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O’Neil Relocation Industry & Relocation Trends August 7, 2008 Ron Martin Regional Sales Manager- UniGroup, Inc.
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Page 1: Ron Martin

O’Neil RelocationIndustry & Relocation Trends

August 7, 2008Ron MartinRegional Sales Manager-UniGroup, Inc.

Page 2: Ron Martin

Agenda

UniGroup, Inc. Relocation & Industry Trends Surface Transportation Board / UniGroup

Pricing Model Direction - Operations Challenges

Energy – Fuel Van Operators/Drivers Economy

Page 3: Ron Martin

America’s largest van line system

Most recognized name in the moving industry for nearly 80 years

Specialist international forwarder with global footprint

Emerging leader in portable container storage and moving

Web based move management system to leverage uniform service, pricing and performance metrics from multiple providers

Niche insurance service provider for moving and storage industry

Equipment supply and leasing company for moving and storage industry

UniGroup, Inc.

Page 4: Ron Martin

UniGroup Inc.

Over $2 billion in revenues since 2005

Re

ven

ue

in U

SD

(billio

n)

Revenue Growth

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$2.16 billion

Page 5: Ron Martin

UniGroup Debt-to-Equity

• Strong balance sheet and cash reserves • Virtually debt-free

$756,000

$301,000,000

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

Mill

ions

UniGroup

2007

Debt, Net Equity

Page 6: Ron Martin

Unique Ownership Structure

Agents Retain Identities Typically family-owned

Representatives asShareholders UniGroup/UnitedVan Lines

18 agent Board of Directorsset corporate policy anddirection

Agents remain self-directed Compensation structure is best

in van line industry No ownership change since

company’s inception (1947)

Benefits Vested interest in local

community Consistent service delivery

Partnership between agents and van line headquarters

Customized, personal service Reinvestment in people,

equipment and facilities Stability

Page 7: Ron Martin

Network Advantages

Alliance Program – U.S. FootprintLeverages strength of UVL/MayflowerFewer peak season restrictionsUniform performance standards

Greater capacityOver 7,900 power units

(tractors – straight trucks) Commitment to

technology

Page 8: Ron Martin

1717

772323

121121

3030

1414

5858

2727

131388

3232 15151515

88

1717

2020

2222

99

2222

2121

1414

1616

1414

3131

99

1010

66

1919

2020

99

3434

2929

1212

2121

2929 11

1616

44

1414

8585

772525

33

4343

181877

33 11

UniGroup Alliance Network

North America’s largest household goods networkNorth America’s largest household goods network Combined coverage and capacity of 1,100 locationsCombined coverage and capacity of 1,100 locations

Page 9: Ron Martin

Recognition – UniGroup, Inc.

Information Week Magazine (2007)• Ranked No. 137 among top 500 U.S. companies utilizing

technology for process improvement

International Data Group CIO Magazine (2007)

• UniGroup Chief Information Officer ranked among top 100 for business and IT excellence

Transport Topics (2007)

• Ranked No. 13 among top 100 “For-Hire Carrier” list, up two positions from No. 15 in 2006.

Forbes Magazine (2007)• Forbes 200 – U. S. Largest Privately Held Companies

- Rank: 172

Page 10: Ron Martin

Trippel Survey & Research

’07 Relocation Program Managers’ Survey United Van Lines controlled largest share of

transportation agreements (65%) 2nd consecutive year

United Van Lines ranked “#1” when relocation managers were asked:

Whether they would “recommend their current carrier” Which carrier has “greatest overall quality service”

2nd consecutive year How satisfied they were with their carrier’s “ability to meet

their needs” Which carrier most often “added to approved carrier list”

41

Page 11: Ron Martin

“Best in Class”

Logistics Management Magazine’s 24th Annual “Quest for Quality Survey” Two of three van lines are UniGroup companies –

