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Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disasters 19-21 October 2005, Bangkok. Sri Lanka. D.M.Rupasinghe Senior Economist Central Bank of Sri Lanka.
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Sri Lanka. D.M.Rupasinghe Senior Economist Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

Jan 14, 2016

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Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disasters 19-21 October 2005, Bangkok. Sri Lanka. D.M.Rupasinghe Senior Economist Central Bank of Sri Lanka. 1. The country and the economy. Land area of 65,610 sq. km. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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  • Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disasters 19-21 October 2005, Bangkok.Sri Lanka. D.M.RupasingheSenior EconomistCentral Bank of Sri Lanka.

  • 1. The country and the economy. Land area of 65,610 sq. km. Population of 19.5 million in 2004. The population density is about 310 persons per square kilometer by end of 2004.

  • Key social indicatorsLiteracy rate : 93 per cent Life expectancy: 73 years net primary enrolment :97 per cent Infant mortality: 11.2 per 1,000 live births-2003Maternal mortality 0.1 per 1,000 live births

  • HDI ranks 96th place among 177 countriesPer capita income: US dollars 1,031 in 2004. Average economic growth: around 5 per cent since 1977.

  • Economic Growth

    First half of 2005: 5.1 per centExpected growth in 2005: 5.3 per cent. First quarter 2005: 4.4 per centSecond quarter 2005 6 per cent

  • Sheet1

    Table 1

    Hydro-Meteorological Disasters

    (Type of disaster and Occurence )

    Type of DisasterOccurence

    FloodsAnnually

    DroughtsAnnually

    LandslidesCommon with intense rainfall

    Cyclones2003 May causing severe floods

    TsunamisFor the first time in Sri Lanka

    on 26 December 2004

    EarthquakesOnly tremors of very small magnitude

    VolcanoesPrehistoric

    TornadosNever

    Sheet2

    Table 2

    Natural Disasters in Sri Lanka - 1993 to 2004

    YearNo. ofDamagedNo. of AffectedExpendiiture

    DeathsHousesFamiliesfor Disasters

    19933642,468237,73743,726,604

    19941852,927357,33340,156,807

    1995111,70791,92155,288,253

    1996139,343216,208452,002,869

    1997193,608466,153318,089,287

    199857,93738,002106,665,779

    199993,803167,416145,994,839

    20001586,845257,68265,398,998

    2001611,445458,008506,214,166

    200225,11220,20128,389,474

    200325437,227140,3101,740,153,392

    20043172362,400257,625

    Source: Dept. of Social Services

    Sheet3

    Annex 1

    Table 3

    Investment Needs for the Post-Tsunami Reconstruction Strategy

    Table 1: Gross National Product at Constant (1996) Prices

    Programme/ProjectRequiredValue (Rs. Mn.)Share of GDP (%)

    Investment (US$ mn)2003(a)2004(b)2003(a)2004(b)

    Road Development353Agriculture176,45017518219.017.9

    Rail Transport313Agriculture137,150135,29714.713.8

    Telecommunication18Forestry16,88717,1071.81.7

    Water Supply and Sanitation205Fishing22,41222,7792.42.3

    Electricity115

    Ports22Industry Sector246,417259,25626.526.5

    Education170Minning & Quarrying15,69916,9461.71.7

    Health100Manufacturing151,951159,69616.316.3

    Housing and Urban Development400Construction64,11568,3326.97.0

    Fisheries200Electricity, gas and water14,65114,2821.61.5

    Livelihood and Micro Financing157

    Tourism58Services Sector507,191545,48754.555.7

    Environment30Transport, storage and communication125,538142,67913.514.6

    Culture and Religion13Wholesale and Retail Trade and Hotels and Restaurants206,507218,92422.222.3

    Agriculture10Financial services, Real Estate and Business Services108,578114,71711.711.7

    Total2,164Public Administration, Other Government Services and

    Defence and other Community, Social and

    Personal Services66,56869,1667.27.1

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP)930,057979,925100.0100.0

    Net Factor Income from Abroad-9,468-11,300

    Gross National Product (GNP)920,588968,625

    Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

  • 2. Introduction.

