RTF Small / Rural Subcommitte e

RTF Small / Rural Subcommittee

Wednesday, September 18, 9am – 10:30am

Agenda

• Review of recently approved UES measures• Status of Schools Lighting and Barn Lights UES

measure development• Mobile Home Decommissioning• Revisit priority list for 2013 • Upcoming work plan items for 2014

Recently Approved UES Measures

• Review the UES design checklists for the measures approved between June 2013 and August 2013 RTF Meetings– June 18, 2013

• Commercial Grocery - Anti-sweat Heater Controls (small saver) – (updated at the September RTF meeting, will be reviewed at December subcom meeting)

– July 16, 2013• Commercial Showerheads (small saver)• Commercial Cooking – Combination Ovens (small saver)• Commercial Cooking – Hot Food Holding Cabinets (small saver)• Commercial Cooking – Fryers (small saver)• Commercial Cooking – Steamers (small saver)• Commercial Cooking – Convection Ovens (small saver)• Schools - Network Power Management (small saver)• Grocery - Display Case Motion Sensor (small saver)

– August 20, 2013• Residential - Advanced Power Strips (planning)• Residential - LEDs (proven)• Residential - Prescriptive Duct Sealing (planning)

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Status of Schools Lighting and Barn Lights UES measure development

• Selected by subcommittee as top priority for 2013 work plan at June 11, 2013 meeting

• Sent Task Order to select firms on July 31, 2013• Received bids in early August• Decided to separate Schools and Barn lights contracts based

on contractor feedback• Notified SBW of Schools Lighting contract award on 8/22/13• PECI Barn Lights contract awaiting final approval from this

subcommittee– Projected fee of $12,424. Slightly higher than $10k estimate.

• Received request from BPA to reconsider Schools Lighting UES Measures at end of August

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Status of Schools Lighting and Barn Lights UES measure development

[BPA presentation on BPA Nonresidential Lighting Program updates, as they pertain to schools in

Small/Rural utility territories]

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Mobile Home Decommissioning measure

• Selected by S/R subcommittee for part of 2013 work plan at the June 11, 2013 meeting

• RTF staff subsequently received requests to scope the feasibility of this measure and discuss with the S/R subcommittee before pursuing a contractor

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Mobile Home DecommissioningHistory• Pre 1976 – “Mobile Home” – structures did not need

to comply with building standards• 1976 – HUD standard: Federal standards on design,

construction, installation, and performance of homes: Mobile home >> “Manufactured Home”

• EE standards in the NW and Nationally– 1992 – 1995 Manufactured Homes Acquisition Program

(MAP).– 1995 – present: Super Good Cents, NEEM (MAP

specifications), Energy Star, Earth Advantage, Eco-rated

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Mobile Home DecommissioningRegional Program Findings• PNL 1995 – Impact Evaluation of Manufactured Housing

Acquisition Program– Billing analysis of pre-MAP (baseline) and MAP (efficient case) homes– Straight comparison of bills: 200 – 2,300 kWh/year savings– Regression analysis: 2,900 to 5,270 kWh/year, after controlling for size,

secondary fuels, and heat pump presence– Baseline homes:

• Were smaller• Used more supplemental fuel• Had more heat pumps

• Savings will depend on specifically what new home replaces specifically what old home.

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Mobile Home DecommissioningRegional Program Findings• Ecotope for Northwest Energy Efficient Manufactured Homes

and Oregon Energy Department, “Draft: Summary of NEEM Manufactured Home Field Data and Billing Analysis”.– Treatment group only. Baseline = simulation of sampled homes with

scaled down energy performance characteristics– 3,584 to 7,615 kWh/year

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Mobile Home DecommissioningRTF Analysis• Savings calculator for MH, ~2002

– 2,000 – 6,000 kWh/year from building shell • even assuming new home is larger than existing home

– More savings from upgraded HVAC equipment and MH EE specified equipment (e.g. lights, water heater)

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA• 321 MH sampled across the NW• Site audit and billing analysis• ~25% of MH are pre-HUD (1976). About half of these are pre-1970.• Observations

– MH have gotten a lot bigger (from 1,000 ft2 to 1,700 ft2)– Heat loss rates decreased dramatically (from 0.52 UA/ft2 to 0.17 UA/ft2)– Homes are tighter (16.5 ACH50 to 4.8 ACH50)– Electricity is the primary heating fuel in 2/3 to ¾ of MH, except in Montana

(17%)– About 10% of MH receive electric utility bill assistance– Energy consumption of pre-HUD and 1995-present HUD homes is

comparable: improved energy efficiency has balanced increase in home size.