United and Mayflower Recognized as household goods and high-value

product service supplier Measurement

On-time performance Value Information Technology Customer Service Equipment

Page 12: Ron Martin

United Van Lines Migration Study

Result States in Great Lakes region showed largest outbound

trend Ranked No. 1 Michigan (67.8%) once again captured top

outbound spot

California (50.8%) saw its lowest outbound percentage in five years

Page 13: Ron Martin

Integrity - Responsibility

Assists consumers who fall victim with “disreputable/rogue movers”

Illegally holding household goods “hostage” until additional unsupported charges are paid

Internet creating avenue for rogue mover activity

U.S. DOT cites nearly 4,000 move-related scam reports per year

Offers Connection for legal assistance

Nationwide network of legal professionals

www.moverescue.com or (800) 832-1773

Page 14: Ron Martin

Labor Policy

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.1

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.5

6.4

6.0

5.6

5.3

4.7

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Service for unwanted items before move

Information on destination

Contact to arrange services at new community

Contact to arrange services at new home

Guaranteed 60-minute delivery window

Online tracking information

Guaranteed 60-minute load window

Unpacking Service

Simple pricing format

Packing Service

Dedicated representative

Service that assesses damages

Timely damage resolution

Guaranteed delivery date

Guaranteed pick up date

Guaranteed price

Professionally trained / safe crews

What’s Important to What’s Important to Customers?Customers?

Page 15: Ron Martin

Labor Policy

Mandatory background checks on all “new” production personnel Value customer personal safety - safeguard

property Rollout with validation number 5-Star Check

Validate SSN Check against National Criminal

and Felony registers 1-3 day processing, valid three years

Instant Check – valid 10 days Validate SSN Check against National Criminal register

Page 16: Ron Martin

InnovationGPS Tracking Systems

Real-time communication link between United Van Lines agents UniGroup Headquarters Van operators

Last-minute changes and urgent shipments processed easily

Street-level mapping Determine exact van location Motion detection on trailers

Smart Phones – Van Operators

32

Page 17: Ron Martin

“Enhanced” GPS Tracking Systems

Route Tracking

Page 18: Ron Martin

“Enhanced” GPS Tracking Systems

Page 19: Ron Martin

“Enhanced” GPS Tracking Systems

Page 20: Ron Martin

“Enhanced” GPS Tracking Systems

Page 21: Ron Martin

UniGroup’s “Full-Service” Container

ObjectivesReduce underlying “core business” costsProgram built where entire agency system

will benefitReduce peak season “lease” trailer

requirementswooden containers

Create new marketReduce cargo claims

Page 22: Ron Martin

UniGroup’s “Full-Service” Container

Dimensions (outside) Length 102” Width 84” Height 97”

Cubic capacity = 450 cubic feet Empty weight = 1,200 lbs. Containers “stackable” – 3 high Walls – fiberglass with reinforced plywood

floors Cargo control – logistics track

Page 23: Ron Martin

UniGroup’s “Full-Service” Container

Convenient One price – all inclusive

Transportation Load / Unload Pack / Unpack Valuation Debris removal

Security Load / Lock / Seal Certified / Trained / Drug Tested Labor Reduced claims and missing items

Page 24: Ron Martin

UniGroup’s “Full Service” Container

Customer FeaturesNo DrivingNo LiftingNo enlisting family and friendsLarger and stronger containerExclusive useDay certain pickup/deliveryHigh security storage facility

Page 25: Ron Martin

New Direction - Pricing

New World - In its recent decision, U.S. Surface Transportation

Board withdrew approval of ratemaking bureaus to collectively set transportation rates

Includes Household Goods Carriers Bureau that formerly set rates for moving & storage industry

Effective January 1, 2008 “all” household goods carriers required to establish carrier specific pricing structures

Independent of other van lines

Page 26: Ron Martin

InnovationNew Pricing Structure

STB UVL1 – January 1, 2008 3-digit ZIP-to-ZIP pricing structure

Electronic format Tariff Reduction

60% reduction in base tariff 40% reduction storage-in-transit and SIT pickup/delivery

