Technologies with Rapid Rates of Improvement: Which technologies and why? What does this tell us about the future

Rapid Rates of Improvement : Which Technologies and Why?

What does this tell us about the future?

Associate Prof Jeffrey Funk

National University of Singapore

More details on these ideas can be found in

1) What Drives Exponential Improvements? California Management Review, May 2013

2) Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries, Stanford University Press, January 2013

3) Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about the future? forthcoming 2014

4) http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

How Objective are we?

Can we effectively think about the “future of

technology” without understanding rates of

improvement?

◦ Without improvements, how will the status quo

change

◦ Some technologies experience more rapid rates

of improvement than do other technologies

What happens when we don’t understand rates

of improvement?

Cognitive Biases

Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman

People assess relative importance of issues, including new technologies ◦ by ease of retrieving from memory

◦ largely determined by extent of coverage in media

◦ E.g., media talks about solar, wind, battery-powered vehicles, bio-fuels and thus many think they are have rapid rates of improvement - but only some are

Second, judgments and decisions are guided directly by feelings of liking and disliking ◦ One person invested in Ford because he “liked” their

products – but was Ford stock undervalued?

◦ Many people “like” some technologies and dislike others without considering rates of improvement

Source: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, 2011

Isn’t there a more deliberate and logical way?

Understanding rates of improvement can help firms,

universities, and governments better understand when

new technologies might become economically feasible

Technologies must have some level of performance and

price for specific applications before they begin to diffuse ◦ Technologies that experience faster rates of improvement are more likely to

become economically feasible….

◦ They are also more likely to become economically feasible for increasing

number of applications and thus diffuse…

◦ This has implications for R&D policy and solving global problems

But which technologies are experiencing rapid rates of

improvement and why?

Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate/Year Integrated Circuits Number of transistors per chip 1971-2011 38%

MEMS Number of Electrodes/Eye 2002-2013 45.6%

Drops/second for printer 1985-2009 61%

Organic Transistors Mobility (cm2/ Volt-seconds) 1994-2007 101%

Carbon Nanotube

Transistors

1/Purity (% metallic) 1999-2011 32.1%

Density (per micrometer) 2006-2011 357%

Superconducting

Josephson Junctions

1/Clock period 1990-2010 20.3%

1/Bit energy 1990-2010 19.8%

Qubit Lifetimes 1999-2012 142%

Bits per Qubit lifetime 2005-2013 137%

Photonics Number of Optical Channels 2005-2011 91.9%

Computers Instructions per unit time 1979-2009 35.9%

Instructions per time and dollar 1979-2009 52.2%

Quantum Computers Number of Qubits 2002-2012 107%

Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements

(Information Transformation)

Technology

Domain

Sub-

Technology

Dimensions of

measure

Time

Period

Rate/

Year Information

Storage

Magnetic

Storage

Areal recording density of

disks

1991-2011 55.7%

Areal recording density of

tape

1993-2011 32.1%

Information

Transmission

Last Mile

Bandwidth

Bits per second 1982-2010 48.7%

Wireless Bits per unit time 1980-2008 104.0%

Materials

Transformation

Carbon

Nanotubes

1/Minimum Theoretical

Energy for Production

1999-2008 86.3%

Biological

Trans-

formation

DNA Sequencing per unit cost 2001-2013 146%

Synthesizing per unit cost 2002-2010 84.3%

Cellulosic

Ethanol

Output per cost 2001-2012 13.9%



Technology

Domain

Sub-

Technology

Dimensions of

measure

Time Period Rate Per

Year Energy Trans-

formation

Light Emitting

Diodes (LEDs)

Luminosity per Watt 1965-2008 31%

Lumens per Dollar 2000-2010 40.5%

Organic LEDs Luminosity per Watt 1987-2005 29%

GaAs Lasers Power/length-bar 1987-2007 30%

LCDs Square meters per

dollar

2001-2011 11.0%

Quantum Dot

Displays

External Efficiency 1994-2009 79.0%

Solar Cells Peak Watt Per Dollar 2004-2013 21.0%

Photo-sensors

(Camera chips)

Pixels per dollar 1983-2013 48.7%

Light sensitivity 1986-2008 18%

Energy

Transmission

Super-

conductors

Current-length per

dollar

2004-2010 115%

What Drives Rapid Improvements? Drivers of improvements

◦ 1) creating new materials (and often associated processes) to better exploit physical phenomena

◦ 2) geometric scaling: increases and reductions in scale

◦ Some technologies directly experience improvements while higher-level “systems” indirectly experience

Rapid improvements are driven by them when ◦ “Creating new materials” lead to rapid improvements

when new classes of materials are being created

◦ Technologies that benefit from reductions in scale (e.g., integrated circuits) have more rapid rates than those benefitting from increases (e.g., engines)

A summary of these ideas can also be found in



3) Exponential Change: what drives it? what does it tell us about the future? forthcoming 2014


What do these Technologies tell us about the Future?

