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The inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning Forbes blog: http ://blogs.forbes.com/stevedenning/ Email: [email protected]
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The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Mar 08, 2018

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Page 1: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The inexorable rise of Agile

1

Steve Denning

Forbes blog: http://blogs.forbes.com/stevedenning/Email: [email protected]

Page 2: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

I learnt about

management at the

World Bank

Page 3: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The very same issues

are very much alive

in 2015

Page 4: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The World Bank (or Volkswagen)

Page 5: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

A family resemblance?

Castle Neuschwanstein of Bavaria: Image Wikipedia

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6

“Traditional, MBA-style thinking, dictates that you build up a sustainable competitive advantage over rivals and then close the fortress and defend it with boiling oil and flaming arrows.”

How Google Works, by Eric Schmidt et al

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Is this structure agile?

Page 8: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Where is the customer?

Page 9: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Can this organization collaborate?

Page 10: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Can this organization communicate?

Top-down communications

Page 11: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Managers are controllers

of individuals

Bureaucracy:rules, plans, reports

Top down commands

Produceoutputs,money,

shareholder value)

Goal

Role

CoordinationValues

Communications

Control of things

The five elements are interlocking

Hierarchical bureaucracy fits together as a system

Efficiency, predictability

Page 12: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

12

This way of managing was highly successful

In the 20th Century, these management practices

• Met the demand for mass market products and services

• Generated unprecedented material prosperity for many.

• Were the most important economic event since the invention of agriculture.

• Were a good fit for the marketplace at the time.

Page 13: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The problems didn’t matter in a stable world!

Not good at collaboration!

Not agile!

Where is the customer!

Bad at communications!

Page 14: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Then the world changed!

Page 15: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

• Globalization

• Deregulation

• Knowledge workers

• New technology,especially the Internet

Then the world changed

Page 16: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

• Globalization

• Deregulation

• Knowledge workers

• New technology,especially the Internet

Greater competition

Faster pace

Workers know as much as the managers

The customer becomesthe boss

Then the world changed

Page 17: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

First reaction: double down

More control and top down communications

Page 18: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Many management fixes were tried

• downsizing. • reorganizations. • delayering• empowering staff. • innovation initiatives. • reengineering • sales and marketing. • mergers and acquisitions. • shed businesses that weren’t doing well. • stock-based compensation for executives

Page 19: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The fixes didn’t stick

Bad news:

Page 20: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Self-organizing teams!

Bureaucracy:rules, plans, reports

Top down commands

Produceoutputs,money,

shareholder value)

Goal

Role

CoordinationValues

Communications

Control of things

The five elements are interlocking

Partial changes would be introduced

Efficiency, predictability

Page 21: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Managers are controllers

of individuals

Bureaucracy:rules, plans, reports

Top down commands

Produceoutputs,money,

shareholder value)

Goal

Role

CoordinationValues

Communications

Control of things

Hierarchical bureaucracy is the default model

The firm would revert to hierarchical bureaucracy

Efficiency, predictability

Page 22: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The fixes didn’t work

Even worse news:

Page 23: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Overall, the management fixes didn’t work!

Rates of return on assets steadily declined

Page 24: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The system stopped generating jobs!

Firms > 5 years: net destroyers of jobs

From the Kauffman Foundation’s Entrepreneurship Policy Digest, reproduced with permission.

Page 25: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Productivity gains went to owners/managers

Workers’ compensation remained flat

Page 26: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Productivity gains went to owners/managers

Workers’ compensation remained flat

1940-1980

Gains are shared!

Page 27: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Productivity gains went to owners/managers

Workers’ compensation remained flat

1940-1980

Gains are shared!

1980-2010

Gains are not shared!

Page 28: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

“Management itself is

obsolete”

Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, HBR January 2009

Page 29: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

A different way of managing emerged

29

Page 30: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

What is this new way of managing?

Page 31: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The new way of managing has various names:

Agile & ScrumDevOps

Radical managementConscious capitalismInclusive capitalism

Design thinking

Page 32: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Delighting customers

Goal

RoleCommunications

From controller to enabler

From bureaucracy to Agile, Scrum, Lean

From command to conversations

From value to values

CoordinationValues

The elements are interlocking

TransparencyImprovementSustainability

The Creative Economy

Page 33: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Delighting customers

Goal

RoleCommunications

From controller to enabler

From bureaucracy to Agile, Scrum, Lean

From command to conversations

From value to values

CoordinationValues

The elements are interlocking

TransparencyImprovementSustainability

The Creative Economy

Managers are controllers

of individuals

Bureaucracy:rules, plans, reports

Top down commands

Efficiency, cost cutting

Make money for shareholders

Goal

Role

Coordination

Communications

Traditional Management

Values

The change is happening inexorably

Page 34: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

This isn’t a little fix, like

“adding a new management process”

34

Page 35: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Earth

Sun

It’s like the Copernican Revolution in astronomy

Sun

35

Page 36: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Earth

Sun

Sun

Earth

The Copernican Revolution in astronomy

The shift led to vast economic, social and political change36

Page 37: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The firm

The Copernican Revolution in Management

Customer

37

Page 38: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

38

The firm

The customer

Firm

The Copernican Revolution in management

User/ Customer

Page 39: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

WL Gore & Associates

Page 40: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Where is the customer?

