0 5/14/2010 A REPORT ON ASSESSMENT AND ANALYTIC FORMULATION TOWARDS PROACTIVE CHURN CONTROL AND OTHER USAGE AND REVENUE ENHANCING ACTIVITIES BY: (VARU NAGPAL) 09BS0002646 RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
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5/14/2010
A REPORT ON
ASSESSMENT AND ANALYTIC FORMULATION TOWARDS
PROACTIVE CHURN CONTROL AND OTHER USAGE AND
REVENUE ENHANCING ACTIVITIES
BY:
(VARU NAGPAL)
09BS0002646
RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
1
A REPORT ON
ASSESSMENT AND ANALYTIC FORMULATION TOWARDS
PROACTIVE CHURN CONTROL AND OTHER USAGE AND
REVENUE ENHANCING ACTIVITIES
BY:
(VARU NAGPAL)
09BS0002646
RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
A report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of MBA
program of IBS Gurgaon.
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AUTHORIZATION
It is to hereby acknowledge that Varu Nagpal, is a bonafide student of IBS-Gurgaon (MBA batch 2009-
2011). She has successfully completed her summer internship program at Reliance communications
limited, Barakhamba road. All the contents in this report are reproduced with prior consent from the
company.
This report is submitted as a partial fulfillment of the requirement of MBA program at IBS- Gurgaon.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Through this report, I take the opportunity to express my sincere gratitude to all those who have helped
me in making my training at Reliance Communications Ltd. (Delhi circle), a success.
First of all I would like to thank the academic fraternity at, IBS Gurgaon, for having such a system in
place, where students are given opportunities to learn about their areas of interest, as part of training
and internship programs.
I would like to thank my faculty guide MS. ANUPAMA RAINA, Faculty Member IBS, Gurgaon, without
whom it would not been possible for me to undergo training at Reliance Communications Ltd. Her
regular guidance and help has given shape to my project and evolved it to its current being. She has
been a source of inspiration and motivated me to perform to the best of my abilities.
I express my deepest sense of gratitude towards MR. VIKAS VIKRAM, my guide and mentor at Reliance
Communications Ltd, for taking time out of his busy schedule and helping me, in every possible way, to
proceed with my work. He has been a constant help throughout the project and an impartial leader. I
would like to thank him for his selfless help and cooperation at every step.
Furthermore I wish to extend a warm gratitude to MS. DEEKSHA JAISWAL, for helping me throughout
the summer internship program and providing me with wonderful insights which helped me in
understanding the business as a whole. She has been extremely warm and kind hearted.
I also wish to thank MS. VIBHA ARORA, faculty member, IBS-G, for valuable inputs and feedback which
helped me benefit a lot from this training program.
At last, I would like to thank all the TEAM MEMBERS of the office, who had contributed in completion of
the project. I acknowledge their efforts in making me understand the various business functions at
Reliance Communications Ltd and their guidance for developing the deliverables to the organization.
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ABSTRACT
N today’s business environment the world is shrinking rapidly. Companies now are not
restricted by boundaries of countries. Technology is the main driving factor behind this
emergence of a closely knit business world. The need for faster communication and
decision making is gaining immense importance. Moreover, easier access to the web has been
very effective for the companies as well as its employees. In this emerging conquest for highly
customized products, there has been a growing demand for efficient tools for processing the
products and its related documents. All functions – such as sales, marketing, manufacturing,
service, and even human resources affect not only the bottom line but also a company’s
financial integrity.
The main aim of this project is to understand the various functions of marketing division in the
day to day business activities in the telecom sector. It also aims to identify the concern areas
after an in-depth analysis of the company’s operations and recommend solutions for the same.
It stresses on analyzing the key aspects of marketing like consumer behavior patterns and
revenue generation. It requires integration of various parameters needed to analyze the
possibilities of market segmentation and also CLV analytics in telecom sector. It mainly focuses
on increasing ARPU and decreasing customer churn. It also takes a step forward by looking into
various strategies adopted by Reliance Communications to remain affordable by the customers
yet generate high revenue.
I
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Authorization…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..(2)
Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………………………………...(3)
Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…(4)
List of figures…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..(7)
List of tables…………………………………………………………………………………………………………...(8)
List of annexure……………………………………………………………………………………………………...(9)
List of abbreviations………………………………………………………………………………………………..(10)
1. Introduction
1.1 Background 11
1.2 Purpose, Scope, and limitations 13
1.3 Review of literature 16
2. Industry
2.1 Introduction 24
2.2 Market structure 27
2.3 competition in the market 29
3. Report Organization
3.1 Introduction 31
3.2 Business mix 35
3.3 Verticals of marketing 36
4. Up selling and increasing pack penetration
4.1 Introduction 38
4.2 Business challenge 39
4.3 Case data 43
4.4 Methodology and Findings 44
4.5 Problem areas and solutions proposed 46
4.6 Observations and results 49
4.7 Way forward 51
5. Customer Churn analysis
5.1 Introduction 52
5.2 CLV analytics 55
5.3 Types of churn 57
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5.4 Case data and case focus 58
5.5 Methodology 59
5.6 Churn trend analysis 60
5.7 Competitive scenario 61
5.8 Primary research 63
5.9 Customer profiling 66
5.10 Data analysis 67
5.11 Results and observations 74
5.12 Retention marketing 75
5.13 Results of Promotional pack 77
5.14 The road ahead 80
6. References 81
7. Annexure 83
8. Remarks 101
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LIST OF FIGURES:
1.1 Eight elements to reduce churn 21
2.1 Top 10 countries by number of subscribers 26
3.1 Market share of all operators in India 29
4.1 Top 10 CDMA operators in the world 33
5.1 Business mix of Reliance ADAG 35
6.1 Verticals of marketing at Reliance 36
8.1 Strategies for promotion 48
10.1 Need for customer churn prediction 54
11.1 CLV conceptual model 55
12.1 Methodology to evaluate churn 59
13.1 Recharge base VS churn percentage 60
14.1 Causes of churn 62
17.1 Customer profile 66
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LIST OF TABLES:
1.1 STV recharge data 42
2.1 Results after promotion of STVs 49
3.1 Incremental revenue statement due to increased recharge percentage 50
3.2 Costs involved in promotion 50
3.3 Net incremental revenue statement 51
4.1 Quantity of churn 61
5.1 AON analysis 67
5.2 MOU analysis 68
5.3 MOU vs. RECHARGE analysis 69
6.1 Results of promo pack 77
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LIST OF ANNEXURES:
A-1 SMS reminder script 83
A-2 Tele calling script 84
A-3 IVR script 85
A-4 Specimen of MIS report (tele calling) 86
A-5 Record of daily track of STV recharge 87
A-6 Raw data for churn analysis 89
A-7 MOU trend analysis data 95
A-8 Primary research data sample 100
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS:
AON Age on network
ARPU Average revenue per user
ASP Advertising and sales promotion
CAF Customer application form
CDMA Code division multiple access
CLV Customer lifetime value
FSP Fixed service provider
GSM Global system for mobile communication
ICRA Indian credit rating agency
ILD International long distance
IVR Interactive voice response
MDN Mobile directory number
MIS Management information system
MNP Mobile number portability
MOU Minutes of usage
NLD National long distance
OFFNET Off-network calls
ONNET On-network calls
OTAF On the air function time
REC BASE Recharge base
SMS Short message service
STV Special tariff voucher
TRAI Telecom regulatory authority of India
USSD Unstructured supplementary services data
UNR Usage and revenue
VAS Value added services
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INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND:
India, like many other countries of the world, has adopted a gradual approach to telecom
sector reform through selective privatization and managed competition in different segments
of the telecom market.
To begin with, India introduced private competition in value-added services in 1992 followed by
opening up of cellular and basic services for local area to private competition. The Telecom
Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) was constituted in 1997 as an independent regulator in this
sector. Competition was also introduced in national long distance (NLD) and international long
distance (ILD) telephony at the start of that current decade.
Despite asymmetry in initial market endowments between public sector incumbents and
private operators, the act of opening up of the market unleashed dynamism that was hitherto
latent in the sector.
Three types of players now exist in ' Telecom Industry India ' community -
State owned companies like - BSNL and MTNL.
Private Indian owned companies like - Reliance communications and Tata Teleservices.
Foreign invested companies like – Vodafone, Bharti Tele-Ventures, Escotel, Idea Cellular,
BPL Mobile, Spice Communications etc.
The Indian mobile services market is highly competitive with six to eight players operating in
each of the 23 telecom circles that the country is divided into. The intensity of competition has
increased in recent months following the launch of GSM services by Reliance Communications
(RCom) and Tata DoCoMo, CDMA services by Sistema Shyam; and the continuing pan-Indian
GSM rollout by Aircel, Idea Cellular (Idea), and Vodafone Essar (Vodafone).
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The competitive intensity is expected to increase even further as new licensees launch their
services and Mobile Number Portability (MNP) is introduced in India.
The recent increase in competition in the Indian mobile services market is evident from the
aggressive tariff plans being introduced by players, a move that has led to a decline in the
average revenue per user (ARPU), revenue growth, and profitability of the industry. Besides,
profitability of the mobile service providers is also being impacted by the increasing share of
low ARPU subscribers in incremental additions, the bulk of which is happening in the semi-
urban and rural areas where the mobile penetration rates are still low.
While India remains one of the fastest growing mobile services markets globally by subscriber
addition and still presents an opportunity for further growth, the rates of revenue growth and
margins of the mobile service providers are expected to decline as the intensity of competition
increases further.
Although some of the incumbent operators with strong financials, extensive networks, and
larger share of high paying customers would be better positioned to withstand the kind of
competitive pressures anticipated, high capital expenditure on 3G may well lead to continued
negative free cash flows and push up funding requirements. Intensified competition and the
aggressive pricing strategies adopted by the existing operators could challenge the
sustainability of the new entrants as breaking even at lower tariffs would take longer.
This would also imply delay in the generation of positive cash flows for the new entrants. Given
this scenario, it is likely that the Indian mobile services market would see some consolidation
over the medium to long term.
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PURPOSE AND SCOPE:
The main purpose of this project is to understand the various verticals of marketing function at
Reliance Communications. An in-depth analysis of the customer base was done based on the
primary data available, in order to gain insights into the consumer behavior patterns. Based on
these patterns further studies were conducted to develop revenue generating models for the
company.
