Should Vermont's Ridges Be Developed For Wind Power?

Should Vermont’s Ridges Be Used For

Wind Power Development?

Dr. Ben Luce, Lyndon State College

[email protected]

An Extremely Serious Issue

• Immense Ramifications for the environment

and renewable energy development: Far beyond VT’s concerns

• Most wind supporters have great intentions

• We need to transcend the sound bites

• And the politics

• Conduct a real analysis of the arguments for and against

• Get to the facts

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Greenhouse gas levels are rising quickly. So is the global average temperature:

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Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining

My own Conclusions

• The impacts of ridge line are enormous

– Should be our last resort option, if done at all.

• The economics are not promising

– Existing projects are not cheap

– Electricity rates will not decrease

– Wind power costs have been increasing

– The industry may actually soon collapse

– Significant wind development here will be extremely expensive

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My own Conclusions

• The wind power resources of the Eastern US are essentially negligible

– This is not “the answer” supporters assume it is

• There are much better alternatives

• The current push for wind in Vermont is not based on a rational evaluation of facts, or a well thought out plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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What are the impacts?

Impact Summary

• Topographical Impacts

• Hydrological Impacts

• Habitat Fragmentation & Loss

• Impacts to birds and bats

• Noise Impacts

• Aesthetic Impacts: – Ecotourism

– Environmental valuing

• Impacts to the Social Fabric of our communities

• Implications for the effectiveness of and public support for renewable energy investments

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"The block provides possible habitat for wide ranging species of concern such as pine martin and Canada lynx." -Billy Coster, senior planner and policy analyst with the ANR, to Jack Kenworthy, chief executive officer of Eolian Rewewable Energy

Very large roads and platforms are

needed

• The Turbines are huge: 400+ feet high

• Weight: Hundreds of tons

• Very large trucks and industrial strength roads are needed

• Extensive bulldozing and blasting is required

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SUMMER 2011

Wind Turbine Construction Mars Hill, Maine

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Lowell Mountains Vermont

SUMMER 2011

Mars Hill, Maine

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Lowell Mountains Vermont

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Lowell Mountains Vermont

SUMMER 2011

Sheffield Vermont

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Sheffield Vermont

SUMMER 2011

Sheffield Vermont (Blasting prep)

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Brodie Mountain Massachusetts

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Mountain Environments are Hydrologically Important and Sensitive

• Act as sponge • Large Surface area • Vegetation • 3D Water table

Mountain Aquifers

http://www.sonoma.edu/users/n/norwick/document/ford/gws2.html

Hydrological Impacts

“The Lowell wind project is a high-risk site with steep elevations and very erodible soils, the Applicants have proposed the use of alternate Best Management Practices, which are essentially untested and unproven at scale this large,” stated Geoff Goll of Princeton Hydro, an expert who testified to the Vermont Public Service Board on the Lowell Project

Soil Compaction and Impermeable surfaces impede infiltration, and can cause erosion and have adverse impacts on streams

Birds

• Mountain ridges generate updrafts used by migrating raptors. (From: Bildstein 2006).

ANR to Eolian: “The land, Coster notes, is a gateway for migratory birds en route to the Nulhegan Basin.” (Orleans County Record, 5/23/12)

Bats

• Endangered species of bats do live in Vermont (Myotis Sodalis)

• Bats can be killed by merely flying close to turbines

• The Lowell Project will use turbines specifically designed for lower wind areas (lower wind speeds), which may be particularly problematic for bats

Noise and Health

• “Infrasonic” noise from wind turbines appears to be affecting the health of susceptible people in the vicinity of turbines

• Large turbines essentially “shake the air”

• This can be amplified by the resonant effect of buildings.

• Similar to health impacts on people working in buildings with improperly configured ventilation systems.

Noise and Health

• One example of related peer-reviewed research: – “Responses of the ear to low frequency

sounds, infrasound and wind turbines” – Hearing Research, Volume 268, Issues 1-2, 1

September 2010, Pages 12-21 – Alec N. Salt, a, and Timothy E. Hullara – a Department of Otolaryngology,

Washington University School of Medicine, Box 8115, 660 South Euclid Avenue, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA

• See summary at http://oto2.wustl.edu/cochlea/windmill.html

”The noise generated by wind turbines is

rather unusual, containing high levels (over 90

dB SPL) of very low frequency sound

(infrasound).” (Washington University Group)

Hear for yourself?