Included in transportation rates/charges Insurance Related Surcharge Origin/Destination Service Charge Fuel Adjustment (up to $3.00/gallon) Mini warehouse Bulky item

5

Page 27: Ron Martin

Invoice AppearanceComparison

HGB Tariff 400-N - 3,760 lbs. 1,009 miles

Transportation = $4,995.55 Full Packing = 2,081.91 Origin Svc. Chg. = 122.95 Dest. Svc. Chg. = 101.52

Sub Total = $7,301.93 Less Disc. 62.4% 4,556.40

Sub Total = $2,745.52

Fuel Surchg 10.0% = 187.83 Ins. Rel. Surchg. 4%= 75.13

Total = $3,008.48

STB Tariff UVL1 – 3,760 lbs. 1,009 miles

Transportation* = $2,259.00 Full Packing = 809.38

Sub Total** = $3,068.38 Fuel Surchg*** = 110..38

Total = $3,178.76****

*Includes transportation, origin/destination service charge and insurance related surcharge** Applied 6.0% down as applicable price adjustment based on transportation agreement***Fuel as rate per mile 1,009 miles @ .1094 per miles****Includes 3.4% increase effective 1/1/08

Page 28: Ron Martin

Questions & Answers

Will new pricing program increase client cost? “Price-neutral” objective

Analysis of over 800,000 shipments indicates marginal increase over industry’s HGB Tariff 400-N pricing

UVL took 3.4% increase effective December 31, 2007 based on industry’s “General Price Adjustment” formula

Annual cost index review and adjustment

Real savings – client and UVL Efficiencies gained from simplified pricing system

Time Understanding Reduced complexity

Page 29: Ron Martin

Questions & Answers

Will clients be economically disadvantaged moving to new pricing program? NO, opposite is true!! HGB Tariff 400-N - “Tariff of Compromise”

Industry pricing historically controlled by industry competitors Not specific to individual client Inefficient pricing mechanism

Redundant tariff items “Exorbitant” discounts “Annoying” invoice line items

Advent of zip-zone pricing Pricing based on costs between geographic areas

Fair and equitable approach to pricing Common sense program

Page 30: Ron Martin

Am. Moving & Storage Association

Industry Facts - 8,300 companies providing moving/storage

services – van lines, independent/van line agents and forwarders

Employs 172,000 people nationwide47.8% of companies employ 5 people or less8.5% of companies employ 100 people or more

Operates fleet (equipment) 50,000 units (32,000 tractors/18,000 straight trucks) regulated by U.S. Dept. of Transportation

Page 31: Ron Martin

Am. Moving & Storage Association

Industry Facts (continued)Americans – who move = 13.0%

40 million (17 million households) @ 2.34 people per household (’05 US Census)

19.0% move to different state (interstate) = 7.6 million

Average cost = $4,200.00 Average weight = 7,400 lbs.Average distance = 1, 225 milesMoves without claim = 80.0% (4:5 shipments)

Page 32: Ron Martin

Industry ChallengesVolume - All Business Lines

$2,100,000

$2,200,000

$2,300,000

$2,400,000

$2,500,000

$2,600,000

$2,700,000

Reve

nue

(000

s)

Industry $2,498,926 $2,652,721 $2,599,186 $2,439,697 $2,291,626

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Annual HHG Revenues (2003-2007)

Transportation Revenue for Interstate HHG MovesBetween ‘06 and ‘07 Reduced Revenue –6.1%.

Source: AMSA – Monthly Market Study – All Processed Revenue

Page 33: Ron Martin

Industry ChallengesCorporate Relocations

Declining National Account Market

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000

235,000

240,000

245,000

250,000

255,000

Shi

pmen

ts

Shipments 227,111 239,041 248,577 246,093 230,361

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Industry National Account Shipments Down ~ 6.4% Between ’06 and ‘07

Source: AMSA – Monthly Market Study – All Processed Revenue

Page 34: Ron Martin

Industry ChallengesCorporate Revenue

$730,000

$740,000

$750,000

$760,000

$770,000

$780,000

$790,000

$800,000

$810,000

$820,000

$830,000

Reve

nue

(000

s)

Industry $764,971 $793,321 $821,470 $807,188 $782,963

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Annual HHG Revenues (2003-2007)

Transportation Revenue for Interstate HHG MovesBetween ‘06 and ‘07 Reduced Revenue –3.0%.

