THE DEMOGRAPHY OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT

THE DEMOGRAPHY OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT

WITH A FOCUS ON MIGRATION MEASUREMENT ISSUES

Khassoum DIALLOSnr Statistician

UNHCR

ESCWA/DESA Training workshop on international migration statisticsCAIRO, 30/06 – 03/07 2009

OUTLINE• CONTEXT: MIGRATION ASYLUM NEXUS• REFUGEES: A COMPONENT OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION• UNHCR MANDATE ON REPORTING REFUGEES, ASYLUM-

SEEKERS AND STATELESS PERSONS• SCOPE OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT• MEASURING FORCED DISPLACEMENT:DATA SOURCES,

INDICATORS,PATTERNS AND KEY CHALLENGES• GOOD PRACTICES • UNHCR:A KEY PARTNER

ARE REFUGEES INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS?

• YES• They crossed international border• Citizen from another country / change of usual place of

residence• Duration of stay can be decades in protracted situations• Population accounting perspective• UN Recommendations

• What is specific to refugees vs other migrants • Legal perspective (1951 convention, non-refoulement,

rights of refugees) international human rights etc.• Different treatment by asylum states• Data protection and confidentiality

CONTEXT• Migration-asylum nexus: UNHCR 10-point plan• Cluster approach: Need for better data • Results-Based Management• Performance monitoring and accountability:

UNHCR, Governments and Donors.• Advocacy for evidence based decision making.

UNHCR protection mandate: Basis for statistical reporting

• Refugees• 1950 Statute of the Office of the UNHCR• 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees• 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees

States parties shall provide UNHCR with statistical information on the number and conditions of refugees in their countries …. The UNHCR shall collect data on refugees and report.

• Stateless persons (refugees & non-refugees)• 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless persons• 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness• ExCom conclusions

Collection and reporting of information on Statelessness.

• Internally displaced (IDPs)• Request from Security Council/Secretary-General• UN reform on IDP issues: Interagency Cluster approach

Primary responsibility of collecting information on IDPs lies with Cluster leads. UNHCR is cluster lead for Protection, Camp Coordination and Management and Emergency Shelter.

CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS

• MIGRATION• REFUGEE AND ASYLUM SEEKERS• INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS• STATELESS PERSONS• MIXED MIGRATION FLOWS

SCOPE OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT

• GENERAL MIGRATION ~ 200 million in 2008

• REFUGEE AND ASYLUM SEEKERS ~ 16 million end-2008 (8%)

• IDPs (26 million)

% of refugees in de facto population

8.0%

5.0%

1.3%

1.2%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Jordan

Syria

Kuw ait

Lebanon

Total refugeesAsylum-seekers (pending cases)

Returned refugees5

Total IDPs protected/ assisted

by UNHCR Returned IDPs7 Stateless persons8 Various9Total population of

concern

10,478,621 827,323 603,943 14,405,405 1,361,436 6,572,167 166,856 34,415,751

• Scope and Definitions• Asylum migration nexus, national vs international• Terminology: Who is a refugee, an IDP? • Time, location, distance, causes

• Data sources and triangulation• Coverage: Key information are missing• Register updating• Sources for triangulation • Data collection methodologies and tools

• Data quality• Timeliness in rapidly changing situations• Comparability, scope• Compliance with recommendations (UN, UNECE, UNHCR)

• Human resources• Skills and training• Uses of data for informed decision making

Key challengesKey challenges

Demographic patterns• Increasing share of

urban refugees• Between 70-90% of

refugees remain in their region of origin

• Age sex distribution

0-4yrs 5-11yrs 12-17yrs 18-59yrs 60yrs+ 0-4yrs 5-11yrs 12-17yrs 18-59yrs 60yrs+R+AS 5% 9% 7% 24% 2% 5% 10% 8% 27% 2%IDPs 5% 9% 7% 26% 3% 5% 10% 7% 26% 3%RET 9% 12% 7% 19% 2% 9% 13% 8% 19% 2%RDP 11% 13% 6% 25% 1% 10% 10% 6% 17% 1%

Female MaleCategory

Percentage of refugees remaining within or outside their region of

asylum, end-2007

83% 86% 90% 83%

17% 14% 10% 17%

Africa Asia Europe Latin Am./Caribb.

Within region Outside region

KEY INDICATORS: REFUGEE STATISTICS

• GENERAL POPULATION GROWTH EQUATION• P(t+1) = P(t) + (B-D) + (I-E)In refugee context • P(t+1) = P(t) + (B-D) + (I-E) + (LI-LD)With LI/LD = Legal increases/Decreases

• Other indicators: • Stock (at a given point of time, e.g. end-year),

• Source: Census, registers, admin records• Flows (dynamic during a period)

• Source: permits, other registers

Asylum statistics: Estimation of recognition rates

• Based on decisions• RRR: Refugee recognition rate• TRR Total recognition rate

• CR: Number of refugees recognized under the 1951 convention

• HR: Number of asylum seekers grated refugee status on temporary/humanitarian basis

• RJ Number of rejected cases during the year

• c: Countries of origin• y: Year

Other indicators/concepts: Pending casesPercentage of otherwise closed

casesCases/persons; Type; Level

n

cycycyc

n

cyc

RJHRCR

CRRRR

1

1

)(

n

cycycyc

n

cycyc

RJHRCR

HRCRTRR

1

1

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METHODS & DATA SOURCES

Main sources of data, 2006-08

Gvt and UNHCR, 25%

NGOs, 4%Government

only, 29%

UNHCR only, 31%

Various, 12%

Basis for UNHCR data, 2006-08

Estimation only, 21%

Surveys/Various, 8%Registration &

Estimation, 18%

Registration only, 53%

Good Practice: Census questionnaire Zambia

• Purpose of immigration in 2000 population and housing census (UNHCR funded)• If foreigner, why come to this country?

• Work• Study• Asylum• Family reunification

− Work− Study− Asylum

Good practice: Country and regional networks

• European / Asian programme on forced displacement and migration• Country level network of data producers

and users• Regional network• Data exchange platform (core indicators,

website, focal point system etc.).

UNHCR AS A PARTNER

• COMPILATION/COLLECTION OF DATA ON PERSONS OF CONCERN (Over 130 countries)

• SUPPORT IN DATA COLLECTION• REPORTING/DATA DISSEMINATION

(Online database, Statistical Yearbook etc.)