The American Church Research Project © 2008 by David T. Olson 1 The Case for Church Planting 2008 Edition.

The American Church Research Project © 2008 by David T. Olson

www.TheAmericanChurch.org1

The Case for The Case for Church PlantingChurch Planting

2008 Edition



• They are composed of 68,510,978 babies born here and 22,873,578 new immigrants.

1. There are 91,384,566 new people in the United States today who were not here in 1990.



68,510,978

22,873,578

91,384,556

-39,611,000

51,773,556

Births Net Immigrants Total New People

Deaths

Net Gain in Population

1990 - 2006 Population Growth by Births, Immigration and Death



• Numbers from actual counts of people in orthodox Christian churches show that 20.4% of the population attended church on any given weekend in 1990. That percentage dropped to 18.7% in 2000, and to 17.0% in 2007.

• The percentage attending Mainline and Catholic churches declined more quickly from 2000 – 2007 than it did in the 1990’s, while the evangelical percentage declined only slightly. The Catholic church’s decline in percentage attendance occurred even though its membership numbers are keeping up with population growth.

2. The Percentage of People Attending a Christian Church each Weekend Decreased Significantly from 1990 - 2007.



9.2% 9.1% 9.0%

3.9% 3.3%2.8%

7.2%6.2%

5.1%

20.4%

18.7%

17.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total

Percentage of the Population Attending Church on any Given Weekend in 2007



• The three slides shows the yearly numeric gain of Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches on any given weekend. It shows the yearly gain or decline in attendance in the 1990’s, 2000 – 2005, 2005 - 2006 and 2006 - 2007. (Note - these numbers do not factor in population growth.)

• Evangelical church growth slowed down significantly in the last year – from an average growth throughout this decade of 0.8%, to a gain of only 0.3% in the last year.

• Mainline churches declined faster than before, while Catholic churches saw the steep decline in the early part of this decade slow down over the past few years.

3. Church attendance has been slowing down in this decade.



1.0%

0.9%

0.6%

0.3%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1990 - 2000 2000 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007

Evangelical Yearly Numeric Attendance Growth from 1990 - 2007



-0.3%

-1.2%

-1.7%

-2.5%-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

1990 - 2000 2000 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007

Mainline Yearly Numeric Attendance Growth from 1990 - 2007



-0.3%

-1.9%

-1.1%

-1.2%

-2.0%

-1.8%

-1.6%

-1.4%

-1.2%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

1990 - 2000 2000 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007

Catholic Yearly Numeric Attendance Growth from 1990 - 2007



4. Which is the only State to Grow in Church Attendance faster than Population Growth during this Decade??



Growth or Decline in thePercentage of the PopulationAttending a Christian Church

from 2000 - 2007

-17.6%RI

-17.5%WI

-15.5%MA

-14.6%CT

-14.4%ME

-14.3%NM

-14.2%NY

-13.1%OR

-12.7%NJ

-12.0%AZ

-11.8%VT

-11.5%WY

-11.0%AK -10.8%

FL

-10.8%SD

-10.3%NH

-9.7%MN

-9.5%IL

-9.4%PA

-9.0%ID

-8.7%NE

-8.6%IA

-8.5%TX

-8.2%LA

-7.9%OH

-7.5%CO

-7.4%NC

-7.2%WV-7.0%

MO-6.8%MD

-6.8%WA

-6.6%UT

-6.6%MI

-6.6%GA

-6.3%IN

-5.8%KS

-5.6%TN

-5.6%MT

-5.6%CA

-4.4%SC

-4.3%DE-4.2%

VA

-3.9%ND

-3.8%MS

-3.6%KY

-3.0%OK

-1.9%NV

-1.6%AL

-0.8%AR

4.6%HI

DeclineGrowth



5. Here is the Evangelical Attendance Percentage map for 2007. Over half of Evangelical attendance is from the South. The second slide shows which states are seeing Evangelical churches growing faster than population growth.



Percentage of the PopulationAttending an Evangelical ChurchOn Any Given Weekend in 2007