Source: AMSA – Monthly Market Study – All Processed Revenue

Page 35: Ron Martin

UniGroup, Inc.Business Volume YTD July 10, 2008

AS OF: 7/10/08

MONTH 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008

JAN $45,866,108 $42,745,691 $45,866,108 $42,745,691 $20,023,045 $20,388,558 $20,023,045 $20,388,558FEB $42,949,798 $39,219,833 $88,815,906 $81,965,524 $19,771,545 $21,354,693 $39,794,590 $41,743,251MAR $52,887,714 $44,563,976 $141,703,620 $126,529,500 $24,322,131 $21,768,954 $64,116,721 $63,512,205APR $50,802,430 $46,728,880 $192,506,050 $173,258,380 $21,474,803 $21,418,956 $85,591,524 $84,931,161MAY $73,062,705 $72,513,926 $265,568,755 $245,772,306 $22,956,188 $22,010,740 $108,547,712 $106,941,901JUN $111,289,685 $103,047,817 $376,858,440 $348,820,123 $23,723,351 $21,042,543 $132,271,063 $127,984,444JUL $74,565,355 $77,250,289 $451,423,795 $426,070,412 $10,823,495 $10,514,156 $143,094,558 $138,498,600AUG $11,040,419 $7,714,057 $462,464,214 $433,784,469 $913,346 $725,904 $144,007,904 $139,224,504SEP $1,415,613 $391,053 $463,879,827 $434,175,522 $313,731 $245,533 $144,321,635 $139,470,037OCT $701,975 $58,696 $464,581,802 $434,234,218 $158,961 $116,281 $144,480,596 $139,586,318NOV $408,067 $14,523 $464,989,869 $434,248,741 $209,962 $43,804 $144,690,558 $139,630,122DEC $259,485 $8,031 $465,249,354 $434,256,772 $37,102 $22,781 $144,727,660 $139,652,903

MONTH 2007 2008 2007 2008 HHGS SPEC PROD HHGS SPEC PROD

MONTH TOTAL TOTAL

JAN -4.2% -4.2%

BY MONTH CUMULATIVE

HOUSEHOLD GOODS

*Business Volume Based on Registration Statistics

Page 36: Ron Martin

UniGroup Seasonality - Relocations

$42,745,691$39,219,833$44,563,976$46,728,880

$72,513,926

$103,047,817

$77,250,289

$0

$25,000,000

$50,000,000

$75,000,000

$100,000,000

$125,000,000

Revenue

2008

January February March April May June July

Page 37: Ron Martin

20

*ERC ’07 Transfer Volume & Cost Survey – Mobility Magazine September ’07

Relocation Trends

Reluctance to Relocate

5%

3%

11%

23%

29%

55%

63%

66%

71%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Slowed real estate appreciation

