Sustainable Energy for the Built Environment in the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy University of Bath, February 2010 Matthew Leach [email protected].

Sustainable Energyfor the Built Environment

in the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy

University of Bath, February 2010

Matthew Leach

[email protected]

www.surrey.ac.uk/ces

Centre for Environmental StrategyDirector: Professor Matthew Leach

[email protected]

www.surrey.ac.uk/ces

Long term strategy of CES

• “Take a multi-disciplinary approach to the analysis of sustainable systems, integrating strong, engineering-based approaches with insights from the social sciences to develop action-oriented, policy-relevant responses to long-term environmental and social issues”

• Run a suite of three MScs (Env Strategy, Corporate Env Management, Sustainable Dev.), full time & part time modular programme

• Long standing and newly enlarged Industrial Doctoral Centre (EngD): in ‘Sustainability for Engineering and Energy Systems’

Areas of ResearchApproaches/themes:-• sustainable systems: tools for analysis

– eg LCA, carbon footprinting, agent-based models, multi-criteria methods

• social research on sustainability– values, attitudes, behaviours. Linked to departments of Psychology, Sociology, Economics

• policy/governance and corporate strategy for sustainability

– risk, roles of innovation, CSR, communication, regulation

Applied (largely) to:-1. systems analysis for lower carbon processes & products2. low carbon energy systems3. water resources and policy4. lifestyles and environment (nb ESRC RESOLVE consortium)

Outline of presentation

• Low carbon challenge for the UK (& Internationally)• Built Environment – in low carbon context• Recent scenario analyses• Lifestyles and behaviours (briefly)• Hence research needs…

Source: CCC(2008) First report

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan

• UK introduced world’s first legally binding carbon targets

These carbon ‘budgets’ set the pathway for the LCTP

• Early action needed, hence series of budgets to 2022

by when -34% below 1990

In line with -80% for 2050• Emissions fallen 1%/year since

1990

need to fall 1.4%/year to 2020

• Action needed in all sectors

power and heavy industry see largest reductions (but just scenarios…)

Challenge for the built environmentSource: adapted from Michael Kelly presentation to IfS Feb 2009

Almost 90% of existing buildings will still be here in 2050…

Built environment: problem solved?Source: Tadj Oreszczyn

Inter-relationships between factors influencing energy use in residential buildings (source: Summerfield (2008) ‘Energy usage and occupant behaviour: understanding socio-technical interactions’. Cited by T.Oreszczyn

The challenges of implementation and uncertainty in outcome

Plus, influence of policy

Smart metering: fostering a link between consumers and system/market/technologies

Source: Landis & Gyr

Low Carbon Scenario analyses since 2000

• Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution• Energy Review• Energy White papers• UK Energy Research Centre ‘Energy 2050’• Ofgem ‘LENS’• Committee on Climate Change First Report• Low Carbon Transition Plan modelling for DECC and

DEFRA• ….

Common feature is the use of MARKAL as a modelling tool, or similar techno-economic optimisation framework

Gas

Coal

Losses

Homes

Transport

Industry

Business

Heat (all sectors)

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

UK’s CO2 emissions for 80% emissions reduction: one CCC scenario (Source: CCC (2008) First report)

Gas

Coal

Losses

Homes

Transport

Industry

Business

Heat (all sectors)

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

BiomassBiofuels

Challenges for a ‘highly-electric’ future:(focus on the built environment)

2050: Types of energy in use; electrification

The changing electricity system (View from EDF Energy’s Cathy McClay)

Source: Gearóid Lane, Centrica

Source: Gearóid Lane, Centrica

Source: David Elliott, Open University

Mayor of London: the revised “London Plan”- London as a ‘Low Carbon Capital’

• Energy and carbon reduction strategies seek to reduce the capital’s emissions by 60 per cent by 2025.

• Target to supply a quarter of London’s energy from decentralised sources by the same year.

“The Mayor will expect all major developments to demonstrate

that the proposed heating and cooling systems have been

selected in accordance with the following order of preference: • connection to existing CCHP/CHP distribution networks;• site-wide CCHP/CHP powered by renewable energy;• gas-fired CCHP/CHP or hydrogen fuel cells, both

accompanied by renewables;• communal heating & cooling by renewable energy;• gas fired communal heating and cooling.”

Added: Large scale natural gas fired CHP with Carbon Capture and Storage and heat networks, plus some small CHP using biomass

Gas

Coal

Losses

Homes

Transport

Industry

Business

Heat (all sectors)

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

BiomassBiofuels

CHP

Benefits of an efficient, diverse scenario

• The highly-electric future is low carbon but not high efficiency, and narrow range of options

• Higher efficiency and greater diversity is possible– CHP with CCS and district heating appears feasible– Our scenario: primary energy demand down 5%; waste heat down

30%; approx 12GW coal eliminated– Reduced peak electricity load– Reduction in effects of intermittency through heat storage and

system diversity– Reduced end-user disruption associated with heat pump installation

• But, challenges of installing heat networks, and acceptability of ‘piped heat’??

LINKING LIFESTYLES, SOCIETAL VALUESAND ENVIRONMENT

A ‘research group’ funded at Surrey

contact details: Gemma CookAdministrative [email protected]

www.surrey.ac.uk/resolve

Eg Lifestyle Scenarios

Proof that the world is getting warmer……..or more fashion conscious?

• explore emerging trends in direct and indirect energy consumption, as well as in energy-related lifestyles, attitudes and behaviours;

• ‘longitudinal’ empirical case studies in lifestyle change: monitoring energy/carbon, psychological and social variables over a 4-year period;

• evaluate and test a range of ‘sustainable lifestyle scenarios’;

Inter-relationships between factors influencing energy use in residential buildings (source: Summerfield (2008) ‘Energy usage and occupant behaviour: understanding socio-technical interactions’. Cited by T.Oreszczyn

The challenges of implementation and uncertainty in outcome

Occupant Behaviour

Integrated perspectives: technologies have to follow a long, expensive and risky chain of innovation to get

from idea to market

Diffusion

Government

Market, People

Business and finance community

Investments

Market accumulation

Commercial-isation

Demon-stration

Applied R&D

Basic R&D

Product/ Technology Push

Market and demand Pull

Source: Foxon (2003) adapted by M. Grubb

Policy Interventions

Research

Much attention in past 5 years to these…eg low carbon scenarios

Clear recognition that current arrangements cannot deliver on long term investments or short term security…policy and research focus

(My text box additions to EDF’s triangle)

A low carbon future: key findings• A low carbon & sustainable energy future is technologically and

economically possible – many different routes or options

– Important to dig below the high level ‘optimisation’ in system-level scenarios: operational impacts? Difficulties in implementation? Diversity may have benefits

• Big changes in technologies, institutions & our lifestyles likely…

– Sensible to pursue: Incremental and transforming technologies, plus attention to consumers/citizens, their attitudes and behaviours

• For built environment:

– How to integrate demand and supply sides? Eg opportunity through smart meters for load reduction as wind drops…

– How to stimulate the building sector and individuals to make more sustainable choices, amidst great complexity and uncertainty? Eg role for an ‘energy services’ market to be developed?

Thank You!

Matthew [email protected]

www.surrey.ac.uk/ces