Russia Polyethylene Market

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Russia: Polyethylene

Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

November 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

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Market Research Russia: Polyethylene Market. November 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian polyethylene market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;

Analysis of raw materials’ base;

Analysis of the state of the consuming industries;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report on the Russian polyethylene market contains information on the

following commodity groups:

Low pressure polyethylene ;

High pressure polyethylene.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian polyethylene market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.

The report contains 160 pages, 53 Tables, and 72 Figures.




The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Why People Choose Us

• We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have

completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

• We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts

verify all secondary information used in the report.

• We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of

the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

complete picture of the market of interest.

• Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work.

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find out about these conditions from our specialists now!




Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian polyethylene market and

build a forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents 1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Description of polyethylene

4. Technology of production of polyethylene

5. Characteristics of the Russian polyethylene market

5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian polyethylene market

5.2. Structure of the polyethylene market

5.3. Level of concentration of production and characteristics of the competition on the

market

6. Characteristics of the domestic production of polyethylene

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of polyethylene in 2005 - October 2012.

6.2. Structure of production polyethylene by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

6.3. Main manufacturers of polyethylene

6.3.1. OJSC “Kazanorgsintez”

6.3.2. LLC “Stavrolen”

6.3.3. OJSC “Tomskneftekhim”

6.3.4. OJSC “Nizhnekamskneftekhim”

6.3.5. OJSC “Ufaorgsintez”

6.3.6. OJSC “Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat”

6.3.7. OJSC “Angarskiy Polymer Factory”

6.4. Investment projects in the industry

7. Characteristics of manufacturers’ prices of polyethylene

7.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of polyethylene

7.2. Comparison of manufacturers’ prices by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

8. Characteristics of the imports of polyethylene to the Russian market

8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of polyethylene

8.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported polyethylene on the

territory of the Russian Federation

8.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the polyethylene, imported to the Russian

Federation

8.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of polyethylene

8.5. Structure of the imports of polyethylene by regions of the Russian Federation

9. Characteristics of the Russian exports of polyethylene

9.1. Volume and dynamics of the exports of polyethylene

9.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of polyethylene

9.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying polyethylene for exports

9.4. Sending regions of the Russian exports of polyethylene

10. Factors, influencing the development of the polyethylene market in Russia

11. Characteristics of the consumption of polyethylene

11.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of polyethylene in 2008-2011. Forecast

until 2017




11.2. Structure of consumption of polyethylene by industries

11.3. Balance between production and consumption of polyethylene

12. Forecast for the development of the polyethylene market in 2012-2017

12.1. Scenarios for development of the world economy

12.2. Scenarios for development of the polyethylene market

Appendix1. Financial and economic indicators of the industry

Appendix2. Profiles of the leading manufacturers




List of tables

Table 1. Volume and dynamics of the polystyrene market in 2007-2011 and forecast until

2017, in thousands of tons

Table 2. Production of polyethylene in 2007 - September 2012, in thousands of tons

Table 3. Main manufacturers of polyethylene and production in 2009-2011 and the share of

production in 2011

Table 4. Production of polyethylene in 2009-2011

Table 5. Production of polymers by the OJSC “Tomskneftekhim” in 2009-2011

Table 6. Production of basic polymers by the OJSC “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” in 2009-2011

Table 7. Production of basic polymers by the OJSC “Ufaorgsintez” in 2009-2011

Table 8. Production capacity for polyethylene production, planned for commissioning in

2012-2018

Table 9. Average manufacturers' prices of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January

2007 - September 2012

Table 10. Imports of polyethylene in 2011 including Kazakhstan and Belarus

Table 11. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in tons

Table 12. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 13. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-July

2012, in tons

Table 14. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-July

2012, in thousands of USD

Table 15. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing countries in 2011, in

tons

Table 16. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 17. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing countries in January-July

2012, in tons

Table 18. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing countries in January-July


Table 19. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

tons

Table 20. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 21. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing companies in January-