High housing costs

EE/family reluctance to move

High cost-of-living areas

Spouse reluctance to leave his/her job

Undesirable areas

Less than adequate relocation policy

Employee satisfaction with position

Other

Page 38: Ron Martin

20

Relocation Trends

Average Relocation Component Costs 2004 2005 2006

Loss-on-sale assistance $11,551 $9,331 $15,255

Household goods transportation $10,387 $9,514 $10,342

Purchase closing costs $7,944 $7,756 $8,818

Federal Tax Liability $8,767 $6,737 $7,707

Preferential rate mortgage $4,581 $6,048 $6,388

Bonuses/incentives employee home sale $6,936 $5,900 $6,764

Misc. expense allowance $5,457 $5,092 $4,457

Temporary living $5,492 $4,993 $4,882

Duplicate housing assistance $3,079 $2,986 $3,030

Home-finding trips $2,136 $1,828 $1,836

Spouse employment assistance $1,555 $1,404 $1,520

Travel/lodging expenses $1,384 $1,343 $1,246

*ERC ’07 Transfer Volume & Cost Survey – Mobility Magazine September ’07

Page 39: Ron Martin

Relocation Trends -Policy Type

64%

11%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pe

rce

nt

of

Org

an

iza

tio

ns

Multiple/TieredPolicies

Menu-driven/Cafeteria-

style Policy

One Policy

Source: Worldwide ERC, 2007 New Hire Survey

Page 40: Ron Martin

Relocation Trends - Shipment of Household Goods

Percentage of Organizations Who Provide Household Goods Relocation for Employees

Entry Level

74%

Experienced

98%

Executive Level

98%

Single Policy

98%Single Policy: Based on 40 organizations with one policy (not menu-drive) that do not

provide only a lump sum to cover the entire move.)

Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple responses.

Source: Worldwide ERC, 2007 New Hire Survey

Page 41: Ron Martin

Fast Growing Jobs

Fastest Growing Jobs – 2004-2014

OccupationNew

OpeningsPercent of

Growth

Network Systems, Data Communications Analyst

126,000 55%

Medical Assistants 202,000 52%

Physician Assistants 31,000 50%

Computer Software Engineers 222,000 48%

Physical Therapist Assistants 26,000 44%

Computer Software Engineers 146,000 43%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Page 42: Ron Martin

Relocation Trends-ERC/Runzheimer

National Survey Data – Household Goods 57% of companies contract directly with van lines 85% do not impose weight restrictions

Companies with weight restrictions have 18,000 pounds as most common limit

83% provide full replacement protection (valuation) 92% offer storage-in-transit

30 days (47%) and 60 days (40%) as most common time frames 60 days for homeowners and 30 days for renters

100% of companies include packing 90% include for unpacking 77% of companies include one or more autos

Two autos most typically covered

Source: Employee Relocation Council & Runzheimer Reports

Page 43: Ron Martin

Proprietary and Confidential Maritz Inc.

Q1: How did you look for moving companies who could meet your needs?(multiple responses allowed)

Base: All Respondents, n=258, Full-Service moves only, n=166

Where Consumers Look For Movers (Residential)

The Internet and past experiences are key reference points for choosing a moving company

Phone book continues to decline

All Respondents Full-service moves only

7%

18%

20%

23%

20%

34%

39%

3%

6%

16%

16%

18%

24%

26%

43%

45%

Bank, mortgage or title company recommended

Realtor recommended

Word-of-mouth

Advertising

Saw in neighborhood

Phone book

Neighbor, friend or relative recommended

Past experience / used before

Internet search

33%

52%

Page 44: Ron Martin

Full-Service Moving Companies Considered and Used

United Van Lines considered, quoted and used most often Mayflower comparable Allied; conversion from quote to

purchase slightly higher than both UVL and Allied

Proprietary and Confidential Maritz Inc.

S6: What company did you primarily use for your move?Q2: Please check the names of the moving companies you considered in addition to your choice of (answer from primary mover).Q3: Please check the names of the moving companies from which you received a quote.

Base: All Full-Service Respondents, n = 166

63

52 52

47

42

30 29

50

37 3634

32

19

2322

13 13

8 8

12

18

United Van LinesMayflower TransitAllied Van Lines Atlas Van Lines North AmericanGlobal Van LinesTwo Men and a Truck

% Considering

% Quoted

% Used

79% Conversion from Consideration to Quote

71%71%

49%49%

69%69%

36%36%

72%72%

38%38%

76%76%

25%25%63%63%

42%42%

79%79%

52%52%

44% from Quote to Usage

Page 45: Ron Martin

Proprietary and Confidential Maritz Inc.