• A single visit to a local wind project is not a basis for evaluating noise impacts

• Noise varies greatly with: – Wind direction and weather

– The observers Location

• See: “The Problems With ''Noise Numbers'' for Wind Farm Noise Assessment”, Bob Thorne, Bulletin of Science Technology & Society 2011 31: 262.

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Setbacks?

• “It is concluded that no large-scale wind turbine should be operated within 3,500 meters [2.2 miles] of any dwelling or noise-sensitive place unless the operator of the proposed wind farm energy facility, at its own expense, mitigates any noise within the dwelling or noise-sensitive place identified as being from that proposed wind farm energy facility to a level determined subject to the final approval of the occupier of that dwelling or noise-sensitive place.”

• Source: “The Problems With ''Noise Numbers'' for Wind Farm Noise Assessment”, Bob Thorne, Bulletin of Science Technology & Society 2011 31: 262.

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Vermont Brand Study

• Commissioned by the State of Vermont Tourism Department

• Released in 2010

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“Unspoiled,

Beautiful,

Mountains”

The Economics of Wind Power

Subsidies for a Renewable Energy

Technology are fine if….

• They are helping to make the technology reasonably affordable (or better, competitive)

• They are supporting development which is truly sustainable, and important for reducing emissions.

• Otherwise, they can be counterproductive

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Wind

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E ce

nts

/kW

h

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30

20

10

0

What DOE Predicted in 2002

Cost Trends of Wind Power

Actual

Source: US Department of Energy (Second plot: 2011 Wind Energy Technology Market Report)

Wind’s bad cost trend is why…

• Wind is still deeply dependent on subsidies

• People think its cheaper than it is

• The industry is on the verge of collapse

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Summary of Wind Power Cost

• Well above $.10/kWh in the Northeast (even with subsidies)

• Ridge line wind particularly expensive: – Extensive site development – Relatively small projects – Transmission costs – Impact management

• No longer cheaper than Natural Gas fired generation. • Probably about the same as solar today when full costs

are considered • Hydro: Well under $.10/kWh

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The solar cost trend is much more

promising:

• Department of Energy’s Solar Technologies Market Report

• http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf 42

Solar power is on track to become competitive with retail power rates (which is the critical cost consideration for potential buyers) by about 2015. Continuing subsidies for solar power are therefore justified. The US should pay particular attention, though, to retaining a strong solar manufacturing base.

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Natural gas fired generation has been slowly replacing coal-fired generation, and, due to the shale bas boom, is projected to replace large amounts of coal-fired generation in the near future.

Natural Gas “Fracking”

• Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing

• Can pollute aquifiers, among various impacts.

I am not personally supportive of fracking and continued dependence on natural gas, but nonetheless the shale gas boom is negatively impacting the economic prospects of wind power strongly. Few if any utilities are now pursuing wind for economic reasons, except to meet mandatory renewable energy requirements.

Additional Transmission Costs

for Eastern Wind Power

• The Northeast Grid is already fairly congested • According to Gordon van Welie, president and

chief executive officer of ISO New England Inc: “A conservative goal for 5,500 megawatts of wind power and 3,000 megawatts of hydro power through 2030 would carry transmission costs of between $7 billion and $12 billion.” – From: “New England grid chief: Cooperate on wind

power”, by David Sharp, Associated Press Writer, August 16, 2010.

• 4000+ miles of new transmission lines

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On a resource basis alone, can wind power

make a substantial contribution to

reducing US greenhouse gas emissions?

Question:

Answer:

• In the Midwest, maybe (there are still potentially serious issues there with noise, birds, aesthetics, better alternatives, etc)

• In Vermont, maybe in the future, but a great cost

(if most of the ridges are developed) – And Vermont’s energy demand is basically miniscule

• In the Eastern US, no. Unless offshore wind turns

out to be environmentally and economically viable (which has not been demonstrated)

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State by State Wind Power Potential from the Department of Energy (source: www.windpoweringamerica.gov)

Western US

25.6

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

.