No end to Moore’s Law? ◦ Better Integrated Circuits and Computing

◦ “Big Data” Analysis enables better management of systems including “energy systems”

The Cyborg Era? ◦ Better bio-electronics and health care

◦ DNA sequencing

Cleaner transportation

Clean energy production

No End to Moore’s Law

Improvements in existing ICs will probably continue for at least 15 years ◦ Smaller wavelength light sources (13 nm or 1/10 as small as previous) will take us from 22 to 5 nm (nanometer) feature sizes

◦ 3D ICs enable multiple layers of transistors

New technologies will be available before then Photonics, carbon nanotubes, ultra-thin materials including graphene, Josephson (Quantum computers)

Smaller features, i.e., “reductions in scale,” lead to better ICs (more transistors per IC chip, faster speeds, greater functionality,

lower power consumption per transistor)

New Technologies are also becoming available for ICs

Photonics for faster connections between transistors

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) for channel layer

Ultra-thin materials to replace silicon Superconducting Josephson junctions (for Quantum computers)

Most of these involve creation of new materials and processes for them ◦ And some reductions in scale (photonics)

Photonics (Optical Connections) is Another Layer on a 3D Chip

http://www.slashgear.com/ibm-silicon-nanophotonics-speeds-servers-with-25gbps-light-10260108/

IBM silicon nanophotonics speeds servers with 25Gbps light, Chris Davies, Dec 10th 2012

Improvements in CNTs for Transistor Channels

Electronics: The road to carbon nanotube transistors, Aaron D. Franklin, Nature 498, 443–444 (27 June 2013)

Ultra-Thin Materials to Replace Silicon

As of April 2013, >10 materials found that are one or a

few atoms thick

Boron nitride (insulator) has been fabricated in one-

atom sheet as has Molybdenum Sulfide

◦ Molybdenum Sulfide is semiconductor, Boron Nitride is

insulator, Graphene is for interconnect

◦ Together one atom thick flash memory devices have been

constructed (http://www.thessdreview.com/daily-news/latest-buzz/flash-

memory-to-be-based-on-2d-materials-a-single-atom-thick/)

◦ More complex devices can be constructed by doping one of

the layers

http://thessdreview.com/daily-news/latest-buzz/flash-memory-to-be-based-on-2d-materials-a-single-atom-thick/

April 29, 2013. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/29/tech/graphene-miracle-material/index.html?hpt=hp_c3

Bit Energy = power consumed per clock period x number of active devices

RSFQ: rapid single flux quantum, relies on quantum effects in superconducting devices Source: superconductivity web21, January 16, 2012. www.istec.or.jp/web21/pdf/12_Winter/E15.pdf

Improvements in Power Consumption and Speed of

Superconducting Josephson junctions

Improvements in Josephson

junctions also enable

increases in Qubit lifetime

and number of Qubits in a

Quantum Computer

Note: Performance increases faster than does

number of Qubits, Google bought a quantum

computer from D-Wave in 2013.

Science, Vol 339, 8 March 2013, pp. 1169-1174

http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/05/dwave-512-qubit-

quantum-computer-faster.html

Computing–“Big Data” Analysis

Improvements in ICs and computing enable more extensive data analysis of output from ◦ Particle accelerators, telescopes

◦ DNA sequencing equipment,

◦ other types of scientific and medical equipment

They also make it cheaper to create large mathematical models to make predictions, rather than pursue more efficient algorithms ◦ better translations

◦ better predictions of flu trends, inflation, health problems, loan defaults, rising food prices, and even social problems such as riots or terrorism

Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think, Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, Kenneth Cukier

Sensors Enable More Types of “Big Data” Analysis and Optimization

Higher resolution camera chips

Better MEMS (micro-electronic mechanical systems) ◦ Smaller feature size lead to higher performance

◦ Current feature sizes of 0.5 to 1.0 microns for MEMS and thus industry is like ICs were in 1980

◦ MEMS will probably have similar impact as ICs

In combination with conventional ICs, lasers, and Internet, better MEMS enables ◦ 3D scanners, printers, holographic displays

◦ eye-tracking devices, autonomous vehicles

◦ better health care and management of buildings, dams, bridges, power plants……..

