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© Benjamin Forest 2006 Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University
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Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

Apr 14, 2018

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Page 1: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation:

Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS

Benjamin ForestDartmouth College

&McGill University

Page 2: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Page 3: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Gerrymandering

The manipulation ofelection districts boundariesto “unfairly” reduce orenhance the political power of a ethnic/racial group or political party.

•What is “unfair”?

Page 4: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

“Fair” vs. “Unfair” Redistricting

•Many possible election districts

North Carolina 12th Congressional District, 1992 &1998

Page 5: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting: How?

• Districts are composed of Census tracts and Census blocks

• Census tracts = ~4300 people (National average)

• Census blocks = ~33 people (National average)

Page 6: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting: How?• Redistricting is like a jigsaw puzzle…

16 Census tracts 2 Districts

Page 7: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

…a jigsaw puzzle with many solutions

Page 8: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston:Group exercise

Active learning: Students create districting plans

GIS: ArcMap with Redistricting extension

Data: Census and political data

Spatial thinking:

•The same voting pattern produces different results

•Different political goals require different spatial boundaries

Page 9: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston

Six groups•2 partisan•2 racial/ethnic•1 “anti-factional” (homogeneous)•1 incumbent protection

Create a plan with six new districts

Page 10: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston

Goals:

•Population equality

•Voting Rights Act requirements

•Political objectives

Page 11: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston

InitialDistricts

•3 Republicans•3 Democrats

•2 Anglo-majority•4 open to

interpretation

Page 12: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston

Democratic plan Republican plan

Page 13: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston

Latino plan African American plan

Page 14: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston

“Anti-factional”(Homogeneous) plan

Incumbent protectionplan*

Page 15: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Redistricting Houston

Results:

•Flexibility and limits of gerrymandering

•Spatial relationships among party and ethnicity/race

Page 16: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

New Project:Political Representation and

Sovereignty in Quebec

•Adapt redistricting exercise to Quebec

•CSISS/SPACE InstructionalDevelopment Award

Page 17: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

New Project:Political Representation and

Sovereignty in Quebec

•Linguistic, not racial/ethnic division

•Federalist vs. Sovereigntist

•Five major parties

•Up to 25% population deviation

Page 18: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Representation in QuebecFederal “ridings” (districts)

Quebec

Montreal

Page 19: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Representation in QuebecPart I

Redistrict Montreal

•1/3 Anglophone (English)

•2/3 Francophone (French)

Develop predictive models

Page 20: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Representation in QuebecPart II

Quebec “national”boundaries?

•Separate Federalistfrom Sovereigntist voters

Evaluate different boundaries

Page 21: Spatial Dimensions of Political Representation Dimensions of Political Representation: Understanding Gerrymandering Through GIS Benjamin Forest Dartmouth College & McGill University

© Benjamin Forest 2006

Thank you!