The “Chinaman” Scare . . . Myth or Reality? Projections for a Non-Excluded Chinese Population Jennifer Vaughn Advisor: Gary Richardson, Economics Demographic and Social Analysis Spring 2004 Exit Exam University of California, Irvine Friday, June 4, 2004
The “Chinaman” Scare...Myth or Reality? Projections for a Non-Excluded Chinese Population
Jan 16, 2015
Demographic and Social Analysis Program Exit Exam Presentation, prepared under advisor Gary Richardson, given at the University of California, Irvine on Friday, June 4, 2004
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
The “Chinaman” Scare . . .Myth or Reality?Projections for a Non-Excluded Chinese Population
Jennifer Vaughn
Advisor: Gary Richardson, Economics
Demographic and Social Analysis
Spring 2004 Exit Exam
University of California, Irvine
Friday, June 4, 2004
The Big Questions
Did the native-born American population really need to fear conquest of their “race” by the growing Chinese population?
Did white unskilled laborers in 19th
century America really need to fear increasing competition from Chinese immigrants?
The Chinese Problem
Sources: US Historical Census Data Browser; Ipums-”Occupations-1950 Basis”
1850 1860 1870 1880
US Population (100%)
Total 23,054,152 31,183,744 38,155,505 49,371,340
Chinese 34,933 56,186 93,923
Chinese % of Total 0.11% 0.15% 0.19%
% Change for Chinese 60.84% 67.16%
Farm Wage Workers (1%)
Total 2,942 8,561 29,817 34,316
Chinese 1 16 90
Chinese % of Total 0.01% 0.05% 0.26%
% Change for Chinese 1500.00% 462.50%
Mine Laborers (1%)
Total 868 1,479 1,710 2,753
Chinese 66 120 211
Chinese % of Total 4.46% 7.02% 7.66%
% Change for Chinese 81.82% 75.83%
Laborers, misc. (1%)
Total 6,170 8,428 11,661 20,137
Chinese 66 43 228
Chinese % of Total 0.78% 0.37% 1.13%
% Change for Chinese -34.85% 430.23%
Chinese Growth in the United States
The Chinese Problem in CA
Sources: US Historical Census Data Browser
1850 1860 1870 1880
CA Population (100%)
Total 92,597 379,994 560,247 864,694
Chinese 34,933 49,310 75,218
Chinese % of Total 9.19% 8.80% 8.70%
% Change for Chinese 41.16% 52.54%
Chinese Population Growth in California
Legislation against Chinese
• Burlingame-Seward Treaty (1868)
• Page Law (1875)
• Chinese Exclusion Treaty (1880)
• Chinese Exclusion Act (1882)
Methods for Answering the Questions
What would the Chinese population in the United States have looked like had there been no post-1880 exclusion?
Cohort-Component Population Projections
Census 1860 (History Machine Version 2.0. © 1995 University of Maryland)
Census 1880 (NAPP)
TFRs (Coale & Zelnik, 1963)
Life Expectation (US Dept of Commerce, 1975
Chinese Immigration (US House, 1903)
Chinese Population Projections
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1860 1870 1880 1900
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Ch
inese P
ers
on
s
No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig Linear Exponential
1850 1860 1870 1880
US Population
Total 23,054,152 31,183,744 38,155,505 49,371,340
Chinese 34,933 56,186 93,923
Chinese % of Total 0.11% 0.15% 0.19%
% Change for Chinese 60.84% 67.16%
Chinese Growth in the United States
US Population No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig Linear Regression Exponential Fit
Total 75,994,575 75,994,575 75,994,575 75,994,575 75,994,575
Chinese 79,198 327,101 298,639 150,166 250,909
Chinese % of Total 0.10% 0.43% 0.39% 0.20% 0.33%
% Change for Chinese -15.68% 248.27% 217.96% 59.88% 167.14%
1900
Future Research
Un-grouping Chinese from other “Asiatics” (1860 Census)
Representative vital rates
Projections for Chinese immigration without exclusion
Any Questions?
