0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh/ y 0% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2% 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Other India and China Developing Asia Africa and Middle East Share of global electricity generation (%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 EJ/y 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Other India and China Developing Asia Africa and Middle East GEOTHERMAL HEAT AND POWER ROADMAP Key findings By 2050, geothermal electricity generation could reach 1 400 TWh per year, i.e. around 3.5% of global electricity production, avoiding almost 800 megatonnes (Mt) of CO 2 emissions per year. Geothermal heat 1 could contribute 5.8 EJ (1 600 TWh thermal energy) annually by 2050, i.e. 3.9% of projected final energy for heat. In the period to 2030, rapid expansion of geothermal electricity and heat production will be dominated by accelerated deployment of conventional high-temperature hydrothermal resources, driven by relatively attractive economics but limited to areas where such resources are available. Deployment of low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal resources in deep aquifers will also grow quickly, reflecting wider availability and increasing interest in their use for both heat and power. By 2050, more than half of the projected increase comes from exploitation of ubiquitously available hot rock resources, mainly via enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). 2 Substantially higher research, development and demonstration (RD&D) resources are needed in the next decades to ensure EGS becomes commercially viable by 2030. A holistic policy framework is needed that addresses technical barriers relating to resource assessment, accessing and engineering the resource, geothermal heat use and advanced geothermal technologies. Moreover, such a holistic framework needs to address barriers relating to economics, regulations, market facilitation and RD&D support. Policy makers, local authorities and utilities need to be more aware of the full range of geothermal resources available and of their possible applications in order to develop consistent policies accordingly. This is particularly true for geothermal heat, which can be used at varying temperatures for a wide variety of tasks. Important R&D priorities for geothermal energy include accelerating resource assessment, development of more competitive drilling technology and improving EGS technology as well as managing health, safety and environmental (HSE) concerns. Advanced technologies for offshore, geo-pressured and super-critical (or even magma) resources could unlock a huge additional resource base. Where reasonable, co-produced hot water from oil and gas wells can be turned into an economic asset. © 2011, OECD/IEA 1. Ground source heat pump technology, also known as “shallow geothermal technology”, is not included in this roadmap. 2. Although the preferred wording of EGS is still being discussed, for this roadmap the IEA has chosen to use Enhanced Geothermal Systems, abbreviated as EGS. Roadmap vision of geothermal power production by region (TWh/y) Roadmap vision of direct use of geothermal heat by region, excluding ground source heat pumps (EJ/y)
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0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h/y
0%
0.5%
1%
1.5%
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Other
India and China
Developing Asia
Africa and Middle East
Share of globalelectricity generation (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
EJ/y
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Other
India and China
Developing Asia
Africa and Middle East
GEOTHERMAL HEAT AND POWER ROADMAP
Key findings
By 2050, geothermal electricity generation could reach 1 400 TWh per year, i.e. around 3.5% of global electricity production, avoiding almost 800 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 emissions per year.
Geothermal heat1 could contribute 5.8 EJ (1 600 TWh thermal energy) annually by 2050, i.e. 3.9% of projected final energy for heat.
In the period to 2030, rapid expansion of geothermal electricity and heat production will be dominated by accelerated deployment of conventional high-temperature hydrothermal resources, driven by relatively attractive economics but limited to areas where such resources are available. Deployment of low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal resources in deep aquifers will also grow quickly, reflecting wider availability and increasing interest in their use for both heat and power.
By 2050, more than half of the projected increase comes from exploitation of ubiquitously available hot rock resources, mainly via enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).2 Substantially higher research, development and demonstration (RD&D) resources are needed in the next decades to ensure EGS becomes commercially viable by 2030.
A holistic policy framework is needed that addresses technical barriers relating to resource assessment, accessing and engineering the resource, geothermal heat use and advanced geothermal technologies. Moreover, such a holistic framework needs to address barriers relating to economics, regulations, market facilitation and RD&D support.
Policy makers, local authorities and utilities need to be more aware of the full range of geothermal resources available and of their possible applications in order to develop consistent policies accordingly. This is particularly true for geothermal heat, which can be used at varying temperatures for a wide variety of tasks.
Important R&D priorities for geothermal energy include accelerating resource assessment, development of more competitive drilling technology and improving EGS technology as well as managing health, safety and environmental (HSE) concerns.
Advanced technologies for offshore, geo-pressured and super-critical (or even magma) resources could unlock a huge additional resource base. Where reasonable, co-produced hot water from oil and gas wells can be turned into an economic asset.
