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Synthesis report 3 provinces

Jan 27, 2015

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anh-viet

 

  • 1. 2 MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT VIET NAM INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY, HYDROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY REPORT SUPPORT TO IMPROVE CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN PROVINCES 2013

2. 2 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................3 2 SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES .......................................................................................3 2.1 DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS.......3 2.1.1 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh .......................................................4 2.1.1.1 Observed climate changes in Binh Dinh in recent decades.................4 2.1.1.2 Climate change scenario for Bnh nh...............................................6 2.1.2 Climate change scenario for Bnh Thun.......................................................7 2.1.2.1 Observed climate changes in Binh Thuan in recent decades...............7 2.1.2.2 Climate change scenario for Bnh Thun ............................................9 2.1.3 Climate change scenario for Cn Th..........................................................11 2.1.3.1 Observed climate changes in Can Tho in recent decades..................11 2.1.3.2 Climate change scenario for Cn Th ...............................................13 2.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS OF THE PROVINCE .................15 2.2.1 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change in Binh Dinh ..............15 2.2.2 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change on Binh Thuan province........................................................................................................19 2.2.3 Assessment of the impact of climate change and sea level rise on socio-economic development plan in Can Tho............................................24 2.3 IDENTIFICATION OF ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR THE PROVINCES ............27 2.3.1 The adaptation measures to Binh Dinh........................................................28 2.3.2 The adaptation measures for Binh Thuan ....................................................30 2.3.3 The adaptation measures to Can Tho...........................................................32 2.4 CASE STUDY IN THE DISTRICT ........................................................................34 2.4.1 Ty Sn district [6] ......................................................................................35 2.4.2 Ph Qu Island district [3]...........................................................................36 3 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................37 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................40 3. 3 1 INTRODUCTION The project " Strengthening National Capacities to respond to Climate Change in Viet Nam, reducing vulnerability and controlling GHG emissions " sponsored by UNDP for Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment is assigned to coordinate with line ministries, sectors and localities to implement the project. The project aims to strengthen the institutional capacity and policies on climate change, to support the implementation of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTPRCC) from central to local levels. Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho are the three provinces / cities supported by the project with activities to strengthen capacity to respond to climate change, including research on the assessment of climate change impacts over various time frames, including extreme events for each area. The project developed high resolution climate change scenarios for the three provinces of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho, assessments of climate change impacts, identification and selection of adaptation measures, and developed an Action Plan to respond to climate change. Numerous consulting activities for economic sectors within socio-economic development processes and areas susceptible to climate change have been implemented to propose measures for adaptation to climate change in Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho City, Tay Son district (Binh Dinh) and Phu Quy island (Binh Thuan). Detailed climate change scenarios for local areas have been developed; the pressures and challenges caused by climate change at local level have been analyzed to propose adaptation measures such as water resource management in Binh Thuan, groundwater management in Phu Quy island, urban planning adjustment for An Binh Ward, Ninh Kieu District, Can Tho City etc. The results from the consultations will provide important information to help scientists better understand local issues, advantages and challenges in implementing climate change adaptation activities. Capturing information and lessons learned from research are essential to support local activities. Parallel to the research and consultation, the project has implemented various training courses and seminars to raise awareness, research skills for provincial staff. This report outlines the major results of the projects activities in the three provinces. 2 SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES 2.1 Development of climate change and sea level rise scenarios Climate change scenarios are an important part of climate change study. Climate change scenarios are the basis for assessing climate change impacts on natural systems and socio-economic development processes, to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. Climate change scenarios are regarded as reliable and simple tools to project future climate, based on a set of climatic processes, and to understand the consequences caused by human-induced climate change; they are usually used as inputs for impact assessment models1. Vietnam has developed many climate change scenarios, which consequently have been applied in studies and implementations of activities to respond to climate change. Climate change scenarios for Vietnam were first developed in 1994 in a research in the 1 IPCC (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press 4. 4 Asia - Vietnam component by the Asian Development Bank. In 2003, the first Vietnam National Communication to the UNFCCC2 updated and announced the development of climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam. The report "Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam" is the most comprehensive script based on scientific research and practices which can be applied to the implementation of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. The report has been mandated to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to develop, update and announce scenarios in 2009 and 20123. Two versions have been completed with support from UNDP, and in cooperation with the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office, CLIMSystem of New Zealand and a number of other organizations. Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho are the three provinces supported by the project to develop climate change adaptation activities, including development of climate change scenarios as a priority. Within the project framework, the project has supported and provided line departments in the provinces of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho with the development of detailed "climate change scenarios" for each province to provide the scientific basis for assessing impacts and vulnerability caused by climate change at provincial level. 2.1.1 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh 2.1.1.1 Observed climate changes in Binh Dinh in recent decades a) Temperature According to data analysis, in Binh Dinh, temperature changes, both absolute values and anomaly reached the highest increase in winter while the increase is lower in summer; which makes the overall change during the whole year not significant. In the 2 Viet Nam National Initial communication to UNFCCC, 2003 3 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam, 2009 and 2012 5. 5 past 50 years, the average temperature in January increased about 0.8oC, in July approximately 0,65oC and annual average increase 0.7oC. In Binh Dinh, both highest maximum temperature and lowest minimum temperature increased in the past 50 years. Similarly, the number of hot days (>35oC) also increased. The number of days with highest maximum temperature (Tx) more than 35oC in the decade of 1978 to 1987 was 45.9 days; this increased to 61.4 days in the next decade and 53.4 days in the decade of 1998-2007. Figure 1. The trend of annual mean temperature anomaly observed in Quy Nhon station b) Precipitation In Binh Dinh, in the last 50 years, dry season rainfall increased about 6.7% / decade; the rainy season precipitation tends to increase with about 5.6% / decade while the overall annual rainfall increased by 5.8% / decade. The increase of rainfall appeared to be fairly stable. The number of days with heavy rainfall increased in recent decades, but not much. The number of days with rainfall above 50mm during the decade of 1978 to 1987 was 9.1 days; it slightly increased in the decades of 1988 to 1997 and 1998-2007 with an average of 11 days. The highest and the 5-day rainfall showed no significant change. Figure 2. Number of days with rainfall more than 50mm c) Sea level rise Trung bnh 9,1 (1978 1987) Trung bnh 11,0 (1998 2007) Trung bnh 9,3 (1988 1997) 6. 6 From the results of data analysis at Quy Nhon station, sea level in Binh Dinh province tends to increase at a rate of 2.5 mm / year over the past decade; this is slower than the average sea level rise across coastal Vietnam [22]. d) Tropical cyclones and low pressure From 1961 to 2007, there were a total of 38 tropical cyclones affecting Binh Dinh provinces, including 13 tropical depression and 25 tropical cyclones. On average, each decade has about 8 tropical cyclone strikes affecting Binh Dinh. The most serious year experience