Smaller feature

sizes lead to better

gas chromatographs,

ink jet printers

(drops/second and

resolution), and mobile

phone discrete

components (smaller)

Stasiak J, Richards S, and Angelos S 2009. Hewlett Packard's Inkjet MEMS Technology, Proc. of Society of SPIE:7318, Clark Ngyuen, Univ of CA, Berkeley

Improvements in ICs and Sensors are Also Improving Energy Usage

Better ICs and sensors enable better process control and better collection of data, extending the Internet to more devices

This data can improve simulation tools that are also coming from improvements in ICs

Traffic management being improved ◦ Traffic sensors, smart cards, better fare management

◦ Predictive analytics with better computers

◦ Navigation systems with better ICs and MEMS

◦ Goal should be to dramatically reduce public and private vehicle breakdowns and accidents

Consider Lighting Systems

Costs of LEDs are falling as better materials are created (higher flux/package) and size of wafers are increased (lower cost/lumen) ◦ their small size enables more

aesthetic designs

◦ by using sensors, we can create lighting systems that only illuminate those areas that are needed and when they are needed

◦ Motion, heat and other sensors track movements of humans, animals, and vehicles

http://www.globalsmtseasia.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id

=4228:printed-electronics-for-flexible-solid-state-lighting&catid=109&Itemid=115

Improvements in Wireless (from improvements in ICs)

Enable Better Lighting Systems and Greater Access to Sensors

http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/integriertesysteme/emuco/files/hipeac_trends_future.pdf

http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/integriertesysteme/





Wireless Enables Greater Access and Control of Sensors Many kinds of sensors and applications

◦ Environmental (temperature, pressure, gas content) ◦ Physiological (heart rate, brain wave, blood pressure) ◦ For vehicular and human traffic and many types of

infrastructure (factories, buildings, dams, bridges, power plants)

Data can be sent wirelessly to Internet for analysis and interpretation

The phone may become a major collection, analysis, and control point for data ◦ control and program the thermostat, lighting, and other appliances

◦ Rent bicycles, vehicles and other things to increase capacity utilization and reduce energy usage

Phones get better as Human-Computer Interfaces are Improved

Better and cheaper touch displays ◦ Create materials for “blind” typing or texture feedback

◦ Lower costs from larger substrates, new materials (e.g., OLEDs) and new processes (roll-to roll printing)

Better gesture displays ◦ Better cameras enable gestures

to be interpreted

Augmented Reality ◦ Google glasses will get better as

cameras, eye-tracking, and ICs get better

Neural interfaces ◦ Smaller features lead to better interfaces

Neural Interfaces: smaller MEMS/ electrodes lead to higher resolution



◦ “Big Data” Analysis enables better management of systems

The Cyborg Era? ◦ Better bio-electronics and health care

◦ Better DNA sequencers


More clean energy

Bio-Electronic ICs

A special type of MEMS

Benefits from reductions in scale

◦ enable reductions in sample and reagent volume, faster

reactions and response time, higher throughput, and

analysis of smaller biological materials

◦ reductions in size of electrodes have enabled increases in

eyesight; further reductions can enable 20-20 vision

Result is better

◦ point-of care diagnostic equipment

◦ implants (e.g., bionic eyes)

Bio-electronic ICs will probably have similar

impact in future as conventional ICs in past

Source: Biomaterials 29(24–25): 3393–3399

MEMS-BasedElectrode

Electrode Implanted Into Retina

Smaller feature sizes for MEMS-

based electrodes lead to better

eyesight for people who suffer

from macula

In Combination with Skin Patches, Other Sensors and Wireless

More physiological data can be collected and sent wirelessly to phones or other devices

Faster detection of health problems

Enabled by flexible materials (e.g., higher mobility of organic materials) or island-bridge design with silicon

Huanli Dong , Chengliang Wang and Wenping Hu, High Performance Organic Semiconductors for Field-Effect Transistor, Chemical

Commununications, 2010,46, 5211-5222

Improvements in Mobility of “Flexible” Organic Materials Enable

Better Conformance of Electronics to Human bodies and Organs (performance of polycrystalline silicon is 100 and single crystal silicon is 1000)

Will Mobile Phones become Main Platform for Data Collection?

