The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Tourism/Joachim_Wi… · The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives • Population Ageing • Depopulation and • Shrinking

Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 1

The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

The Future Trends

in Tourism -

Global Perspectives

‚the future of TOURISM‘,

a Club of Amsterdam conference31.05.2007, Amsterdam.



[A] Tourism – already a global competition

The current state:

facts & figures





Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007











The World‘s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions

Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007



The future state:

forecasts & figures



2005 – 2025:

Two Asian Decades

[T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies



Source: WTTC 2007

Asia‘sFutureTourismTigers



Source: WTTC 2007

Asia‘sFutureTourismTiger



Source: WTTC 2007

Asia‘sFutureTourismTigers





LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006]



Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm

UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast]



UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast]



Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 – 2025

Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007

Average Annual Growth Rate

in %



Europe‘s New Burden -

Retirement Poverty

[T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“



Life exspectancy at birth, 2001

Tourism Future &Ageing Europe



Population Ageing in the EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050




Facts:Tourism Future &Ageing Europe

• By 2030 the EU can expect 14 percent fewer workers and7 percent fewer consumers as 2005

• According to the United Nations, population ageing is increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of our times.

• By 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will reach 40% of the total population or 60% of the working age population.

• Population Ageing

• Depopulation

and

• Shrinking Cities

[in EUROPE]



Population Ageing in the EU:

• Germany• Belgium• Denmark• Spain• France

Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050

Share of persons 60 years and over [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat]

Germany:2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41%

Belgium: 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38%

Denmark: 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36%

Spain: 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44%

France: 2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38%





• Depopulation

and


[in EUROPE]

Consequences:Tourism Future &Ageing Europe

• Old Age Poverty &• Social Exclusion

• Shrinking Income• Shrinking Consumption• Skrinking Wealth

• Growing Health Risks &• Long Term Health Problems

• Large Scale Immobilities &• Neglected Space [Destinations]







• Large Scale Immobilities &• Neglected Space [Destination]


• Depopulation

and


[in EUROPE]

Results from the SHARE-Project [http://www.share-project.org]

...clearly indicate that men and women with a lower socio-economic status have already a worse physical health than those with a higher socio-economic position

Among both men and women, a low educational level or income is associated with a higher risk of reporting less than good self-perceived health, long-term problems, as well as activity limitations due to health problems.







• Large Scale Immobilities &• Neglected Space [Destination]


• Depopulation

and


[in EUROPE]

Discussed Solution:New Migrant Workers:

80–700 million migrants by 2050!

A sustainable increase of VFR-Tourism shall follow!



„CU soon, my friend/brother“ -

Global

VFR-Tourism

Streams

[T3] Tourism Future – „VFR-Tourism“




The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism



„The Mediterranization of

Western- and Central-Europe“ -

Climate Change Advantages [?]

[T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change



IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for:



IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for...






IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy]



North Amerika Europe

Amerika

Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006




Amerika





Amerika




North America North-East-Asia

Amerika


Caribbean




Amerika


Caribbean




Amerika


Caribbean

Elderly (esp. European)may avoid travel to „very hot summer destinations“; i. g.• the Mediterranean Basin• East Coast USA• South-West USA• Australian Cities



NW- and Central-Europe‘s Domestic and Incoming Tourism Streamsmay benefit from CC inthe summer saison!

• Warmer Coastal Waters [Increase in Sun & Beach Tourism]

• New Marine Attractions [Dolphins, Fish Species, Algae and Corals, Birds]

• Warmer Land Surfaces & • Mediterranization of Lifstyles

The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives Tourism/Joachim_Wi… · The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives • Population Ageing • Depopulation and • Shrinking

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