Sho Murata, Andrew Vierra, Hitomi Inoue. Key points from 1990 ～ 2003 Key Points from 2003 ～ Wheeler’s Criteria Conclusion.

Case study: Iraq 2003Sho Murata, Andrew Vierra, Hitomi Inoue

Key points from 1990 ～ 2003 Key Points from 2003 ～ Wheeler’s Criteria Conclusion

Outline

Key points from １９９０ -2003

02.Aug.1990 – Iraq invaded Kuwait06.Aug.1990 – UNSC Resolution 661 adopted

which imposed economic sanctions

UNSC Resolution 661 (6.Aug.1990) Reaffirming Resolution 660 Noting Iraq‘s refusal to comply with

Resolution 660 and Kwait‘s right of self-defence

The Council took steps to implement international sanctions on Iraq under Chapter VII of the UN Charter

- Resolution 660 (2.Aug.1990)The Council condemned the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq and demanded Iraq withdraw immediately and unconditionally to positions as they were on 1. August.

02.Aug.1990 – Iraq invaded Kuwait06.Aug.1990 – UNSC Resolution 661 adopted

which imposed economic sanctions17.Jan.1991 – USA, UK, France and others

launched war on Iraq28.Feb.1991 – Iraqi Republican Guard expelled

from KuwaitDeclaration of cease-fire

03.Apr.1991 – UNSC Resolution 687 adoptedFoundation of UNSCOM

UNSC Resolution 687 (3.Apr.1991) Reminding Iraq of its obligations under the Geneva Protocol and to unconditionally remove and destroy all chemical and biological weapons and ballistic missiles with a range greater than 150km.

Requesting Iraq submit, within 15 days, a report declaring all locations of all the aforementioned and agree to urgent, on-site inspection.

Requesting Iraq to abide by its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, agreeing not to develop nuclear weapons and submitting a report to the Secretary-General and IAEA within 15 days.

UNSC Resolution 687 (3.Apr.1991) Requesting the Secretary-General to submit, within 3 days, a plan for the deployment of the UN Iraq-Kuwait Observation Mission along the demilitarised zone.

Requesting the Secretary-General to form a special commission which shall carry out immediate on-site inspection of Iraq‘s biological, chemical and missile capabilities. → UNSCOM

United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) An inspection regime created by the UN

with the adoption of Resolution 687 to ensure Iraq’s compliance with policies concerning Iraqi production and use of weapons of mass destruction after the Gulf War.

Until the UNSC saw that Iraq‘s weapons programs had been aborted and Iraqi leaders had allowed monitoring systems to be installed, the UN‘s sanctions would continue to be imposed on Iraq.

UNSC Resolution 678 (29.Nov.1990)The Security Council,

1. Demands that Iraq comply fully with resolution 660 (1990) and all subsequent relevant resolutions, and decides, while maintaining all its decisions, to allow Iraq one final opportunity, as a pause of goodwill, to do so;

2. Authorizes Member States co-operating with the Government of Kuwait, unless Iraq on or before 15 January 1991 fully implements, as set forth in paragraph 1 above, the above-mentioned resolutions, to use all necessary means to uphold and implement resolution 660 (1990) and all subsequent relevant resolutions and to restore international peace and security in the area;

Opinions of Washington and London

British Defence Secretary, Geoff Hoon- Not least because those weapons of mass destruction might well be capable of posing a threat to the UK, in which case we would be entitled to act in self-defence.

British Foreign Office Minister, Ben Bradshaw- Iraq is in flagrant breach, not only Security Council Resolution that was the basis for the Gulf War ceasefire, but of the ceasefire agreement that it entered into at the end of the Gulf War.

UN Charter Article 51 Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the

inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.