Phones have high-performance processors, memories, and displays

Easy to develop and download apps

Can create accessories/attachments ◦ test strips to analyze blood, skin, saliva; check for flu, insulin and other sicknesses

◦ microscope to analyze cells

◦ electrodes for electrocardigam

◦ others for ultrasound, MRI, etc.

Improvements in human-computer interface make mobile phones easier to use

http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21567208-medical-technology-

hand-held-diagnostic-devices-seen-star-trek-are-inspiring




The Cyborg Era? ◦ better bio-electronics and health care


Human-computer Interface


More clean energy

http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/

What Drives Cost

Reductions?

New methods of sequencing

Improved lasers and cameras

to read fluorescent dyes

More parallel processing

Smaller feature sizes. Just like

ICs and MEMS, smaller

feature sizes lead to lower

costs and faster speeds

Implications of Falling Cost of Sequencing (and Synthesizing)

Enables better understanding for individuals of

risks for specific diseases

potential side effects from drugs

Faster and cheaper drug development ◦ drugs can be developed for smaller numbers of people

◦ personalized medicine

Develop better crops and materials from living organisms ◦ E.g., bio-mimicry

Green Machines for Better Crops?

Better sensors (cameras, infrared, fluorescence, lasers) and mechanical controls enable complete control and measurement over crop growth

DNA sequencing enables characterization and replication of high performing crops






Cleaner transportation ◦ But not how you think

More clean energy

Battery Performance Doubles about Once Every 15 years

But Gasoline has energy density 30 times higher!

Can we wait 75 years for adequate batteries?

High density system of charging stations ◦ Facilitated by smart grid, which is

enabled by continued improvements in Internet

◦ Users can quickly find charging stations with GPS, other sensors

◦ Reduces necessary energy density of batteries

Lower cost of power electronics enable move from mechanical to electronic controls ◦ Lower weight of vehicle reduces

required energy density of batteries

There are other options!

High density of charging stations facilitated by high temperature super-conducting (HTS) transmission lines

Autonomous vehicles enable faster moving and more densely packed vehicles ◦ Better fuel efficiency

through less congestion

◦ Their cost is falling as the cost of sensors fall

And other options!

Copper is 15-25$/kA-m

Looking Further to the Future

Carbon nanotube (CNT) or graphene-based flywheels have potential energy densities 100 times higher than do lithium-ion batteries

CNT or graphene-based automobiles would be much lighter than conventional ones and thus require much less energy storage densities in their batteries

But not 75 years in future!

Sources: Presentation by my students on April 11, 2013. Slides can be found on http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations. RIght figure:

Minimum Exergy Requirements for the Manufacturing of Carbon Nanotubes, Timothy G. Gutowski, John Y. H. Liow, Dusan P. Sekulic, IEEE,

International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technologies, Washington D.C., May 16-19, 2010

Falling Energy Cost for CNTs






Cleaner transportation ◦ But not how you think

Clean energy production

Only some have rapid rates of improvement

Like batteries, wind turbines have very slow rates of improvement (2%/year)

Cellulosic ethanol was experiencing rapid reductions in cost through increases in scale ◦ But they have recently

slowed and further reductions are needed..

Rapid reductions in cost of solar cells

plus rapid improvements in efficiency for some types of solar

cells (multi-junction III-V, multi-junction organic, organic single

junction, and quantum dot)

organic solar cells are much cheaper on a per area basis than

are other solar cells. Thus they are potentially much cheaper on

a peak-watt basis if their efficiencies are improved

Cost per peak watt of $0.25 are probably needed so we are

probably a factor of three from achieving grid parity

Cheaper

superconducting

transmission

lines facilitate

generation of

electricity in

North Africa

for Europe

(and in Mexico

for U.S.)

Source: Wikipedia

Desertec

Conclusions

We need to think more effectively about future of technology

This requires change in method of analysis ◦ from “instinctive and emotional”

◦ to “slower, more deliberative, more logical”

The future is too important to assess relative importance of technologies ◦ by ease of retrieving them from memory

◦ by letting judgments and decisions be guided by feelings of “liking” and “disliking”

It is easy to believe that certain technologies are important because ◦ the media regularly discusses them or

◦ we like them

Rates of Improvement are Important An important part of “slower, more deliberative,

more logical” method of analyzing technologies is ◦ better data on rates of improvement and a better

understanding of their drivers

Technologies must have some level of performance and price for specific applications before they begin to diffuse ◦ Technologies that experience faster rates of improvement

are more likely to become economically feasible….

