Second National Communication of the Republic of TAJIKISTAN under the UNFCCC

Second National Communication Second National Communication of the Republic of TAJIKISTAN of the Republic of TAJIKISTAN

under the UNFCCCunder the UNFCCC

Ilhomjon RAJABOVIlhomjon RAJABOV

Head, Climate Change CentreHead, Climate Change Centre

Side Event: Thirteenth Session of the SBSTA/SBI UNFCCC,

Bonn, Germany

5 June 2009

The project touched the following aspects in terms of vulnerability and adaptation assessment:

• Change in air temperature and precipitation patterns in the lowlands and mountain regions of the country [1940s – 2000s]

• Impact of climate change on natural resources and adaptation:

- Glaciers

- Water resources

- Natural ecosystems, forests, land and soil

• Impact of climate change on economic development and adaptation :

- Water economy

- Agriculture

• Impact of climate change on human health and adaptation

Main outcomesMain outcomes of TJK SNC of TJK SNC preparation process (1):preparation process (1):

Vulnerability and AdaptationVulnerability and Adaptation

Change in air temperatureChange in air temperature

For the past 60 years air temperature in selected parts of the country increased by 1C (populated areas in south-central TJK).

Precipitation and droughtsPrecipitation and droughts

• Increasing variability in precipitation

• Changes in extreme events (more severe dry and wet episodes)

Former glacier

Many small glaciers in Tajikistan totally Many small glaciers in Tajikistan totally disappeared due to recent climate warmingdisappeared due to recent climate warming

Due to ice melting risks of long term water deficit and glacial lakes formation and sudden outburst floods are increasing

Climate change projections for the Climate change projections for the mountain regionsmountain regions

Water towers of Central Asia

Pamirs and Tien-Shan

Ice and snow melting may trigger Ice and snow melting may trigger water problemswater problems

• The Tajik GHG (greenhouse gas inventory) covers the period 1990-2003 (2005).

• The main sectors considered in the Tajik GHG Inventory:

- Energy

- Industrial processes

- Agriculture

- Waste

- Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

The main greenhouse gases:

- CO2

- CH4

- N2O

- CF4 and C2F6 (from aluminium production)

- GHG precursors and SO2

Main outcomesMain outcomes of TJK SNC of TJK SNC preparation process (2):preparation process (2):

Greenhouse Gas InventoryGreenhouse Gas Inventory

• In 1990-2003 the highest GHG emissions were observed in 1990 and reached 25 million metric tons in CO2-equivalent. The lowest GHG emissions were observed in 2000 at 7 million metric tons in CO2-equivalent.

• The maximum decrease of GHG was in ENERGY sector (from 17 to 3 mln. tons), whereas the minimum decrease was in AGRICULTURE (from 5 to 4 mln. tons). The increase of GHG emissions is evident in the TRASNPORT sector due to increase in a number of vehicles in the recent decade.

• For the last 15 years the structure of the GHG emissions significantly changed. In 1990 the ENERGY sector contributed majority (70%) of the total emissions, AGRICULTURE 20%, INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 10% and WASTE 3%. However, in 2003-2005 due to the overall economic decline and energy crisis situation changed. The contribution by the ENERGY SECTOR reduced to 30%, while the share of AGRICULTURAL SECTOR increased to 50% of the total.

Main outcomesMain outcomes of TJK SNC of TJK SNC preparation process (2):preparation process (2):

Greenhouse Gas InventoryGreenhouse Gas Inventory

Decrease of CO2 in the energy sector is mostly due to decreased fossil fuel use and energy crisis

Energy use and consumptionEnergy use and consumption

• Climate change policy:

- Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by TAJ in 2008

- Adoption of the National Programme of renewable energy development for 2007-2015

- Follow-up the National Action Plan on climate change mitigation • Mitigation activities:

- Development of renewable energy, mainly hydropower (in the last decade about 20 small and medium HPPs were installed)

- Energy efficiency (new energy efficient equipment and electronic devices installed in the key energy-intense industry such as Tajik Aluminum Plant; transportation network improved)

- Plans for substantial growth of hydropower production by 2015-20

- Afforestation efforts

SNC process and benefits:SNC process and benefits:Climate change policy and mitigationClimate change policy and mitigation

• Lack of human and technical capacity to:

- model long-term climate change scenarios and impacts in the mountains and valleys of Tajikistan

- long-term forecast of water resource availability in of the main rivers of Tajikistan (cross-border)

• Lack of legal instruments to implement climate change initiatives and projects at the national level

• Lack of awareness among policy-makers to proceed with climate change mitigation and adaptation

Key challenges in preparation Key challenges in preparation of the TJK SNC:of the TJK SNC:

• Climate change and national security : cross-sector linkages • Update of the national GHG Inventory • Assessment of the potential to reduce GHG emissions in residential

and industrial sectors through CDM projects aiming at energy efficiency and development of renewables

• Long-term water availability in the main rivers of Tajikistan and strategic implications for the Central Asian region

• Long-term prediction of climate change and consideration of the indicators other than T and Precipitation (e.g. humidity, frequency of extreme weather events, snow accumulation in the mountains, etc.)

• Increase in climate change research: exploration of paleoclimate in the mountains, impact of climate change on flora and fauna, glaciers.

• Popularisation of climate change findings and concerns among the policy-makers and the general public

Next steps:Next steps:Prospects for the subsequent National Prospects for the subsequent National

CommunicationsCommunications

Thank you for your Thank you for your attention!attention!

Ilhomjon RajabovIlhomjon RajabovHead of climate change center, Agency on Head of climate change center, Agency on

Hydrometeorology.Hydrometeorology.47 shevchenko str, Dushanbe Tajikistan47 shevchenko str, Dushanbe Tajikistan

Tel/Fax: +992 372 27 61 81Tel/Fax: +992 372 27 61 81E-mail: E-mail: [email protected]

www.meteo.tjwww.meteo.tj