Sources
• Coale, A.J. and M. Zelnik. New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963.
• History Machine Version 2.0. © 1995 University of Maryland
• North Atlantic Population Project and Minnesota Population Center. NAPP: Complete Count Microdata. Preliminary Version NAPP 0.2 [computer files]. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center [distributor], 2001. Accessed on May 24, 2004: <http://www.nappdata.org>
•Ruggles, S. and M. Sobek et al. “Occupations – 1950 Basis.” Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 3.0. Minneapolis: Historical Census Projects, University of Minnesota, 2003. Accessed on April 30, 2004: <http://www.ipums.org>
• U.S. Department of Commerce. (1975). “Expectation of Life at Specified Ages, by Sex, for Massachusetts: 1850 to 1949-51.” Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part 1. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
• U.S. House. (1903). Annual report of the Commissioner-General of Immigration for the fiscal year ended June, 30, 1903. (H.Doc. 758, 58-2). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
•University of Virginia Geospatial and Statistical Data Center. United States Historical Census Data Browser, 1998. Accessed on May 24, 2004: <http://fisher.lib.verginia.edu/census/>
Source: US House, 1903
Chinese Immigration Trends
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1857
1859
1861
1863
1865
1867
1869
1871
1873
1875
1877
1879
Year
Nu
mb
er
to C
hin
ese
Imm
igra
nts
Average Total: 9,143 Chinese Immigrants per year
Males Females
1850 38.3 40.5
1855 38.7 40.9
1878-82 41.7 43.5
1890 42.5 44.5
Expectation of Life at Birth
Source: US Dept of Commerce, 1975
1860 5.21 1870 4.55 1880 4.24
1861 5.07 1871 4.55 1881 4.28
1862 4.72 1872 4.58 1882 4.25
1863 4.38 1873 4.57 1883 4.29
1864 4.26 1874 4.54 1884 4.29
1865 4.34 1875 4.55 1885 4.23
1866 4.47 1876 4.45 1886 4.11
1867 4.56 1877 4.37 1887 4.06
1868 4.54 1878 4.27 1888 4.06
1869 4.57 1879 4.23 1889 3.99
1890 3.87
Total Fertility Rates (1860-1890)
Source: Coale & Zelnik, 1963
1857 4,524 1869 12,874
1858 7,183 1870 15,740
1859 8,215 1871 7,135
1860 6,117 1872 7,788
1861 6,094 1873 20,291
1862 4,174 1874 13,776
1863 5,280 1875 16,437
1864 5,240 1876 22,781
1865 3,702 1877 10,594
1866 1,872 1878 8,992
1867 8,519 1879 9,604
1868 6,707 1880 5,802
Recorded Chinese Immigration
Sources: US House, 1903
Asiatic Males and Females
Enumerated 1860
-8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 79
80+
Males Females
Projected 1880
(no migration)
-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 79
80+
Males Females
Enumerated
1880 Census
-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 79
80+
Males Females
Projected 1900
(no migration)
-16000 -14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 79
80+
Males Females
Projected 1900
(first estimate for net migration)
-70,000 -60,000 -50,000 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 79
80+
Males Females
Projected 1900
(second estimate for net migration)
-60,000 -50,000 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 79
80+
Males Females
Year No Mig 1st mig 2nd Mig
1860 34,928 34,928 34,928
1870 56,186 56,186 56,186
1880 104,441 104,441 104,441
1900 79,198 327,101 298,639
Year No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig
1860 33,144 33,144 33,144
1870 56,186 56,186 56,186
1880 98,968 98,968 98,968
1900 71,611 310,165 284,469
Year No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig
1860 1,784 1,784 1,784
1870 56,186 56,186 56,186
1880 5,473 5,473 5,473
1900 7,587 16,936 14,170
Males
Females
Projected Chinese Total PopulationTotal
Related Documents
