Science for the MDGs: The need for new policy development tools and methods Hans R. Herren [email protected] AAAS.

Science for the MDGs:

The need for new policy development tools and methods

Hans R. Herren

www.millennium-institute.org [email protected]

AAAS Symposium, February 2008

You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

mailto:[email protected]

• The Millennium Institute is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

• Established in 1983 to promote system thinking and long-term integrated approaches to decision making in national governments, civil society, universities, foundations and the public.

• MI has assisted many countries analyze strategic options to achieve sustainable development goals; trained staff of governments, agencies, and NGOs in the application of systemic analysis; and helped General Motors design its program in many emerging markets

Who are we?


• Formulation and general agreement on MDGs in 2000• Comprehensive Development Framework and PRSP• Response to global warming, energy and environmental

degradation issues, good governance, Commission for Africa report, Paris Declaration on harmonization…

Call for new development planning support tools/methods: Why?

• So far mixed results in meeting medium term MDGs targets• Difficulties in developing realistic PRSPs• Lacking dialogue among the development stakeholder• Missing input regarding value for sustainable development of

S & T investments




The Paris Declaration, calling:

• for “Changed Behavior” of donors and governments i.e.,

• Change in behavior & operations• Change in policies & procedures• Change in processes & systems

• to build a new form of Development Partnership - by changing deeply rooted patterns of Institutional behavior

• To change donor behavior from Disbursement Imperative to “Aid Effectiveness Imperative”

• For Government to have Leadership on external assistance

• Formulation and general agreement on MDGs in 2000• Comprehensive Development Framework and PRSP• Response to global warming, energy and environmental

degradation issues, good governance, Commission for Africa report, Paris Declaration on harmonization…


• So far mixed results in meeting medium term MDGs targets• Difficulties in developing realistic PRSPs• Difficulties in integrating the economy, society and the

environment into a self reinforcing, single framework• Lacking dialogue among the development stakeholder• Missing input regarding value for sustainable development of S

& T investments


Also a need to address and cater for:

• Long term holistic vision (Economy+Society+Environment• Country ownership (public/private and civil society)• Country led partnership• Country led sustainable development agenda

• Focus on results (impact & consequences of policy choices)

• Monitoring and evaluation of progress and impact



• Getting the System right (capacity & accountability /governance issues)

• Peace and Security (prevention / management of conflicts and post conflicts negotiations

• Leaving no One Out ( T21 for dialogue; rebuilding countries)• Going for Growth (& development / poverty reduction)• Leveraging Key scientific and technological advances• Applying Aid to create system-wide synergies (finding the entry

points)• Identify and Avoid key unintended consequences of development

projects • More Trade & Fairer Trade (analyses of opportunities and

costs…..)

….and How?…. And with What means?

Call for new development planning support tools/methods: For what?


• Development and dissemination of advanced analytical tools and methods in support of prospective planning dialogues and M&E at community, national, global, agency levels;

• Crafting and implementing capacity development for a broad cross-section of partners in sustainable development (system thinking & handling) using all modern communication means;

• Building a network of supporters and partners across the globe to inspire, promote, endow and implement rational, integrated and holistic planning;

• Applying the lessons learned towards better efficiency of our activities to serve

Call for new development planning support tools/methods: How?


Un

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yste

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..removing a problem,


..may create feedbacks &U

nd

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and

ing

Sys

tem

s…


unintended consequence

children inschool

literatepopulationenrollements graduations

dropouts

attractiveness togo to school

infrastructure

teching staffhouseholdsincome

students perclass

students perteacher

school feedingdisbursment

school feeedingper student

average time tograduate

deaths

literacy rate

real gdp

governmenteducation budget

fertility

school agechildren

workersproductivity

Un

der

stan

din

g S

yste

ms…


unintended consequence

children inschool

literatepopulationenrollements graduations

dropouts

attractiveness togo to school

infrastructure

teching staffhouseholdsincome

students perclass

students perteacher

school feedingdisbursment

school feeedingper student

average time tograduate

deaths

literacy rate

real gdp

governmenteducation budget

fertility

school agechildren

workersproductivity

Un

der

stan

din

g S

yste

ms…


• Help understand how things work in the real world

• Help understand why certain results occur

• Help see what is likely to happen in the future under different development policies

• Help inform strategic and other decisions

• Help our limited mental ability to deal with more than 3 or 4 variables simultaneously

Why use models ?