Bradshaw‘s Claim1. Resolution 678 authorised the use of force to

expel Iraq from Kuwait in 19902. Resolution 678 also authorised the use of force

in support of the objectives and demands contained in Resolution 687, in April 1991

3. Iraq has breached Resolution 6874. by breaching Resolution 687, Iraq has re-

activated the authorisation to use force originating in Resolution 678

5. the authorisation to use force remains delegated to the United States and Britain, without reference to the Security Council

UNSC Resolution 678 - Premble -The Security Council,Recalling and reaffirming its resolutions 660 (1990) of

2 August 1990, 661 (1990) of 6 August 1990, 662 (1990) of 9 August 1990, 664 (1990) of 18 August 1990, 665 (1990) of 25 August 1990, 666 (1990) of 13 September 1990, 667 (1990) of 16 September 1990, 669 (1990) of 24 September 1990, 670 (1990) of 25 September 1990, 674 (1990) of 29 October 1990 and 677 (1990) of 28 November 1990,

Noting that, despite all efforts by the United Nations, Iraq refuses to comply with its obligation to implement resolution 660 (1990) and the above-mentioned subsequent relevant resolutions, in flagrant contempt of the Security Council,

UNSC Resolution 688 (5.Apr.1991) Insisting Iraq allow access by international

humanitarian organizations to the areas affected.

Demanding Iraq co-operate with the Secretary-General and international organisations to assist in humanitarian aid efforts.

02.Aug.1990 – Iraq invaded Kuwait06.Aug.1990 – UNSC Resolution 661 adopted

which imposed economic sanctions17.Jan.1991 – USA, UK, France and others

launched war on Iraq28.Feb.1991 – Iraqi Republican Guard expelled

from KuwaitDeclaration of cease-fire

03.Apr.1991 – UNSC Resolution 687 adoptedFoundation of UNSCOM

15.Aug.1991 – UNSC Resolution 706 adopted

UNSC Resolution 706 (15.Aug.1991) Decide on a mechanism to allow Iraq to sell oil

in return for humanitarian aid from Member States.- Iraq could sell um to US$ 1,6 billion, following approval of each sale by the Security Council Committee.

⇒Iraq refusedclaiming that it was a violation of its sovereignty

and that it imposed a guardianship on its people

30.Oct.1998 – Security Council refused to confirm that economic sanctions would be lifted in the event of verfied Iraqi disarmament

31.Oct.1998 – Iraq ceased cooperation with UNSCOM.

11.Nov.1998 – UNSCOM staff were withdrawn from Iraq on instruction from the United States.

14.Nov.1998 – Iraqi Government resumed accepting inspectors from UNSCOM and IAEA.

15.Nov.1998 – UNSC confirmed cooperation by Iraq.

Failures of Iraq 1991 Allied forces destroyed the civilian infrastructure

which supported public health- Value of destroyed infrastructure and economic assets: USD232bn (Iran-Iraq war: 67bn)- 18 of 20 power-generating plants were rendered inoperable *immediate postwar electricity was reduced to 4% of prewar levels *water couldn‘t be purified and sewage couldn‘t be treated, which let water-borne disease flourish *estimated mortality due to diarrhea during both 1991 and 1992 were triple of 1990 levels

Failures of Iraq 1991 *the death rate among children under five

had more than doubled during the period of sanctions- UNICEF Executive Director Carol Bellamy: There would have been half a million fewer deaths of children during the period 1991 to 1998 if substantial reduction in child mortality throughout Iraq during the 1980s had continued

Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conversations (Protocol I)

Article 54, Section 2- It is prohibited to attack, destroy, remove or

render useless objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian poulation or to the adverse Party, whatever the motive, whether in order to starve out civilians, to cause them to move away, or for any other motive.

Positions of the US and the Europe

US‘s Position

Saddam Hussein is a brutal dictator who has defied UNSC resolutions for over a decade.

Perpetuation of the status quo

- sanctions on Iraq- no-fly zones- the presence of Western troops in Saudi Arabia

is itself a cause of terrorism.

Europe‘s Position

Iraq is a problem, but using force is not the answer.

Invasion of Iraq could lead to a long-term occupation that would actually provoke more terrorism.

Positions of the US and the Europe

US‘s Position

Iraq could be conquered, stabilized, and even democratized, like Japan and Germany after the Second World War.

If Saddam Hussein were removed, democracy could flourish in the Middle East.

Europe‘s Position

Considering postwar Iraq, we should think more about Lebanon and Algeria than Germany and Japan.

Iraq‘s ethnically divided population

resentful Shiite majority artificial borders Unequally allocated

natural resources

Saddam Hussein- 1937 Born in Al-Awja.- 1957 Dropped out of an law school and

joined the revolutionary pan-Arab Ba’ath Party.

