Silver Yearbook 2019 New York, NY 23 April 2019
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Silver Yearbook 2019
New York, NY
23 April 2019
Sponsors and Partners
Sponsors
Endeavour Silver Corp.
The Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries
Kitco Metals Inc.
Metallic Minerals Corp.
Monex Precious Metals
Sabin Metal Group of Companies
Silvercorp Metals Inc.
China Partner
Shanghai Huatong
Silver Exchange
2
Silver Prices
3
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
$ / Oz
Silver Prices: 1 January 2010 to 22 April 2019
Global Economic Outlook
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020p 2025p
World
Emerging and Developing Economies
Advanced Economies
Real Gross Domestic Product
Annual, Projected Through 2027
Percent Change Percent Change
Silver Bullion Inventories
5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Implied Unreported Stocks
Government
Dealer
Exchange
ETPs
Mln Oz
Silver Bullion Inventories
Year-end Data, through 2018
London Silver OTC Trading Volumes
6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
19-Nov-18 24-Dec-18 28-Jan-19 4-Mar-19 8-Apr-19
Total of All Transactions
Spot's Percent of Total
London Silver OTC Trading Volumes
Billion Ounces Percent
Investment Demand
7
Silver Investment Demand
8
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Million Ounces$/Ounce
Nominal Price (LHS)
Net Changes in Inventories
Net Additions
Net Withdrawals
Silver Market Balance
Annual, Projected Through 2019. Prices through 2018.
Coins Continued To Dominate Silver Investment Demand
9
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other
ETPs
Coins
Net Investment Demand
Estimated Investment Demand by Major Investment Vehicle
Mln Oz Mln Oz
Silver ETF Holding On
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
SLV
CEF
ZKB
Monthly Silver ETP Holdings
Mln Oz
March 2019
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Annual Changes to Silver ETP Holdings
Mln OzMln Oz
March 2019
Institutional Investors On Comex Turn Net Short
11
-750
-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
-750
-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
A-95 J-97 O-99 J-02 A-04 J-06 O-08 J-11 A-13 J-15 O-17
Long
Short
Net Fund Position in Comex
Mln Ozs
Non-Commercial Gross Long and Short Silver Positions
Comex Futures & Options. Weekly Data, Through 26 March 2019
Mln Ozs
Silver Prices Have A Lot To Catch Up
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16
Monthly Gold/Silver Price Ratio
Ratio Ratio
March 2019
Fabrication Demand
13
Fabrication Demand Rose For Sixth Consecutive Year
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19p
Photovoltaic
Imports into Trans Economies
Other Countries
Other Uses
Biocides
Superconductors
Electronics
Jewelry & Silverware
Photography
Million OuncesMillion Ounces
Annual Fabrication Demand
Projected Through 2019
Reaching New Records, But At A Slower Pace
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19p
Annual Silver Demand for Photovoltaic Solar Panels
Projected Through 2019
Mln OzMln Oz
Jewelry & Silverware Demand At Elevated Levels
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18p
$/Oz.
Silver Prices (RHS)
Million Oz.
Global Jewelry and Silverware Demand
Electronics Demand Continues To March Higher
17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19p
Million Ounces
Annual Total Electronics Demand
Projected Through 2019
Supply
Total Silver Supply Continues To Decline
19
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Secondary
Mine Production
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Net Exports from Tran. Econ.
Government Disposals
Projected Through 2019
Total Annual Silver Supply
New Mine Capacity In Declining Trend
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p
Million Ounces
Annual Additions to Silver Mine Capacity from Near-Term Mine Development Projects
Most Producers Reduced Costs In 2018
21
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Cash Cost per Ounce Cash Cost per Ounce
Average Silver Price in 2018: $15.71
Production Weighted 2018 Cash Cost: $5.47
Primary Silver Producers' Cash Costs in 2018
Average Silver Price in 2017: $17.09
Production Weighted 2017 Cash Cost : $5.90
2017
2018
Production-Weighted Costs Lowest Since 2009
22
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$/Ounce $/Ounce
Average Cash Cost
Annual Average Silver Price
Annual Average Primary Producers' Silver Cash Costs and Prices
Average Costs Declined Slower Than Average Prices Squeezing Margins
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$/Ounce $/Ounce
Margin Between The Price of Silver and Average Cash Operating Costs of Production
One Final Point
1990s All Over Again? Probably Not.
25
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Million Ounces$/Ounce
Nominal Price (LHS)
Net Changes in Inventories
Net Additions
Net Withdrawals
Silver Market Balance
Annual, Projected Through 2019. Prices through 2018.
Similar Trend In Investment Demand
CPM Group Precious Metals Yearbooks
Launch Dates:
2019 Platinum Group Metals Yearbook
9 July @ New York
For general inquiries, email [email protected]
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