Q10: How did you researchor look for moving companies who would meet your corporate needs?Note: Multiple responses allowed

Base: All Respondents, n = 250

50%Employee input

28%

32%

34%

36%

38%

42%

44%

49%

49%

50%

Phone book (Yellow or White Pages)

Direct mail

Formal RFI - Request for Information

Corporate preferred provider list

Word-of-mouth

Presentation by moving companies

Recommendation of business colleague

Internet search

Competitive bidding process

Past experience / used before

National Account Decision Makers

How corporate America selects a van line …

Page 46: Ron Martin

Deciding Factors For National Account Clients

Consistency of quality service, guaranteed price and dates, and professional crews

Brand name and national moving company are least important factors

Proprietary and Confidential Maritz Inc.

23 19 18 20 17 19 14 13 15 18 18 13 12 13 10 11 11 12 11 15

1614 20 16

11 1314 10 6

9 98 10 8

5 5 8 6 66

56

54

4 64 4

84

811

12

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T

MostImportant

MoreImportant

SomewhatImportant

Base: All Respondents, n = 250

A.Quality service consistency

B.Guaranteed price

C.Guaranteed pick-up and delivery dates

D.Professionally trained crews

E.Our company gets a good value for the cost

F.Pricing was clear and easy to understand

G.Past experience with the moving company

H.Timely resolution of employee claims

I.Recommendations from a trusted source

J.Repair and replacement coverage

K. Financial stability of the moving company

L.Pricing components were easily broken out

M.Advanced technology services

N.Background checks for all labor provided

O.Fair resolution of employee claims

P.Ability to use storage units with moves

Q.Ability to pick up items at several places

R.Wanted a national moving company

S.Corporate diversity policies and diverse culture

T. Wanted a brand name moving company

10 8 10 10 8 13 14 15 1812

18 17 14 17 16 21 20 20 20 185 7 5 7

7 11 67

1010 11 14 10 10

14 14 17 1511

4 54 4 4

8 6 8 14

7

44 4 5 7 5 6

4

LeastImportant

LessImportant

SomewhatUnimportant

Mean Score: 4.62 4.56 4.48 4.37 4.28 4.20 4.10 4.00 3.98 3.97 3.96 3.88 3.88 3.86 3.76 3.71 3.68 3.59 3.57 3.54Mean Score: 4.62 4.56 4.48 4.37 4.28 4.20 4.10 4.00 3.98 3.97 3.96 3.88 3.88 3.86 3.76 3.71 3.68 3.59 3.57 3.54

Q40a-t: The following is a list of criteria for choosing a moving company. Please the one most important and the one least important.Note: Multiple responses allowed for Q4a-p. Mean based on 5 point scale.

Base: All Respondents, n = 250

Page 47: Ron Martin

Proprietary and Confidential Maritz Inc.

Technology up-sells are strongest new services among national account respondents

Debris removal and maid service are also among popular options

48%

48%

32%

29%

26%

26%

25%

14%

Computer Installation

Home Electronic Installation

Clutter and debris removal from old home

Maid service at old home

Return visit to reposition furniture

Bar code scanning

GPS Truck tracking

Interest free 12 month payment deferral

Q130: Which of the following services would you like to see offered to further complement future employee moves?

Base: All Respondents, n = 250

What National Account Clients Want Added …

Page 48: Ron Martin

ConnectionStraight Talk Gold/ Flagship

Protection $340 Claims Assist $165 Geek Squad PC Setup

$130Home Theater Setup

$200 Delay Payment Destination Connection Date Change Destination Waiting Time

Value $1,000+Price $ 545

Includes $25,000Additional Coverage

EssentialStraight Talk Gold/ Flagship

Protection $340

Claims Assist $165 Destination Connection Date Change

Value $540+

Price $195

Includes $5,000

Additional Coverage

DestinationStraight Talk Gold/ Flagship

Protection $340 Claims Assist $165 Geek Squad

PC Setup $130

Destination Connection Destination Waiting Time Date Change

Value $700+Price $295

Includes $10,000

Additional Coverage

EntertainmentStraight Talk Gold/ Flagship

Protection $340 Claims Assist $165 Geek Squad

Home Theater Setup

$200 Delay Payment Destination Connection Destination Waiting Time Date Change

Value $850+Price $395

Includes $25,000

Additional Coverage

ProtectionStraight Talk Gold/ Flagship

Protection $340 Claims Assist $165 Destination Debris Pickup

$165 Delay Payment Destination Connection Destination Waiting Time Date Change

Value $850+Price $395

Includes $25,000Additional Coverage

TechnologyStraight Talk Gold/ Flagship

Protection $340 Claims Assist $165 Geek Squad PC with

Networking Setup $225 Delay Payment Destination Connection Destination Waiting Time Date Change

