Statistical Approach

Statistical Approach

• try to understand the R simulation needed

• what kind of distribution will I ask R to use?

• Where will I get a reasonable starting point for the magnitude of that variability.

• Where will I get guesses for realistic variability so I’m not fixing the game.

BU

TD

B

DG

CS

A

CO

C

CB

E

F

CP

BVDC

WL

P

Well

Native PastureDrylandPasture w/ fence

PlannedFence-line

HayedAnually

Fileds

Spring

MUWT

O

H

I1

I2

Rented

DAM

Tree Rows

SS2

S1

Attributes:

Physical Features

Ownership

Contracts

Quantifiers/Scores

Uses:GrazeCattle ShareHayHay ShareFarmLease to FarmerShare CropLease to USDA • CSP• CRP

Interventions:

Drill Well

Perimenter Fence

Cross Fence

Renovate

Change Stock Rate

Uncertainty:

RainfallMarket Price

YieldHail

Fuel Prices

Disaster

Anticipating the End:

For Each Parcel:

Old AttributesPossible

InterventionsUseYield – CostDecision

Yield

Attributes:

Parcel Name AntelopeParcel Ref ABiodiversityType FarmSize 125.7Creek NSpring NSpring Tub NWell NPossible Water YPerimeter Fence YFenced for 60 Days YCRP Contract YCRP ScoreNeed To Rest YDistance from HQEconomic CostEconomic WorthBordering Parcels CORoad System NCorral Access NWinter Feeding Accss NWetland YSeasonal Use SP,S,FSoil TypeMean Spring Wheat YieldMean Winter Wheat Yield Mean Year Lentil YieldWet Year AUMMean Year AUMDry Year AUMHay Yields

Owned by Ridenour Ranch NOwned by Bill Lord YRented N

Land Unit Map Unit Symbol Acres Percent

A ZaE 1 1%A BcD 2.3 2%A WmB 19.6 16%A WzB 22.8 18%A WzC 80 64%

Total: 125.7 100%

B LcF 0.1 0%B LbF 0.3 0%B ZaE 0.5 0%B WzC 48.4 37%B WmB 80.3 62%

Total: 129.6 100%

BU WzB 0.1 0%BU WzC 13.2 39%BU ZaE 20.8 61%

Total: 34.1 100%

BU-CRP ZaE 1.2 3%BU-CRP WzC 43.9 97%

Total: 45.1 100%

BV ZaE 2.8 3%BV Tr 4.1 5%BV ZwE 9.3 12%BV WzC 12.4 15%BV TuB 20.6 25%BV LbF 31.6 39%

Total: 80.8 100%

NRCSARC-GISSoil

MT091-Sheridan Countymukey Range_AUM348835 BcD 0.33348836 BdC 0.33348837 BoA 0.52

Soil Values for Forage Production

Table C1. - Rangeland Productivity Sheridan County, Montana

Only the soils that support rangeland vegetation suitable for grazing are rated.

Map Symbol Total Dry-Weight Production and Soil Name

Favorable Normal Unfavorable

Year Year Year

Ecological Site Lb/Acre Lb/Acre Lb/Acre

BcD:

Blanchard Sands, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated 2,200 1,800 1,200 0.601092896 0.491803279 0.327868852

Plains, East

ChB:

Cherry Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 1,700 1,500 1,300 0.464480874 0.409836066 0.355191257

East 0 0 0 FaB: 0 0 0

Farnuf Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 1,800 1,500 1,000 0.491803279 0.409836066 0.273224044

East 0 0 0 FtB: 0 0 0

Farnuf Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 3,800 2,900 2,000 1.038251366 0.792349727 0.546448087

East 0 0 0 Turner Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 3,800 2,900 2,000

1.038251366 0.792349727 0.546448087 East 0 0 0

USDA

One AUM = 915 pounds.

Given: Annual forage production = 900 pounds per acre.

AUM per acre = (900 pounds per acre) x (25 percent grazing efficiency) = (225 pounds available forage per acre) / (915

pounds per AUM) = 0.25 AUM per acre.

Range Science:1000 lb. Cow with calf consumes

- 26 lbs of dry forage per day-760 lbs of dry forage per month

1 Animal Unit Month (AUM) = 760 lbs. of dry forage

Calculating Rangeland Production

1.

2.

Soil Values for Spring and Winter WheatMean Year Only

Modeled Spring and Winter Wheat Yields Sheridan County,

Montana

Spring Wheat Winter Wheat

Map Symbol Soil Name Bushels/Acre Bushels/Acre

BcD Blanchard 18 21

ChB Cherry 46 52

FaB Farnuf 43 48

Yields

Multiply by 915 Multiply by 780Hay Yield:

Expenses:Property TaxesFuelMaterialsWages

R

Vector of soil types for each parcel

Forage Yield Equation Wheat Yield Equation

Hay Equation AUM EquationIncome- cost Equation

Stocking Rate

Income- cost EquationCompare to Current Use

Make Decision

Cumulative Parcel Data

Yield

Range Simulation:

Mean Year

Stocking Rate Decision

Cumulative Parcel Data