July 2012, in tons

Table 22. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by manufacturing companies in January-

July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 23. Volume of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation by recipient

companies in 2011, in tons


companies in 2011, in thousands of USD





companies in January-July 2012, in tons


companies in January-July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 27. Volume of the imports of polyethylene by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011, in tons


Federation in 2011, in thousands of USD


Federation in January-July 2012, in tons


Federation in January-July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 31. Imports of polyethylene in 2011 including Kazakhstan and Belarus

Table 32. Exports of polyethylene in 2011 including Kazakhstan and Belarus

Table 33. Volume of the exports of polyethylene in 2011, in tons

Table 34. Volume of the exports of polyethylene in 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 35. Volume of the exports of polyethylene in January-July 2012, in tons

Table 36. Volume of the exports of polyethylene in January-July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 37. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in 2011, in

tons

Table 38. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 39. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in January-

July 2012, in tons

Table 40. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in January-

July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 41. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by manufacturing companies in

2011, in tons




January-July 2012, in tons


January-July 2012, in thousands of USD

Table 45. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in 2011, in tons

Table 46. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 47. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in January-July

2012, in tons

Table 48. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in January-July


Table 49. Profitability and financial balance dynamics of organizations by sector in 2008-

January 2012




Table 50. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand for polyethylene in 2011-


Table 51. Base scenario for the development of the polyethylene market

Table 52. Conservative scenario for the development of the polyethylene market

Table 53. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the polyethylene market




List of Figures

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the polyethylene market in 2008-2011 and forecast for 2012-


Fig. 2. Structure and dynamics of the polyethylene market in 2008-2011 and forecast until


Fig. 3. Structure of the polyethylene market by origin in physical terms in 2011

Fig. 4. Production of polyethylene in 2011 - September 2012, in thousands of tons

Fig. 5. Production of polyethylene in January 2010 - September 2012, in %, to the

analogical period of the previous year

Fig. 6. Production of polyethylene in 2005-2011, in thousands of tons

Fig. 7. Production of polyethylene in 2007-2011, in billions of RUR

Fig. 8. Structure of production of polyethylene by companies in 2011

Fig. 9. Index of the average manufacturers' prices of polyethylene in the Russian Federation

in January-December 2011

Fig. 10. Index of the average manufacturers' prices of polyethylene in the Russian

Federation in January-September 2012

Fig. 11. Comparison of the average manufacturers' prices of polyethylene by Federal

Districts, in September 2012

Fig. 12. Dynamics of the average manufacturers' prices of polyethylene in the Russian

Federation in January 2011 - September 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of

the previous year

Fig. 13. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in 2008-2011, in thousands of tons

Fig. 14. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in tons

Fig. 15. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 16. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-July

2012, in tons

Fig. 17. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in January-July


Fig. 18. Structure of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2011 in physical terms


countries in 2011 in value terms


countries in January-July 2012 in physical terms


countries in January-July 2012 in value terms


companies in 2011 in physical terms


companies in 2011 in terms of value





companies in January-July 2012 in physical terms


companies in January-July 2012 in value

Fig. 26. Structure of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation by recipient

companies in 2011 in physical terms


companies in 2011 in value terms


companies in January-July 2012 in physical terms


companies in January-July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 30. Structure of the imports of polyethylene by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011 in physical terms


Federation in 2011 in value terms


Federation in January-July 2012 in physical terms


Federation in January-July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 34. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in 2008-2011, in thousands of tons

Fig. 35. Structure of the imports of polyvinyl chloride by regions of the Russian Federation

in January-July 2012 in physical terms

Fig. 36. Structure of the imports of polyvinyl chloride by regions of the Russian Federation

in January-July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 37. Dynamics of the exports of polyethylene in 2008-2011, in thousands of tons

Fig. 38. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polyethylene in 2011, in tons

Fig. 39. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polyethylene in 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 40. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polyethylene in January-July 2012, in tons