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA, Additional analysis by RTF staff

Heating CZ 1

Heating CZ 2

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA, Additional analysis by RTF staff

Heating CZ 3

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA, Additional analysis by RTF staff

Heating CZ 1

Heating CZ 2

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA, Additional analysis by RTF staff

Heating CZ 3

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MH Decommissioning - Costs• Average MH Cost in 2012, PNW States

– Single Wide – $31K to $48K– Double Wide - $75K to $81K– Source: U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/mhs/xls/stavg12.xls

• Incremental cost of Energy Star +– Source: Washington State University Energy Program and Habitat for Humanity, “Cost

Implications of Retrofit vs. Replacement of Manufactured Housing“• http://www.energy.wsu.edu/Documents/RetrofitvsReplacementPNNLReport.pdf• Survey of manufacturers• Single wide - $5,500• Double wide - $6,400

– Source: RTF Energy Star and Eco-rated MH UES• Build-up cost estimates• $1,400 to $2,100

• Cost to decommission a mobile home:– Single-wide: $4,000, Double-wide: $6,000– ~30% cheaper if several MHs in same area are done at the same time– Asbestos: Even in older homes, it’s usually not an issue

• When it is, it can add $700 to $1000 to the cost. In the worst cases, it doubles the cost.

– Source: Interview with WA vendor

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MH Decommissioning – Remaining Useful Life

• RUL of existing MH: – Would these homes have been replaced naturally within the measure

lifetime?• This would affect measure cost considerably (full vs. incremental

cost)– Research required to determine the decay rate of older mobile homes

• U.S. Census Bureau data exists, but is difficult to navigate/access

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MH Decommissioning – Cost Effectiveness

PV Cost (2006$) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 5 Year

RUL 10 Year

RUL 15 Year

RUL $1,000 1.64 3.29 4.93 6.58 8.22 9.87 11.51 13.15 14.80 $6K $3K $2K$2,000 0.82 1.64 2.47 3.29 4.11 4.93 5.76 6.58 7.40 $11K $6K $5K$3,000 0.55 1.10 1.64 2.19 2.74 3.29 3.84 4.38 4.93 $17K $9K $7K$4,000 0.41 0.82 1.23 1.64 2.06 2.47 2.88 3.29 3.70 $23K $13K $9K$5,000 0.33 0.66 0.99 1.32 1.64 1.97 2.30 2.63 2.96 $29K $16K $11K

$10,000 0.16 0.33 0.49 0.66 0.82 0.99 1.15 1.32 1.48 $57K $31K $23K$15,000 0.11 0.22 0.33 0.44 0.55 0.66 0.77 0.88 0.99 $86K $47K $34K$20,000 0.08 0.16 0.25 0.33 0.41 0.49 0.58 0.66 0.74 $115K $63K $46K$25,000 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.26 0.33 0.39 0.46 0.53 0.59 $144K $79K $57K$30,000 0.05 0.11 0.16 0.22 0.27 0.33 0.38 0.44 0.49 $172K $94K $69K$35,000 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.42 $201K $110K $80K$40,000 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.37 $230K $126K $92K$45,000 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.29 0.33 $258K $142K $103K$50,000 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.30 $287K $157K $115K$55,000 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.27 $316K $173K $126K$60,000 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 $345K $189K $137K$65,000 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.23 $373K $204K $149K$70,000 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.21 $402K $220K $160K$75,000 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 $431K $236K $172K$80,000 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 $459K $252K $183K$85,000 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.17 $488K $267K $195K$90,000 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.16 $517K $283K $206K$95,000 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 $546K $299K $218K

Savings (kWh/year)Implied New Home Cost,

$1,000s

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MH Decommissioning – Cost EffectivenessNo natural replacement

PV Cost (2006$) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 5 Year

RUL 10 Year

RUL 15 Year

RUL $1,000 1.64 3.29 4.93 6.58 8.22 9.87 11.51 13.15 14.80 $6K $3K $2K$2,000 0.82 1.64 2.47 3.29 4.11 4.93 5.76 6.58 7.40 $11K $6K $5K$3,000 0.55 1.10 1.64 2.19 2.74 3.29 3.84 4.38 4.93 $17K $9K $7K$4,000 0.41 0.82 1.23 1.64 2.06 2.47 2.88 3.29 3.70 $23K $13K $9K$5,000 0.33 0.66 0.99 1.32 1.64 1.97 2.30 2.63 2.96 $29K $16K $11K

$10,000 0.16 0.33 0.49 0.66 0.82 0.99 1.15 1.32 1.48 $57K $31K $23K$15,000 0.11 0.22 0.33 0.44 0.55 0.66 0.77 0.88 0.99 $86K $47K $34K$20,000 0.08 0.16 0.25 0.33 0.41 0.49 0.58 0.66 0.74 $115K $63K $46K$25,000 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.26 0.33 0.39 0.46 0.53 0.59 $144K $79K $57K$30,000 0.05 0.11 0.16 0.22 0.27 0.33 0.38 0.44 0.49 $172K $94K $69K$35,000 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.42 $201K $110K $80K$40,000 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.37 $230K $126K $92K$45,000 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.29 0.33 $258K $142K $103K$50,000 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.30 $287K $157K $115K$55,000 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.27 $316K $173K $126K$60,000 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 $345K $189K $137K$65,000 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.23 $373K $204K $149K$70,000 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.21 $402K $220K $160K$75,000 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 $431K $236K $172K$80,000 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 $459K $252K $183K$85,000 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.17 $488K $267K $195K$90,000 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.16 $517K $283K $206K$95,000 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 $546K $299K $218K

