The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Whats New in the LMI World Nevadas Perspective.

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency

What’s New in the LMI World—Nevada’s Perspective

Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Frank R. Woodbeck, Director

Bill Anderson, Chief Economist

Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau for the Second Annual EMSI Conference—September 2012


Nevada’s Recession Scorecard: Unemployment Rate

Despite the fact that it has come down from all-time highs, Nevada’s jobless rate is 6.8 percentage points higher than at the “official” start of the recession in December 2007.

The U.S. unemployment rate stands 3.3 points higher than at the start of the recession.

12.0%

5.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

December 2007 July 2012


Unemployment Rate Rankings (SA)

In July, Nevada maintained the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Rhode Island was second-highest, at 10.8%. North Dakota’s three percent jobless rate was the lowest.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Nevada

Rhode Island

California

New Jersey

North Carolina/SouthCarolina

Vermont

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Nebraska

North Dakota5

15

04

94

84

65

43

21


Nevada’s Recession Scorecard: Non-Farm Jobs (SA)

Nevada’s job losses since the “official” start of the recession in December 2007 total 158K (-12.2%).

Over the same period, U.S. jobs are down 3.4%. 400K jobs were created in Nevada between 1997 and 2007.

1,134,700

1,293,100

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

December 2007 July 2012


Number of States with Higher Rates of Job Growth than Nevada (year-over-year; 2012 data are for June)

As of June, just 19 states had a higher job growth rate than NV. Over the 2003-2005 period, NV had the highest growth in the nation. At the height of the recession, every other state had a higher rate of job

growth than NV.

0 0 03

24

4750 50

32

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12


In Nevada, We Need Information & Intelligence, Not Just Data


Las Vegas Strip Casino Revenue: Gaming vs. Nongaming (share of total revenue; by fiscal year)

The traditional “gaming” industry in Nevada has diversified. In FY 2011, 62% of Las Vegas Strip casino revenue was from nongaming sources

(rooms, food/beverage, etc.), and that share has been consistently on the rise. Gaming revenue accounts for just 38% of the total, down significantly from a 59%

share in FY 1989.

38%

59%

62%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

gaming nongaming


Current Population Survey Results


Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization (four quarters ending 2012:IIQ)

U-3 similar in scope to the official rate. U-4 includes discouraged workers. U-6 includes all persons available for work whom are only marginally

attached to the labor force plus involuntary part-time workers.

Measure Underutilization Concept Level

Official Rate

jobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks 12.7%

U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 7.9%

U-2job losers and persons losing a temporary job 7.7%

U-3 similar to official rate 12.3%

U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 13.4%

U-5U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force 14.9%

U-6U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons 22.1%

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization(four quarters ending 2012:IIQ)


NV Labor Force Participation Rate (labor force / population; 12-month moving average)

Nevada’s labor force participation rate has been trending down in recent years, although there has been considerable volatility.

In late-2008, the LFPR peaked at nearly 70%. In the 12 months ending in May, 65.1% of the population was in the labor force (either employed or unemployed).

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

71%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Discouraged Workers in Nevada (12-month moving average)

The number of discouraged workers skyrocketed during the recession…an eight-fold increase.

While the increase appears to be easing, there are still 16K discouraged workers in the State.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Unemployment Duration in Nevada (12-month average)

Roughly half of unemployed Nevadans half been without work for more than 26 weeks.

This has the potential for long-term implications.

Less than 5 weeks 18%

5 to 14 Weeks20%

15 to 26 Weeks 14%

27 weeks or more 48%


Information From Unemployment Insurance Programs


Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Initial claims totaled 18,700 in July, barely up from a year ago. This represents the first increase in more than 2.5 years. Claims activity during the first week in August was down 12.8% from a year

ago, suggesting that July’s results are likely not the start of a trend. Claims activity during the recession peaked in excess of 36,000.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2011 2012


Total Unemployment Insurance Claims vs. the Total Number of Unemployed

There were approximately 65,600 Nevadans submitting UI claims in July. 34,700 were regular UI claims; 30,900 fell under a variety of extension programs. Of the 172,000 Nevadans estimated to be unemployed in July, 38%, were receiving

benefits. In the first half of 2008, 46% of those counted as unemployed received benefits. At its peak, the “coverage ratio” exceeded 70%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Regular State/Federal Extensions Total Unemployment


Unemployment Insurance Benefit “Coverage Ratio” (share of unemployed receiving benefits)

After peaking at over 70% in early 2009, the UI coverage ratio (45.5%) is nearly back to its average 2007 level (41.3%).

Extended UI benefits provide more than half of this coverage, as regular benefits cover just 21.6% of unemployed Nevadans.

The fall in regular benefit coverage is explained in part by the presence of extended benefits and in part by long-term unemployment, which has reduced the number of people eligible for new UI claims.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Regular Benefits Extended Benefits


Business Employment Dynamics Insights


Nevada Labor Market Dynamics: Gross Job Gains and Losses (SA)

Typically, our monthly analyses focus on net job growth or loss. Beneath the surface, there is considerable activity taking place.

During the recession, gross job gains at expanding or opening private sector establishments tumbled noticeably, while gross job losses at closing or contracting establishments spiked.

As the State’s labor market improved, albeit haltingly, gross gains have stabilized, while gross losses are easing down.

In last year’s fourth quarter (the most recent data available), gross job gains were about 57,500 and losses were about 55,200.

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

gains losses

difference = gains - losses


Local Employment Dynamics Information


Employment: 14-18 Year Olds

Employment trends suggest Nevada teens were hit very hard by the recession.

Employment levels (based upon official wage records) have essentially been cut in half…from a pre-recession peak of more than 46K to just above 20K.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Employment by Industry: 14-18 Year Olds(four quarters ending 2011:IIQ)

Just five industries account of more than three-fourths of teen employment in Nevada.

