Technology Management and Strategy [Part I]

Thanakrit [email protected]

Technology Management and Strategy [Part I]

Technology Readiness

Technology Assessment

Technology Forecasting

TechnologyHuman Interaction

Technology Roadmapping

TechnologyForesight

TechnologyIntelligence

Future Studies / Future Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

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Technology Readiness

A Critical Technology Element (CTE) is a new or novel technology that a platform or system depends on to achieve successful development or production or to successfully meet a system operational threshold requirement. Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) are a method of

estimating technology maturity of CTE of a program during the Acquisition Process. They are determine during a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) that examines program concepts,

technology requirements, and demonstrated technology capabilities.

Technology Readiness Assessment-Measure used to assess the maturity of evolving technologies.-Systematic, metrics-based process that assesses the maturity of, and the risk associated with, critical technologies to be used in an organization.-To increase opportunity in "Commercialized" and reduce “The Valley of Death.”

Level 1 : Basic principles observed and reported Level 2 : Concept and/or application formulatedLevel 3 : Concept demonstrated analytically or experimentallyLevel 4 : Key elements demonstrated in laboratory environmentsLevel 5 : Key elements demonstrated in relevant environmentsLevel 6 : Representative of the deliverable demonstrated in relevant environmentsLevel 7 : Final development version of the deliverable demonstrated in operational Level 8 : Actual deliverable qualified through test and demonstrationLevel 9 : Operational use of deliverable

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_levelhttp://www.nstda.or.th/nstda-km/92-km-knowledge/2770-technology-readiness-levels-

Technology AssessmentThien Tran and Tugru U Diam

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Group of TABy general approaches

Awareness TA, Strategic TA, Constructive TA, Backcasting

By institutional perspectiveAcademic TA, Industrial TA, Parliamentary TA, Executive Power TA, Laboratory TA

Classification of methods and tools

Comprehension toolkit of TA methods and techniquesEconomic Analysis

Cost/Benefit Analysis, Cost/Effective Analysis, Life-cycle Cost Assessment (LCA), Return on Investment (ROI), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate on Return (IRR), Break Even Point Analysis, Payback Period analysis, Residual Income, Total Saving, Increasing Returns analysis, Technology Value Pyramid, Real Options, Technology Balance Sheet

Expert Judgment Based Decision Tools

Methods Based on Financial Metrics

Comprehensive Models- From qualitative to quantitative methods- From sophisticated mathematical models to broad perspective conceptual frameworks

Decision AnalysisMulticriteria Decision Making, MultiAttribute Utility Theory Scoring, Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS), Delphi/Group Delphi, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Q-sort, Decision Trees, Fuzzy Logics

System Engineering/Systems AnalysisTechnology System Studies, System Dynamics, Simulation Modeling and Analysis, Interpretive Structural Model (ISM), Bimodal System Dynamic Approach, Project Management Techniques, System Optimization Techniques, Linear Integer and Non-linear programming, Technology Portfolio Analysis

Technological ForecastingS-Curve Analysis, Delphi/AHP/Q-Sort, R&D Researcher Hazard Rate Analysis, Trend Extrapolation, Correlation and causal Methods, Probabilistic Methods, Monte Carlo Simulation, Roadmapping

Information MonitoringElectronics database, Internet, Technical/Scientific Literature Reviews, Patent Searches, IP Asset Valuation

Technical Performance AssessmentStatistical Analysis, Bayesian Confidence Profile Analysis, Surveys/Questionnaires, Trial use Periods, Beta Testing, Technology Decomposition Theory, S-Curve Analysis, Human Factor Analysis, Ergonomics studies, Ease-of-Use studies, Outcome Research, Technometrics

Risk AssessmentSimulation Modeling and Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Environment Health and Safety Studies, Risk-based Decision Trees, Litigation Risk Assessment

Market AnalysisFusion Method, Market Push/Pull Analysis, Surveys/Questionnaires, S-Curve Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Multigeneration technology diffusion

Externalities/Impact AnalysisExternalities Analysis, Social Impact Analysis, Political Impact Analysis, Environmental Impact Analysis, Ethical Issues Analysis, Cultural Impact Analysis, Integrated Impact Analysis, Life Cycle Analysis

OthersTechnique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Strategic Technology Assessment Review (STAR), System Wide Benefits Value Analysis (SWBVA), Scenario-based Assessment Model (SBAM), Internet-Accessible Technology Risk, Assessment Computer System (ITRACS), Mathematical TA model, Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation (MARIA)

Gap Analysis

Candidate Technologies

Selected Technologies

Evaluation Criteria and Methodology

Technology Assessment Process

Technology AssessmentThien Tran and Tugru U Diam

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Review of Technology ForecastingNathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

- The results of technology forecasting can be used to identify research needs for filling gap between future requirements and current capabilities.

- Use to provide the direction to R&D policy and to assist R&D planning.

Based on the approach of forecasting

Classification of technology forecasting techniques

Review of Technology ForecastingNathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Classification of technology forecasting techniques

By addressing a list of main factors

Review of Technology ForecastingNathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Classification of technology forecasting techniques

By addressing a list of main factors

Review of Technology ForecastingNathasit Gerdsri, Tugrul U Daim and Guillermo Rueda

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Classification of technology forecasting techniques

By considering the nature of technology and the time horizon of the forecast

Technological Forecasting – A ReviewAyse Kaya Firat, Wei Lee Woon, Stuart Madnick

Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), Sloan School of Management,Massachusetts Institute of Technology, September 2008.