◦ They are also more likely to become economically feasible for increasing number of applications and thus diffuse…

This has implications for R&D policy and solving global problems

Some Technologies Experience More Rapid Rates than do Others

Many technologies experience rapid rates of improvement ◦ And these improvements tell us something about

the future

But there are probably other technologies that are also experiencing rapid rates of improvements ◦ We need more data on these technologies

These slides also help us understand the drivers of the improvements and thus the reasons for them ◦ This can help us identify those technologies with

the potential for rapid improvements

Drivers of Rapid Improvements

Drivers of improvements ◦ 1) creating new materials (and often associated

processes) to better exploit physical phenomena

◦ 2) geometric scaling

◦ Some technologies directly experience improvements while higher-level “systems” indirectly experience them

Rapid improvements are driven by them when ◦ Creating new materials lead to rapid improvements

when new classes of materials are being created

◦ Technologies that benefit from reductions in scale (e.g., integrated circuits) have more rapid rates than those benefitting from increases (e.g., engines)

A summary of these ideas can also be found in



3) Exponential Change: what drives it? what does it tell us about the future? forthcoming 2014


Creating Materials

Leads to orders of magnitude improvements when scientists and engineers create new forms of materials and do this with new processes

Sometimes these improvements involve new classes of materials (See next slide)

Without these new classes, the range of improvements might well be reduced below those achieved and documented earlier

Improvements done mostly in laboratories, not in factories

Technology

Domain

Sub-

Technology

Different Classes of Materials

Energy

Trans-

formation

LEDs Group III-V, IV-IV, and II-VI semiconductors

Organic LEDs Small molecules, polymers, phosphorescent materials

Solar Cells Silicon, Gallium Arsenide, Cadmium Telluride, Cadmium

Indium Gallium Selenide, Dye-Sensitized, Organic

Information

Trans-

formation

Organic

Transistors

Polythiophenes, thiophene oligomers, polymers,

hthalocyanines, heteroacenes, tetrathiafulvalenes, perylene

diimides naphthalene diimides, acenes, C60

Basic

Materials

Superconductors Simple elements (tin and aluminium), metallic alloys,

heavily-doped semiconductors, ceramic compounds

containing planes of copper and oxygen atoms (cuprates),

iron- and organic-based ones

Carbon

Nanotubes

Properties impacted by number of walls, diameter of walls,

axes of walls

Different Classes of Materials were found for Many Technologies

Geometric Scaling

Impacts on some technologies through both reductions and increases in scale

In both cases, large changes in both product and process design were implemented with each increment requiring non-trivial redesigns

Reductions in scale provide a mechanism for rapid rates of improvements in ICs, magnetic storage, MEMS, and DNA sequencing equipment ◦ involved better processes with completely new forms of

equipment and materials

◦ new equipment usually developed and implemented in labs

◦ Led to rapid improvements in many higher-level “systems”

Reductions in Scale

Lead to particularly rapid rates of improvement ◦ Most technologies become cheaper as they are made smaller

◦ But performance only rises for a few technologies

Performance rises for ICs, magnetic storage, MEMS, and DNA sequencing equipment as feature sizes are reduced

Finding these types of technologies is a major challenge

One technology that benefits from both reductions in scale and in creating new materials is nanotechnology ◦ Benefiting from nanotechnology is mostly about creating

materials that benefit from single nanometer feature sizes

◦ Such materials include carbon nanotubes, graphene, nano-particles, nanofibers and many others that can be made at single or nearly single-atom thicknesses

Implications for R&D Policy

One goal of R&D policy should be to fund

those technologies with

◦ rapid rates of improvement or

◦ with potential for rapid rates of improvement

◦ since these technologies will have larger impact

on world than will other technologies

These slides help us understand drivers of improvements and thus reasons for them ◦ This can help us identify those technologies with the potential for rapid improvements

Implications for Solving Global Problems

Rapidly improving technologies represent a kind of “tool chest” ◦ that can be used to solve global problems

It’s not just current performance and cost of them that provide us with useful tools ◦ their rapid rates of improvement mean that better

tools continue to emerge

Let’s think about how these better tools can help solve global problems ◦ For example, many of these technologies will have

bigger impact on solving “energy” problems than will the predominant view (batteries or wind turbines)

Appendix

Thank You

Technologies with Rapid Rates of Improvement: Which technologies and why? What does this tell us about the future

Business

exploit physical

stanford university

solve global

solving global

areal recording

california

smaller feature

experiencing