This project helped me in gaining insights about how a telecom firm is dealing with the existing
price war, declining revenues and increasing competition. It is an opportunity for me to be a
part of the corporate world. Further, it will also help in reaching my objective of understanding
and analyzing the telecom industry as a whole.
The scope for doing this project is limited to the geographic boundaries of Delhi and NCR and
the data that is available while conducting the studies. The resources available are utilized to
the optimum. It will help me to understand the highly competitive environment and means of
tackling the surmounting pressure over the telecom sector.
OBJECTIVE:
The project has following objectives:
Understand the basic consumer behavior pattern and up selling products based on
these patterns.
Analyze reasons for customer attrition and finding solutions to the impending problems.
To make logical and practically feasible suggestions in order to make improvements in
the system thereby making it swift, efficient and more profitable.
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METHODOLOGY:
To achieve the objective of the project following methodology will be used.
Collection of data
Data is collected from two sources, Internal and External.
Internal data is collected from the activities within the firm like new product
development, customer records etc.
External data is collected through primary and secondary research.
Primary Research
Understanding the work though communication with its employees.
Tele calling customers in order to gain insights into their feedback
Visiting various Reliance mobile stores and reliance world stores to gain feedback
Merits of Primary data:
It is original in nature.
It is more reliable authentic and accurate.
It is generally free from bias.
It exactly matches the needs of project.
Secondary Research
Collecting secondary data to understand the market of the product as a whole.
Collection of the database of the company and its competitors.
Reading annual reports of company and its competitors.
Reading papers published by ICRA and other market research firms, on industry analysis
of telecom sector.
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Merits of secondary data:
It is readily available.
It is much less expensive as compared to primary data.
It is less time consuming as compared to primary data.
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:
There is a possibility of respondents’ bias or no response bias while conducting
the primary research.
The sample taken for the primary research might not be true representative of
the total population.
Inadequacy of data.
Competitive analysis is majorly dependant on secondary resources of data.
Control sample might be adulterated due to word-of-mouth.
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REVIEW OF LITERATURE:
RNCOS, May 2008, “Indian Telecom Analysis (2008-2012)”
(www.research and markets.com)
The report provides a detailed study of the Indian telecom sector and gives an analysis of the
competitive environment in the industry. It gives an insight into the fixed, mobile, Internet and
broadband services in terms of players, number of subscribers, and market share in India. The
report also discusses the growth drivers, opportunities, and future outlook of the Indian
telecom sector to help clients identify growth opportunities in the market.
With a strong population of over 1.1 Billion, India has become one of the most dynamic and
promising telecom markets of the world. In recent times, the country has emerged as one of
the fastest growing telecom markets in the world. During 2003-2007, the country witnessed the
number of phones increasing more than triple and total tele-density rising from 5.1% to 18.2%.
The major key findings from this report are as follows:
The total telecom subscription in India surged at a CAGR of over 38% from fiscal 2003 to
fiscal 2007, making the country the third largest telecom market in the world.
Mobile phones accounted for 80.2% of the total telephone subscriber base at the end of
March 2007.
The Internet subscriber base in the country, as on March 31, 2007, stood at 9.3 Million
as compared to 6.9 Million on March 31, 2006 registering a growth of 34.8%.
By fiscal 2010, Indian will require around 330,000 telecom network towers.
To meet this enormous need, the telecom operators are resorting to network infrastructure
sharing.
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The major key issues & facts analyzed are as follows:
The current scenario of the Indian telecom sector.
The factors critical to the success of the industry.
The opportunities exist for the Indian telecom market.
The future outlook of the telecom market in India.
The emerging technologies in the Indian telecom sector.
The major players in the Indian telecom market and how are they performing.
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Impact of Increased Competition on Mobile Service Industry:
(www.icra.in)
The report provides an overview of the financials of the telecom industry and various players in
the Indian telecom sector. It gives a detailed analysis of the competition prevalent in the Indian
telecom industry. It summarizes the reasons for declining revenues, increasing price war,
increasing rate of customer attrition and also the importance of value added services for mobile
service providers.
The facts that the report presents are as follows:
The Indian mobile services market is highly competitive with six to eight players
operating in each of the 23 telecom circles that the country is divided into.
Most telecom operators reported a decline in revenues from mobile services in Q2,
2009-10 despite growth in their mobile subscriber base.
With mobile penetration in the urban areas having reached high levels already (urban
tele-density was 87.18% as against rural tele-density of 15.35%, both as in June 2009),
subscriber additions are expected to happen largely in the semi-urban and rural areas,
which in turn would impact ARPU further.
With TRAI recommending introduction of MNP, the domestic telecom sector appears
poised for a paradigm shift. The reasons for seeking the introduction of MNP are
compelling: to promote competition among mobile service operators so that service
levels can improve further and to provide users the right to change operators at minimal
cost and with minimal inconvenience.
19
Currently, the contribution of VAS to the total mobile revenues of Indian telecom
operators is just 9-10%, which is significantly lower than the same of operators in the
developed markets.
20
Winning the customer churn battle in the wireless industry:
(Booz Allen and Hamilton, INSIGHTS, information technology group, Volume I issue I)
In 2001, customer churn cost wireless telephone carriers an estimated $10 billion a year.
Industry analyst forecasts suggested that number could be $19 billion by 2003. Wireless churn
rates were skyrocketing for several reasons. As mobile service becomes a commodity, even
minor problems could drive a customer to a competitor.
With more players and competing services, it’s getting harder for traditional wireless operators
to retain customers. There’s also the matter of involuntary churn when customers default on
their bills. Wireless operators were fighting back against churn, but most weren’t getting the
results they wanted.
The report provides a detailed history of churn in the wireless industry in the US. This Insight
presents a comprehensive approach developed by Booz·Allen & Hamilton that helps
organizations identify root causes of customer churn and enables them to move beyond
incremental fixes to achieve permanent process improvements and cost reduction.
The key focus areas of this report are:
According to forecasts from the International 3 Data Corporation, annual industry churn
rates will rise.
There are two types of customer churn: voluntary churn where customers choose to
switch carriers or terminate their use of wireless services, and involuntary churn where
service is deactivated due to missed payments, bad debts, etc.
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Booz Allen and Hamilton have developed a model to reduce churn which is presented
below in a summarized form:
EIGHT ELEMENTS TO REDUCE CHURN
Fig 1.1
22
As the wireless industry evolves and use of wireless Internet services expands, customer
churn is expected to increase, which will lead to further destruction of shareholder
value.
23
After 3G, TD-LTE may drive telecom
(April 9, 2010. Economic times)
This article talks about continuous innovation in the telecom sector on the technology front. It
details the big leaps that the telecom took from 2G to 3G and now to TD-LTE.
TD-LTE , or Time Division Long Term Evolution, caters to peak download speeds of 100 Mbps on
mobile phones, compared to the 20 Mbps for 3G and 40 Mbps for Wimax. LTE brings to the
table additional spectrum, more capacity , lower cost, and is essential to take mobile
broadband to the mass market.
US-based Qualcomm and Sweden's Ericcson aim to piggyback on TD-LTE , hoping that it will
help them gain a toe-hold in India, the world's fastest growing mobile market . Qualcomm is to
participate in the broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum auction. If it does secure its bid in
the auction, India could well become the first country after China to roll out TD-LTE .
The government has slotted the sale of two 2.3 GHz blocks of spectrum on April 11, providing
20 MHz spectrum in each of the country's 22 telecom circles. The base price has been set at $
385 million . However, Qualcomm will need an Indian partner for its TD-LTE foray in the country
since foreign direct investment is limited to 74%.
The US Telco aims to use the 2.3 GHz spectrum band offered for TD-LTE-based BWA services.
Sources in the know told TOI that the company would bid aggressively to corner one of the two
BWA slots up for sale.
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INDUSTRY:
INTRODUCTION
The telecom industry is one of the fastest growing industries in India. India has nearly 200
million telephone lines making it the third largest network in the world after China and USA.
With a growth rate of 45%, Indian telecom industry has the highest growth rate in the world.
History of Indian Telecommunications started in 1851 when the first operational land lines were
laid by the government near Calcutta (seat of British power).
Telephone services were introduced in India in 1881. In 1883 telephone services were merged
with the postal system. Indian Radio Telegraph Company (IRT) was formed in 1923.
After independence in 1947, all the foreign telecommunication companies were nationalized to
form the Posts, Telephone and Telegraph (PTT), a monopoly run by the government's Ministry
of Communications. Telecom sector was considered as a strategic service and the government
considered it best to bring under state's control.
In 1986, two wholly government-owned companies were created: the Videsh Sanchar Nigam
Limited (VSNL) for international telecommunications and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited
(MTNL) for service in metropolitan areas.
Telecommunication sector in India can be divided into two segments: Fixed Service Provider
(FSPs), and Cellular Services. Fixed line services consist of basic services, national or domestic
long distance and international long distance services. The state operators (BSNL and MTNL),
account for almost 90 per cent of revenues from basic services. Private sector services are
presently available in selective urban areas, and collectively account for less than 5 per cent of
subscriptions.
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Cellular services can be further divided into two categories: Global System for Mobile
Communications (GSM) and Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA).
The GSM sector is dominated by Airtel, Vodafone-Hutch, and Idea Cellular, while the CDMA
sector is dominated by Reliance Communications and Tata Indicom. Opening up of international
and domestic long distance telephony services are the major growth drivers for cellular
industry.
India surpasses the USA as the world’s second largest mobile market. The last five years have
witnessed the number of phones more than quadruple in India, taking the total number to
300.5 million at the end of March 2008. 73.7% of the country’s mobile customers are
subscribed to GSM and the remainders are CDMA customers.
Mobile growth is forecasted to remain in the double digits until the end of the forecasted
period, with an average growth rate of 22.8% between 2007 and the end of 2012.
At that time, mobile subscribers are forecasted to have reached 643.0 million and a penetration
rate of 51.8%.With over 1.1 billion inhabitants and a highly competitive telecom market, India is
and will remain one of the world’s most dynamic and promising telecom markets for the next
five years, even surpassing China in terms of market vitality.
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Fig 2.1
Source: Operator's Website, Press Release & Regulatory
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MARKET STRUCTURE:
Telecom reforms across the world are energizing businesses and people. Long considered a
natural monopoly, recent technological developments have facilitated competition in this
sector leading to increased access to telecom services and gains in efficiency and quality of
service. India has emerged as an international destination for processing and distribution of
information.