The Three Areas of Integration

Economy Society

Environment

Threshold 21Threshold 21


Population

Labor

Education

Health

Poverty

Infrastructure

Production

Households

Investment

Government

Technology

ROW

Land

Water

Minerals

Energy

Sustainability

Emissions

Society Economy

EnvironmentWater Demand

Secondary Education

Water Supply

Primary Education

Energy Supply

Energy Demand

Industry

Agriculture

Services

RevenueExpenditure

FinancingDebt

BirthsPopulation

Deaths

T21 ArchitectureT21 Architecture


The Key Connections in T21

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are needed to see this picture.


• Addresses the WHOLE system, including, economic, social and environmental factors

• Takes account of interactions across the WHOLE system

• Generates long-term scenarios to show effects over time

• Helps users analyze and understand how national systems function

Production

Investment

Capital

Income

Consumption Loans/debt

Health, Edu., Fam.Planning

Educationlevel

Population

Labor force

Labor productivity

Liveexpenctancy

Pollution controlResourceconservation

T 21T 21Broader Systemic Model:Broader Systemic Model:


• System dynamics methodology Built to reflect observed real world relations in country of application Analyzes cross-sector links and feedback loops Based on wide range of existing sector models and analyses

• Composed of three main areas Economic -- based on SAM, key market balances, and production over time Social -- based on current dynamics in population, health, HIV/AIDS, education Environmental -- based on country specific issues and information

• Adapted to country specific data, issues, objectives, actual relations

• Calibrated against history and reality checks

• Easy to use interface to simulate hundreds of options, based on 12,000 equations and variables on a laptop in less than 15 seconds

• Easy to compare results of different options on the roadmaps generated

• Builds local capacity to integrate T21 into national planning

Threshold 21approach


For Example: The MDG Challenges

• Success within the target sectors• Interaction among the target sectors• Impacts beyond the target sectors• Impacts over time• Sustaining and building on success so the

programs continue beyond 2015• Increasing capacity for self-sustaining programs


under five population4 M

3 M

2 M1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Time (Year)

under five population : Base Personunder five population : Health Person


T21 Shows results of feedbackT21 Shows results of feedback

Results compared

T21 Shows cross-sector feedbackT21 Shows cross-sector feedback

under five population4 M

3 M

2 M1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Time (Year)

under five population : Base Personunder five population : Health and Education Person

Broader systemic results


T21 Fully integrated resultsT21 Fully integrated results

gdp in usd200020 B

10 B

01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Time (Year)

gdp in usd2000 : Base USD2000/Yeargdp in usd2000 : All USD2000/Year


Broader systemic results

T21’s Strategic CapacityT21’s Strategic Capacity

• Generates continuous long-term scenarios that provide a better

framework for strategic planning

• Demonstrates full range of effects and impacts of different policies

and assumptions on overall sustainability

• Compares the results of different policy options graphically or in

tables for economic, social, and environmental results

• Helps identify ways to mitigate possible negative side-effects

• Can help identify risks stemming from potential crises

• Monitors the MDGs and other indicators

• It can show the costs and benefits of different approaches over time


MI’s Suggestions for T21 Country X implementation

Partners: Government, Universities, Civil Society Organizations, Private Sector

• Capacity Development for SD and Modeling:

Development Executive course: SD, case studies, T21. Five days, 15 to 30 participants from Gov, Private and Public sectors.

Core modeling team course. Three modules 6 weeks (SD theory, T21 model, sub-sector building).

• Building of full T21 Country X with sub-sectors of special interest (customization)


MI around the World

T 21 Countries

MI Partner

MI Head Office

M 3 Countries

MEG Countries


• “MI’s integrated dynamic models have been vital for GM’s sales forecasts”Paul Ballew, GM

• “MI’s long-term, integrated perspective is essential” Pablo Guerrero, World Bank

• “MI’s T21 analytical tool is essential for effective national development strategies” Ed Cain, Carter Center

• Fascinating! David Cohen, Counterparts International

• If only we had known such a tool existed….Chorus of planning experts from 11 countries in Southern Africa

• We need to use this tool at the Headquarters, in our embassies and help our country partner acquire it…

• Dutch Ambassador Ton Boon von Ochsen

• I want that T 21 planning team in my office… Président Amadou T Touré, Mali

• It has been my dream since ten years to get the the POIJ departments to work together…now its happening with T21; With T21 I can see team building and networking across the ministries and government agencies and effective communication

Wesley Hugh, Director Planning office Jamaica

What our partners andclients are saying…


Thank You for Your AttentionThank You for Your Attention

Questions and comments Questions and comments are welcomeare welcome

www.millennium-institute.org [email protected]


mailto:[email protected]

Science for the MDGs: The need for new policy development tools and methods Hans R. Herren [email protected] AAAS.

Documents

capacity development

einstein slide

sustainable development

sustainable development

new policy development

holistic planning

external assistance

understanding systems