    Sheet1

    Table 2

    Hydro-Meteorological Disasters

    (Type of disaster and Occurence )

    Type of DisasterOccurence

    FloodsAnnually

    DroughtsAnnually

    LandslidesCommon with intense rainfall

    Cyclones2003 May causing severe floods

    TsunamisFor the first time in Sri Lanka

    on 26 December 2004

    EarthquakesOnly tremors of very small magnitude

    VolcanoesPrehistoric

    TornadosNever

    Sheet2

    Table 2

    Natural Disasters in Sri Lanka - 1993 to 2004

    YearNo. ofDamagedNo. of AffectedExpendiiture

    DeathsHousesFamiliesfor Disasters

    19933642,468237,73743,726,604

    19941852,927357,33340,156,807

    1995111,70791,92155,288,253

    1996139,343216,208452,002,869

    1997193,608466,153318,089,287

    199857,93738,002106,665,779

    199993,803167,416145,994,839

    20001586,845257,68265,398,998

    2001611,445458,008506,214,166

    200225,11220,20128,389,474

    200325437,227140,3101,740,153,392

    20043172362,400257,625

    Source: Dept. of Social Services

    Sheet3

    Annex 1

    Table 3

    Investment Needs for the Post-Tsunami Reconstruction StrategyGross National Product at Constant (1996) Prices

    Programme/ProjectRequiredValue (Rs. Mn.)Share of GDP (%)

    Investment (US$ mn)2003(a)2004(b)2003(a)2004(b)

    Road Development353Agriculture176,45017518219.017.9

    Rail Transport313Agriculture137,150135,29714.713.8

    Telecommunication18Forestry16,88717,1071.81.7

    Water Supply and Sanitation205Fishing22,41222,7792.42.3

    Electricity115

    Ports22Industry Sector246,417259,25626.526.5

    Education170Minning & Quarrying15,69916,9461.71.7

    Health100Manufacturing151,951159,69616.316.3

    Housing and Urban Development400Construction64,11568,3326.97.0

    Fisheries200Electricity, gas and water14,65114,2821.61.5

    Livelihood and Micro Financing157

    Tourism58Services Sector507,191545,48754.555.7

    Environment30Transport, storage and communication125,538142,67913.514.6

    Culture and Religion13Wholesale and Retail Trade and Hotels and Restaurants206,507218,92422.222.3

    Agriculture10Financil services, Real Estate and Business Services108,578114,71711.711.7

    Total2,164Public Administration, Other Government Services and

    Devence and other Community, Social and

    Personal Services66,56869,1667.27.1

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP)930,057979,925100.0100.0

    Net Factor Income from Abroad-9,468-11,300

    Gross National Product (GNP)920,588968,625

    Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

  • Sheet1

    Table 1

    Hydro-Meteorological Disasters

    (Type of disaster and Occurence )

    Type of DisasterOccurence

    FloodsAnnually

    DroughtsAnnually

    LandslidesCommon with intense rainfall

    Cyclones2003 May causing severe floods

    TsunamisFor the first time in Sri Lanka

    on 26 December 2004

    EarthquakesOnly tremors of very small magnitude

    VolcanoesPrehistoric

    TornadosNever

    Sheet2

    Table 3

    Natural Disasters in Sri Lanka - 1993 to 2004

    YearNo. ofDamagedNo. of AffectedExpendiiture

    DeathsHousesFamiliesfor Disasters

    19933642,468237,73743,726,604

    19941852,927357,33340,156,807

    1995111,70791,92155,288,253

    1996139,343216,208452,002,869

    1997193,608466,153318,089,287

    199857,93738,002106,665,779

    199993,803167,416145,994,839

    20001586,845257,68265,398,998

    2001611,445458,008506,214,166

    200225,11220,20128,389,474

    200325437,227140,3101,740,153,392

    20043172362,400257,625

    Source: Dept. of Social Services

    Sheet3

    Annex 1

    Table 3

    Investment Needs for the Post-Tsunami Reconstruction StrategyGross National Product at Constant (1996) Prices