Availability of infrastructure for electronically transferring and assessing information are critical
to maintaining the competitive advantage that it currently enjoys and embracing telecom
reforms is a part of achieving that goal. Though the results of telecom reforms the world over
have been positive on average; domestic political economy and institutions have impacted
every country experience and India is no exception. India’s economic liberalization program
began in 1991.
Aimed at raising the economy from low-growth equilibrium and putting it on a sustained
growth path, these reforms targeted a wide range of sectors – from international trade to
finance and infrastructure. Following these reforms, traditional sectors such as agriculture and
industry that used to contribute nearly 70 per cent of the GDP now constitute an increasingly
smaller share of economic output.
Simultaneously, there has been rapid growth in the service sector that now contributes nearly
48 per cent to GDP (1998) and is growing at 8 per cent per annum. Indian policy-makers also
increasingly recognized the need for reforms and investment in telecommunication
infrastructure in order to realize the forecasted economic and social growth rate of the country.
It has been shown that investment in telecommunications infrastructure leads to economic
growth in various ways.
While telecommunication investment itself leads to growth by creating a demand for the
goods and services used in their production, the economic returns on this investment are far
greater than the returns from the investment alone. The multiplier effect of telecom
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investment on GDP is likely to be higher because of both the direct and indirect effect that this
investment has on production.
However, it has also been shown that since telecommunications infrastructure is characterized
by network externalities the positive growth effects of investment in this sector are subject to
having achieved a critical mass in a given country’s communications infrastructure.
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COMPETITION IN THE MARKET:
A characteristic of telecom industry is heavy dependency on Advertisement and Promotional
Strategies-Each company viz. Airtel, Vodafone, Reliance Communications, Tata Indicom and
BSNL spend lots of funds on acquiring Indian movie stars and sport stars. Thus due to the cost
of heavy expenditure on Advertisement the industry is more or less a very heavy revenue
generating industry for a lot of other sectors.
A characteristic of this kind of Competition is the close interdependence between the different
companies regarding each company’s policy decisions. These companies have to monitor each
activity of its competitors and even a little ignorance can prove very costly. Like, when Reliance
started the ONE-INDIA plan, Airtel, Vodafone and others also started and pushed similar plans.
Fig 3.1 Source: Operator's Website, Press Release & Regulatory
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In this kind of competition the major players occupy a very high market share and these players
could dictate terms for the other players but in Indian Telecom Industry all the players are very
close in terms of market share so the question of dictating terms comes only when a company
takes the First-mover Advantage. Then it could dictate terms for the particular time period but
again the other companies are always at their heels so the question of keeping the advantage
for a long time doesn’t seek in.
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COMPANY PROFILE: RELIANCE
COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
INTRODUCTION
Reliance Communications Limited founded by the late Shri Dhirubhai H Ambani (1932-2002) is
the flagship company of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. The Reliance Anil Dhirubhai
Ambani Group currently has a net worth in excess of Rs. 63000 crore, cash flows of Rs. 12000
crore, net profit of Rs. 8000 crore and zero net debt.
RCOM is India’s largest integrated and fully converged communications service provider in the
private sector, and has been rated among “Asia’s Top 5 Most Valuable Telecom Companies”.
Reliance Communications is India's foremost and truly integrated telecommunications service
provider.
The Company, with a customer base of over 100 million including over 2 million individual
overseas retail customers, ranks 4th among the Top 10 Telecom companies in the world by
number of customers in a single country.
Reliance Communications corporate clientele includes 2,100 Indian and multinational
corporations, and over 800 global, regional and domestic carriers. Reliance Communications
has established a pan-India, next generation, integrated (wireless and wireline), convergent
(voice, data and video) digital network that is capable of supporting best of- class services
spanning the entire communications value chain, covering over 20,000 towns and 450,000
villages.
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It owns and operates the world's largest next generation IP enabled connectivity infrastructure,
comprising over 175,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable systems in India, USA, Europe, Middle
East and the Asia Pacific region.
The Reliance Communications network consists of 60,000 kilometers of optical fiber cables
spanning the length and breadth of India. These cables can carry thousands of billions of bits
per second and can instantly connect one part of the country with another.
This physical network and its associated infrastructure will cover over 600 cities and towns in 18
of the country's 21 circles, 229 of the nation’s 323 Long Distance Charging Areas and broadband
connectivity to over 190 cities.
This infrastructure will be backed by state-of-the-art information management systems and a
customer-focused organization. Reliance Communications objective is to create value for our
customers.
Reliance will innovate ceaselessly so that state-of-the-art technology can be leveraged to create
products and services that are affordable. Reliance has a demonstrated track record of
conceptualizing, and executing complex, multi-billion dollar projects in a timely and cost
effective manner.
Reliance Communications is committed to delivering products and services of world class
quality to customers. It has attracted the best people in each of its businesses, by empowering
people, providing attractive growth opportunities, and creating a world class working
environment.
33
Reliance Communications believes that knowledge resides in people, and has, accordingly,
always built its growth plans around people. It is a youthful enterprise, with a strong
entrepreneurial spirit, fostering an environment that facilitates informality and flexibility, and
emphasizes depth of planning and speed of execution.
Fig 4.1
Source: Operator's Website, Press Release & Regulatory
34
The following attributes define future leadership at Reliance Communications:
Customer centricity.
Initiative and an attitude of ownership.
Passion for excellence and an ability to energize.
Problem solving and an innovative "can do" mindset.
Entrepreneurship and stretch.
The strong underlying fundamentals of the Indian economy, and the latent demand potential in
our markets, provide the platform for building world scale businesses. Reliance
Communications leadership in its several businesses is centered around its ability to build world
scale assets, obtaining the benefits of economies of scale, and competing on an even level with
the global peer group.
Reliance Communications leverages its core competencies to create a sustainable competitive
advantage in its various businesses. Today, Reliance Communications is revolutionizing the way
India communicates and networks, truly bringing about a new way of life.
VISION
Reliance Communications has a vision to leverage its strengths to execute complex global-scale
projects to facilitate leading-edge information and communication services affordable to all
individual consumers and businesses in India. It also aims to offer unparalleled value to create
customer delight and enhance business productivity. It also focuses on generating value for
their capabilities beyond Indian borders and thus enabling millions of India's knowledge
workers to deliver their services globally.
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BUSINESS MIX
Fig 5.1
Source: Annual Report of Reliance Communications, 2007-2008
It covers an entire range of products and services:
Wireless
Tower
Globalcom
Enterprise
Home
Other businesses
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MARKETING AT RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS:
At reliance we have three verticals of marketing which include every functional aspect of the
business that a telecom firm undertakes.
Fig 6.1
Marketing at reliance
communications:
PRODUCT
Customer Acquisition
Increase sub base
UnR (usage and revenue)
Increase usage
Increase ARPU
MARCOM
Branding
ASP
37
The various divisions of marketing at reliance involve a bundle of activities. Customer
acquisition basically involves increasing the subscriber base and thereby increasing the
revenues generated. On the other hand UnR functions to increase the Average revenue per
user (ARPU). This primarily involves cross selling and up selling of products in order to gain
maximum revenue from the existing customers. This accounts for the maximum amount of the
revenue generated by the company.
The third and a very important aspect of marketing at Reliance Communications is the
MARCOM (Marketing communications). This team handles the branding, advertising and sales
promotion for the company thereby creating the brand itself. It works well in coordination with
the other verticals of marketing since the other two focus on customization and segment
marketing while branding generally focuses on mass marketing.
38
UPSELLING AND PACK PENETRATION
UPSELLING:
Up selling is a sales technique designed to increase the sales invoice. It’s an important business
concept as it requires sales people to not be order takers, but instead be active sellers. Up
selling involves promoting upgrades or add-ons to customers that are extra purchases and
increase sales. When you up sell you offer the customer another product for purchase.
Customers tend to be very sale- or bargain-focused. Highlighting special offers will increase
conversion rates and improve basket size. For example, if users put a regular chicken into their
shopping basket, you can suggest an organic chicken on special that might cost a little more
than the regular chicken, but one they might not normally consider at full price. Similarly at
Reliance, UnR forms a major chunk of the marketing function.
CROSS SELLING:
Cross-selling is defined as "the action or practice of selling among or between established
clients, markets, traders, etc." or "that of selling an additional product or service to an existing
customer". In practice businesses define cross-selling in many different ways. Elements that
might influence the definition might include: the size of the business, the industry sector it
operates within and the financial motivations of those required to define the term.
The objectives of cross-selling can be either to increase the income derived from the client(s)
or to protect the relationship with the client(s). The approach to the process of cross-selling can
be varied. Unlike the acquiring of new business, cross-selling involves an element of risk that
existing relationships with the client could be disrupted. For this reason it is important to
ensure that the additional product or service being sold to the client(s) enhances the value the
client(s) get from the organization.
39
BUSINESS CHALLENGE:
Today’s service providers face a tough market environment. There is little differentiation in
basic e-mail capabilities, and many providers offer e-mail at no cost. In this type of
environment, customers often chase the lowest price, using their service provider only as a
means of access.
Once online, subscribers often go elsewhere for e-mail and other services such as basic
calendaring, address books, and instant messaging. With no incentive to remain loyal,
subscribers are even more likely to leave — which in turn perpetuates the cycle. Other factors
— such as number portability for wireless services — are accelerating this trend for wireless
providers.
Against this backdrop, there continues to be upward pressure on operating costs. In many
cases, service providers face challenges to increase top-line revenue and reduce churn, while at
the same time maintaining or even reducing costs.
In order to accomplish these goals, many service providers are evaluating their existing
infrastructure and alternatives, looking for ways to improve services and reduce costs through
consolidation, performance improvements, and better support. Looking to attract and retain
customers, many service providers are examining their options for new markets, as well as
value-added and more profitable services.
Increasing Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)
As features and capabilities for standard e-mail mature, there is a relentless drive toward
commodity pricing. U.S. service providers offer basic e-mail service for as little as ten dollars per
month. The shifting profile of the global subscriber base will contribute significantly to the
declining average revenue per user (ARPU).
40
Many analysts say that developed countries will reach maximum penetration within the next
two to three years, which is expected to drive downward pressure on pricing as service
providers fight to maintain their subscriber bases. Worldwide, it is expected that new
subscriber growth will come from developing and emerging economies such as the Far East —
typically areas with a lower price threshold.
As barriers to entry into the service provider market fall and the market expands, the number
of service providers will also grow, shrinking the market share of existing providers and
increasing competition for subscribers. Developing new services to retain existing customers
and, at the same time, attract new customers is essential for maintaining a place in this
dynamic market.
