Suppose market based instruments dont work? David Fisk BP/RAEng Prof Engineering for Sustainable Development.

Suppose market based instruments don’t work?

David FiskBP/RAEng Prof Engineering for Sustainable Development

Suppose DTQ’s Don’t Work?

Got no permits am I F**g bowered?

Argument

• Using an out of date model for demand

• Not preparing for the market collapse

• If you could do DTQ’s you won’t need them

Economic Efficiency is for the birds…

But it really was But it really was more economically more economically efficient for you to efficient for you to

eat cake!!eat cake!!

‘Correct Prices’ Give Piafian Policies

Je ne regret rien!Je ne regret rien!

Walmart Paradox105 goods

~1020 ways of filling for $50

How does How does anyone get as anyone get as

far as the far as the checkout?checkout?

Consider ……..

But The Great MCA is actually

in Act III

So how did he get that far into the play without

making choices?

He makes decisions

according a narrative

To be or To be or not to benot to be

narrative

• Idea of narrative not new (‘retroclassical’)

• How everyone else describes behaviour!

• Not used in General Equilibrium Theory for algebraic not empirical reasons

What’s that architect doing in the bushes

mummie?

Stop staring Daren - he’s

just maximising his utility function

Developing the Theory

Energy market

poor

rich

Mixed Low incomeInherited housesAluminium indust.etc

Fuel poverty defined as >10% if heated to

21C ~1.7 M

Consequence of other purchasing decisions

Neoclassical regime

Retroclassical regime

Neoclassical advertisement

Mass: 50 gmsMean Burning time: 8.561 mins

Time to ignition: 0.3 secTension reduction index: +05

Carcinogenic uptake: 0.07 gmsNo to kill a rabbit: 1046

Cost: 21.045p

Retro-classical advertisement

Neoclassical Neoclassical InformationInformation

RetroclassicaRetroclassical Informationl Information

Central heating

1970197030%30%

1956 Majority didn’t even want

it!

District heating

I’ve got district I’ve got district heatingheating

I’ve got central I’ve got central heatingheating

Game, Set, match

Energy labelling

• Why it works for ‘fridges

CrapCrap

BoschBosch

•Why it doesn’t work for cleaners

Top End Regulation?

3- Way Catalyst3- Way Catalyst

Regulatory successRegulatory success

Narrative and the innovation trajectory

100%100%

AA

DD

Incr

easi

ng s

cale

Incr

easi

ng s

cale

Product innovationProduct innovation

Production innovationProduction innovation

Narrative and the innovation trajectory

100%100%

AA

DD

Incr

easi

ng s

cale

Incr

easi

ng s

cale

ABS Brake BM7ABS Brake BM7

ABS Brake AstraABS Brake Astra

ABS Brake AviationABS Brake Aviation

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 5 10 15

Industry

Space

program

Space

program

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 5 10 15

AAAAB1B1B1B1

B2B2B2B2CCCC

Retroclassics

Santa

Barbara

Beach House

Photo voltaics

Vehicle

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 5 10 15

Industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 5 10 15

AAAAB1B1B1B1

B2B2B2B2CCCC

Retroclassics

Incr

easi

ngly

In

crea

sing

ly

elec

tric

elec

tric

11. Very occasionally the exceptional quality and innovative nature of the design of a proposed, isolated new house may provide this special justification for granting planning permission. Such a design should be truly outstanding and ground-breaking, for example, in its use of materials, methods of construction or its contribution to protecting and enhancing the environment, so helping to raise standards of design more generally in rural areas. The value of such a building will be found in its reflection of the highest standards in contemporary architecture, the significant enhancement of its immediate setting and its sensitivity to the defining characteristics of the local area.

11. Very occasionally the exceptional quality and innovative nature of the design of a proposed, isolated new house may provide this special justification for granting planning permission. Such a design should be truly outstanding and ground-breaking, for example, in its use of materials, methods of construction or its contribution to protecting and enhancing the environment, so helping to raise standards of design more generally in rural areas. The value of such a building will be found in its reflection of the highest standards in contemporary architecture, the significant enhancement of its immediate setting and its sensitivity to the defining characteristics of the local area.

Construction Industry Missed Chances: No 189

Energy as a ‘positional’ good

1930’s America

•1930’s energy becomes positional good

•the more you flaunt it the better you feel

Cultures are ephemeral - people are constants

The greenhouse as paradox

‘‘Greenpeace scenarioGreenpeace scenario

But if politically feasible…But if politically feasible…But if politically feasible…But if politically feasible… ……why have these the same elasticity?why have these the same elasticity?

ConspicuousConspicuousconsumptionconsumption

ConspicuousConspicuousconsumptionconsumption

InconspicuousInconspicuousconsumptionconsumption

InconspicuousInconspicuousconsumptionconsumption

2030:

• Climate models used in every day business

• Global temperatures well above history

• Climate change seen by the naked eye

• At least one big oil and gas supply crisis

2030:Think Carbon Emissions Think Fur Coats

-60% a threat but not to the planet

But to You?