Two industries—accommodation/food services and retail trade—account for nearly two-thirds of teen employment.

Accommodation/Food Services

41%

Retail Trade21%

Admin. and Support/Waste Mgmt. and Remediation Srvs.

6%

Construction5%

Health Care/Social Assistance

4%

Other23%


Nevada Average Monthly Earnings: All Workers vs. New Hires

In examining wages and earnings, the focus is often on some measure of average earnings.

It is important to note that wages for new hires tend to be below the average. Specifically, new hire earnings (measured on a monthly basis) tend to be about two-

thirds of the overall average.

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

IQ

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 '11

all workers new hires


Last, But Not Least, We have the Labor Market Intelligence Provided via EMSI

To date, EMSI resources have been used to support and inform the State’s new focus on economic development.


2008 - 2018 Job Growth by Training Level

Over the next several years, jobs with higher-level training requirements are expected to grow the fastest. Jobs requiring a two-year associate’s degree are projected to show the most growth in percentage terms. The largest number of available job openings will continue to be found in occupations requiring on-the-job training (about 4,800 per year).

10.4%

12.9%

18.1%

5.3%

9.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Short to long-term on-the-job-training

Postsecondary vocationaltraining

Bachelor's degree

Higher than Bachelor'sdegree

Associate's degree


Nevada’s Changing Economic Structure via “Location Quotients”

A measure of relative importance. NV job share/national job share. LQ>1 implies greater concentration in NV. LQ<1 implies less concentration in NV. Notable trends:

accommodation/food services three times more important in NV than in U.S. (but declining) construction has been hit hard; LQ much closer to one health care is growing, but job share is still only about two-thirds of the national average public sector employment in NV only about 80% of U.S. average

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Manufacturing

Health Care and Social Assistance

Wholesale Trade

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Government

Retail Trade

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and RemediationServices

Transportation and Warehousing

Construction

Accommodation and Food Services

2011 2001


Top-Ten High Growth, High Concentration, High Wage Industries (2006-2011)

Despite the impacts of the recession, there have been some Nevada success stories. While overall job levels trended down, several showed growth over the past half-decade. In total, the top-ten high job growth, high concentration (a greater share of NV employment is in these industries than in the nation), high

wage industries added more than 10,500 jobs between 2006 and 2011.

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Other Performing Arts Companies

Other Heavy and Civil EngineeringConstruction

Scheduled Passenger AirTransportation

Support Activities for Metal Mining

Oil and Gas Pipeline and RelatedStructures Construction

Other Support Activities for AirTransportation

Gold Ore Mining

Offices of Dentists

Solid Waste Collection

Corporate, Subsidiary, and RegionalManaging Offices


Ten Nevada Industries with the Largest 2010-2011 "Competitive Job Shares"

Shift-Share analyses identify that share of industry job growth in a region that is likely due to national trends (expected change), including trends specific to that industry, and region-specific trends (competitive share).

Temporary help services had the largest competitive share in Nevada last year. In all, this industry added 1,800 jobs last year—1,200 were expected given broader trends at the national level and 600 (the competitive share) were due to trends specific to Nevada.

All told, the ten industries in Nevada with the largest competitive shares grew 7.2%, nearly three times faster than their national growth rate—2.5%. Several of the industries with the smallest competitive shares were those impacted most by the recession—commercial building, commercial banking, local government, electrical contractors, etc.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

All Other Support Services

Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists)

Landscaping Services

Convention and Trade Show Organizers

Oil and Gas Pipeline and Related Structures Construction

Telemarketing Bureaus and Other Contact Centers

Janitorial Services

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals

Security Guards and Patrol Services

Temporary Help Services

competitive share expected change actual change


2007-2011 Health and Medical Services Sector Employment Growth: Ten Fastest Growing Industries

The HMS Sector weathered the recent recession better than others. All told, approximately 8,200 jobs were added between 2007 and 2011. Of the 41 detailed industries within the sector, all but 13 grew over the period. Of the decliners, only one, medical laboratories, had a significant

loss (-400 jobs).

Industry 2007 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (Private) 18,959 20,647 1,688Home Health Care Services 3,708 5,063 1,355Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 16,034 17,284 1,250Offices of Dentists 6,971 7,531 560Nursing Care Facilities 5,160 5,634 474Homes for the Elderly 1,559 1,944 385Specialty (except Psychiatric and Substance Abuse) Hospitals (Private) 1,390 1,744 354Offices of Physical, Occupational and Speech Therapists, and Audiologists 1,951 2,301 350Residential Mental Health and Substance Abuse Facilities 620 959 339Kidney Dialysis Centers 572 824 252


2001-2011 Tourism/Gaming/Entertainment Employment Growth by Sub-Sector

Within the broadly-defined Nevada TGE sector, most sub-sectors have added jobs. In some cases, gains have been considerable.

Food/drinking establishments have added 34K jobs in the past decade. The retail trade and non-casino lodging sub-sectors each added about 7K employees to payroll.

The most notable drop came in the gaming sub-sector, where 26K positions were cut.

-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Gaming

Travel Assistance

News and Information

Arts, Entertainment &Recreation

Manufacturing

Transit

Lodging (non-casino)

Retail

Food and Drinking


For Additional Information, Please Contact:

Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation

Research and Analysis Bureau

Bill Anderson

Chief Economist

[email protected]

(775) 684-0450

http://www.nevadaworkforce.com

follow us on Twitter @nvlabormarket

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Whats New in the LMI World Nevadas Perspective.

Documents

training rehabilitation

data slide

nevada yearoveryear

highest unemployment

official rate

nevadas jobless rate

higher job growth rate

higher rate of job growth