Attracting and Retaining Consumer and Business Customers
Most service providers do not share subscriber turnover statistics, though industry reports
suggest that larger Internet service providers have larger churn rates. In the U. S., churn rates
for the top ten service providers range from less than one percent to almost five percent
monthly1. For a service provider with 500,000 subscribers, this translates to a loss of up to
25,000 subscribers a month.
Price continues to be the top reason to switch providers, but it is not the only one. Attracting
and retaining customers requires developing services that promote loyalty. Creating services
that customers cannot get elsewhere — and on which they depend — is the best way to
develop devoted subscribers.
Customer support, service availability, and uncontrolled spam are also major factors in
customer churn. In the wireless market, number portability has accelerated customer turnover
41
from a user perspective, most service providers offer few reasons to keep customers from
switching to less expensive providers. Value-added services and tightly integrated services,
however, provide incentives for customers to stay.
Reducing Costs
Many service providers point to spam and viruses as the single biggest factor associated with
increasing costs. Each day, the largest providers filter out billions of messages, and it is
estimated that over 60 percent of all message traffic is spam. Some providers report that up to
90 percent of e-mails are spam. In addition to the time and cost associated with reducing spam,
service providers also spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to stop viruses from
spreading. It’s a lot of effort just to deliver the mail.
But spam and viruses are not the only issues affecting costs. Poor scalability and performance,
increasing licensing fees, and the high cost of maintaining infrastructure and supporting
customers also contribute to rising costs. Not to mention the fact that overall message traffic is
growing. And, at the same time, some messaging vendors are ending support for existing
product lines, forcing costly migration to other products or to other vendors.
42
THE NEED FOR UPSELLING AND CROSS SELLING AT R-COMM:
Special tariff vouchers (STV) are the various prepaid packs designed by reliance
communications for different segments, in order to benefit the customers, based on their usage
patterns. These help customers to reduce the call rates and form a great customer retention
tool in this price-sensitive telecom market. Following are the tariff vouchers available to
Reliance customers:
1) Onnet packs:
o MRP 27: This pack is designed for people who heavily make local calls from
reliance to reliance mobile. With this pack, the call rates for local on-network
calls fall down to as low as 20p per minute.
o MRP 77: This pack is designed for people who heavily make calls from reliance to
reliance mobile. With this pack, the call rates for STD and local on-network calls
fall down to as low as 20p per minute.
2) Night Calling Packs:
o MRP 29: All reliance to reliance local mobile calls free from 11 pm to 6 am.
o MRP 59: All reliance to reliance STD and local calls free from 11pm to 6am and all
calls on other networks at half the tariff.
STVs contribute around 8% to the total revenues generated by the company thus making it an
important component of the profit pie.
CASE FOCUS:
The project aimed at profiling the customers based on their usage of these STVs and also to
understand the usage pattern. This project focused on analyzing the effectiveness of these STVs
as a customer retention tool.
43
CASE DATA
To begin with the analysis, the data for the STV uptake in the month of January was analyzed. It
was seen that starting from January 1, 2010 till January 15, 2010, almost 26000 customers had
recharged using the special tariff vouchers.
Ideally these customers should have recharged again with the special tariff vouchers between
February 1, 2010 and February 15, 2010 since all the STVs come with a validity of 30 days. But
when these customers were mapped for the recharge with the STVs after 30 days, it was seen
that only 9800 people out of this 26000 had recharged using the STVs.
MRP TOTAL
RECHARGE
(1-15 JAN)
REPEAT
RECHARGE
(1-15 FEB)
NOT
REPEATED
(1-15) FEB
RECHARGE % NOT
RECHARGE %
27 3034 933 2101 31% 69%
29 5040 1790 3250 36% 64%
59 8803 4144 4659 47% 54%
77 9724 2972 6770 31% 69%
TOTAL 26619 9839 16780 37% 63%
Table 1.1
Thus it was seen that only 37% of the customers were re-using the STVs.
The Objective of this project, thus, was to increase this repeat recharge percentage from 37%
to at least 50%.
44
METHODOLGY:
Primary research:
The major requirement of the project was to find out the reasons for such a low
percentage of repeat recharge of the STVs undertaken by the customers. The research
and the surveys conducted were mainly primary in nature and involved telephonic
interviews of such customers who had taken up the STV recharge in the month of
January and not in February. For keeping the process simple yet free from errors, a
sample size of 30 people was taken. 30 customers for each of the special tariff voucher
were interviewed to make the sample a true representative of the population.
FINDINGS:
Following were the findings of the varied response from the customers:
Fig 7.1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
27 29 59 77
A
B
C
A= wasn’t aware of expiry or didn’t remember
B= didn’t need the STV anymore
C=others
(x axis= MRP of the
STV)
(y axis=
percentage of
customers
responding to a
specific option)
45
Responses:
1) STV Rs. 27/-
50% of the respondents said that either they were not aware that the voucher was
valid only for 30 days or they forgot that the validity had expired.
20% of the respondents said that their calls are mostly off net.
30% of the respondents pointed out varied reasons like they did not feel the need
to recharge, or the shopkeeper gave them incomplete or incorrect information
regarding the STV.
2) STV Rs. 29/-
45% of the respondents replied that they did not need the voucher during this
period.
40% of the respondents cited that either they were not aware that the voucher
was valid only for 30 days or they forgot that the validity had expired.
Rest of the respondents gave various reasons.
3) STV Rs. 59/-
60% of the respondents said that either they were not aware that the voucher was
valid only for 30 days or they forgot that the validity had expired.
25% said they didn’t need the voucher anymore.
Rest of the respondents gave various reasons.
46
4) STV of 77/-
50% of the respondents find it expensive.
30% of the respondents said they mostly call STDs off net.
Few said that they were unaware about the validity of 30 days.
Remaining cited various reasons.
PROBLEM AREAS:
It was seen that most of the respondents who had taken various STVs cited that either they
were unaware of the 30 days validity or they forgot to get the recharge. Reliance did not have
any feature to notify customers on the expiry of special tariff vouchers.
In order to overcome this problem it was suggested that these customers must be reminded
about the expiry of their tariff vouchers and by emphasizing the benefits of these products the
customers were encouraged to recharge with the STVs.
47
STRATEGY ADOPTED:
A communication plan was devised for the customers in order to notify them on the expiry of
the special tariff vouchers.
There are three basic tools for communication that are generally used by the UnR team in
order to notify the customers and promote the various new offers to the customers. The first
one is the short message service (SMS) that are sent by the company to its customers. SMSes
are known to be a very effective communication tool if used properly after identifying the
target base.
The second method of communication is the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) in which, a pre-
recorded message is relayed on the target MDNs. This method is not known to be as effective
as SMS, because it has been observed that many people disconnect the call before listening to
complete message being relayed.
The third and most expensive method of customer communication is the Tele-calling. Reliance
communication has outsourced it tele-calling needs to an agency where the GSM telecalling is
handled by 7 telecallers trained by that particular agency. This method though expensive, is
known for the “human-element” involved in the process.
People generally tend to retain the message longer since the whole process is more “customer-
involving” as compared to the other two methods.
48
Fig 8.1
Following was the communication plan devised to notify customers about the expiry of the
various tariff vouchers:
1. On a daily basis a list of all those customers was generated whose STV validity was
expiring within following two days.
2. All such customers were sent reminder SMSes a day before the expiry, on the day of
expiry and a day after expiry.
3. Also the customers were reminded about the expiry of STVs on the date of expiry of the
validity through IVR messages.
4. Customers who were using the STVs of Rs.59 and Rs. 77 were also informed about the
expiry date through telecalling.
49
OBSERVATION AND RESULTS:
Fig 9.1
25 feb-12march 2010
MRP Total Rech % Rech not rech %
27 2210 952 43% 57%
29 3656 1526 42% 58%
59 10837 5143 47% 53%
77 9243 4090 44% 56%
total 25946 11711 45% 55%
Table 2.1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
27 29 59 77
earlier rech %
now rech %
50
INCREMENTAL REVENUE STATEMENT:
Once the increase in percentage of repeat recharge with the special tariff voucher is seen, it is
important to calculate the incremental revenue as compared to the month before promotion.
MRP earlier rech % now rech % differential % total
base
incremental
27 31% 43% 12% 9900 32076
29 36% 42% 3% 8700 7570
59 47% 47% 0% 25500 0
77 31% 44% 9% 21000 145530
grand total 185176
Table 3.1
There are certain types of costs associated with all the promotional activities undertaken by a
company. The profit that is earned out of such activities is the net incremental revenue after
taking into account all direct and latent costs.
The costs associated with each of the tool of communication are summarized below:
Activity cost/month/units cost/day/unit units used total cost/month
IVR 16500/30000ivrs 0.0183 1000 550
telecalling 12500/person 416.67 4 50000
total/month 50550
Table 3.2
Thus, the net incremental revenue is calculated by subtracting the costs from the total
incremental revenue, as shown below.
51
MRP earlier rech % now rech % differential % total base incremental
27 31% 43% 12% 9900 32076
29 36% 42% 3% 8700 7570
59 47% 47% 0% 25500 0
77 31% 44% 9% 21000 145530
grand total 185176
net incr
rev/month 134626
Table 3.3
WAY FORWARD:
It was seen that after the customers were reminded about the validity expiry of the STVs, the
repeat recharge percentage had drastically increased from 37% in January to 45% in Feb-Mar.
For the purpose of consistency, since the data before promotion was only taken for 15 days,
even after promotion the data for 15 days was considered.
Thus it was seen that if customers were reminded of the expiry of STV, the repeat recharge
ratio improved a lot. Taking these results into consideration, the company decided to create an
automated process wherein all those customers whose STV was about to expire were to be
reminded to take up the recharge, and the SMSes were sent by a computer generated database
on a daily basis. Till the time this system becomes functional, this database is generated
manually using MS Access.
52
CHURN ANALYSIS AND CUSTOMER
RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT:
DEFINING CUSTOMER CHURN:
Churn analysis is the calculation of the rate of attrition in the customer base of any company. It
involves identifying those consumers who are most likely to discontinue using your service or
product.
Churn analysis is extremely helpful in developing a sustainable and robust strategy for customer
retention in your company.
When you are aware of the percentage of customers who end their relationship with your
company in a given time period you can easily come up with a detailed analysis of the causes
for the churn rate. This helps in developing effective customer retention programs for your
company.
