THE EUROPEAN LIGNITE TRIANGLE. · 2020. 9. 14. · CCGT OCGT / GAS PEAKER FLEX CHP BIOGAS OTHER NUCLEAR LIGNITE COAL X% GROSS RES SHARE HYDRO1 WIND OFFSHORE WIND ONSHORE Source: Aurora

THE EUROPEAN LIGNITE TRIANGLE.SCENARIOS FOR A SECURE, COST-EFFECTIVE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

SECTOR TRANSFORMATION www.forum-energii.eu

Background

Coal production and imports in Europe in 2019

PORTUGAL

2.8

SPAIN

8.5

FRANCESWITZERLAND

10.40.1

BELGIUM

3.9

NETHERLANDS

10.3

40.3

131.3

6.8 1.4

61.62.2

UNITED KINGDOM

6.8IRELAND

0.3DENMARK

37.5

3.4 3.4CZECHIA

TURKEY

HUNGARY1.1 0.4

SLOVENIA

0.5

38.9

SERBIA

1.5 3.4

SLOVAKIA

<0.121.125.5

UKRAINE

POLAND

2.4

50.3

16.7

36.1

85.8

1.2

LITHUANIA0.3

LATVIA<0.1

ESTONIA<0.1

FINLAND

3.1

SWEDEN2.3

NORWAY0.1 0.8

BELARUS0.1*

MOLDOVA

0.1

CROATIA0.7

AUSTRIA

GERMANY

3.6

ITALY

10.8

13.21.5

BOSNIA& HERZEGOVINA

8.1 <0.1KOSOVO

21.71.0

ROMANIA

28.00.6

BULGARIA5.5 <0.1

NORTH MACEDONIA

0.3* 0.1*ALBANIA 27.3

0.4GREECE

LIGNITE

EU-28 MLN TONNES

HARD COAL

IMPORTS

* 2018 DATA

308

67

134

MONTENEGRO1.6

Source: Forum Energii based on EURACOAL

Background

Coal gap

CO2 emissions reduction

Regional strategy

Lack of profitability of new coal projects

The transformation has already started

need for new, low-carbon capacities.

old/new EU targets for 2030 and 2050; lignite as the most emissive fuel.

Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic are the main EU lignite producers. Interactions need to be analysed.

rising CO2-prices in the ETS.

no proper decisions to address the challenge.

security of supply

electricity trade balance and electricity flows

reduction of CO2 emissions

wholesale electricity prices and overall costs

Objective of the analysis

Impact assessment of parallel lignite phase-out in Poland, Czech Republic and Germany.

Approach

Elaborating reference scenario – current energy plans of the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany.

Two scenarios of lignite phase-out by: 2032, 2035

Analysis of technological and economic conditions in the Triangle countries.

Modelling – hourly simulations of connected power systems; cost optimisation.

recommendations of the Commission for Growth, Stability and Employment in early 2019, coal phase-out by 2038, 65% RES by 2030.

“Poland's Energy Policy 2040”, 2018 version; no nuclear power; cost-based decisions for both conventional and RES capacities.

National Energy and Climate Plan and capacity planning by ČEZ; more ambitious development of RES, no new nuclear power.

PL

DE

CZ

Starting point – reference scenario

Key results

Germany

Electricity generation

64 52

76

7359

61 72

55

6449

56 5963

81

96

42

46 73

-37 -47-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 TWh

30 191

117

168

30

126

665

7

33

29108

138

123

28123

633 28

197

165

577 585607

-63

65%80%

2020 202520232021 20242022 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 20362031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2037 2038 2039 2040

NET IMPORTSSOLAR

BIOMASSOCGT / GAS PEAKER BIOGASFLEX CHPCCGT

COALLIGNITENUCLEAROTHER

X% GROSS RES SHARE

WIND ONSHOREWIND OFFSHOREHYDRO1

Source: Aurora Energy Research. 1) Hydro includes run-of-river, hydro storage and pump storage

200

150

100

50

02020 2025 2030 2035 2040

300 MtCO2

250 233

191

148121120

118117

191139

286

Cumulative savings reference vs. 2032 phase-out: ~410MtCO2

REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT

Source: Aurora Energy Research

Power sector CO2 emissions – all scenarios

-24-30

9

50 TWh

-50

EXPORT

IMPORTS

-100

0

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

-37-35 -46

-43 -63

-70



Electricity trade balance

30

35

40

45

50

55 EUR/MWh (real 2018)

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

45

51 51 5150 50 50

47

5050 -3



Wholesale electricity prices – all scenarios

Source: Aurora Energy Research, Netztransparenz.de.Note: The payment for RES support is the difference between set level of RES support and achieved market revenue.

