TIM STOCK 1 The Structure of Trends Strategic Design & Management Summer 2014
Aug 11, 2014
TIM STOCK 1
The Structure of TrendsStrategic Design & Management Summer 2014
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patterns patterns
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past present future
trends are about movement what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)
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what would she buy?are we seeing the full dynamics shaping her decisions?
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motivetrendstory
what I remember
what I believe will happen
evolution of narrative as sustained shift
the structure is cognitivehow perception and belief manifests as action and sustained behavior
patternspatterns
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codes enable system 1 thinkingsystem 1 vs. system 2
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trends are the output of cognitive systems
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trends flow from this unconscious narrative
BEHAVIORPERCEPTIONwhat people believe
how they act upon that belief
we need to calibrate our sight to read the patterns in the signals
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cognitive indexes to measure trend scenariosfinding the best signals that tells more of the story
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weather indexeswhat weather data impacts what we do and how we plan?
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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the waffle house indexthe index of weather based on what you can still get at the Waffle House
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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the Uggs indexthe perception of how long cold weather will last impacts sales.
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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the flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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the google flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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stock market indexwhat data points offer the greatest yields to plan investment?
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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bad indexes feed market bubblesthe value of markets rests on how we read perceptions of value
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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trends are stories (we must learn to read them)what happens next? what clues are there?
BEHAVIORPERCEPTION
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plot
setting language
perspective conflict
motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamicswhat moves the story forward?
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PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP
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everyday trend narrativesfrom how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight.
plot
setting language
perspective conflict
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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid
rising action
climax
falling action
these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift
exposition denouement
image: @glennharper
patterns
notness
kinship
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past present future
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky
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the physics of trends
THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response
THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave
THE PATHwhere the puck will be
understanding what will drive where things will be
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patterns patterns
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trends
culture / expression / influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES technology + government + social shifts
past present future
how trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
historicalPAST TRENDS
cyclicalMICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS
sustained
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trend forces: economicsthe economy shapes our perception
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middle class65%
upper class2%
lower class27%
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trend forces: economicseconomies with a growing middle class
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trend forces: employmentshifts in access to employment and the type of jobs available
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trend forces: educationhow well are institutions preparing students for changing dynamics
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trend forces: governmentgovernment impacts our sense of security and optimism
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there was a food ban in New York City in 2012trend forces: government
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legalization of marijuana will have broader impact on trends and innovationtrend forces: government
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trend forces: social shiftshow relaxed or restrictive society appears
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trend forces: social shiftsevolving aspirations results in migrations and new behaviors
Monterrey, Mexico
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trend forces: technologyhow we access experiences
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trend forces: technologyhow invention can transform broader behavior
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trend forces: technologyand begin to blur fundamentals of what is real and human
Immersight positional tracking VR
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past present futurepatterns patterns
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
caution
lack of credit
unemployment
shopping the pantry
MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS
new normal
the great recession
exuberance
deregulation
borrowed money
HISTORICAL
increasing value
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2014
the new normal
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where will we live?
what is livable?
past present future
urban renewal + recession + social migration
urban expansion
MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS
suburban renewalurban flight
HISTORICAL
what is livable?
these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system
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where will we live?these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system
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shifts in expectation
demographics economics
where will we work?
past present future
technology
permanent freelance
MICRO TREND
entrepreneurship
MACRO TREND
long term employment
HISTORIAL
shifts in expectation
these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system
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these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative systemhow we will love?
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these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system
Her (2014)
how we will love?
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
2006 2009 2013
recovery
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politics
“stylish”
economic growth
2006
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
“awareness”“stylish”2006 2009
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
“awareness”“stylish”
2006 2009“equipped”
2013
recovery
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brand communication evolveshow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
2014
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belief + currency + influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES economics + materials + technology
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forecasting near term - cyclical consumption what will sell?
MICRO TRENDS
past present future
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cognitive features feed cyclical consumptioncolor is a system 1 tool for the designer
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timing cognitive features with cultural shifts
past present future
Peter Pilotto for Target
MICRO TRENDS
features
HISTORICAL
features
notness sustainability
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the broader meaning of vinyl records
past present future
pushback on new technology
MICRO TRENDS
how might this evolve?
MACRO TRENDS
how do you read this signal? what are the implications?
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the story is bigger than the one signalcultural systems (connotation)
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DIY fashion - reading the dynamics sourcing other trend signals that share similar codes
past present future
creative involvement
MICRO TRENDS
how might this sustain?
MACRO TRENDS
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understanding the cultural dimensions that will impact the brand
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LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
business case: Starbucks
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CODES
SIGNIFIERS
PERSONAL
TRANSPARENT
CRAFT
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
SHARING TABLES GREEN MARKETS
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TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation
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BOULANGERIES GROWLERS
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sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
CODES
SIGNIFIERS
PERSONAL
TRANSPARENT
CRAFT
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
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STARBUCKS RETAIL
STARBUCKS VERISMO
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TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
forecasting how innovation platforms will evolve
CODES
SIGNIFIERS
PERSONAL
TRANSPARENT
CRAFT
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
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exercise: what forces are making the product work today? how does the product need to evolve?
patterns patterns
past present future