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Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1
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Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Aug 04, 2020

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Page 1: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Social Network Analysis (SNA)Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies

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Page 2: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

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Joe McHale

Ken Novak, Ph.D.

Speakers

Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental Research (IIR)

Retired Chief of Police, Marion, Iowa, Police Department

Retired Major, Kansas City, Missouri, Police Department

Professor, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Criminal Justice and Criminology

Research Partner, Kansas City’s Strategies for Policing Innovation and Crime Gun Intelligence Center

Page 3: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪Analysis of social relationships▪ Beyond individual attributes

▪ Maps relationships between individuals

▪ Information and goods flow between people, so the structure of relations matters

▪Through SNA, we can identify important individuals based on their social position

What Is Social Network Analysis (SNA)?

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Page 4: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪Social network analysis is not social networking

▪It is not Twitter or Facebook

What SNA Is NOT!

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Page 5: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪Crime concentration

▪Overlap between offenders and victims▪ Risk factors

▪ Role of retaliation

▪ Influencers

▪Good starting point for understanding dynamics within deviant social groups

▪Starting point for actionable intelligence

Why SNA?

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Page 6: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪Delinquent peers - one of the strongest predictors of crime (Warr)

▪Violence is concentrated among networks of people (Papachristos)

▪The closer you are socially to violence, the more likely you are to become a victim (Papachristos)

▪Position is important within the network (Morselli, McGloin)

Research on SNA

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Page 7: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

SNA Terminology

TIE

NODE

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Page 8: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

SNA Sociogram

TIE

NODE

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Page 9: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Types of Network Data

DATA MODELING INTELLIGENCE

▪Converting data into intelligence

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Page 10: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Data (Input)

▪Information that connects or informs the relationship between two or more people

▪ “Street intel”

▪ Field interview forms (FIFs)

▪ Arrest reports

▪ Car/traffic stops

▪ Gang intelligence reports

▪ National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN)

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Page 11: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Data - Caution!

▪Intelligence will only be as good as the data used

▪Flawed, incomplete, stale, cursory data yield similar output

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Page 12: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Visualizing a NetworkField Interview

FIF 1100 Andrew200 Ken

Edge

100 200 100 200

Network Representation

FIF 2200 Ken 350 Joe 400 Tiffany

200 350200 400350 400

200

400

350

100

FIF 1 & 2 Combined100 200200 350200 400350 400

200

400

350

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Page 13: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Visualizing a Network

Network of Gang Members and Associates (n=288)

Layout optimization▪ No lines overlap▪ Social distance on the page

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Page 14: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Key Players

Who is the most central in the network?

1. Degree Centrality

2. Betweenness Centrality

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Page 15: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

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Types of CentralityDegree centrality: Person with direct connections

(knows a lot of people)

Person A

Betweenness centrality: Person in the best path

(connects a lot of people)

Person B

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A B

Page 16: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

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Key Players

Degree Centrality

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Betweenness Centrality

Page 17: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

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SNA in Practice

Arrest networks

High betweennesscentrality 3.2xs more likely to be victim of violence

(Fox et al. 2020)

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Betweenness Centrality

Page 18: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

SNA in Practice

▪Identifying gang structures/focused deterrence

▪Hot spot enforcement and engagement

▪ATF/NIBIN utilization

▪Smaller jurisdictions

▪Challenges

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Page 19: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Implementing Focused Deterrence Utilizing SNA

Intelligence ModelsBuild intelligence models and

relationships to direct the finite resources of the police

department to the core group of individuals involved in, or likely

to become involved in, violent crime

Community Relationships

Build relationships in the community to establish a moral

voice that impacts violence

Establish Structure

Establish a structure of outreach to those who want to change and need the help

to make change

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Page 20: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

SNA Case Study in First Application for FD

▪ Dime Block gang network

▪ Developed by UMKC and KCPD Detective

▪ Process took two months

▪ Silos of intelligence

▪ Information technology barriers/crystal reports

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Page 21: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Single Gang Set Sociogram

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Page 22: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

SNA Single Gang Set Breakdown

▪360 members in group

▪202 in largest connected group

▪60 currently were on probation/parole

▪32 pending cases were in Jackson County processes

▪ 126 members had active warrants

▪22 warrants were felony

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Page 23: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Betweenness Centrality (Warrant)

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Page 24: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Betweenness Centrality (Probation & Parole)

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Page 25: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

The Social Structure of Violence in a Major U.S. City

How do you engage this network? Who does it?