System costs

bn EUR (real 2018)

0

40

10

60

2030

50

2028

52.1

20322020 2022 2024 2026 20402030 2034 2036 2038

53.545.7 41.3 39.6

SUBSIDY CHPWHOLESALE COST PAYMENT FOR RES SUPPORT

0

50

10203040

60 53.5 52.145.5 42.3 37.4

-10

4030

0

50

10

60

20

46.953.5 52.1

42.0 37.0

2035 PHASE-OUT

2032 PHASE-OUT

REFERENCE SCENARIO

Poland

Source: Aurora Energy Research1) Hydro includes run-of-river, hydro storage and pump storage


OTHERS

WIND ONSHORE SOLARHYDRO1 WIND OFFSHOREBIOMASSBIOGAS

FLEX CHPOCGT / GAS PEAKERCCGTCOALLIGNITE

12 11

49 50 29

5639

40

35 25

1921

2945

47

17 30 44

14 30 35 39401 11

1519

1

0

40

80

120

160

200

240 TWh

6

8

99

188201

8

215

2

166177

NET IMPORTS

20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 20402030

DSR

2020

124 108

85

63

107

72

4955

2020 2025 2030 2035 204020

120

140

40

60

80

100

160 MtCO2

128 124115

89

76

5766

56

NECP

Cumulative savings reference vs. 2032 phase-out: ~158MtCO2




11

6

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16 TWh

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

12

6

9

11

98

6

98




67

59

55

62 66 66

30

40

70

60

50

EUR/MWh (real 2018)

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

68-2





System costs

0

10

20 bn EUR (real 2018)15.7

11.9 12.3 14.216.6

20

0

10

14.311.9 12.1

15.7 16.8

0

10

2015.814.5

12.111.916.9

WHOLESALE COST CAPACITY MARKET COSTSUBSIDY CHPSUBSIDY RES NEWBUILDSUBSIDY RES EXISTING

20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 204020302020

2035 PHASE-OUT

2032 PHASE-OUT

REFERENCE SCENARIO

Czech Republic


Source: Aurora Energy Research.1) Hydro includes run-of-river, hydro storage and pump storage.

27 28

5 4

30 30

28 27 26

188 8

6

8 9

123

11 14

-5

4 5 6

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90 TWh

1

-3

3

2

3

6771

73 75 771

20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 20292020 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 20402030

NET IMPORTS COALLIGNITE

HYDRO1FLEX CHP

NUCLEAR CCGT

OCGT / GAS PEAKER BIOGAS BIOMASS

WIND ONSHORE SOLAR

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

30

35

45

40

MtCO2

25

20

15

10

5

0

17

26

4038

21

16

99


Cumulative savings reference vs. 2032 phase-out: ~95 MtCO2


Source: Aurora Energy Research.


-3

2020 2025 2035 2040

0

-1.5

-3.0

-4.5

-6.0

-7.5

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5 TWh

2030

-5

4.5

3

0.3

4

-0.5

-2

3

-1

0


EXPORT

IMPORT


402020 2025 2030 2035 2040

45

50

55

60 EUR/MWh ('2018)

5657

55

53

48

53 52

4951

47

-8





6

4

10

7 bn EUR (real 2018)

5

23

5.95.05.3 5.9

4.7

SUBSIDY CHPSUBSIDY RES NEWBUILDSUBSIDY RES EXISTINGWHOLESALE COST

5

3

012

4

76 5.3 5.9 5.8

5.04.3

7

0123

6

45

5.3 5.9 5.94.8 4.2

20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 20292020 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 20402030

2035 PHASE-OUT

2032 PHASE-OUT

REFERENCE SCENARIO

System costs

CO2 emissions reduction in power sector between 2020 and 2030

The faster the phase-out (2032 scenario), the faster emissions drop

between 2020 and 2030

2020 2030: REFERENCE SCENARIO

2030: 2032 PHASE-OUT

226

301

448

0

200

100

300

400

500 MtCO2

-50% -24%in lignite triangle

in the EU-27 -33%

Lignite phase-out brings significant CO2 reductions in the EU

-47% PL

-51% DE

-44% CZ

● The decline of lignite is inevitable. Key decisions and coordinated regional action are needed.

● Security of supply in the region can be ensured even if we speed up the phase-out of lignite, but such a transformation requires a plan.

● A move away from lignite can significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region

and in the EU.

● Leaving lignite faster will not cost more.

● Accelerated withdrawal from lignite reduces electricity imports.

● Date of lignite exit: 2032 is realistic.

● To phase out lignite successfully, an alignment of strategy is necessary. This includes the future role of gas in the system.

Summary

Thank you for attention

THE EUROPEAN LIGNITE TRIANGLE. · 2020. 9. 14. · CCGT OCGT / GAS PEAKER FLEX CHP BIOGAS OTHER NUCLEAR LIGNITE COAL X% GROSS RES SHARE HYDRO1 WIND OFFSHORE WIND ONSHORE Source: Aurora

Documents