© 2
011,
OEC
D/I
EA
Geothermal heat and power roadmap milestones
205020302010 20402020
Consider introduction of policies to cover the fi nancial risk involved in geothermal exploration
Enhance training, education and awareness for skilled workforce along the geothermal value chain
Develop mechanisms to support geothermal deployment in developing countries and expand targeting clean energy deployment — to be phased out over time
Market facilitation and transformation
Introduce streamlined and time-effective permit procedures for geothermal development
Develop and use protocols to create community support for EGS and understanding about micro seismicity
Regulatory framework and support schemes
Introduce differentiated economic incentive schemes for both electricity and heat - to be phased out over time
Set medium-term targets for (nearly) mature technologies and long-term targetsfor advanced technologies for geothermal electricity and heat Monitor of progress against targets
Stakeholders: Government
R&D and industry
Development banks, NGO’s
International Energy Agency www.iea.org/roadmaps
Technology development and RD&D
Develop EGS pilot plants in different geologic environments, develop standardized stimulation techniques and decision tools for optimal reservoir modelling, improve management of health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues, ensure long term production and scale up EGS to realize 50 to 200+ MW plants
50 more EGS plants (average 10 MW) needed by 2020 Scale up to 20 MW EGS plants Scale up to 50 MW EGS plants Scale up to 200 MW EGS plants
Improve geothermal resource assessment to accelerate geothermal development by developing publicly available databases, by ensuring an integrated approach for EGS identifi cation and by developing geothermal tools for identifying hot rock and hydrothermal resources
Increase effi ciency and performance of CHP
Explore expansion of possibilities for geothermal heat use
Improve accessing and engineering the resource by developing cheaper drilling technologies, by improving hard rock and high-temperature/high-pressure drilling and by improving downhole instrumentation and well monitoring
Reduce drilling costs by 10% Reduce drilling costs by 10% Introduce new drillingconcepts
Explore feasibility of alternative hydrothermal and hot rock resources
Co-produced water from oiland gas wells
Super-critical fl uids Off-shore geothermal, magma
Increased RD&D funding and international collaboration: resource databases, drilling technology, EGS technology, heat use and HSE issues
Ensure sustained RD&D funding on novel drilling concepts, advanced technologies and up-scale EGS
1. Ground source heat pump technology, also known as “shallow geothermal technology”, is not included in this roadmap.
2. Although the preferred wording of EGS is still being discussed, for this roadmap the IEA has chosen to use Enhanced Geothermal Systems, abbreviated as EGS.
Roadmap vision of geothermalpower production by region (TWh/y)
Roadmap vision of direct use of geothermal heatby region, excluding ground source heat pumps (EJ/y)
Key actions over the next 10 years
www.iea.org/roadmaps © 2
011,
OEC
D/I
EA
Regional geothermal heat and power production and shares of cumulative global production
z Establish medium-term targets for mature and nearly mature technologies and long-term targets for advanced technologies, thereby increasing investor confidence and accelerating expansion of geothermal heat and power.
z Introduce differentiated economic incentive schemes for both geothermal heat (which has received less attention to date) and geothermal power, with incentives phasing out as technologies reach full competitiveness.
z Develop publicly available databases, protocols and tools for geothermal resource assessment and ongoing reservoir management to help spread expertise and accelerate development.
z Introduce streamlined and time-effective procedures for issuing permits for geothermal development.
z Provide sustained and substantially higher research, development and demonstration (RD&D) resources to plan and develop at least 50 more EGS pilot plants during the next 10 years.
z Expand and disseminate the knowledge of EGS technology to enhance production, resource sustainability and the management of health, safety and environmental (HSE) performance.
z In developing countries, expand the efforts of multilateral and bilateral aid organisations to develop rapidly the most attractive available hydrothermal resources, by addressing economic and non-economic barriers.