WL Gore & Associates

Page 41: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The main focus is internal

WL Gore & Associates

Page 42: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

People

Things

External focus

Internalfocus

How Agile emerged

Page 43: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

People

Things

External focus

Internalfocus

Hierarchical bureaucracy

How Agile emerged

Page 44: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

People

Things

External focus

Internalfocus

Hierarchical bureaucracy

LeanToyota

WL Gore

How Agile emerged

Page 45: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

People

Things

External focus

Internalfocus

AgileRadical management

Design thinking

LeanToyota

WL Gore

Hierarchical bureaucracy

How Agile emerged

Page 46: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

A new mental picture

of the organization is emerging

Page 47: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

A new mental model of the firm is emerging

From this….

Page 48: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Management

Workers-employees-contractors

-suppliers

Customers

A new mental model of the firm is emerging

From this…. …. to this

Page 49: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

A new mental model of the firm is emerging

Customer invisible Customer is part of firm

Management

Workers-employees-contractors

-suppliers

Customers

Page 50: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

A new mental model of the firm is emerging

Static Dynamic

Management

Workers-employees-contractors

-suppliers

Customers

Page 51: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

A new mental model of the firm is emerging

One-way communications Interactive communications

Management

Workers-employees-contractors

-suppliers

Customers

Page 52: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The shift is happening on a large scale

• Tens of thousands of Agile implementations globally

• Most big firms doing something in Agile

• Now spreading to all parts of the firm and to all sectors

• Also a lot of fake Agile

Page 53: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Agile & ScrumRadical managementConscious capitalismInclusive capitalism

Design thinking

The new way of managing has various names:

It’s not just Agile!

Page 54: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Agile solves a fundamental management conundrum

How to get continuous with disciplined

execution?

Page 55: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Disciplined execution vs continuous innovation

Disciplinedexecution

Innovation

Page 56: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Disciplined execution vs continuous innovation

Bureaucracy

Team

Disciplinedexecution

Innovation

Page 57: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Disciplined execution vs continuous innovation

Bureaucracy

Team

Disciplinedexecution

Innovation

Agile

Page 58: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

In general management circles and business schools

Agile is the best-kept management secret

on the planet

Page 59: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

In general management circles and business schools:

• “Agile is only for software”

• “Agile doesn’t scale”

• “Agile can’t handle complexity”

• “Agile isn’t reliable”

• “Agile is short-lived”

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We established a Learning Consortium to find out

In April 2015, nine firms agreed to go on mutual site visits :

Agile42BrillioCH Robinson Ericsson Magna InternationalMicrosoftMenlo InnovationsRiot GamesSolutionsIQ

EuropeIndiaUSEuropeEuropeUSUSUSUS

Agile coaching/trainingTechnology consultantTransportation brokerageNetworks/telecomAuto partsSoftware/electronicsSoftware designGamingAgile enterprise solutions

The Learning Consortium is sponsored by Scrum Alliance

Page 61: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Findings of the Learning Consortium:

• “Agile is only for software”

• “Agile doesn’t scale”

• “Agile can’t handle complexity”

• “Agile isn’t reliable”

• “Agile doesn’t last”

We investigated:

Page 62: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Findings of the Learning Consortium:

• “Agile is only for software”

• “Agile doesn’t scale”

• “Agile can’t handle complexity”

• “Agile isn’t reliable”

• “Agile doesn’t endure”

Agile is spreading to everything

Agile scales without sclerosis

Agile handles complexity

Agile can be fail-safe

Some examples: 10-15 years

Page 63: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Main findings of the Learning Consortium

• Agile is a mindset, not a methodology

• Without the management mindset of enablement, Agile practices achieve nothing.

• Agile practices with a control mindset are a disaster.

Page 64: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Rome wasn’t built in a day

Developing and embodying the Agile mindset takes time.

Creating a culture of agility takes even longer.

Agile can’t be mastered in a two-day training course.

Firms with just a few Agile practices are not truly Agile

Page 65: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Managers ask: how can I give up control?

Page 66: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Managers are giving up a semblance of control

Hierarchical bureaucracyLack of transparencyWritten reports Reports go up and down the chainEveryone in a CYA modeProblems festerMassive technical & brand debt

A semblance of control

Page 67: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Managers are giving up a semblance of control

Hierarchical bureaucracyLack of transparencyWritten reports Reports go up and down the chainEveryone in a CYA modeProblems festerMassive technical & brand debt

A semblance of control

Page 68: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Agile is about having actual control

AgileRadical transparencyFinished work each iteration“Information radiators”Nowhere to hideProblems identified earlyNo technical or brand debt

Actual control

Management

Workers-employees-contractors

-suppliers

Customers

Page 69: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

Many big firms look like this

Delighting customers

Goal

RoleCommunications

From controller to enabler

From bureaucracy to Agile, Scrum, Lean

From command to conversations

From value to values

CoordinationValues

The elements are interlocking

TransparencyImprovementSustainability

The Creative Economy

Page 70: The inexorable rise of Agile - Agile Business Conference inexorable rise of Agile 1 Steve Denning ... these management practices ... Gary Hamel, Moonshots for Management, ...

The choice is stark:

Change or die!

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The inexorable rise of Agile

72

Steve Denning

Forbes blog: http://blogs.forbes.com/stevedenning/Email: [email protected]