Churn rate typically applies to many industries chiefly among them are subscription services,
such as long-distance phone service or magazines. Churn analysis helps in understanding the
behavior of customers that unsubscribe and move their business to a competitor and predicting
the likelihood of this event to occur. Other uses vary from calculating employee attrition in any
given company.
WHY IS CHURN ANALYSIS IMPORTANT?
The subject of customer retention, loyalty, and churn is receiving attention in many industries.
This is important in the customer lifetime value context. A company will have a sense of how
53
much is really being lost because of the customer churn and the scale of the efforts that would
be appropriate for retention campaign.
The mass marketing approach cannot succeed in the diversity of consumer business today.
Customer value analysis along with customer churn predictions will help marketing programs
target more specific groups of customers.
Prepaid connections in telecom sector are characterized by customers who stay with a
company not for a very long time. Customers usually have a tendency to switch over to
different service providers very often. In the company’s perspective this produces an unstable
environment for the customer relationship management.
The potential loss of revenue because of customer churn in this case can be huge. This paper
will present a customer churn analysis in GSM prepaid at Reliance Communications. The goal of
this paper is twofold. First the churning customers are analyzed in this highly unpredictable
segment. The second objective is a forecast of churning customers based on a Pro-active
model.
54
THE NEED FOR CUSTOMER CHURN PREDICTION:
Evolution and integration of new technologies consistently challenge the competitiveness of
various communication service providers. Service providers’ offerings are converging to retain
and build on their greatest asset, their customer base.
The industry today confronts the following challenges:
Growing Customer Demand: Mass customization rather than mass marketing by
understanding customer preferences and behaviors
Need for Revenue Optimization: Measuring and predicting ROI of Telecom companies
to maximize profits and minimize loss
Growing Competition: Globalization of markets and consumers, de-regulation, resulting
in competition.
Fig 10.1
55
CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE:
“Customer Lifetime value (CLV) is usually defined as the total net income that can be
obtained from a customer during their time in the system. CLV is a key metric in analyzing
customer churn, revenue and managing campaigns.”
- Hoekstra and Huizingh, 1999
Fig 11.1
Figure: CLV - Conceptual Model
It is important to note that CLV of future customers is also referred to as Customer Equity (CE)
and this value helps in estimating the overall firm value.
56
CLV – One Solution for Key Business Process Outcomes and Issues:
Acquisition: Better spend analysis and planning to acquire customers.
Targeting: Identification of customer segment with maximum profitability for
focused campaigns.
Return on investment (ROI): Realistic estimation of firm value.
The focus on customer churn is to determinate the customers who are at risk of leaving and if
possible on the analysis whether those customers are worth retaining. The churn analysis is
highly dependent on the definition of the customer churn.
The business sector and customer relationship affects the outcome how churning customers
are detected. Example in credit card business customers can easily start using another credit
card, so the only indicator for the previous card company is declining transactions.
On the other hand for example wireless telecom industry a customer can switch one carrier to
another and keep the same phone number. In this case the previous carrier will get the signal
right at the churning moment.
The customer churn is closely related to the customer retention rate and loyalty. Hwang et al.
defines the customer defection the hottest issue in highly competitive wireless telecom
industry.
Their LTV suggest that churn rate of a customer has strong impact to the LTV value because it
affects the length of service and the future revenue. Hwang et al. also defines the customer
loyalty as the index that customers would like to stay with the company. Churn describes the
number or percentage of regular customers who abandon relationship with service provider.
Customer loyalty =1 - Churn rate
57
Wireless prepaid market is a typical market sector where a customer is regularly switching from
one company to another. Customers usually switch from one operator to another in short
periods of time. This makes customer churn a priority for most companies in the telecom
sector.
TYPES OF CHURN:
There are two types of customer churn: voluntary churn where customers choose to switch
carriers or terminate their use of wireless services, and involuntary churn where service is
deactivated due to missed payments, bad debts, etc.
Involuntary churn is not a possibility in prepaid services, thus we focus entirely on voluntary
churn.
58
CASE DATA:
In this study the customer database of Reliance communications (GSM Prepaid) was analyzed.
The data at hand was collected for the period of October 2009 – February 2010. The data was
analyzed month on month and was totally based on the monthly usage of the particular MDN.
The customers who were using a particular connection for a while and suddenly if in any
particular month the usage for the same had dropped to zero minutes of usage, the customer
was assumed to be churned in that particular month.
To keep the data free from any error arising on the account of coincidental drop in the MOU,
the numbers were also checked for usage in next two months and only those customers were
considered to have churned whose MOU were consistently zero for three consecutive months.
Further the data was categorized on different variables so as to form a basis to be able to
predict the churn in coming months.
CASE FOCUS:
As mentioned previously customers’ value to a company is at the heart of all customer
management strategy.
The setup in telecom sector makes it hard to define customer churn based on customer
profitability. The definition of the churn in this case is based on the current usage indicator (C1).
This indicator C1 tells whether the customer is currently using the prepaid services or not. This
simple definition makes it easy to detect the exact moment of churn.
Those customers without a C1 indicator before the time period were not included in the
analysis. This definition made possible to focus on active customers and detect the churners
from these customers. The major focus of this case is to find strong churn predictors in order to
identify the characters that can lead to customer defection and thus develop customer
retention tools.
59
METHODOLOGY:
Fig 12.1
Quantity of churn
• the first important step in working towards this project was to measure the quantity of churn present at Reliance.
• done using basic data mapping and filteration.
preliminarydiagnostics
• interview customers
• secondary research
• customer care data
synthesis of challenges and
root cause
• interpretation of findings
• identify key priority areas
identification of churn
predictors
• identification of churn predictors
• devising customer retention tools
action plan
• strategies to reduce churn
• implementation of solutions
60
CHURN TREND ANALYSIS:
As mentioned above the quantity of churn at Reliance was calculated by analyzing the data
from the month of October 2009 to the month of February 2010. Month on month data was
filtered for all those customers whose minutes of usage had dropped down to zero in a
particular month. For instance all those customers who had a certain time of usage in October
but 0 usage in November were suppose to contribute to the churn percentage in November.
Similarly all those customers who had certain usage in November and no usage in December
constituted the customer churn in December, so on and so forth.
The rate of churn on a monthly basis was calculated. It was found that for the past four months
the average churn percentage was 14.5%.
Fig 13.1
61
Month Churn percentage
November 14%
December 14%
January 15%
February 15%
Table 4.1
COMPETITIVE SCENARIO:
The industrial average churn is assumed to be 17%, thus compared to the industrial average,
Reliance communications has a lower churn rate. Following are the figures of churn percentage
of competitors:
Airtel = 6.5%
Idea = 9.4%
Vodafone = 23%
It can be seen that compared to most of the competitors, Reliance has a higher prepaid churn.
The project thus will help in finding out various churn predictors by profiling the customers in
various categories depending on behavior patterns and thus devising measures to reduce this
churn percentage.
62
REASONS FOR CHURN:
Secondary Research:
Exhaustive secondary research was conducted in order to frame probable reasons for
churn. The industry considers the following reasons to be the most common reasons for
customer attrition in telecom circles.
Fig 14.1
Out of the above mentioned reasons certain reasons were shortlisted based on the customer
profile at Reliance Communication. Based on the target segments and user demographics, the
following reasons were suggested to be the most probable reasons of customer defection of
Reliance GSM prepaid.
63
Fig 15.1
Primary Research:
During the primary research, a sample of 1000 customers was taken. These were the
customers that had churned during the month of February and were interviewed to
provide insights into the actual reasons for churn.
Following were the responses of the survey. The customers were contacted through the
alternate contact numbers available in the database by the Customer Application forms
or CAFs.
• by retailers in order to earn extra marginFake activations
•poor connectivity
•loss of signals
•call drops
Network Operations
•no information about newer products
•no vas promotions
•time of activation
Sales and promotion
• customer interaction
• customer servicepost sales support
• moving out of town for work etc.Geographic displacement
64
FINDINGS:
Fig 16.1
Total MDNs 1014
No contact available 600
Not connected 327
Connected 87
Responses:
Never used that no. 32 37%
Poor network 25 29%
No particular reason 10 11%
Use it for STD 12 14%
Others 8 9%
never used that no.
37%
poor network29%
no particular reason11%
use it for STD 14%
others9%
65
During the research following were the main observations that helped build insights into the
customer satisfaction levels and reasons for high attrition:
Of the 1000 customers of the sample, only 40% customers had alternate contact details.
This pointed towards poor database management by the sales force.
Out of the contacted people, 37% responded that they never used any such Reliance
GSM service.
29% of the interviewed customers cited that they stopped using the service due to poor
network and call drops due to the same.
Almost 14% of the customers said that they used the number only at times for STD calls
as Reliance provides cheapest call rates for STD calls in the industry.
PROFILE OF CUSTOMERS AND CHURN PREDICTION:
There are certain input variables required to design a churn prediction model. In this case the input
variables are the categories on the basis of which customers are profiled.
The mobile phone user market has been segmented on the following parameters: -
1. Network connectivity
2. Value for Money (Call rates and full talk time)
3. Value Added Services (caller tunes, Games etc. and the charges for these value added
services)
66
For a pre-paid customer, customer service is not of utmost importance as very rarely he
uses this service, customer care service is more used in the post-paid segment.
Though most post paid card users are not sensitive towards price and consider network
connectivity and customer services as important. Profiling churns can reveal customer
segments and the reasons why customers are leaving your service.
Customer information, when all combined, can be very large. It may consist of dozens of
fields. Analyzing data with many variables with conventional tools is a challenge. The data
being produced in this report has been analyzed using MSAccess.
The customers are profiled on the following parameters:
Fig 17.1
Age on network
•the period of time for which the customer used the services
Minutes of usage
•the sum of total outgoing and total incoming minutes of calls.
Cumulative recharge
•the sum of MRP of recharges done on a particular MDN in each month.
Quality of service
•number of calls made to customer care center befor churning.
customer
67
DATA ANALYSIS:
Most of the data analysis was done using the database MS Access. Data mapping, data
extraction, data mining, all such activities were undertaken by running queries on Access.
On the basis of above mentioned categories, data was extracted from the database and the
churned customers were subjected to the following analysis:
1) AGE ON NETWORK:
From the data available for last five months, all those MDNs who left the network month on
month were extracted.
Once these MDNs were available, they were mapped against their OTAF dates in order to find
out the average AON of the churned customers.