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Page 26: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Hot Spot Networks

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Page 27: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Major Urban City Patrol Division

▪ Area of 45.4 square miles▪ Population: 82,585▪ 172 sworn law enforcement officers▪ 44 homicides in 2015▪ 70,000 calls for service▪ Dozens of community groups▪ Melting pot, industry, tourism

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Page 28: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Intelligence-Led SNA Hot Spots

▪Central players (betweenness) ▪ Wanted

▪ Messaging

▪Probation parolees (central players first)▪ Home visits to verify plan

▪ Arrest absconders

▪Community interaction▪ Identify key players to drive preventive conversation

with faith-based and service-oriented groups

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Page 29: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Intelligence-Led SNA Hot Spots

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Page 30: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Impacting Gun Crime Through SNA and NIBIN

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Page 31: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪Agencies can integrate all ballistic matches that link gun crime, connecting the cases, then identify the networks of people involved in those crimes, victims, witnesses, and suspects to overlay that intelligence in the SNA networks

▪This information allows us to place a higher degree of “risk” for violence based on the prior history of individuals

ATF/NIBIN Intelligence

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Page 32: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪ These dots indicate linked gun crimes – yellow dots indicate cases involving homicides

ATF/NIBIN Intelligence

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Page 33: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

ATF/NIBIN Intelligence

Yellow Dot = IndictmentATF

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Page 34: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

ATF/NIBIN Intelligence

Green Dot = Probation/Parole

Probation & Parole

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Page 35: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

ATF/NIBIN Intelligence

Betweenness

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Page 36: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

ATF/NIBIN Intelligence

Sex Pink Dot – FemaleBlue Dot – Male

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Page 37: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Smaller Jurisdiction Model

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Page 38: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪Cluster of three agencies’ data in Eastern Iowa

▪Three jurisdictional data sets: two police departments and one sheriff’s office

▪Population of metropolitan area: about 257,000

▪Very safe: three to five homicides per year

▪Violence very concentrated

Applicability to Smaller Jurisdiction

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Page 39: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪May 1, 2015, through April 30, 2017

▪All incidents and field interviews

▪Two-mode network connecting people through incidents

Network Method

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Page 40: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Extreme Concentration

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Page 41: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Implementation Challenges

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Page 42: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪ Procedures to draw out human intelligence must be in place

▪ Commanders must direct staff to document relationships and share information to produce robust SNA

▪ Patrol elements are one of the absolute best sources of relational data - “the book”

▪ FIFs must be completed

Computers Cannot Replace Intuition

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Page 43: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪ Data not structured correctly for analysis▪ What is an edge list?

▪ Multiple names and monikers for same person ▪ Jonathon, Jon, Johnny, Jay Jay, Skinny Boy . . .

▪ Paper files contain large amounts of relational and node data ▪ Gang files, detective interview reports (DIRs)

▪ Human knowledge of relationships not documented▪ Patrol elements fail to complete FIFs

Barriers to Advancing SNA

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Page 44: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪ Investigative elements unwilling to talk or grant access to files▪ Our case will be compromised (case unsolvable, crime continues)

▪ Physical separation of investigative elements▪ Covert locations tend to be huge silos

▪ No central database for storing group and individual-level intelligence▪ Intel system that no one had access to or training on (big secrets!)

▪ SNA dismissed by “tech-challenged” personnel▪ First SNA models may hit the trash if training not conducted

Barriers to Advancing SNA

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Page 45: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪ SNA has outlined undercover and long-term federal investigations

▪ Units were not adhering to “deconfliction” practices dictated by policy

▪ SNA charts with names need to be kept out of public view and in secure environments

Officer Safety Issues

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Page 46: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪SNA is mistaken for Social Media Analysis

▪ You are doing a great job with that “Facebook stuff”

▪SNA will contain all walks of life, not just criminal elements

▪ “Their data is horrible; they have a security guard mapped out”

▪The “let’s go arrest everyone” mentality

▪ SNA must be a tool to drive smart and impactful crime reduction operations

Command and Line Element Misconceptions

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Page 47: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪ The U.S. Constitution is “still in effect” when using SNA

▪ Being identified in a social structure does not transition to “probable cause or reasonable suspicion”

Probable Cause and Reasonable Suspicion

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Page 48: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

▪ SNA should be considered “raw intelligence”

▪ SNA should never be referred to in investigative or public access documents

▪ The process of preparing networks should always be accomplished with information that we legally have access to in the course of our duties

▪ SNA in the law enforcement realm should never be utilized for personal or political gain

Prosecutors and Discovery

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Page 49: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Questions?

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Page 50: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Contact Us

Joe McHaleSenior Manager

Institute for Intergovernmental Research (IIR)

Phone: (850) 385-0600, ext. 302 Mobile: (850) 404-4101Email: [email protected]

Carolyn BinderSenior Manager

Institute for Intergovernmental Research (IIR)

Phone: (850) 385-0600, ext. 362

Mobile: (850) 210-8033

Email: [email protected]

Strategic Solutions • Focused Action • Reduced Violence

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Page 51: Social Network Analysis (SNA) · Social Network Analysis (SNA) Using SNA to Enhance Policing Strategies 1. 2 Joe McHale Ken Novak, Ph.D. Speakers Senior Manager, Institute for Intergovernmental

Strategic Solutions • Focused Action • Reduced Violence

Thank You!

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