Growth of geothermal power capacities by technology (GW)
Range of reduction of average levelised costs of electricity (LCOE) production in hydrothermal flash plants and binary plants
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n2020 2030 2040 2050
0.03
0.06
0.174
14
86
17 34
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.360.92
2.26
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
86
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2020 2030 2040 2050
343
49
1.52
0.42
0.20
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2020 2030 2040 2050
75
0.33
0.03
0.07
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
3
15
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.13 0.33
1.22
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.004 0.02 0.07
44895
35
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
India and China
95
20
13
101
OECD North America
OECD Europe
Developing Asia
Africa and Middle East OECD Pacific
Total electricity production (TWh)
Total heat production (EJ)EJ
TWh
Regional development geothermal power capacity 2020-2030-2050 (GWe)
Africa and Middle East
Developing Asia India and
ChinaOECD Pacific OECD Europe
OECD North America
Other World
2020 1 5 0 2 3 7 2 22
2030 2 14 2 3 5 13 7 46
2050 12 64 15 11 14 49 35 200
Africa and Middle East
Developing Asia India and
ChinaOECD Pacific OECD Europe
OECD North America
Other World
2020 3 0 13 3 35 19 3 76
2030 6 1 32 7 90 41 7 184
2050 16 6 119 32 221 148 24 566
Regional development geothermal heat capacity (ground source heat pumps excluded) 2020-2030-2050 (GWth)
KEY MESSAGE: In addition to the 10 EGS plants currently under development, at least 50 more with an average capacity of 10 MW will be needed over the next 10 years to achieve the deployment levels envisaged in this roadmap.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GW
EGS
202050 (10MW)EGS plants
Low temperature(hydrothermal)binary plants
High temperature
flash plants(hydrothermal)
LCOE flash plants
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
LCOE binary plants
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
US
D/M
Wh
Wholesale electricity costs developmentin ETP 2010 BLUE Map scenario (global average)
KEY MESSAGE: Costs of electricity production in flash plants, in many situations already competitive, are estimated to continue to fall at a moderate rate towards 2050. For binary (hydrothermal) plants, working with lower-temperature resources, costs will decrease to competitive levels as capacities increase.
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h/y
0%
0.5%
1%
1.5%
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Other
India and China
Developing Asia
Africa and Middle East
Share of globalelectricity generation (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
EJ/y
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Other
India and China
Developing Asia
Africa and Middle East
GEOTHERMAL HEAT AND POWER ROADMAP
Key findings
By 2050, geothermal electricity generation could reach 1 400 TWh per year, i.e. around 3.5% of global electricity production, avoiding almost 800 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 emissions per year.
Geothermal heat1 could contribute 5.8 EJ (1 600 TWh thermal energy) annually by 2050, i.e. 3.9% of projected final energy for heat.
In the period to 2030, rapid expansion of geothermal electricity and heat production will be dominated by accelerated deployment of conventional high-temperature hydrothermal resources, driven by relatively attractive economics but limited to areas where such resources are available. Deployment of low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal resources in deep aquifers will also grow quickly, reflecting wider availability and increasing interest in their use for both heat and power.
By 2050, more than half of the projected increase comes from exploitation of ubiquitously available hot rock resources, mainly via enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).2 Substantially higher research, development and demonstration (RD&D) resources are needed in the next decades to ensure EGS becomes commercially viable by 2030.
A holistic policy framework is needed that addresses technical barriers relating to resource assessment, accessing and engineering the resource, geothermal heat use and advanced geothermal technologies. Moreover, such a holistic framework needs to address barriers relating to economics, regulations, market facilitation and RD&D support.
Policy makers, local authorities and utilities need to be more aware of the full range of geothermal resources available and of their possible applications in order to develop consistent policies accordingly. This is particularly true for geothermal heat, which can be used at varying temperatures for a wide variety of tasks.
Important R&D priorities for geothermal energy include accelerating resource assessment, development of more competitive drilling technology and improving EGS technology as well as managing health, safety and environmental (HSE) concerns.
Advanced technologies for offshore, geo-pressured and super-critical (or even magma) resources could unlock a huge additional resource base. Where reasonable, co-produced hot water from oil and gas wells can be turned into an economic asset.
© 2
011,
OEC
D/I
EA
Geothermal heat and power roadmap milestones
205020302010 20402020
Consider introduction of policies to cover the fi nancial risk involved in geothermal exploration
Enhance training, education and awareness for skilled workforce along the geothermal value chain
Develop mechanisms to support geothermal deployment in developing countries and expand targeting clean energy deployment — to be phased out over time
Market facilitation and transformation
Introduce streamlined and time-effective permit procedures for geothermal development
Develop and use protocols to create community support for EGS and understanding about micro seismicity
Regulatory framework and support schemes
Introduce differentiated economic incentive schemes for both electricity and heat - to be phased out over time
Set medium-term targets for (nearly) mature technologies and long-term targetsfor advanced technologies for geothermal electricity and heat Monitor of progress against targets
Stakeholders: Government
R&D and industry
Development banks, NGO’s
International Energy Agency www.iea.org/roadmaps
Technology development and RD&D
Develop EGS pilot plants in different geologic environments, develop standardized stimulation techniques and decision tools for optimal reservoir modelling, improve management of health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues, ensure long term production and scale up EGS to realize 50 to 200+ MW plants
50 more EGS plants (average 10 MW) needed by 2020 Scale up to 20 MW EGS plants Scale up to 50 MW EGS plants Scale up to 200 MW EGS plants
Improve geothermal resource assessment to accelerate geothermal development by developing publicly available databases, by ensuring an integrated approach for EGS identifi cation and by developing geothermal tools for identifying hot rock and hydrothermal resources
Increase effi ciency and performance of CHP
Explore expansion of possibilities for geothermal heat use
Improve accessing and engineering the resource by developing cheaper drilling technologies, by improving hard rock and high-temperature/high-pressure drilling and by improving downhole instrumentation and well monitoring
Reduce drilling costs by 10% Reduce drilling costs by 10% Introduce new drillingconcepts
Explore feasibility of alternative hydrothermal and hot rock resources
Co-produced water from oiland gas wells
Super-critical fl uids Off-shore geothermal, magma
Increased RD&D funding and international collaboration: resource databases, drilling technology, EGS technology, heat use and HSE issues
Ensure sustained RD&D funding on novel drilling concepts, advanced technologies and up-scale EGS