Value $930+Price $445

Includes $25,000Additional Coverage

PremiumStraight Talk Gold/ Flagship

Protection $340 Claims Assist $165 Geek Squad PC Setup w/ Networking

$225Home Theater Setup

$200 Delay Payment Destination Connection Destination Waiting Time Date Change

Value $1,300+Price $ 795

Includes $30,000Additional Coverage

Value-Add Options

Page 49: Ron Martin

ATA Van Operator/DriverShortage

National shortage of 20,000 drivers Current demographic trends predict driver shortage

to increase 111,000 drivers by 2014, if labor force continues to grow at slow pace

Fueled by two events “Baby boomers” starting to retire (219,000

drivers - 55 years and older) Increase freight tonnage 30.0%

(914 billion tons) by 2018 Lack of drivers to move freight, more

then any other challenge, could bring U.S. economic growth to a halt

Staple commodities for human consumption Price of bread, milk, etc.

Page 50: Ron Martin

Cost Driver - Diesel Fuel vs. Gasoline History

7/14/08 7/21/08 7/28/08 Change week ago* Change year ago

U.S. $4.764 $4.718 $4.603 -$.115 $1.717

 

*Energy Information Agency - DOE

Page 51: Ron Martin

What Are We Paying For?* Diesel Fuel vs. Gasoline

*Energy Information Agency - DOE

Page 52: Ron Martin

Fuel Statistics

Am. Transport Association – March 12, 2008 2nd highest cost after driver wages

Some carriers fuel expense surpasses cost of labor Potential to create ripple effect on U.S. economy

High truck fuel prices increase “individual” product costs 80.0% US communities depend on “trucks” to deliver goods

Trucks consume 53.9 billion gallons each year 39 billion gallons (73.0%) is diesel

One-penny increase in dieselprice creates additional $391 million in costs

42 gallons of oil in “barrel” yields: Canada is U.S. top “import” oil producer (16.0%)

Page 53: Ron Martin

U.S. Diesel Prices – Energy Information Agency

$0.00

$0.40

$0.80

$1.20

$1.60

$2.00

$2.40

$2.80

$3.20

$3.60

$4.00

$4.40

$4.80

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Pri

ce P

er M

on

th

Crude Oil

On-Highway Diesel

WholesaleDiesel

Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2008

History Projections

Page 54: Ron Martin

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Global supply uncertainties, combined with significant demand growth in China, the Middle East, and Latin America expected to continue to pressure oil markets

Retail diesel fuel prices, which averaged $2.88 in 2007, are projected to average $4.35 per gallon in 2008 and $4.48 per gallon in 2009. Higher prices reflect strength in diesel demand,

particularly in emerging markets Oil market remains tight, evidenced by:

Rising prices, low surplus production capacity, and concern that global supply growth may not keep pace with demand

Energy Information Agency – July 8, 2008

Page 55: Ron Martin

Annual Existing-Home Sales

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 f

Exuberance Over

Source: National Association of Realtors

Page 56: Ron Martin

National Foreclosure Activity

July 25, 2008 – RealtyTrac® “Q2 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™” 739,714 U.S. properties foreclosure filings

14% increase from the previous quarter 121% increase from the second quarter of

2007 One in every 171 U.S. households received

foreclosure filing during quarter California

202,599 properties foreclosed during second quarter Highest total among U.S. states (one in every 65 households)

Nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate Foreclosure activity increased 19% from previous quarter Nearly three times level reported in second quarter of 2007