1.3%UT

1.6%RI

2.0%NH2.1%

VT

2.6%MA

3.0%ME

3.3%CT3.9%

NJ4.1%NV

4.2%NY

5.8%DE

5.9%ID

6.0%PA

6.2%WY

6.5%CA

6.6%HI

6.7%ND

6.8%AZ 6.9%

NM

7.3%WI

7.6%MN

7.7%MT

7.8%WV

7.8%CO

7.9%WA

7.9%IL

8.0%AK

8.1%IA8.3%

NE

8.3%OR

8.4%MD

8.4%OH

8.5%SD

8.6%FL

9.1%MI

10.3%TX

10.5%KS

10.6%VA

11.9%IN

12.1%MO

14.1%NC

14.8%LA

15.2%KY

15.9%SC

16.5%OK

16.7%GA

17.7%TN

20.1%MS

20.3%AR

21.0%AL

0.0% to 5.8%5.8% to 7.6%7.6% to 8.6%8.6% to 14.1%14.1% to 22.0%



Growth or Decline in thePercentage of the Population

Attending an Evangelical Churchfrom 2000 - 2007

-9.5%NM

-7.8%NE

-6.6%NC

-6.3%AK

-5.6%OR

-5.2%TX

-4.9%DE

-4.3%TN

-4.0%GA

-3.5%WI-3.2%

SD

-3.1%ID

-2.9%SC

-2.9%FL

-2.8%MS

-2.4%WY

-1.9%AL

-1.7%NY

-1.6%LA

-1.2%IL

-0.9%AZ

-0.7%OK -0.3%

AR

-0.3%WA

-0.1%CA

-0.1%MI

0.3%CO

0.5%MO

0.7%ND

1.0%VA1.2%

KY

1.4%IN

1.6%OH

1.6%MT

1.7%WV

2.1%CT

2.7%NH

2.9%MD

3.1%UT

3.1%ME

3.7%IA

3.9%KS

3.9%NJ

4.0%MN

6.5%PA

7.2%MA

8.9%NV

12.2%HI

13.0%RI

17.9%VT

DeclineGrowth



• The next slide shows the growth rate of Protestant churches based on the year they were started. Once churches enter their second generation of life (40+ years old), on average they consistently decline.

6. Established Churches are Declining in Attendance by 2 percent each year.



-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Before1800

1810's 1830's 1850's 1870's 1890's 1910's 1930's 1950's 1970's 1990's

2006-2007 Attendance Growth or Decline by Decade Foundeded



• The next slide shows the growth rate of Evangelical churches from 2006 – 2007, sorted by size.

7. The Next Slide Show the Growth Rates of Evangelical Churches Sorted by Size.



2.5%

-1.1%

-1.7%

-2.4% -2.3%

-2.1%

-2.3%

-1.4%

-0.5%

2.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1-49 50-99 100-149 150-199 200-299 300-399 400-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000+

2006-2007 Church Attendance Growth by Size



Pentecostal, ‘Christian’ and ‘Other’ families will be growing, while Baptist, Methodist, Lutheran, Reformed and Catholic families will decline between now and 2050.

8. Attendance at the 8 Denominational Families Will Differ Greatly in the Future.



9,855,314

10,867,93711,296,580 11,218,838 11,027,292

10,475,911

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

Baptist Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



4,385,5284,464,533

4,334,596

4,009,456

3,320,427

1,977,570

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

Methodist Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



2,829,330 2,798,456

2,625,255

2,390,944

1,764,423

716,564

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

Lutheran Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



1,961,7042,005,602

1,934,9851,835,072

1,607,458

1,081,475

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

Reformed Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



3,183,075

3,842,8664,179,440

4,397,052

4,994,728

7,354,757

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

Pentecostal Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



2,610,1622,729,062

2,793,900 2,847,1082,985,473

3,449,607

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

Christian Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



17,787,39217,279,041

15,990,68115,462,512

14,330,964

12,180,585

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

Catholic Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



7,036,2307,297,630

7,511,417 7,578,7717,780,027

8,704,239

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

'Other' Church Attendance 1990 to 2050



9. The Current Increase In The Number Of Churches Is Only About One Quarter Of What Is Needed To Keep Up With Population Growth.

• The next slide shows the increase in the number of churches from 2000-2008. The fourth column shows the net gain: 3,937 more churches for these 8 years. The final column shows the number of new churches that would have been needed in that decade to keep up with population growth (2000 – 2008 population growth times the number of churches in 2000 = 24,240).

• This means that the net gain in churches is about one sixth of what would have been needed to keep up with population growth. Two thousand five hundred additional new churches are needed per year to keep up with population growth.



7,278

-2,835

-458

3,937

24,240

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Evangelical Mainline Catholic New Gain Needed to Keep upwith Populaiton

Growth

Net Gain in Churches 2000-2008



The final slide shows the projections for the percentage of the population attending a Christian Church from 1990 – 2050. The number of Americans attending church will decline only slightly, but church will not com close to keeping up with population growth, so will decline in attendance percentage every year.

10. The Future of the American Church.



20.4%

18.7%

17.0%16.2%

14.2%

10.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1990 2000 2007 2010 (est) 2020 (est) 2050 (est)

This is the Future of the American Church Attendance Percentageif Nothing Changes



Keys to Planting

• Mammalian

• Parenting

• Assessment

• Launch Process

• Coaching



Information on the Information

• The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.

• Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.

• African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. This was combined with the known attendance at about 10,000 African Americans churches to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible for each county.

• Independent church data is difficult to obtain. (There are actually many fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.

• In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.

• Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.

• This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 21% and 23% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox Christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 24% – 26%.



This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church

attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 15 years for over 200,000 individual churches.

It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 305,000 orthodox Christian churches.1

1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2007 percentage to 19.0%.



For More Information . . . • Presentations such as this are available for

the largest 90 Metropolitan Areas in the United States, for each State and for the Nation as a whole. Presentations can be downloaded immediately. A Combo Pack for each state is also available, which includes the National, State and any Metro PowerPoints from that state. For ordering information, please go to

www.theamericanchurch.org

The American Church Research Project © 2008 by David T. Olson 1 The Case for Church Planting 2008 Edition.

Documents

church attendance

evangelical church growth

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death slide

edition slide

population growth

catholic churches

evangelical percentage