- Summarize the field of technological forecasting (TF), its techniques and applications.- Explored that funding allocation decisions are based on “objective, repeatable, and quantifiable”

decision parameters.- MIT/MIST Collaborative research project “Technological Forecasting using Data Mining and

Semantics” (TFDMS)

Future Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

There are many overlapping forms of forecasting technology developments and their impacts, including

- Technology monitoring, technology watch, technology alerts (gathering and interpreting information)- Technical intelligence and competitive intelligence (converting that information into usable

intelligence) - Technology forecasting (anticipating the direction and pace of changes)- Technology roadmapping (relating anticipated advances in technologies and products to generate

plans)- Technology assessment, and forms of impact assessment, including strategic environmental

assessment (anticipating the unintended, indirect, and delayed effects of technological changes)- Technology foresight, also national and regional foresight (effecting development strategy, often

involving participatory mechanisms)

PurposesCompanies (Competitive Technological Intelligence, CTI)

- Prioritize R&D - Plan new product development- Make strategic decisions on technology licensing, joint ventures, and so forth

Government (Technology Assessment, TA)- Impact of technological change to effecting public policy

Families of MethodsExpert Opinion

Delphi (iterative survey), Focus Groups (panels, workshops), Interviews, Participatory Techniques

Monitoring and Intelligence MethodsMonitoring (environmental scanning, technology watch), Bibliometrics (research profiling; patent analysis, text mining)

Trend Analysis Trend Extrapolation (Growth Curve Fitting), Trend Impact Analysis, Precursor Analysis, Long Wave Analysis

Statistical MethodsCorrelation Analysis, Demographics, Cross Impact Analysis, Risk Analysis, Bibliometrics

Modeling and SimulationAgent Modeling, Cross Impact Analysis, Sustainability Analysis (life cycle analysis), Causal Models, Diffusion Modeling, Complex Adaptive System Modeling (CAS)(Chaos), Systems Simulation (System Dynamics, KSIM), Technological Substitution, Scenario-simulation (gaming; interactive scenarios), Economic base modeling (input-output analysis), Technology Assessment

ScenariosScenarios (scenarios with consistency checks; scenario management), Scenario-simulation (gaming; interactive scenarios), Field Anomaly Relaxation Method (FAR)

Descriptive and Matrices Methods Analogies, Backcasting, Checklist for Impact Identification, Innovation System Modeling, Institutional Analysis, Mitigation Analysis, Morphological Analysis, Roadmapping (product-technology rodmapping), Social Impact Assessment, Multiple perspectives assessment, Organizational analysis, Requirements Analysis (needs analysis)

Valuing/Decision/Economics MethodsRelevance Trees (futures wheel), Action (options) Analysis, Cost-benefit analysis, Decision anaysis (utility analyses), Economic base modeling (input-output analysis)

CreativityBrainstorming (brainwriting; nominal group process (NGP)), Creativity Workshops (future workshops), TRIZ, Vision Generation, Science Fiction Analysis

Technological Forecasting – A ReviewAyse Kaya Firat, Wei Lee Woon, Stuart Madnick

Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), Sloan School of Management,Massachusetts Institute of Technology, September 2008.

Benefits

Individual - Dialog and communication - learning and knowledge sharing

Organizational - Integration of processes and policies - Connect business and technology strategies - Alignment of resources with market needs

ObjectivesDeveloping a corporate strategy to competitive advantage for sustainable growth and development by predicting changes

Functions and Uses- Determines the degree of details displayed by a roadmap - To enhance decision-making- Provide strategy and direction - Assist forecasting and foresight- Support knowledge and innovation management - Improve planning and coordination- Enable the integration of internal and external environments

Roadmap Architecture- The generic format is presented in the form of a time-based diagram (Components on the vertical axis and the timeframe on the horizontal axis)- Links and relationships between capabilities and requirements- Three major layers: Top (Know Why), Middle (Know What) and Bottom (Existing or potential capabilities)

Development and Implementation Approaches- Fundamental approaches: Workshop oriented export-based approach and Computer-based approach- Three stages: Initiation, development and integration

Development and Implementation Tools- Market Analysis Tools: Experience Curve, Five-Forces, SWOT, STEEP, Concept Visioning, Scenario Building- Technology Analysis Tools: Bibliometrics, Soft System Methodology (SSM), Database Tomography (DT), Technology Development Envelope (TDE), Patent Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Morphology Analysis- Supporting Tools: Quality Function Deployment (QFD), Innovation Matrix, Delphi-Scenario Writing (DSW) Method, Policy-Simulation Method, Matrix scoring method, Scenario Planning, i-System, Change Management MethodsTH

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Technology RoadmappingNathasit Gerdsri

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

The development of a roadmap can help a company …- Strengthen its competitiveness landscape by linking its technology strategy into business

strategy.- Provide a strategic direction to leverage R&D investments as well as to lead the company’s

innovation activities.- Have the required technologies and infrastructures ready when needed. Variation od technology roadmaps- Science/research roadmaps - Technology roadmaps- Cross-industry roadmaps - Product-technology roadmaps- Industry roadmaps

The step-by-step analysis

Technology RoadmappingNathasit Gerdsri

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Three stages of TRM implementation

Technology RoadmappingNathasit Gerdsri

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Key players involving in TRM implementation

Technology RoadmappingNathasit Gerdsri

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Three stages of TRM implementation

Technology RoadmappingNathasit Gerdsri

Technology Assessment: Forecasting Future Adoption of Emerging Technologies,Operations and Technology Management, Vol. 10 (2011)

Key success factors in TRM implementation

Critical components to the success of TRM implementation are people, processes and data. Associated with these three components, the following is the summary of factors contributing the success of TRM implementation.

-Clear business needs.-Commitment from senior management.-Right people/functions involved.-Desire to develop effective business processes.-Company culture supporting the group participation in the process.-Timing and planning of the initiate.-Clear and effective process for developing an ongoing TRM.-Effective tools, techniques and methods.-Effective facilitation and training.-Required data information and knowledge.