    Programme/ProjectRequiredValue (Rs. Mn.)Share of GDP (%)

    Investment (US$ mn)2003(a)2004(b)2003(a)2004(b)

    Road Development353Agriculture176,45017518219.017.9

    Rail Transport313Agriculture137,150135,29714.713.8

    Telecommunication18Forestry16,88717,1071.81.7

    Water Supply and Sanitation205Fishing22,41222,7792.42.3

    Electricity115

    Ports22Industry Sector246,417259,25626.526.5

    Education170Minning & Quarrying15,69916,9461.71.7

    Health100Manufacturing151,951159,69616.316.3

    Housing and Urban Development400Construction64,11568,3326.97.0

    Fisheries200Electricity, gas and water14,65114,2821.61.5

    Livelihood and Micro Financing157

    Tourism58Services Sector507,191545,48754.555.7

    Environment30Transport, storage and communication125,538142,67913.514.6

    Culture and Religion13Wholesale and Retail Trade and Hotels and Restaurants206,507218,92422.222.3

    Agriculture10Financil services, Real Estate and Business Services108,578114,71711.711.7

    Total2,164Public Administration, Other Government Services and

    Devence and other Community, Social and

    Personal Services66,56869,1667.27.1

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP)930,057979,925100.0100.0

    Net Factor Income from Abroad-9,468-11,300

    Gross National Product (GNP)920,588968,625

    Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

  • The tsunami on 26 December 2004. The death toll was over 38,000 persons, second highest after Indonesia. 21,441 people injured Over 5000 are reported missing Nearly one million have been displaced.

  • In terms of total value of damage

    The third most affected country (US dollars 1,454 million).

  • In term of GDP

    Second highest damage (7.6 per cent).

  • Required financial assistanceThe total cost of required relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction is estimated to be around US dollars 2 billion for a period of 3-5 years.

  • Sheet1

    Table 1

    Hydro-Meteorological Disasters

    (Type of disaster and Occurence )

    Type of DisasterOccurence

    FloodsAnnually

    DroughtsAnnually

    LandslidesCommon with intense rainfall

    Cyclones2003 May causing severe floods

    TsunamisFor the first time in Sri Lanka

    on 26 December 2004

    EarthquakesOnly tremors of very small magnitude

    VolcanoesPrehistoric

    TornadosNever

    Sheet2

    Table 2

    Natural Disasters in Sri Lanka - 1993 to 2004

    YearNo. ofDamagedNo. of AffectedExpendiiture

    DeathsHousesFamiliesfor Disasters

    19933642,468237,73743,726,604

    19941852,927357,33340,156,807

    1995111,70791,92155,288,253

    1996139,343216,208452,002,869

    1997193,608466,153318,089,287

    199857,93738,002106,665,779

    199993,803167,416145,994,839

    20001586,845257,68265,398,998

    2001611,445458,008506,214,166

    200225,11220,20128,389,474

    200325437,227140,3101,740,153,392

    20043172362,400257,625

    Source: Dept. of Social Services

    Sheet3

    Annex 1

    Table 4

    Investment Needs for the Post-Tsunami Reconstruction StrategyGross National Product at Constant (1996) Prices

    Programme/ProjectRequiredValue (Rs. Mn.)Share of GDP (%)

    Investment (US$ mn)2003(a)2004(b)2003(a)2004(b)

    Road Development353Agriculture176,45017518219.017.9

    Rail Transport313Agriculture137,150135,29714.713.8

    Telecommunication18Forestry16,88717,1071.81.7

    Water Supply and Sanitation205Fishing22,41222,7792.42.3

    Electricity115

    Ports22Industry Sector246,417259,25626.526.5

    Education170Minning & Quarrying15,69916,9461.71.7

    Health100Manufacturing151,951159,69616.316.3

    Housing and Urban Development400Construction64,11568,3326.97.0

    Fisheries200Electricity, gas and water14,65114,2821.61.5

    Livelihood and Micro Financing157

    Tourism58Services Sector507,191545,48754.555.7

    Environment30Transport, storage and communication125,538142,67913.514.6

    Culture and Religion13Wholesale and Retail Trade and Hotels and Restaurants206,507218,92422.222.3