1. Ground source heat pump technology, also known as “shallow geothermal technology”, is not included in this roadmap.
2. Although the preferred wording of EGS is still being discussed, for this roadmap the IEA has chosen to use Enhanced Geothermal Systems, abbreviated as EGS.
Roadmap vision of geothermalpower production by region (TWh/y)
Roadmap vision of direct use of geothermal heatby region, excluding ground source heat pumps (EJ/y)
Key actions over the next 10 years
www.iea.org/roadmaps © 2
011,
OEC
D/I
EA
Regional geothermal heat and power production and shares of cumulative global production
z Establish medium-term targets for mature and nearly mature technologies and long-term targets for advanced technologies, thereby increasing investor confidence and accelerating expansion of geothermal heat and power.
z Introduce differentiated economic incentive schemes for both geothermal heat (which has received less attention to date) and geothermal power, with incentives phasing out as technologies reach full competitiveness.
z Develop publicly available databases, protocols and tools for geothermal resource assessment and ongoing reservoir management to help spread expertise and accelerate development.
z Introduce streamlined and time-effective procedures for issuing permits for geothermal development.
z Provide sustained and substantially higher research, development and demonstration (RD&D) resources to plan and develop at least 50 more EGS pilot plants during the next 10 years.
z Expand and disseminate the knowledge of EGS technology to enhance production, resource sustainability and the management of health, safety and environmental (HSE) performance.
z In developing countries, expand the efforts of multilateral and bilateral aid organisations to develop rapidly the most attractive available hydrothermal resources, by addressing economic and non-economic barriers.
Growth of geothermal power capacities by technology (GW)
Range of reduction of average levelised costs of electricity (LCOE) production in hydrothermal flash plants and binary plants
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.03
0.06
0.174
14
86
17 34
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.360.92
2.26
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
86
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2020 2030 2040 2050
343
49
1.52
0.42
0.20
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2020 2030 2040 2050
75
0.33
0.03
0.07
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
3
15
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.13 0.33
1.22
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.004 0.02 0.07
44895
35
Sh
are
of
cum
ula
tive
pro
du
ctio
n
India and China
95
20
13
101
OECD North America
OECD Europe
Developing Asia
Africa and Middle East OECD Pacific
Total electricity production (TWh)
Total heat production (EJ)EJ
TWh
Regional development geothermal power capacity 2020-2030-2050 (GWe)
Africa and Middle East
Developing Asia India and
ChinaOECD Pacific OECD Europe
OECD North America
Other World
2020 1 5 0 2 3 7 2 22
2030 2 14 2 3 5 13 7 46
2050 12 64 15 11 14 49 35 200
Africa and Middle East
Developing Asia India and
ChinaOECD Pacific OECD Europe
OECD North America
Other World
2020 3 0 13 3 35 19 3 76
2030 6 1 32 7 90 41 7 184
2050 16 6 119 32 221 148 24 566
Regional development geothermal heat capacity (ground source heat pumps excluded) 2020-2030-2050 (GWth)
KEY MESSAGE: In addition to the 10 EGS plants currently under development, at least 50 more with an average capacity of 10 MW will be needed over the next 10 years to achieve the deployment levels envisaged in this roadmap.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050G
W
EGS
202050 (10MW)EGS plants
Low temperature(hydrothermal)binary plants
High temperature
flash plants(hydrothermal)
LCOE flash plants
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
LCOE binary plants
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
US
D/M
Wh
Wholesale electricity costs developmentin ETP 2010 BLUE Map scenario (global average)
KEY MESSAGE: Costs of electricity production in flash plants, in many situations already competitive, are estimated to continue to fall at a moderate rate towards 2050. For binary (hydrothermal) plants, working with lower-temperature resources, costs will decrease to competitive levels as capacities increase.
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