Fig. 41. Dynamics of the Russian exports of polyethylene in January-July 2012, in thousands

of USD

Fig. 42. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in 2011 in

physical terms

Fig. 43. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in 2011 in

value terms

Fig. 44. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in January-

July 2012 in physical terms

Fig. 45. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in January-

July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 46. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by manufacturing companies in

2011 in physical terms


2011 in value terms





January-July 2012 in physical terms


January-July 2012 in value terms

Fig. 50. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in 2011 in

physical terms

Fig. 51. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in 2011 in

value terms

Fig. 52. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in January-July


Fig. 53. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by sending regions in January-July

2012 in value terms

Fig. 54. Quarterly dynamics of the GDP of Russia in 2007-2011, in trillions of RUR, excluding

the seasonal factors

Fig. 55. Dynamics of the GDP of Russia in 2005-2011, in 2008 prices, in billions of RUR

Fig. 56. Dynamics of the real income, real wages, and real pensions in 2005-2013, in %

Fig. 57. Quarterly changes in the real disposable income of the population in the Russian

Federation, in %, to the previous year

Fig. 58. Structure of the real expenditures in 2009-2011, in %

Fig. 59. Dynamics of the debt on loans to individuals in January 2009-November2011,

growth rate in %

Fig. 60. Total volume of completed building construction in the Russian Federation in 2005-

2011 in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 61. Structure of commissioned buildings in 2005-2011, in cubic meters

Fig. 62. Total construction volume of commissioned residential buildings in the Russian

Federation in 2005-2011 in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 63. Total construction volume of commissioned nonresidential buildings in the Russian

Federation in 2005-2011 in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 64. Volume of commissioned apartment buildings in 2005-2011, in thousands of square

meters

Fig. 65. Volume of commissioned individual buildings in 2005-2011, in thousands of square

meters

Fig. 66. Number of months that should be worked for the purchase of one square meter of

housing on the primary market

Fig. 67. Dynamics of the production of certain sectors in the economy in 2008-2011, 2008

base

Fig. 68. Dynamics of investments in fixed capital at constant prices (volume index) in 2005-

2011, in %, to the previous year

Fig. 69. Investments in fixed capital by sources of financing in the Russian Federation in

2007-2011

Fig. 70. Dynamics of consumption of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in 2008-2017,

in thousands of tons

Fig. 71. Structure of consumption of polyethylene in 2011




Fig. 72. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand for polyethylene in 2008-

2017




Executive Summary*

…

The volume of supply on the Russian polyethylene market in 2012 was almost … tons, which

is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of

imported products on the polyethylene market was …%.

The volume of production of polyethylene in 2012 was … tons, which is …% higher than the

volume of production in 2011.

The largest share (…%) of all polyethylene manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012

belongs to the … Federal District.

In 2012, the import volume of polyethylene in Russia amounted to … tons in physical terms

and to … thousand USD in value terms.

In 2012, the volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene was … tons, which was equal to

… thousand USD in value terms.

…

*The information provided from this point on in this demo version is for illustrative purposes

only, so that you can get a general overview of how our reports look like. If you need more

information, you can contact us at: [email protected].

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market

mailto:[email protected]




5. Characteristics of the Russian

polyethylene market

...

5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian polyethylene

market in 2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

The volume of supply on the Russian polyethylene market in 2012 was almost … tons, which

is …% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of

imported products on the polyethylene market was …% of the total market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the polyethylene market in 2008 - 2012 and

forecast for 2013 -2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario)




5.2. Structure of the polyethylene market in Russia: production,

exports, imports, consumption

The volume of imports of polyethylene in 2012 was about … tons, which was …% of the

total market volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented

below.