    Agriculture10Financil services, Real Estate and Business Services108,578114,71711.711.7

    Total2,164Public Administration, Other Government Services and

    Devence and other Community, Social and

    Personal Services66,56869,1667.27.1

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP)930,057979,925100.0100.0

    Net Factor Income from Abroad-9,468-11,300

    Gross National Product (GNP)920,588968,625

    Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

  • 3. Developments related to assessment of socio-economic impacts of disaster.

    26 December 2004 tsunami caused widespread concern about

    assessment of damage and loss methodology for assessment

  • Sri Lanka did not process the complete methodology

    Centralised disaster assessment system

  • Different institutions At different level Mainly for relief and rehabilitation purposes carried out the assessment.

  • Central Bank of Sri LankaSocio-economic impacts assessment

  • The Primary Objectives To asses economic impacts To quantify the losses,To quantify the rehabilitation and reconstruction cost, To provides details to donor agencies.

  • Detailed Analyses. Cover four core areas of the economy Real sector, agriculture, industry trade infrastructure,External sector, Fiscal sector Monetary sector.

  • Special Attention Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) Investment, Balance of Payments, Public Finance, Prices Unemployment.

  • Not considered

    Indirect losses impossible to quantify

    Environmental effects, Impacts on women and children, Impacts on well being and quality of life Certain opportunity cost;

  • Indirect losses possible to quantifyHigh operational cost due to destruction of physical infrastructure and inventoriesDiminished production or services due to total or partial paralysis of activitiesAdditional cost on alternative means of production.Cost of budgetary reassignmentIncome reduction due to non-availability of public utilitiesAdditional cost on dealing with the new situationLoss of production due to linkage effects.

  • 4. Policies and Strategies to cope with Disasters

    Institutional set upRules and RegulationsOther Measures.

  • Several committees to draft an Act and a National Plan since 1992. National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) was established in 1996

  • National Disaster Management Bill and National Plan for disaster management prepared by NDMC was passed by the Parliament in March 2005,

  • The Disaster Management Act provides to set up; National Disaster Management Council National Disaster Management Centre Technical Advisory Committees and Preparation of disaster management plans, the declaration of a state of disaster, the award of compensation and for other matters committed to the disaster.

  • National Disaster Management Council (NDMC)The President The Prime Minister The Ministers in charge of Social Welfare, Defence, Finance, Health, Land and Agriculture, Forest and Environment, Housing, Water Resources, Science and Technology, Highways and Fisheries are the other members. Chief Ministers of the Provincial Councils Five members of Parliament appointed by the Speaker in consultation with party leaders.

  • National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) functions Preparation and implementation of national disaster management plan. Monitor the implementation of sub-disaster management plans.Preparation of a national emergency operation plan. Planning and implement preparedness, mitigation, prevention, response and recovery activities on disaster management. Establishment of data bank for accumulation and dissemination of information. Enhancement of international co-operation.

  • Centre for National Operation (CNO) To co-ordinate the rescue and relief operations in a cohesive and an efficient manner. To ensure that relief measures were directed to the affected people by identifying their needs and matching them with the available resources.

  • TAFREN, (Task Force for Rebuilding the Nation) To co-ordinate and assist government agencies and institutions in their efforts to reconstruct and rehabilitate tsunami affected regions. TAFREN will be legally empowered by Parliament Act for a period of 3 to 5 years during which period it focuses on ensuring accelerated economic growth within the affected region through the successful completion of the rebuilding process.

  • Rules100-meter buffer zone rule around the coastal areas. OthersInsurance policies to cover hydro meteorological disasters.

  • 5. Priority Areas of Regional Co-operations in Disaster Risk ManagementEarly warning systemEffective disaster management and control system Priority areas of disaster reductionCapacity improvement in weather forecasting