Savings (kWh/year)Implied New Home Cost,

$1,000s

Single

Double

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MH Decommissioning – Cost EffectivenessWith natural replacement (RUL = 10 yrs)

PV Cost (2006$) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 5 Year

RUL 10 Year

RUL 15 Year

RUL $1,000 1.64 3.29 4.93 6.58 8.22 9.87 11.51 13.15 14.80 $6K $3K $2K$2,000 0.82 1.64 2.47 3.29 4.11 4.93 5.76 6.58 7.40 $11K $6K $5K$3,000 0.55 1.10 1.64 2.19 2.74 3.29 3.84 4.38 4.93 $17K $9K $7K$4,000 0.41 0.82 1.23 1.64 2.06 2.47 2.88 3.29 3.70 $23K $13K $9K$5,000 0.33 0.66 0.99 1.32 1.64 1.97 2.30 2.63 2.96 $29K $16K $11K

$10,000 0.16 0.33 0.49 0.66 0.82 0.99 1.15 1.32 1.48 $57K $31K $23K$15,000 0.11 0.22 0.33 0.44 0.55 0.66 0.77 0.88 0.99 $86K $47K $34K$20,000 0.08 0.16 0.25 0.33 0.41 0.49 0.58 0.66 0.74 $115K $63K $46K$25,000 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.26 0.33 0.39 0.46 0.53 0.59 $144K $79K $57K$30,000 0.05 0.11 0.16 0.22 0.27 0.33 0.38 0.44 0.49 $172K $94K $69K$35,000 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.42 $201K $110K $80K$40,000 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.37 $230K $126K $92K$45,000 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.29 0.33 $258K $142K $103K$50,000 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.30 $287K $157K $115K$55,000 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.27 $316K $173K $126K$60,000 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 $345K $189K $137K$65,000 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.23 $373K $204K $149K$70,000 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.21 $402K $220K $160K$75,000 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 $431K $236K $172K$80,000 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 $459K $252K $183K$85,000 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.17 $488K $267K $195K$90,000 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.16 $517K $283K $206K$95,000 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 $546K $299K $218K

Savings (kWh/year)Implied New Home Cost,

$1,000s

Single

Double

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MH Decommissioning - Making this measure work

• This measure would require significant funding support from other agencies

• Access to credit has been a large barrier to new MH purchasing– This measure would need to include considerable attention to

financing

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MH Decommissioning - Discussion• Should the S/R subcommittee pursue this measure?– If so, proposed scope:

• Planning UES measure– Measure assessment with the following components

» Savings – use high performance MH values» Cost – confirm scoping data compiled by RTF staff» Non-energy costs and benefits – identify and estimate

quantifiable, monetizable costs and benefits» RUL – Use U.S. Census Bureau or other data to estimate the

natural decay rate of older mobile homes.– Research plan

» Data collection requirements necessary to develop a proven UES or Standard Protocol

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2013 Work Plan Priorities

• Pursue Schools lighting UES measures?• Pursue Mobile Home Decommissioning

measure?• [see 2013 priority list]

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2014 Work Plan

• Current allocation in DRAFT workplan set at $40,000– May increase or decrease depending on scope

• Continue following on priority list of UES measures identified in 2013?

• Are there additional measures to consider?• Should finalize prior to December S/R meeting– RTF Work plan set to be final in November

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Back-up Slides

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA

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Mobile Home Decommissioning2012 RBSA

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RTF Analysis of RBSA Data

• EUI has gone down, but home size has gone up.

• Not much change in kWh from pre-HUD to 1995+ HUD.– For planning

purposed, the RTF MH EnergyStar and Eco-rated measure savings may suffice.

Vintage and Standard n

Weighted Average Normalized kWh

Weighted Average Normalized Size (sq ft)

Weighted Average Normalized Intensity (kWh/sq ft)

Heating Climate Zone 11975 and Older, Pre-HUD 34 14,839 964 15.4 1976-1994, HUD 64 16,284 1,298 12.5 1995 to Current, HUD 18 16,042 1,477 10.9 1990-1994, SGC or Natural Choice 15 14,066 1,475 9.5 1995 to Current, NEEM 7 12,984 1,693 7.7 2000 to Current, ENERGY STAR 10 13,354 1,552 8.6

Heating Climate Zone 21975 and Older, Pre-HUD 10 22,315 872 25.6 1976-1994, HUD 23 19,500 1,241 15.7 1995 to Current, HUD 4 22,572 1,729 13.1 1990-1994, SGC or Natural Choice 4 30,680 1,622 18.9 1995 to Current, NEEM 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!2000 to Current, ENERGY STAR 4 20,824 1,974 10.5

Heating Climate Zone 31975 and Older, Pre-HUD 2 20,051 1,129 17.8 1976-1994, HUD 3 28,878 1,270 22.7 1995 to Current, HUD 2 19,466 1,056 18.4 1990-1994, SGC or Natural Choice 3 20,511 1,336 15.4 1995 to Current, NEEM 1 20,958 1,387 15.1 2000 to Current, ENERGY STAR 3 13,142 1,365 9.6