- 1963 Through a coup d’état supported by CIA, Ba’ath Party came into power.

- 1968 Appointed as vice-president.Extended the secret police network and urged elimination and massacre of objectors.

- 1972 President Bakr declared nationalization of petroleum.⇒President Nixon immediately maneuvered to withdraw.

Saddam Hussein- 1975 Hussein and Shah agreed to alienate dominion

over Shatt al-Arab to Iran.Because of huge deposits of petroleum in Middle East, the US worried about intensification of USSR power there, and as long as the river dominated by Shah, dominated by the US, American national interest would be secured.

- 1979 Due to rising Anti-American Nationalism and fundamentalism, Shah lost dominion over Iran.US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Kazimierz

Brzeziński officialy ordered Iraq to attack Iran and regain the river.Reagan regime started active support for Hussein.

Scott Ritter (1961-) UN weapons inspector in Iraq

in the UNSCOM (1991-1998) Critic of US foreign policy

in the Middle East

Ritter’s claim By December 1998, Iraq had been disarmed to

a level demanded in UNSC Resolution. 90 to 95 percent of MDW in Iraq were put into

the discard verifiably. There is no evidence that Iraq still posesses

the other 5 to 10 percent of MDW. Even if Iraq still posesses them, even

development plan cannot be made. By the time that UNSCOM inspetion was

suspended, 100 percent of infrastructure and plants to develop nuclear weapons were put into the discard.

Hussein and Bin Laden President Vladimir Putin: We know which nations’

representatives and citizens were fighting alongside the Taliban, and where their activities were financed from. Iraq is not on the list.

Michael Griffin, author of Reaping the Whirlwind, a study of the Taliban: when you study lists of suspects in previous al Qaeda operations, you find Syrians, Jordanians, Yemenis, Egyptians, Saudis, but no Iraqis, Iranians, Afghans, or Libyans.

British Joint Intelligence Committee dossier: British intelligence sources say that despite attempts by the CIA and FBI to find links between Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network and Iraq, the British dossier does not refer to them because there is no evidence to back up the US claims.

Political leaders demanding new Resolutions

Denzil Davies (former Labour Shadow Defence Secretary)

Douglas Hurd (former Conservative Foreign Secretary)

King Abdullah of Jordan Malcolm Harper (Director of the British United

Nations Association) President Chirac Cancellor Schröder

Political leaders demanding new Resolutions

the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the most effective opposition guerrilla group in Iraq: Do not take military action against Saddam Hussein without United Nations approval.

The Kuwaiti Defence Minister, Sheikh Jaber al-Hamad al-Sabah: Kuwait does not support threats to hit Iraq or to launch an attack against it. Our acceptance for this matter is conditional on an international blanket decision within the global organization.

Iraq War 2003

Began March 20, 2003 May 1, 2003 “Mission Accomplished” It has been said that all troops will be withdrawn by end of this year (8 years

after Mission Accomplished) 109,032 deaths including 66,081 civilian deaths According to The New York Times, "he [Saddam] murdered as many as a

million of his people, many with poison gas. He tortured, maimed and imprisoned countless more. His unprovoked invasion of Iran is estimated to have left another million people dead. His seizure of Kuwait threw the Middle East into crisis.”

Estimated 800,000 deaths caused by Saddam not counting the Iran-Iraq war. Estimated number of Iraqis killed 300,000-600,00

Estimates as to the number of Kurds he massacred vary from 70,000 to 300,000

Estimates as to the number killed in the put-down of the 1991 rebellion vary from 60,000 to 200,000.

Estimates for the number of dead in the Iran-Iraq war range upwards from 300,000.

Iraq War and Death

A Graph

Iraq

War

Sadd

am

Rwan

da0

100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

Deaths

Deaths

March 2003 War in Iraq begins War on Terror! April 9th Baghdad falls, ending Hussein’s 24 year rule May 1st President Bush delivers mission accomplished speech.

Beginning

The Capture of Saddam

Captured on 13 December 2003 in

Operation Red Dawn

The Trial Of Saddam Took Place

underneath the Iraqi Interim Government

5th of November 2006 convicted and sentenced to death

by hanging.