Following were the findings from that analysis:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1
YEAR
NOV 13% 14% 13% 13% 9% 11% 5% 10% 11% ― ― ―
DEC 10% 18% 7% 11% 11% 8% 10% 5% 9% 10% ― ―
JAN 16% 15% 13% 6% 9% 9% 6% 8% 4% 7% 8% ―
FEB 11% 17% 10% 12% 5% 7% 7% 6% 7% 3% 6% 7%
Average 12% 16% 11% 11% 8% 9% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7%
Maximum churn rate is seen during the initial four months of
joining the network.
Table 5.1
68
2) MOU ANALYSIS:
Every month the customers who churned, were categorized on the basis of their minutes of usage in
the previous month i.e. the month before which they churned.
Following were the results of this analysis:
MOU Oct nov dec jan
≤ 50 49% 49% 50% 51%
50-100 16% 13% 14% 15%
100-150 9% 8% 10% 10%
150-200 6% 6% 5% 5%
200-300 7% 8% 6% 6%
> 300 14% 17% 13% 13%
Table 5.2
69
It was seen that 50% of the customers who churned, used less than or equal to 50 minutes of
talk time.
3) MOU VS RECHARGE ANALYSIS MATRIX:
Recharge/ mou
≤50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-300 >300 Grand Total
0-10 35% 6% 3% 1% 0.5% 1% 46%
10-25 5% 1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 6%
25-50 4% 3% 1% 1% 0.4% 0.4% 10%
50-100 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 14%
100-150 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 9%
150-200 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1% 2% 5%
200-300 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1% 3% 4%
>300 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 5% 5%
Grand Total 51% 15% 10% 5% 6% 13% 100%
Table 5.3
It was observed that almost 30% of the customers who had churned used less than or equal to
50 minutes and got a recharge between Rs. 0-10. This trend was observed consistently for the
four months for which the customer attrition was analyzed.
70
Further, the total base was also segmented on the basis of above mentioned categories:
Segmentation of total base:
1-50 50 - 100 100 - 150
150 - 200
200 - 300
> 300 GRAND TOTAL
0 - 10 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 11%
25-50 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
25 - 50 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6%
50 - 100 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 11%
100 - 150 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 7%
150 - 200 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 6%
200 - 300 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 7%
> 300 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 50%
GRAND TOTAL 12% 7% 6% 5% 7% 24% 100%
Table 5.4
Once the total subscriber base was categorized, the categories of the churned customers were
expressed as a percentage of these slabs.
71
Percentage of customers churned in various categories w.r.t total base:
1 - 50 50 - 100 100 -
150
150 -
200
200 -
300
> 300
0 - 10 49% 30% 30% 15% 13% 11%
10 - 25 32% 20% 15% 14% 10% 10%
25 - 50 24% 19% 14% 11% 9% 9%
50 - 100 20% 15% 16% 10% 7% 6%
100 - 150 37% 15% 10% 9% 8% 6%
150 - 200 14% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5%
200 - 300 17% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5%
> 300 18% 13% 11% 9% 8% 4%
Table 5.5
When compared to the total base, it was observed that of all the customers (from total base)
who lie in the slab of “MOU ≤ 50 and top up = 0-10”, 50% of them churn in the next month.
72
WEEKLY MOU ANALYSIS:
For all those customers who churned in February, the weekly MOU in the month of January was
analyzed. It was observed that for all the customers, whose MOU in the third week in a
particular month, had decreased by more than 45% over the second week formed one-fourth
of the customers who churned in the next month.
Total customers churned in Feb. = 191742
Customers whose MOU had decreased by more than 45% in the third week of Jan= 410784
Customers whose MOU had decreased by more than 45% in the third week of Jan and who
churned in Feb. = 50971
Thus, of the customers who churned 26% exhibited this trend.
73
4) Quality of service:
To realize the satisfaction levels of the customers with the services provided by GSM
prepaid it was necessary to have an insight into customer perception. For this, the
customer call data to the customer care center was analyzed.
The customers who had churned in a particular month were mapped against the SR data
in order to find out the number of calls made by a churned customer to the customer
care center prior to churning. It was seen that only 0.5% of the customers who churned
made calls to customer care center while others didn’t. This suggested that most of the
prepaid churn takes place without any prior notification to the service provider.
74
RESULTS:
Maximum churn rate is seen during the initial four months of joining the network.
30% of the customers who had churned used less than or equal to 50 minutes and got a
recharge between Rs. 0-10.
Customer churned without prior notice.
When compared to the total base, it was observed that of all the customers (from total
base) who lie in the slab of “MOU ≤ 50 and top up = 0-10”, 50% of them churn in the
next month.
Customers, whose MOU in the third week of a particular month had decreased by more
than 45% over the second week formed one-fourth of the customers who churned in
the next month.
75
RETENTION MARKETING - A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO REDUCE CHURN:
At Reliance Communications we developed a systematic approach to identify the root causes of
customer churn, and created an integrated program of activities to address them. This enabled
the organization to launch a program for much more dramatic improvements over regular UnR
activities.
At the product level, a customer retention tool was developed in order to provide more value
to customers and entice them to stay on network for a longer period of time.
Though it is a short term strategy the results show that such activities if continued and also
improved over time, could prove to be highly beneficial for the organization.
DEVLOPING A CUSTOMER RETENTION TOOL:
It was proposed that a product must be devised, keeping this subset of customers in
mind who are prone to churning. This product must provide some extra benefit to the
customers at a low price point so that the customers who don’t intend to stay on the
network for too long are somehow convinced of the benefits and end up beginning
regular usage.
The product so developed was priced at Rs. 30/-. It provided a core talk time of Rs. 25
and additionally 25 minutes of STD calling.
This promo pack was sold only to those customers who had a higher probability of
churning.
76
TESTING THE PRODUCT ON A SAMPLE BASE:
In the month of March, this promotional scheme was implemented. Rather than
extending the offer to all the customers with a high probability of churning, it was
suggested that first the effectiveness of such a scheme must be tested on a weekly
basis.
Week on week a list of customers was generated whose MOU were consistently zero
for three consecutive days. Such customers were offered to recharge with the prom
pack within the coming week to avail the extra benefit of free STD minutes. These free
STD minutes were offered to these customers because it was observed that nost of the
customers who churned used their mobiles majorly for STD calling.
77
RESULTS OF THE PROMTIONAL SCHEME:
8-14
march
15-21
march
22-28
march
APRIL
avg.
Recharge
Total Rev
uptake percentage 6.5% 4.7% 5.7%
regular usage
after uptake 87% 88% 92% 31.3
583,436
no usage after
uptake 13% 12% 8% 6.7
15,889
no uptake 93.5% 95.3% 94%
regular usage
after no uptake 57% 56% 61% 26.7
5,346,339
no usage 43% 42% 39% 1.4
204,885
TABLE 6.1
78
The promotional scheme was offered to customer base of almost 1.25lakh customers
every week in the month of March.
The uptake percentage was found to be quite high at almost 6%.
Almost 90% of the customers, who took the promotional offer, became regular users in
the next month as opposed to only 60% in case of those who did not take the offer.
Average recharge in the month of April, by the customers who took the offer and
became regular users was Rs.31.3.
This amount was almost 17% higher than those who did not recharge with the promo
pack.
The total revenue generated by this promo pack thus was approximately Rs. 6, 00,000/-.
From the above mentioned results it was clear that this promo pack was quite successful in
winning back the customers. After reviewing the root causes of the churn problem, assessing
priorities, and looking at an integrated set of drivers, we developed a comprehensive program
and bottom-line targets:
Developed near-term tactical solutions to reduce overall churn by approximately 6%.
Proposed more strategic solutions to further reduce overall churn.
79
THE ROAD AHEAD:
It is an exercise in futility to invest in acquiring a new customer only to lose him
before even a part of the investment can be recovered. Though retaining a
customer might require seven times more effort than acquiring one it definitely
makes more economic sense.
Even from a long term perspective maintaining a good relationship with not just
profitable customers but all prospective customers will pay huge dividends. Only
a churn management system can provide a better understanding of the
customer, the operators’ most valuable asset.
It is important to deliver value to the customer and put in place offers that tie in
the customer. New products and services development is essential to ensure
loyalty.
A churn management solution can help devise more attractive incentives, tariff
bundles, loyalty schemes and proactive customer service along with acquisition
strategies to attract the right type of customer, thus reducing fraud and bad
debt—all key to a better bottom line.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
As the wireless industry evolves, and use of wireless Internet services expands, customer churn
is expected to increase, which will lead to further destruction of shareholder value. Wireless
operators recognize the problem is growing but most have failed, so far, to effectively manage
it. Although many companies have there Postpaid churn management system in place the task
ahead is to analyze and counter customer churn in the Prepaid segment.
Without having to make major new investments in support systems, this approach helps to
maintain the base of key customers, increase customer acquisition effectiveness, and reduce
bad debt. In the end, this will provide a fundamental improvement in customer retention —
with real and long-lasting benefits to the bottom line.
80
REFERENCES:
[1] Ahola J., RintaRunsala E., Data mining case studies in customer profiling.
Research report TTE1200129, VTT Information Technology (2001).
[2] Au W., Chan C.C., Yao X.: A Novel evolutionary data mining algorithm with applications to
churn prediction. IEEE Transactions on evolutionary computation, Vol. 7, No. 6, Dec 2003.
[3] Bauer H., Hammerschmidt M., Braechler M.:The customer lifetime value concept and its
contribution to corporate valuation.Yearbook of Marketing and Consumer Research, vol. 1
(2003).
[4] Buckinx W., Van den Poel D.: Customer base analysis: partial detection of behaviorally loyal
clients in a noncontractual FMCG retail setting. European Journal of Operational Research 164
(2005) 252268
[5] Buckinx W., Verstraeten G., Van den Poel D.: Predicting customer loyalty using the internal
transactional database. Expert Systems with Applications xxx (2005)
[6] Candy J., Temes G.: Oversampling deltasigma data converters: theory, design, and
simulation. IEEEPC02741. New York (1992)
[7] The Radicati Group, Sun Java Communications Suite Total Cost of Ownership, 2005,
available at www.sun.com/software/products/communications/communications_tco_study
/wp_sun_java_ comm_suite_tco2005.pdf
[8] Rider Research. (2008). Mobile Media 2008: The Third Screen for Entertainment,
Buckingham: Rider Research.