Table 6. Volume and dynamics of the polyethylene market in 2008 - 2012 and

forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of production

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of

exports In units

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 6. Volume and dynamics of the polyethylene market in 2008 - 2012 and

forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Production Consumption

Exports Imports




6. Characteristics of the domestic

production of polyethylene in Russia

in 2007 - 2012

…

6.1 Volume and dynamics of polyethylene production in 2007 -

2012

In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous

year.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 8 Polyethylene production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tons

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares




Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 9 Polyethylene production in 2011 - 2012, in thousands of tons and in %, to

the previous year




6.3 The main manufacturers of polyethylene and their

corresponding market shares

The main manufacturers of polyethylene in Russia in 2011 were Company A, Company B,

and Company C. They produced …, …, and … tons, respectively. They were followed by

Company D (… tons, equal to …% of the total production) and Company E (… tons - …%).

Table 16. Characteristics of the largest manufacturers of pig iron in Russia in 2010

- 2011, in thousands of tons

Manufacturer Region

Production

of

polyethylen

e, in tons

Market

share

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

…




7. Characteristics of polyethylene prices 7.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of polyethylene

Manufacturers’ prices of polyethylene have been fluctuating a lot in the last 5 years – from … RUR/ton in 2007, through … RUR/ton in

2009 to … RUR/ton in December 2012. In 2012, the prices were lower in …, when they were equal to … RUR/ton. They reached their

highest value in …, when they were … RUR/ton, which was …% more, compared to the analogical period of the previous year.

Table 20. Average manufacturers’ prices1 of polyethylene in Russia in January 2007 – November 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical period of the

previous year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical

period of the previous

year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

January … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

February … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

March … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

April … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

May … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

June … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

July … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

August … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

September … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

October … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

November … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

December … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”) 1 Manufacturers’ prices – subject to registration, as a rule, are the actual prices of produced and shipped in the current month production for the domestic market (excluding value added tax, excise duty and other taxes not included in the cost).




8. Characteristics of the imports of

polyethylene to the Russian market 8.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian imports of

polyethylene

…

The volume of Russian imports of polyethylene in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

polyethylene was imported in …, when were exported … tons.

Table 22. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation

in January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)





Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

8.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported

polyethylene on the territory of the Russian Federation

Country A was the leader in terms of imports of polyethylene (in physical terms) in 2011,

with a share of …% of the total. The country imported … tons of polyethylene in 2011. The

second place was taken by Country B, which in 2011 imported … tons of polyethylene (a

share of …%, respectively). In the third place was Country C with a share of …%.





Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms

Table 24. Volume of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011, in tons

Country of origin Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


8.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the polyethylene,

imported to the Russian Federation

Company A was the leader in terms of imports of polyethylene (in physical terms) in 2011,

with a share of …% of the total. The company imported … tons of polyethylene in 2011. The

second place was taken by Company B, which in 2011 imported … tons of polyethylene (a

share of …%, respectively). In the third place was Company C with a share of …%.

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS





Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms

Table 26. Volume of the imports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons

Manufacturing company Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Company A … …%

Company B … …%

Company C … …%

Company D … …%

Company E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Company A

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company E

OTHERS




9. Characteristics of the Russian

exports of polyethylene 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of

polyethylene

…

The volume of Russian exports of polyethylene in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

polyethylene was exported in …, when were exported … tons.

Table 31. Dynamics of the exports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation

in January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …






Fig. 27. Dynamics of the exports of polyethylene in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

9.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of polyethylene

In 2011, the main recipient country of the Russian exports of polyethylene was Country A.

Its share in physical terms was …%. It was then followed by Country B (…%) and Country C

(…%). To Country D and Country E were exported …% and …%, respectively. The combined

share of the other countries is …%.





Fig. 2. Structure of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in


Table 33. Volume of the Russian exports of polyethylene by recipient countries in

2011, in tons

Recipient country Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


…

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS




11. Characteristics of consumption

of polyethylene 11.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of polyethylene

in 2008 - 2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017

The volume of consumption of polyethylene in 2012 was … tons, which was …% more,

compared to 2011. In 2011 was noted the largest drop in the consumption of polyethylene

in recent years - a decline of …% to … thousand tons. Another decline in recent years was

observed in 2009, when the growth rate was …%, compared to 2008. At the end of 2012,

the consumption of polyethylene almost reached the level in 2010, but the growth is not yet

possible to reach the pre-crisis levels of 2007 - 2008.