15

25

29

27

30

31

33

34

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Relative Ranking of State Wind Resources Source: www.windpoweringamerica.gov (see previous slide)

Texas

Kansas

Montana

Nebraska

South Dakota

North Dakota

Iowa

Wyoming

Oklahoma

New Mexico

New York

Maine

Pennsylvania

Vermont

New Hampshire

West Virginia

Virginia

Maryland

Massachusetts

Capacity

Ranking State 1901

952

944

918

818

770

570

552

517

492

11.3

3.3

2.9

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.0

- in peak gigawatts

Eastern US

Total for Onshore Eastern Wind Resources

• As estimated by DOE (unlisted states have little or no potential), in peak gigawatts (GW): – New York: 25.6 GW

– Maine : 11.3 GW

– Pennsylvania: 3.3 GW

– Vermont: 2.9 GW

– New Hampshire: 2.1 GW

– Virginia: 1.8 GW

– West Virginia: 1.9 GW

– Maryland: 1.5 GW

– MA: 1.0 GW

• Total: 52 GW (50% in NY)

Effective Onshore Wind Power Capacity

in the entire Eastern US

• NREL data applies to CF=.3

• NREL Estimates Eastern Peak Capacity = 52 GW

• Effective Wind Capacity: .3*52 GW = 15.6 GW

• Current average US consumption = 470 GW

• Potential average onshore Eastern wind penetration into current US load:

(15.6 GW/470 GW) x 100% = 3.3%

• Long term: Probably less than 2%

• Maximum CO2 reduction: ~ 1% 52

These NREAL estimates are likely a gross

over-estimate of onshore wind potential in

the East

Myriad local siting issues were not included here

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< 2% CO2

Reduction Potential

> 100% CO2 Reduction Potential

Renewable Alternatives to Wind?

Really only one serious one for the Eastern US as a whole: Solar Power

(This is not say that other sources, such as dairy methane digesters based generation, are not worth doing for various reasons. Just that when it comes to really serious greenhouse gas reductions for the electricity sector for the Eastern US, solar power is the only obvious renewable that we know can make a major difference).

Solar is the Renewable:

• Total Insolation: ~120,000 Trillion Watts

• Total World energy demand: 30 Trillion

Watts

• Current US Primary energy demand:

~3.3 Trillion Watts

• Solar collectors covering 1-2% of the

Sahara would provide all World electrical

demand.

Solar Energy Distribution for Montpelier,

VT

Photovoltaics Photovoltaics

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Typical Grid-Tied “Inverter”

Simple!

Energy Storage?

• Economic viability not demonstrated yet: – But we will know soon: Electric Vehicles are here

• Lithium Ion Batteries? • Super-Capacitors? • Back to Hydrogen & Hydrogen Fuel Cells? • A more or less full transition to intermittent

renewables will eventually require deployment of larger amounts energy storage. My own experiences with electric vehicles (see electric bike slide below) has been good, and I am optimistic about storage. But nonetheless we don’t know yet how the economics will develop.

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Chevy Volt: EV with gas back-up

• 35 miles on a charge (16 kWh)

• ~$1.50/gallon equivalent

• Gas generator back-up (up to 375 miles) 63

My (solar powered) E-Bike

• 1000 watts • Cruise control and regenerative braking • 20 miles on 6 cents of electricity

Solar Hot Water Solar Hot Water: A no-brainer

Geothermal Heat Pumps Geothermal Heat Pumps

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This is a great option for, along with weatherization of buildings, displacing large amounts of oil consumption in the Northeast.

Summary on VT Renewable Energy

Policy Situation • Vermont’s policies on renewable energy have not been well thought out.

The policies are utility and developer centric, and in terms of dollars committed have been strongly slanted towards utility-scale wind.

• This situation is greatly aggravated by Vermont allowing utilities to sell Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) out-of-state for projects supported by the SPEED Program, which has the effect of fueling development here which may not be desirable or appropriate, while suppressing much needed renewable energy development in other states.

• At the same time, support for distributed solar generation, which I believe is by far the most important source to pursue here and throughout the region, has been modest and inconsistent.

• An optimal policy would be a greenhouse gas reduction program across all sectors that takes much more advantage of very cost effective measures, while simultaneously supporting the steady and sustainable development of renewable electricity options which are truly appropriate for Vermont, and also for the region.

• The SPEED Program (the “feed-in tariff”) should be replaced by genuine Renewable Energy Standard which utilities can meet by purchasing RECS from homeowners and businesses which generate their own power. 71

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Optimal Plan for Reduction of Carbon

2010 – 2015 2015 Forward

Higher efficiency Vehicles

Weatherization

Energy efficiency

Solar Hot Water

Geothermal Heating

Plan for, and begin, Photovoltaic transition

Continue other measures

Greatly expand Photovoltaic transition if cost has indeed trended low enough.

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Further Discussion?