Page 57: Ron Martin

National Foreclosure Activity

Source: RealtyTrac®

Page 58: Ron Martin

GDP Growth – Percent Annualized

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

20

00

- Q

1

20

00

- Q

3

20

01

- Q

1

20

01

- Q

3

20

02

- Q

1

20

02

- Q

3

20

03

- Q

1

20

03

- Q

3

20

04

- Q

1

20

04

- Q

3

20

05

- Q

1

20

05

- Q

3

20

06

- Q

1

20

06

- Q

3

20

07

- Q

1

20

07

- Q

3

20

08

- Q

1 f

20

08

- Q

3 f

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 59: Ron Martin

Corporate Profits

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,0002

00

0 -

Q1

20

00

- Q

3

20

01

- Q

1

20

01

- Q

3

20

02

- Q

1

20

02

- Q

3

20

03

- Q

1

20

03

- Q

3

20

04

- Q

1

20

04

- Q

3

20

05

- Q

1

20

05

- Q

3

20

06

- Q

1

20

06

- Q

3

20

07

- Q

1

20

07

- Q

3

$ bi

llion

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 60: Ron Martin

Stock Market – S&P Index

800

1000

1200

1400

16002

00

0 -

Ja

n

20

00

- J

ul

20

01

- J

an

20

01

- J

ul

20

02

- J

an

20

02

- J

ul

20

03

- J

an

20

03

- J

ul

20

04

- J

an

20

04

- J

ul

20

05

- J

an

20

05

- J

ul

20

06

- J

an

20

06

- J

ul

20

07

- J

an

20

07

- J

ul

20

08

- J

an

Source: NYSE

Page 61: Ron Martin

Business Spending – Gross Domestic Product

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,5002

00

0 -

Q1

20

01

- Q

1

20

02

- Q

1

20

03

- Q

1

20

04

- Q

1

20

05

- Q

1

20

06

- Q

1

20

07

- Q

1

GDP

Page 62: Ron Martin

Monetary Policy Report July 15, 2008

After having posted robust gains in middle ‘07: Real business fixed investment

lost some steam in 4th quarter Eked small advance in 1st quarter of 2008

Economic and financial conditions that influence capital spending deteriorated appreciably late last year and early this year: Business sales slowed (cars/technology) Corporate profits fell (stock market results) Credit conditions for borrowers tightened Heightened concern about economic outlook has

caused firms to postpone/abandon plans for capital expansion

Page 63: Ron Martin

Consumer Spending

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

20

00

- Q

1

20

01

- Q

1

20

02

- Q

1

20

03

- Q

1

20

04

- Q

1

20

05

- Q

1

20

06

- Q

1

20

07

- Q

1

20

08

- Q

1 f

% year-over-year growth rate

The growth rate of consumer spending slowed some in the first half of 2008 from its solid pace in the second half of 2007.

Page 64: Ron Martin

Questions

Discussion Topics What “value added” services would be helpful to

you and for your transferees beyond what UniGroup has identified?

Containers as a mode of transportation for household goods movements, do see value and would your organization consider using containers to transfer your employees?

What do you see as the future of relocation and where do you see the movement of household goods in the picture?

Page 65: Ron Martin

Questions

Discussion Topics Where do you see economy going? Will November

’08 election positively impact U.S. economic environment?

Will pressure from “price at the pump” continue to hinder business expansion?

Will your company expand or constrict hiring in ’08?...in ’09?

How can we (O’Neil Relocation/UniGroup) improve our performance with and for your company?

Page 66: Ron Martin

August 7, 2008Ron MartinRegional Sales Manager–UniGroup, Inc.

O’Neil RelocationIndustry & Relocation Trends

Page 67: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 68: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 69: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 70: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 71: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 72: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 73: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 74: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 75: Ron Martin

Scariest Road in the World

Page 76: Ron Martin

August 7, 2008Ron MartinRegional Sales Manager–UniGroup, Inc.

O’Neil RelocationIndustry & Relocation Trends