According to forecasts, the favorable development of the consuming industries can help

consumption of polyethylene increase in the next few years with rates of …-…% annually.

Thus, by 2017, the consumption can reach … million tons. The demand for polyethylene in

the country will be met, as before, by the Russian manufacturers, who account for over …%

of the market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 40. Dynamics of consumption of polyethylene in the Russian Federation

in 2008 – 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons



11.2. Structure of consumption of polyethylene by industries

Currently, the largest shares in the consumption of polyethylene are taken by Industry A

(…%) and Industry B (…%). Industry C accounts for about … of the market, while Industry

D consumes about …% of the polyethylene in Russia.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 42. Structure of consumption of polyethylene by industries in 2012

35%

37%

10%

8%

10% Industry A Industry B

Industry C Industry D

Others




121.3. Balance between production and consumption of

polyethylene

In the forecasted balance between production and consumption are used estimates of the

consumption of polyethylene and projections for increase in production.

Throughout the forecast horizon, 2013 – 2017, there is a positive balance, calculated as the

difference between production and consumption. The surplus on the market, as before, will

be exported, mainly to the countries of the Customs Union, where most purchases are in

made in Kazakhstan.

Table 1. Balance between production and consumption on the

polyethylene market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in

thousands of tons

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production … … … … … … … … … …

Consumption … … … … … … … … … …

Balance

(Production-

Consumption)

… … … … … … … … … …

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 47. Balance between production and consumption on the polyethylene

market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

20082009

20102011

20122013F

2014F2015F

2016F2017F

Consumption

Production




About IndexBox

"IndexBox" is one of the leading companies in the sphere of marketing consulting. We carry

out pieces of marketing research and consult on questions about strategic marketing.

• The "IndexBox" team has been working together for more than 7 years.

• The average experience of "IndexBox" specialists in the marketing sphere is 10

years.

• “IndexBox" employs 15 specialists in its research analytical department.

• The gathering of the researched information is controlled by 8 employees, all with

vast experience in field work. And who oversee more than 150 experienced

interviewers.

• Over 10 years, we have completed more than sixteen hundred projects, most of

which are focused on the consumer and industrial markets. The geography of the

research includes not only the territory of Russia, but also foreign markets.

• In total, more than 80,000 respondents have taken part in our research studies.

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Our clients are big Russian and foreign companies:




Marketing research

Our specialization - the study of consumer and industrial markets, segments of B2C and

B2B. Among the methods used: desk research, consumer surveys, expert surveys,

competitive analysis, sales audit, a wide range of qualitative market research products and

services. Our competitive advantage is the formation of special research techniques to the

tasks of each project. System planning and operational monitoring of the industry, created a

company that allows professionals to operate in IndexBox their work relevant and accurate

information.

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We are professionally engaged in developing business plans, feasibility studies, investment

memoranda, conduct financial analysis of enterprises and prepare analysis for transactions

M & A. Business plans developed by IndexBox, contain a complete financial model for the

further implementation of the project, all calculations are based on marketing information,

which is permanently collected and analyzed for over 7 years. Documents comply with the

standards of Russian and foreign banks, the projects have market feasibility and realistic

projections, and we provide assistance in finding an investor and financing, legal support.

Strategic Marketing

We develop strategic development for brands, products, separate business units and

industry. Generally, programs include product, pricing, marketing and communication

strategy. Projects in the field of strategic marketing are relevant to large enterprises,

financial and investment companies that are planning to expand its interests as well as

small companies that are thinking about business development.

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Consulting in development - is to develop the best options for use of the area. To do this,

our marketing agency, conducts research real estate market, analyzes the possible

construction, and estimates the market feasibility and economic benefits of investing in real

estate. Marketing agency IndexBox offers a range of professional services for the study of

the real estate market and the development of individual marketing concept of the facility.


Russia Polyethylene Market

Business

cubic meters

square meters

tons month

physical terms

previous year

total construction

russian polyethylene

physical terms