[9] Palmer, M and Taylor, P. (2008). “Google homes in on revenues from phones” Financial
Mail 13 February 2008 [Online]. Available at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/667f13de-da60-11dc-
9bb9-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 (Accessed: 14 Feb 2008).
[10] Syniverse Technology. (2004). A Global Perspective on Number Portability. US: Syniverse
Technology.
[11] McLeod, D. (2007). “Breakthrough nears” Financial Mail, 8 June 2007 [Online]
http://free.financialmail.co.za/ (Accessed: 8 June 2007).
[12] Middle East Africa Wireless Analyst (2007). MTN ponders hefty charges for VoIP users.
MAEWA Volume 5 Issue 6, 21 March 2007.
[13] Mobile Messaging Analyst. (2007a). U.S. avoids Europe’s MMS errors. Mobile Messaging
Analyst, November 2007.
81
[14] Mobile Messaging Analyst. (2007b). Mobile e-mail the messaging application to watch in
2008. Mobile Messaging Analyst, November 2007.
[15] MobileYouth. (2008). mobileYouth® 2008 report (2) – marketing & advertising, Vodacom
Intranet [Online]. Available at:
http://vodactls1/wizcat/Search_2006_New_look/adv_search_response.asp (Accessed: 25 Sep
2008).
[16] Mozer M. C., Wolniewicz R., Grimes D.B., Johnson E., Kaushansky H. Predicting
Subscriber Dissatisfaction and Improving Retention in the Wireless Telecommunication
Industry. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, Special issue on Data Mining and Knowledge
Representation (2000).
[17] Pindyck R., Rubinfeld D. Econometric models and econometric forecasts.
Irwin/McGrawHill (1998). ISBN 0071188312
[18] Vecchiatto (c), P. (2008). “Telcos battle for corporate pie”. ITWeb, 4 August 2008 [Online]
Available at:
http://www.itweb.co.za/sections/telecoms/2008/0808041048.asp?O=FPTOP&S=Business&A=B
US (Accessed: 13 Sep 2008).
[19] Webb, W. (2007). Wireless Communications: The future. San Francisco: John Wiley & Son,
Ltd.
82
83
A-1
SMS REMINDERS:
59 Apke night pack ki validity samapt hone wali hai.Raat mein unlimited FREE Reliance
network par calls karne ke liye jaldi Rs59 se rechrg karein.Reliance
151
29 Apke night pack ki validity samapt hone wali hai.Raat mein unlimited FREE Reliance
network par local calls ke liye jaldi Rs29 se rechrg karein.Reliance
151
77 Apke tariff pack ki validity samapt hone wali hai.Sabhi reliance calls sirf 20p/m mein
pane ke liye jaldi Rs77 se rechrg karein.Reliance
136
27 Apke tariff pack ki validity samapt hone wali hai.Sabhi local reliance calls sirf 20p/m
mein pane ke liye jaldi Rs27 se rechrg karein.Reliance
142
84
A-2
TELECALLING SCRIPT:
Bright Night pack 59/-
Namaskar sir,
Main reliance mobile ki taraf se <name> bol raha/rahi hoon. Main apke kewal 2 minute lena chahunga.
Sir darasal apne pichle mahine night pack recharge karwaya tha, jismey apko sabhi reliance calls ratri ke
11 baje se subah 6 baje tak BILKUL MUFT mil rahi thi. Yahi nahi, doorsi sabhi mobile calls KEWAL AADHI
DARON par uplabdh thi. Is pack ke keemat matr 59 rupay ki thi.
Sir iski validity 30 din ki thi aur ab yeh expire ho chuka hai.
En suvidhao ka labh uthate rehne ke liye 59/- ka recharge jald se jald karwayein. Yeh ek seemit avdhi
offer hai.
Sir janna chahunga ki kya aap AAJ yeh recharge kara lenge?
Reliance mein baat karney ke liye apka dhanyawaad, apka din mangalmay ho.
Onnet Pack 77/-
Namaskar sir,
Main reliance mobile ki taraf se <name> bol raha/rahi hoon. Main apke kewal 2 minute lena chahunga.
Sir darasal apne pichle mahine 77/- ka ek recharge karwaya tha, jismey apko sabhi local aur STD reliance
to reliance calls KEWAL 20P PRATI MINUTE mein mil rahi thi.
Sir iski validity 30 din ki thi aur ab yeh expire ho chuka hai.
En suvidhao ka labh uthate rehne ke liye 77/- ka recharge jald se jald karwayein. Yeh ek seemit avdhi
offer hai.
Sir janna chahunga ki kya aap AAJ yeh recharge kara lenge?
Reliance mein baat karney ke liye apka dhanyawaad, apka din mangalmay ho.
85
A-3
IVR SCRIPT:
59
Namaskar, yeh call apko jankari dene ke liye hai ki apke night calling pack ki validity AaJ samapt ho rahi hai. UNLIMITED FREE local aur STD calls reliance network par kartey rehne ke liye turant 59 rupay se recharge karein. Free calls raat 11 baje se subah 6 baje tak manya hongi. Isi ke saath anya sabhi calls keval AADHI daron par uplabdh hongi. Toh phir der kis baat ki, aaj hi 59 rupay se recharge karein aur is offer ka laabh uthate rahein. Dhanyavad.
2 29
Namaskar, yeh call apko jankari dene ke liye hai ki apke night calling pack ki validity AaJ samapt ho rahi hai. UNLIMITED FREE local reliance to reliance calls kartey rehne ke liye turant 29 rupay se recharge karein. Free calls raat 11 baje se subah 6 baje tak manya hongi. Toh phir der kis baat ki, aj hi 29 rupay se recharge karein aur is offer ka laabh uthate rahein. Dhanyavad.
27
Namaskar, yeh call apko jankari dene ke liye hai ki apke local pack ki validity aaj samapt ho rahi hai. Sabhi local reliance to reliance calls KEVAL 20p prati minute mein kartey rehne ke liye turant 27 rupay se recharge karein.Dhanyavad.
77
Namaskar, yeh call apko jankari dene ke liye hai ki apke tariff pack ki validity aaj samapt ho rahi hai. SABHI STD aur local reliance to reliance calls KEVAL 20p prati minute mein kartey rehne ke liye turant 77 rupay se recharge karein. Dhanyavad.
86
A-4
A SPECIMEN OF MIS REPORT:
Status
Executive Calling 1
Total Data 39
Called 39
Answered 15
% Answered 38%
Unanswered 24
No Answer 24
Status
Executive Calling 6
Total Data 182
Called 182
Answered 61
% Answered 34%
Unanswered 121
No Answer 121
87
A-5
RECORD OF DAILY TRACK OF STV RECHARGE
12/3/2010
MRP Total Rech % Rech
SMS BASE 27 2210 953 43%
SMS BASE 29 3656 1526 42%
SMS BASE 59 10837 5143 47%
SMS BASE 77 9243 4090 44%
Total 25946 11712 45%
Sample 27 138 57 41%
Sample 29 222 78 35%
Sample 59 663 310 47%
Sample 77 574 239 42%
Total 1597 684 43%
10/3/2010
MRP Total Rech % Rech
SMS BASE 27 1875 773 41%
SMS BASE 29 3108 1242 40%
SMS BASE 59 8979 4086 46%
SMS BASE 77 7925 3430 43%
Total 21887 9531 44%
Sample 27 119 48 40%
Sample 29 196 66 34%
Sample 59 571 262 46%
Sample 77 511 206 40%
Total 1397 582 42%
88
9/3/2010
MRP Total Rech % Rech
SMS BASE 27 1712 680 40%
SMS BASE 29 2874 1088 38%
SMS BASE 59 8230 3569 43%
SMS BASE 77 7316 3046 42%
Total 20132 8383 42%
Sample 27 110 46 42%
Sample 29 183 62 34%
Sample 59 528 237 45%
Sample 77 476 184 39%
Total 1297 529 41%
8/3/2010 MRP Total Rech % Rech
SMS BASE 27 1506 611 41%
SMS BASE 29 2510 972 39%
SMS BASE 59 7020 2945 42%
SMS BASE 77 6246 2492 40%
Total 17282 7020 41%
Sample 27 94 33 35%
Sample 29 154 54 35%
Sample 59 443 182 41%
Sample 77 409 154 38%
Total 1100 423 38%
89
A-6
RAW DATA FOR CHURN ANALYSIS:
MDN_NO mou_nov mou slab
rech_nov rech slab
8010001XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010001XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010001XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010008XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010008XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010011XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010013XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010013XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010015XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010017XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010017XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010023XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010025XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010027XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010027XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010038XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010043XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010046XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010049XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010049XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010057XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010060XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010064XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010069XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010071XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010071XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010074XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010077XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010077XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010077XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010079XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010082XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010082XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010082XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010082XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
90
8010082XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010082XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010082XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010083XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010083XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010087XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010088XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010090XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010092XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010094XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010094XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010104XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010105XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010108XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010112XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010116XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010120XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010120XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010121XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010134XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010134XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010135XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010135XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010138XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010140XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010146XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010146XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010149XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010151XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010153XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010155XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010155XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010160XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010162XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010163XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010166XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010168XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010171XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010172XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010172XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010172XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010176XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
91
8010183XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010183XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010190XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010192XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010199XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010201XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010201XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010203XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010208XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010211XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010213XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010214XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010215XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010218XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010237XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010242XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010256XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010257XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010263XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010266XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010270XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010273XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010275XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010278XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010280XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010285XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010289XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010292XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010301XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010302XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010307XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010309XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010317XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010318XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010327XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010332XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010335XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010336XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010338XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010338XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010341XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010342XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