Received public attention after coming to public attention through 60 Minutes news report on April 28th 2004

Prisoner Abuse at Abu Ghraib

CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority)

Invested with executive,

legislative and judicial

authority over the Iraqi

government from April 2003

to June 2004

Took Office May 20, 2006 General Election December 2005 Role of Iraqi National Assembly

Current Government

Proposed 21,500 more troops for Iraq 1.2 Billion dollars in reconstruction

proposals Varying opinions on success in the surge of

troops

Bush’s 2007 State of the Union Address

All U.S Soldiers will be out of Iraq by December 31, 2011

Possibly a justification or approval of the U.S occupation of Iraq

"The Security Agreement addresses our presence, activities, and withdrawal from Iraq", Bush said. He continued that "two years ago, this day seemed unlikely - but the success of the surge and the courage of the Iraqi people set the conditions for these two agreements to be negotiated and approved by the Iraqi parliament.”

US Iraq Status of Forces Agreement

War on Terror Shot and killed in Pakistan on May 2, 2011 Man on the Moon Sacrilegious

Osama Bin Laden

On April 30, 2009 The United Kingdom withdrew

On July 28, 2009 Australia withdrew its military presence in Iraq

The U.S claims it will be out of Iraq by the end of this year

Withdrawal

In 632 A.D Shiites believed that Muhammad's cousin Ali should be have been Muhammad’s successor whereas Sunnis supported an older more experienced member of the community

War Led to a huge divide between Sunnis and Shiites as U.S supported the Sunnis

Before the war they coexisted peacefully

Suni Shiites

The International community failed to recognize that some states may act pre-emptively and did not provide an adequate framework for pre-emptive action against such groups as terrorists with weapons of mass destruction.

U.S Vulnerability

Failure of International Community

Began March 20, 2003 May 1, 2003 “Mission Accomplished” It has been said that all troops will be withdrawn by end of this year (8 years

after Mission Accomplished) 109,032 deaths including 66,081 civilian deaths According to The New York Times, "he [Saddam] murdered as many as a

million of his people, many with poison gas. He tortured, maimed and imprisoned countless more. His unprovoked invasion of Iran is estimated to have left another million people dead. His seizure of Kuwait threw the Middle East into crisis.”

Estimated 800,000 deaths caused by Saddam not counting the Iran-Iraq war. Estimated number of Iraqis killed 300,000-600,00

Estimates as to the number of Kurds he massacred vary from 70,000 to 300,000

Estimates as to the number killed in the put-down of the 1991 rebellion vary from 60,000 to 200,000.

Estimates for the number of dead in the Iran-Iraq war range upwards from 300,000.

Iraq War and Death

http://www.shelleytherepublican.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/mission_accomplished.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f1/Iraq,_Saddam_Hussein_%28222%29.jpg/220px-Iraq,_Saddam_Hussein_%28222%29.jpg

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/07/iraq/main616081.shtml?tag=mncol;lst;2 (abuse)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Republican_palace_baghdad_iraq.jpg

Work Cited (Pictures)

WHEELER’S THEORY OF HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION

Wheeler’s Criteria Wheeler’s Criteria Hitomi Sho Andrew

Threshold Criteria

1 Supreme humanitarian emergency

× 　　　　　　 △ ×△

2Necessity/Last Resort × × ×

3 Proportionality × △ △

4Positive Humanitarian Outcome

△ △× △

Additional Criteria

1 Humanitarian Motives

× × ×

2 Humanitarian Justifications

△ × △×

3 Legality × × △×

4 Selectivity × △ ×

Although there was genocide against the Kurds in 1998, there was no ongoing or imminent mass slaughter in Iraq.

“in March 2003, Saddam Hussein faced anything but a clear path to resumed mass slaughter. Boxed in by sanctions and no-fly zones, he lacked the capacity to launch the kinds of major military operations that had characterized his past murderous outbursts without attracting the immediate attention of governments with substantial military assets in region

(Roth, 86 )”

1.Supreme Humanitarian Emergency 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 (×/△/△)

The U.S. have decided to intervene because Iraq’s report about WMD by IAEA was inadequate, In a sense the US was looking for the good reason to begin the Iraq War to punish Saddam Hussein.

U.S was extending the number of troops in January before the submission of the report.

