Tambini ebu

Damian TambiniLondon School of Economics Department of Media and Communications LSE Media Policy Projecthttp://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mediapolicyproject/

Introduction to Project• Mapping Digital Media: Open Society Foundations 2010-2013• Three year study of digital media transitions in 50 countries

(beyond EBU area).• Country case studies (rather than comparisons or

transnational research) can shed light on trends, best practice, some comparative claims

• But relying on country data limits comparability• Covering a range of issues related to ‘digital media and the

open society’ • A ‘policy engaged’ study for policy advocates and NGOs.• Some preliminary thoughts on “state administered and Public

Service” broadcasters. (published later this year).

Overview of this talk• Some long term hypotheses on PSM funding and governance

during the digital transition

• Comments on the hypotheses in the light of:

1: EBU data presented today 2: some of our project findings

• Some comments on Radio in the light of TV experiences

Long Term Hypotheses on PSM

• Commercialization/ Dumbing down/ dilution of remit in

context of increased competition. Leads to problems of justification of remit/funding and state aid and eventual collapse of PSB.

• Inevitable decline of audience for PSB genres/ channels? End of Hammocking (Tambini 2004).

• End of control of market entry and value of ‘spectrum for service’ undermines advertising value (Collins, Ofcom 2004) .

Hypotheses…

• Digitization will lead to successful renewal from PSB to PSM/ public service ‘Communications’ Tambini, Iosephides (2010, 2012), Renegotiation of Remit, (Jakubowicz 2010), new PSB role in social media and community / UGC spaces

• PSM is the more viable model given volatility and weakness of advertising model (since 2008).

• Transformation into a more personalised service such as channels for Niche ‘tribes’, and personalised consumer driven experience. (Thompson 1999). End of PSB as ‘nation builder’?

Hypotheses on ‘PSB’ independence…

• Where “PSBs” are captured by the ruling party, digitization can lead to opportunities of independence or pressures for independence as audiences migrate to more independent new entrants

• Where PSBs are independent, digitization leads to threats to independence due to politicisation of discussions of remit and funding and new services review decisions, as well as ‘switchover champion’ role for PSB.

EBU data:

• Slight rebalancing from advertising to licence fee: confirms vulnerability of spectrum awards as granting of indirect subsidy for PSM

• Increased volatility of PSB funding due to cyclical crisis and structural shift in funding basis.

Balancing of public vs private in the European Mixed Broadcasting ecology: short term health of public funding and licence fee models, but longer term weakness?.

Implications• Reliance on license fee, taxation and new funding sources: Is

this problematic for PSM independence?• Renegotiation of funding due to digital transition: is this in

itself a threat to PSM independence?• Longer term weakness of PSM in relation to wider media

ecology may lead to weakness of PSM in competitive markets for content and talent.

• … importance of understanding balance of public and private

Germany. Evolution of the public/private ratio of funding, 2005-2010

Private, 75%

Public, 25%

2005

Private, 75%

Public, 25%

2010

Georgia. Evolution of the public/private ratio of funding, 2005-2010

Private, 85%

Public, 15%

2005

Private, 68%

Public, 32%

2010

Italy. Evolution of the public/private ratio of funding, 2005-2010

Private, 86%

Public, 14%

2005

Private, 89%

Public, 11%

2010

Japan. Evolution of the public/private ratio of funding, 2005-2010

Private, 81%

Public, 19%

2005

Private, 81%

Public, 19%

2010

Turkey. Evolution of the public/private ratio of funding, 2005-2009

Private, 94%

Public, 6%

2005

Private, 93%

Public, 7%

2008

PSM and the digital transition• Predicted audience losses for PSB TV continue: this seems to be

unavoidable and relatively uniform, but these are not precipitous, and are somewhat curtailed by the launch of new channels (many of which have lower PSB obligations) and much less pronounced in radio (thus far, notwithstanding plans for radio switchover).

• Most PSBs seem to have had a slight increase in funding between 2005 and 2010.

• Public value framework. Several of the correspondents expressed concern that Public Value Tests may undermine the PSM in the long term (E.g. Sweden). Concern about effectiveness (Germany), objectivity, and cost of implementation (UK).

From the case studies: Some funding models• Direct state funding (Hungary: after licence fee abolished in

2002).• Political groups/ foreign donors (e.g. Lebanon)• Other donations (US, Moldova, .. )• Crowd funding (Netherlands, US.. )• Ecommerce converged models (Nigeria)• PPPs (Nigeria, South Africa). • New taxes (e.g the ‘sin tax’ on tobacco and alcohol, Thailland:

Ceiling of 2BN THB/ annum) • Direct taxation funding (Netherlands)

• Also: at what point is it relevant to value all ‘regulatory assets’? (including spectrum, EPG, …).

PSM and Digital Switchover

• PSM taking a leading role and receiving funding to do so (leading to threat to independence? –e.g. Serbia)

• Direct results of loss of audience due to switchover is almost universal and seems independent of other factors such as quality and independence. (conflict of interest?)

• PSM gaining new niche channels on DTTV with lower PSB obligations in most (Sweden, UK, Germany) but not all (Albania, Serbia..) cases. (Tribes vs nation-building role).

• Complex implications for advertising vs other licence fee revenues. Privatization? (Serbia).

Preliminary Conclusions?• Where PSBs are not impartial, digitization and choice is likely

to lead to increased pressure on the PSB to become more impartial. (For example in Albania, Italy, Romania, Malaysia, Georgia, Kenya, Serbia and to a certain extent Japan, broadcasters attempting to present themselves as independent PSBs, and state broadcasters to a lesser or greater extent transitioning to PSB, face stronger pressures to become more impartial in a more competitive environment).

• In Thailand, Germany, the UK, and Canada for example, where the perception of PSB independence and impartiality is greater, there is less pressure for change. However PSBs may be vulnerable to political pressure because of funding discussions, especially if they do not have ‘patrons’ in power.

Implications for Radio• Learn from the TV experience

• Digital Switchover of Radio: biggest challenge for PSB radio in terms of audience

• A particular challenge for hybrid funding models (with advertising)?

• Look carefully at PSB role in managing the transition and at potential for loss of independence

Conclusions

• We can discount the extreme hypotheses (inevitable marketization or inevitable evolution to PSM).

• There is no roadmap for the digital transition, but some useful tactics and potential traps. All the hypotheses had something in them, but it is too soon to conclude and .. We need more research.