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Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. President: GraphsandLaughs, LLC MMG Expert Advisory Board Member SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!
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SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!

Feb 25, 2016

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Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. President: GraphsandLaughs , LLC MMG Expert Advisory Board Member . SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

President: GraphsandLaughs, LLCMMG Expert Advisory Board Member

SLOW IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS NO IMPROVEMENT!

Page 2: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

In addition to contributing to the Mortgage Market Guide Expert Advisory Board, Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is a nationally acclaimed economist and former Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, DC. He is a national speaker on the economic impact of homebuilding, consequences of government regulation, cost-benefit analysis, strategic business development and other current economic issues.

Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Page 3: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Here’s What We’ll Cover• What do your clients need to know about interest rates - and

how can you get them off the fence and into action?

• Could QE3 spark inflation this year and cause home loan rates to rise?

• How long will the Fed support the mortgage market? • Is the budget deficit really a concern?

• Can the improvement in the U.S. economy continue?

Page 4: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

The Data!

Page 5: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!
Page 6: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Historical Job Growth Month over Month Employment Change

Page 7: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Net New Payroll Jobs Per Month

Page 8: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Total Employment Levels Well Below PeakTotal Non-farm Employment

Page 9: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Real Per Capita Disposable Income is Flat

Page 10: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Annual Y-o-Y Percent Change in GDP

Page 11: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Trucking Tonnage Has Recovered

Page 12: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Container Traffic Has More Than Recovered

Page 13: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

As Have Factory Utilization Rates

Page 14: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

As Have Orders for Capital Goods

Page 15: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

ISM Non-Manufacturing Numbers are Up!

Page 16: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Corporate Profits are Growing Dramatically

Page 17: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

The Stock Market is Doing Very Well

Page 18: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Commercial Real Estate is Recovering

Page 19: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Money is Not Being Lent

Page 20: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Monetary Velocity Drops Like a Rock

Page 21: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Core PCE Price Index: No Inflation Anywhere!!

Page 22: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Thus Low, but Not Lower Interest Rates!

Page 23: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Consumer Confidence While Historically Low, is Up!

Page 24: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Same With Small Business Confidence

Page 25: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

ISM Numbers are Down but Holding!

Page 26: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Trade Deficit is Flattening Out….Maybe Worsening

It may slightly hinder employment growth

Page 27: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Budget Situation Looks Bad but……….

Page 28: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

It is Improving…See!

Page 29: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Budget Situation is Bad but Improving….Really!

Page 30: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Budget Situation is Improving. Really It is!

Page 31: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Best of All, No Recession is in the Cards!

Page 32: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

What About Housing?

Page 33: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!
Page 34: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

House Prices Have Bottomed….Really They Have!!!!Real house prices

Page 35: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Negative Equity is Less and Less of a Problem

Page 36: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Seriously Delinquent Loans Trending Lower

Page 37: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Even in Hard Hit San Bernardino, CA

Page 38: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Foreclosures are Declining as a % of Sales

Page 39: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

REO Inventory is declining too!

Page 40: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Existing Home Inventories Are Falling Fast

Page 41: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications – Ignore Noise!

Investors are keeping them down

Page 42: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Households are Repairing their Balance SheetsMore Income to Spend Elsewhere

Page 43: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

New Home Prices – In Recovery Mode

Page 44: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Single-Family Starts – Beginning a Recovery

Page 45: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Existing Single-Family Home Sales

Page 46: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

U.S. Home Ownership Rate Continues to Fall

Page 47: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Multifamily Housing Starts Stupendous Response from Growth in

Renters!!!!!

Page 48: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Lumber Prices are a Problem!

Page 49: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

What About Things Here?

Page 50: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Things Look Pretty Good

Page 51: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

The Future Looks So Bright, I’ll Need Shades

Page 52: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

But…..Maybe Not due to Sequestration!

Page 53: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

A Large Share of Mortgages Are Underwater% of Total Mortgages

Page 54: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Let’s Do this Without A Lawyer, Thank You!

Page 55: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Center of the Country is Strongest

FL #1NV #2AZ #3GA #4IL #5CA #6

Page 56: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

State Unemployment RateSignificant differences across states

%

Page 57: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

House Price Recovery Rates Vary

Significant differences across cities

Page 58: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

House Price Recovery Rates Vary Significant differences across states

Page 59: SLOW  IMPROVEMENT SURE BEATS  NO  IMPROVEMENT!

Long Road Back to Normal* for Single-Family Housing Starts – Q4 2013

* Normal is the average from Q1 2000 to Q4 2003

* Normal Production is measured as Single-Family housing starts between Q1

2000 and Q4 2003

Single-Family Housing StartsRelative to Normal

Less than 45%

45% to 49%49% to 61%61% to 70%Greater than 70%