Other possible ways to solve the problem e.g. postpone the investigation criminal prosecution

2.Neccessity/Last Ressort　　　　（ ×/△×/× ）

Because of the high technology, the US overwhelmed Iraq, and smoothly invaded Iraq with smaller number of troops in Iraq.

However, as Roth notes, “understaffing was only compounded by the

failure to deploy an adequate number of troops trained in policing(89)”

Given that Iraq invaded Iraq on the pretext of rescuing Iraqi people, giving inadequate number of troops trained in policing is the U.S’S failure.

3.Proportionality （ ×/△/△ ）

Comparison of military force

Iraq 1991

・” Powell Doctrine” ・ 660,000 soldiers

・ Introduction of mass weapons and people ・ 17th January to 3rdMarch

Iraq 　 2003

・ 263,000 　 soldiers U.S. army and navy 100,000 UK army 30,000 Intelligence : U.S. 214,000 U.K 45,000 Australia 2000 Poland 2400 ・ Introduction of high efficient arms・ 19th March to 1st , 44 days

Short-term Outcome　・ The US failed to improve the public safety,

adequate food supply, and construction of infrastructure.

　・ Lack of human resource to assist.　・ looting, violence was rampant 　　　⇒ state of anarchy

4.Positive Humanitarian Outcome(△/△/△)

Mid-term Outcome Democracy in the hand of Iraqi people

Civil War between Shias and Sunni

４． Positive Humanitarian Outcome

date history

28th June, 2004 Control and sovereignty of Iraq is handed over from the United States to an interim Iraqi government

30th January, 2005 Election of Iraqi Transitional Government for the Constitution

15th October, 2005 Referendum for the permanent Constitution

December, 2005 An Iraqi National assembly was elected in December, with participation from the Sunnis as well as the Kurds and Shia

Unstable political situation Sectarian violence, August 14, 2007 Yazidi communities bombing in

North part of Iraq caused 796 and wounded 1,562 people

refugees As of November 4, 2006, the United Nations High

Commissioner for Refugees estimated that 1.8 million Iraqis had been displaced to neighboring countries, and 1.6 milliions were displace internally, with nearly 100,000 Iraqis fleeing to Syria and Jordan each month

“Governments that intervene to stop mass slaughter inevitably act for other reason as well, but a dominant humanitarian intervention is important (Roth,88)”

Although there are some concerns about the Iraqi people under Fussein’s regime, there were more motivation such as,

・ punish Iraq for possessing WMD (which had no convincing evidence )

・ transform Iraq to democratic nation in Middle East ・ to protect the U.S. from terrorist attack ・ Secure the oil resource in Iraq

5.Humanitarian Motive　（ ×/×/× ）

American exceptionalism “The Bush Doctrine” “the long-standing belief of successive American

governments that it is a carrier of universal values, which the United States has a historic responsibility to protect” (Wheeler,185)

Event in 9/11 and its fear “the administration’s belief that the United States

is uniquely threatened after 9/11, and thus is justified in exempting itself from the ordinary legal rules.” (185)

6.Humanitarian Justification(△/×/△×)

The U.S. invasion was not approved by Security Council.

The contradictory interpretation of Resolution 1441 The U.S: it enabled the automatic use of force in the

event of non compliance France: force could only be used when inspectors had

reported back to the Security Council for a further decision

⇒but, there is no “authorization” in the Resolution 1441.

7.Legality（ ×/△×/× ）

“pre-emptive self-defence” UN Chater 51 “If an armed attack occurs against a Member of

the United Nations”

Some international lawyers argue that a right of anticipatory self-defense exists in customary international law (190)

⇒However, the U.S. failed to demonstrate that Iraq was posing a threat prior to invasion.

The U.S was determined intervene Iraq, whether Iraq submitted the adequate report or not.

70 percent of the U.S. people supported the intervention just before the war began.

８． Selectivity 　 ×

Wheeler’s Criteria Wheeler’s Criteria Hitomi Sho Andrew

Threshold Criteria

1 Supreme humanitarian emergency

× 　　　　　　 △ ×△

2Necessity/Last Resort × × ×

3 Proportionality × △ △

4Positive Humanitarian Outcome

△ △× △

Additional Criteria

1 Humanitarian Motives

× × ×

2 Humanitarian Justifications

△ × △×

3 Legality × × △×

4 Selectivity △ △ ×

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