt

-to

-ad

ult

su

rviv

al (

SA

R)

0

50

100

150

200

Sm

olt

s/sp

awn

er

(Petrosky et al. 2001)

Chinook Life Cycle Survival

Project Benefits

• Excellent trend data set

• Lots of mileage and publications

• Project reports highly cited in regional forums (e.g. PATH & CRI)

• Also some site-specific survival & productivity estimates

Wild Snake River Chinook & Steelhead

• Monitor population status & trends

• Measure freshwater production

• Effects of habitat projects

• Estimate stage-specific survival

2001-2003 Objectives

Production & Survival

• Natural chinook smolts/female for basin– Lower Granite Dam data

• Age structure of chinook adult returns to basin– Length frequency analysis at Lower Granite

Dam

• Natural smolt-adult return rate for basin– Lower Granite Dam data– PTAGIS data

Chinook Freshwater Production Stock-Recruit Analysis

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

0

2,0

00

4,0

00

6,0

00

8,0

00

10

,00

0

12

,00

0

14

,00

0

Estimated Female Escapement

Es

tim

ate

d S

mo

lts

at

LG

R

19941999

1996

1998

1991

1995

19971993

2000

1992

1990

Smolt Forecast

y = -0.0001x + 5.8736R2 = 0.5133

3

4

5

6

7

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Female Escapement

(Ln

) S

mo

lts

pe

r F

em

ale

93

98

92

97

91

90

94

95

96

99

How well did the model perform?

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

0

10,0

00

20,0

00

30,0

00

40,0

00

50,0

00

60,0

00

Estimated Female Escapement

Est

imat

ed S

mo

lts

at L

GR

Predicted

Observed

After 2003 smolt migration

Steelhead PIT Tagging

Steelhead Tagging ResultsMigratory

YearNumber Tagged

Smolts Detected

1999 7195 1200

2000 6525 1330

2001 7430 1708

2002 5395 830

2003 7040 987

Average 6717 1211

Basinwide Steelhead Trends

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Migratory Year

SA

R

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

De

tec

ted

3 Ocean SAR

2 Ocean SAR

1 Ocean SAR

# Smolts Detected

Specific Migration Timing

03/23

/02

04/06

/02

04/20

/02

05/04

/02

05/18

/02

06/01

/02

06/15

/02

Brushy Fork Creek

Chamberlain Creek

North Fork MooseCreek

Whitebird Creek/SlateCreek

Co

llec

tio

n S

ite

Detection Date

10% 50% 90%

Percent ofTotal Detections

Chinook Fin ray aging & SARs

• Discrepancy between PIT tag returns and scales

• Length at Age x LGR Length Frequency = Length at Age for entire Snake River ESU

• Assign returns back to correct brood year

Collection Sites

Fin Rays >97% Accuracy

2003 Carcass Length at Age

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Fork Length (cm)

Pe

rce

nt

Fre

qu

en

cy 1:1 1:2 1:3 1:4

Ages

2003 Proportion of Carcass Length at Age

Ocean Age

FL (cm) 1 2 3 4

<50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

50-54 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

55-59 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

60-64 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

65-69 0.14 0.86 0.00 0.00

70-74 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.00

75-79 0.00 0.90 0.10 0.00

80-84 0.00 0.81 0.19 0.00

85-89 0.00 0.24 0.76 0.00

90-94 0.00 0.07 0.92 0.01

95-99 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.04

100-104 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.02

>104 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00

Video at LGR Counting Window

2003 LGR Length FrequencyChart Title

0123

456

Fork length in cm.

Perc

ent F

requ

ency N = 409

Assigning Ages

Carcass Length at Age data X

Lower Granite Dam lengths of entire run= Length at Age for entire Snake River wild/natural

spring/summer adult chinook salmonX

The total number of wild chinook passing Lower Granite Dam (supplied by TAC)

= Total Number of Chinook in each Smolt Migration Yr.

Chinook Smolt-to-adult Return Rates

Smolt Migratory Year

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Smolts 419,826 161,157 599,159 1,560,298 1,344,382 500,700 1,173,566

Adult Returns

1-ocean -- 189 235 1496 1227 463 3203

2-ocean 997 2155 6925 28,168 20,219 11,737 --

3-ocean 456 408 833 17,228 22,408 -- --

4-ocean 0 22 390 571 -- -- --

Total 1453 2774 8383 30,235 43,854 12,200 3203

SAR (%) 0.35 1.72 1.40 3.04 3.26 2.44 0.27

Summary to Date

• Maintain large trend data sets

• Large-scale empirical productivity models

• Habitat data not well-integrated

• PIT tagging for steelhead passage studies

• Highly accurate population age data

• Tissue archive from carcasses

• Sampling not representative

Where do we go now?

Changing Needs

• Augment trend sites

• Population-specific data– Genetic & demographic information

• System-wide compatibility

Chinook Metapopulation Structure

Future Directions

• Evaluate current tasks & data

• Analyze genetic archive

• Incorporate probabilistic design

• Explore processes & scales appropriate for management

• Develop collaborative relationships