92
8010343XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010343XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010343XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010346XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010350XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010353XYZ 0.1 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015729XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9015857XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9555541XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9555800XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 10 0-10
8010210XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015184XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015545XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015804XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555294XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555411XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555421XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555437XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555514XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555628XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555790XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555828XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555831XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555863XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555926XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015088XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 30 26-50
9015147XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 30 26-50
9015755XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 30 26-50
9015801XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 30 26-50
9015988XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 30 26-50
9555606XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 30 26-50
9015973XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 40 26-50
9555880XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 40 26-50
9015354XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 42 26-50
8010330XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 50 26-50
8010538XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 50 26-50
9015777XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 50 26-50
9015946XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 50 26-50
9555123XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 50 26-50
9555939XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 50 26-50
9555851XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 58 51-100
93
9555898XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 60 51-100
8010029XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 61 51-100
9015900XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 70 51-100
9555969XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 91 51-100
9015898XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 93 51-100
8010239XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 121 100-150
9015818XYZ 17.7 ≤ 50 150 100-150
8010048XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010075XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010103XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010154XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010174XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010176XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010205XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010328XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015068XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015250XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015285XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015311XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015315XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015354XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015433XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015435XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015442XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015455XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015488XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015552XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015736XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015771XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015782XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015842XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015906XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015953XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9015971XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555025XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555031XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555062XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555068XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555076XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555135XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555152XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555178XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
94
9555212XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555256XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555261XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555297XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555382XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555454XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555526XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555669XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555717XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555738XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555739XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555764XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555776XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555938XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
9555974XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 0 0-10
8010164XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9015282XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9015409XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9015823XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9555093XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9555337XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9555783XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9555870XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9555985XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 10 0-10
9015071XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015260XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015332XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015576XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015591XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015614XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015726XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015885XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015940XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9015980XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555034XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555404XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555563XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555563XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555699XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555815XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555965XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
9555986XYZ 17.8 ≤ 50 20 11-25
95
A-7
MOU TREND ANALYSIS DATA
feb_mou jan_mou % change
645.85 1010.86 -36%
1693.27 2742.34 -38%
66.25 97.27 -32%
86.92 133.32 -35%
99.75 145.63 -32%
475.73 751.17 -37%
1474.46 2318.61 -36%
214.14 335.03 -36%
925.58 1325.59 -30%
1679.88 2492.32 -33%
2431.36 3741.58 -35%
883.08 1270.83 -31%
1025.26 1577.34 -35%
99.76 159.86 -38%
30.43 44.58 -32%
476.39 703.04 -32%
338.12 496.74 -32%
120 189.56 -37%
414.03 675.8 -39%
1983.4 2925.95 -32%
112.02 170.67 -34%
79.22 118.27 -33%
276.01 416.41 -34%
254.49 376.47 -32%
68.76 110.2 -38%
300.03 473.57 -37%
393.79 636.1 -38%
515.7 757.33 -32%
351.8 529.3 -34%
231.07 336.61 -31%
79.32 124.21 -36%
386.19 622.2 -38%
80.33 116.85 -31%
76.36 124.29 -39%
438.33 684.87 -36%
405.68 636.73 -36%
35.19 53.8 -35%
96
180.87 267.81 -32%
655.89 971.17 -32%
361.45 578.14 -37%
16.95 25.34 -33%
73.66 108.05 -32%
0.42 0.6 -30%
1197.89 1712.06 -30%
194.52 278.28 -30%
141.6 208.78 -32%
52.29 83.9 -38%
601.01 926.87 -35%
360.95 534.07 -32%
245.05 382.84 -36%
534.19 787.96 -32%
477.71 702.35 -32%
5.92 9.3 -36%
226.93 339.59 -33%
358.2 519.89 -31%
19.98 30.26 -34%
596.94 871.45 -32%
89.26 138.11 -35%
75.67 111.29 -32%
209.5 336.72 -38%
173.08 250.32 -31%
66.01 96.38 -32%
82.03 130.09 -37%
218.79 326.04 -33%
163.83 263.19 -38%
468.01 690.65 -32%
575.62 833.49 -31%
594.48 879.86 -32%
225.99 340.47 -34%
191.95 298.72 -36%
57.54 84.65 -32%
464.46 761.18 -39%
174.4 254.29 -31%
171.81 265.86 -35%
210.31 343.54 -39%
827.38 1260.75 -34%
370.4 544.58 -32%
99.69 158.23 -37%
90.9 142.39 -36%
97
238.99 347.86 -31%
215.31 316.02 -32%
203.46 315.88 -36%
117.54 173.93 -32%
774.94 1128.04 -31%
509.71 794.43 -36%
475.84 722.23 -34%
414.64 675.07 -39%
118.91 184.16 -35%
3.98 5.99 -34%
295.13 444.39 -34%
235.26 350.53 -33%
304.57 445.24 -32%
319.91 505.38 -37%
224.58 367.94 -39%
535.18 770.72 -31%
285 419.87 -32%
0.3 0.48 -38%
1201.86 1918.28 -37%
28.45 41.58 -32%
205.06 327.21 -37%
102.04 153.47 -34%
407.73 648.43 -37%
49.95 73.74 -32%
102.53 163.91 -37%
160.49 243.23 -34%
104.95 150.2 -30%
18.08 27.23 -34%
20.08 31 -35%
165.52 247.56 -33%
214.39 323.88 -34%
664.28 1008.94 -34%
214.89 329.63 -35%
542.59 797.67 -32%
0.97 1.55 -37%
287.18 451.91 -36%
1.12 1.73 -35%
175.15 268.71 -35%
74.35 115.69 -36%
60.14 94.23 -36%
213.87 326.39 -34%
3.41 5.4 -37%
98
25.74 38.56 -33%
58.35 91.74 -36%
279.39 430.34 -35%
259.49 403.48 -36%
34.45 49.63 -31%
337.25 491.27 -31%
375.97 603.3 -38%
33.45 54.79 -39%
390.94 581.24 -33%
877.05 1410.73 -38%
178.37 258.75 -31%
1701.12 2719.55 -37%
289.92 438.28 -34%
423.16 628.02 -33%
148.86 241.79 -38%
9.4 14.5 -35%
870.03 1317.71 -34%
568.75 923.06 -38%
157.74 257.4 -39%
343.57 542.58 -37%
71.85 106.3 -32%
585.14 920.67 -36%
115.71 170.49 -32%
2.33 3.47 -33%
228.21 345.66 -34%
93.07 144.73 -36%
66.35 98.17 -32%
162 262.08 -38%
83.45 120.38 -31%
78.58 116.14 -32%
504.61 805.97 -37%
340.07 520.16 -35%
654.81 1010.65 -35%
117.48 186.55 -37%
93.04 145.05 -36%
77.87 124.51 -37%
695.77 1059.13 -34%
145.56 220.68 -34%
40.5 58.71 -31%
3.37 5.47 -38%
170.05 255.74 -34%
3014.13 4467.84 -33%
99
154.04 226.67 -32%
1.26 1.8 -30%
89.39 128.65 -31%
987.6 1574.27 -37%
167.69 261.95 -36%
369.06 544.63 -32%
11.4 16.41 -31%
282.6 411.24 -31%
12.18 19.75 -38%
86.89 126.2 -31%
569.9 828.67 -31%
116.3 179.88 -35%
189.2 282.87 -33%
700.23 1125.63 -38%
85.94 132.41 -35%
69 113.05 -39%
774.15 1156.57 -33%
169.67 275.98 -39%
54.13 85.73 -37%
1373.15 2071.13 -34%
84.12 132.18 -36%
134.76 209.59 -36%
1115.37 1612.73 -31%
365.7 577.67 -37%
359.9 583.44 -38%
722.9 1117.97 -35%
208.02 303.39 -31%
586.64 931.7 -37%
139 203.54 -32%
201.47 289.73 -30%
511.57 768.24 -33%
409.7 592.66 -31%
239.22 379.52 -37%
261.67 411.54 -36%
1148.54 1851.02 -38%
213.66 343.96 -38%
92.98 151.16 -38%
735.99 1063.26 -31%
84 121.69 -31%
0.42 0.66 -36%
389.99 605.51 -36%
146.38 233.33 -37%
100
A-8 PRIMARY RESEARCH DATA SAMPLE: Alt No response
8010001XYZ
8010001XYZ
8010001XYZ
9871776XYZ nc
9015808XYZ nc
8010001XYZ
8010001XYZ
9312876XYZ nc
9991183XYZ nc
8010002XYZ
9015597XYZ confused
9871060XYZ nc
8010591XYZ nc
8001101XYZ nc
8010003XYZ
8001101XYZ nc
8010003XYZ
8010004XYZ
9955903XYZ nc
9311111XYZ nc
8010004XYZ
9010268XYZ nc
9891063XYZ
9555613XYZ nr
8010028XYZ nc
8010006XYZ
8010006XYZ
9811560XYZ nc
8010008XYZ
8010008XYZ
9313962XYZ nc
9971643XYZ nr
9560488XYZ nc
8001101XYZ nc
8001101XYZ nc
8010009XYZ
9990999XYZ nc
9312851XYZ never used that no.
8010009XYZ
9716802XYZ nc
8010010XYZ
8001101XYZ nc
8010001XYZ
9717877XYZ nr
101
8010010XYZ
8010010XYZ
8010010XYZ
8010011XYZ
8010011XYZ
9818040XYZ Nr
8010012XYZ
8010012XYZ
8010012XYZ
9899179XYZ Nc
8001101XYZ
9718342XYZ never used that no.
8010012XYZ
8010012XYZ
8010013XYZ
9910184XYZ Nr
8010013XYZ
9312213XYZ Nc
8010015XYZ
9983274XYZ Nc
9818964XYZ Nc
9717263XYZ Nc
8010016XYZ
8010016XYZ
8001101XYZ
8010016XYZ
8001101XYZ
8010514XYZ
8010016XYZ
9868324XYZ never used that no.
9811292XYZ moved to other city
8010016XYZ
8001101XYZ
9818680XYZ
9716271XYZ
8010455XYZ
9811292XYZ
8010017XYZ
8001101XYZ
8010017XYZ
9717349XYZ
8010017XYZ
8010016XYZ
9015189XYZ
9811590XYZ
9211369XYZ
9899426XYZ Nc
102
9899323XYZ never used that no.
8010017XYZ
8010017XYZ
9555557XYZ Nc
8010017XYZ
8010017XYZ
9711863XYZ nc
9958156XYZ nc
9289151XYZ nc
9654633XYZ nc
9015752XYZ nc
9015243XYZ nc
8010017XYZ nc
9015268XYZ nc
8010494XYZ nc
9015189XYZ nc
8010018XYZ
9650588XYZ nc
9313154XYZ poor network
9278330XYZ nc
9313154XYZ poor network
9811914XYZ nc
9555557XYZ nc
9873315XYZ nc
9278676XYZ never used that no.
9555557XYZ nc
8010018XYZ
9211622XYZ never used that no.
9313154XYZ poor network
9555557XYZ nc
9650841XYZ nc
9811529XYZ nc
8010018XYZ
9711767XYZ
8010018asd
9555557asd nc
9289151asd nc
9899144asd nc
9555557asd nc
9711527asd nc
103
REMARKS
104
REMARKS