Richard Yamarone Bloomberg Economic BRIEF

Economic Indicators to Watch

The Disturbing Economic Tea LeavesSan Marcos, TX

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Richard YamaroneBloomberg Economic BRIEF

Author of “The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators”

Richard Yamarone, [email protected], TEL: 212-617-8737 Twitter: @Yamarone

Richard Yamarone, [email protected], TEL: 212-617-8737

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…It’s All About Jobs


Economy Isn’t Advancing Fast Enough to Engender Job Creation

'85IIIIIIV'86IIIIIIV'87IIIIIIV'88IIIIIIV'89IIIIIIV'90IIIIIIV'91IIIIIIV'92IIIIIIV'93IIIIIIV'94IIIIIIV'95IIIIIIV'96IIIIIIV'97IIIIIIV'98IIIIIIV'99IIIIIIV'00IIIIIIV'01IIIIIIV'02IIIIIIV'03IIIIIIV'04IIIIIIV'05IIIIIIV'06IIIIIIV'07IIIIIIV'08IIIIIIV'09IIIIIIV'10IIIIIIV'11IIIIIIV'12IIIIIIV'13-2400

-2000

-1600

-1200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1200

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Real GDP

Series1 GDP (rhs)

Payrolls ('000) GDP YOY%

Source: BEA, BLS NFP T <Index>, GDP CYOY <Index>


Economy Operating Well Below its Potential

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015$5,500

$6,500

$7,500

$8,500

$9,500

$10,500

$11,500

$12,500

$13,500

$14,500

Potential GDP

Real GDP

Real GDP (Blns) vs. Real Potential GDP (Blns)

Source: BEA, CBO, Bloomberg

CBOPGDPR <Index>, GDP CHWG <Index>


Employment To Be a Slow Train Coming

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 6790

92

94

96

98

100

102

'73 - '75

1980

'81 - '82

'90 - '91

2001

'07 - current

Nonfarm Payroll Creation From Onset of Recession

Source: BLS, NBER, Bloomberg Months


Employment To Be a Slow Train Coming -- II

peak-to-trough % jobs lost

Recession Date (months) total jobs lost (millions) months to job restoration peak-to-trough

Period 1 1948-49 11 2.34 22 5.17

1953-54 10 1.71 23 3.33

1957-58 8 2.22 20 4.17

1960-61 10 1.19 20 2.16

1969-70 11 1.04 18 1.46

1973-75 16 2.17 19 2.70

1980 6 1.16 10 1.20

1981-82 16 2.84 28 3.09

AVG: 11 1.83 20 2.91

Period 2 1990-91 8 1.62 32 1.40

2001 8 2.71 48 2.04

AVG: 8 2.16 40 1.72

Period 3 2007-09 (current) 18 8.31 ? 6.03


Hiring not Exactly Brisk

Construction

Mining & Logging

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Information

Financial

Professional

Temporary

Education

Healthcare

Leisure/Hospitality

Others Services

Government

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

282

190

507

303

700

321

3

-37

148

1,918

706

268

990

1,173173

-622

Jobs Created Since Great Recession Trough*, in thousands

Source: BLS *February 2010


Trusted Street Indicator Signals Slower Activity

1987QIIQIIIQIV1988QIIQIIIQIV1989QIIQIIIQIV1990QIIQIIIQIV1991QIIQIIIQIV1992QIIQIIIQIV1993QIIQIIIQIV1994QIIQIIIQIV1995QIIQIIIQIV1996QIIQIIIQIV1997QIIQIIIQIV1998QIIQIIIQIV1999QIIQIIIQIV2000QIIQIIIQIV2001QIIQIIIQIV2002QIIQIIIQIV2003QIIQIIIQIV2004QIIQIIIQIV2005QIIQIIIQIV2006QIIQIIIQIV2007QIIQIIIQIV2008QIIQIIIQIV2009QIIQIIIQIV2010QIIQIIIQIV2011QIIQIIIQIV2012QIIQIIIQIV0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Real GDP (Y/Y%) vs. Philly Fed Index

GDP (rhs)

Philly Fed (lhs)

Philly Fed GDP

Source: FRB Philadelphia, BEA OUTFGAF <Index>, GDP CYOY <Index>


Economy Set for An ‘About-Face’

'85QIIQIIIQIV'86QIIQIIIQIV'87QIIQIIIQIV'88QIIQIIIQIV'89QIIQIIIQIV'90QIIQIIIQIV'91QIIQIIIQIV'92QIIQIIIQIV'93QIIQIIIQIV'94QIIQIIIQIV'95QIIQIIIQIV'96QIIQIIIQIV'97QIIQIIIQIV'98QIIQIIIQIV'99QIIQIIIQIV'00QIIQIIIQIV'01QIIQIIIQIV'02QIIQIIIQIV'03QIIQIIIQIV'04QIIQIIIQIV'05QIIQIIIQIV'06QIIQIIIQIV'07QIIQIIIQIV'08QIIQIIIQIV'09QIIQIIIQIV'10QIIQIIIQIV'11QIIQIIIQIV'12QIIQIIIQIV-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-2024681012

Leading Economic Indicators (Y/Y%) vs. Real GDP Growth (Y/Y%)

GDP (lhs)

LEI (rhs)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board

GDP CYOY <Index> <GO>, LEI TOTL <Index> <GO>


If GDP Dips to 2.0% -- It’s Recession Time

1948QIIQIIIQIV1949QIIQIIIQIV1950QIIQIIIQIV1951QIIQIIIQIV1952QIIQIIIQIV1953QIIQIIIQIV1954QIIQIIIQIV1955QIIQIIIQIV1956QIIQIIIQIV1957QIIQIIIQIV1958QIIQIIIQIV1959QIIQIIIQIV1960QIIQIIIQIV1961QIIQIIIQIV1962QIIQIIIQIV1963QIIQIIIQIV1964QIIQIIIQIV1965QIIQIIIQIV1966QIIQIIIQIV1967QIIQIIIQIV1968QIIQIIIQIV1969QIIQIIIQIV1970QIIQIIIQIV1971QIIQIIIQIV1972QIIQIIIQIV1973QIIQIIIQIV1974QIIQIIIQIV1975QIIQIIIQIV1976QIIQIIIQIV1977QIIQIIIQIV1978QIIQIIIQIV1979QIIQIIIQIV1980QIIQIIIQIV1981QIIQIIIQIV1982QIIQIIIQIV1983QIIQIIIQIV1984QIIQIIIQIV1985QIIQIIIQIV1986QIIQIIIQIV1987QIIQIIIQIV1988QIIQIIIQIV1989QIIQIIIQIV1990QIIQIIIQIV1991QIIQIIIQIV1992QIIQIIIQIV1993QIIQIIIQIV1994QIIQIIIQIV1995QIIQIIIQIV1996QIIQIIIQIV1997QIIQIIIQIV1998QIIQIIIQIV1999QIIQIIIQIV2000QIIQIIIQIV2001QIIQIIIQIV2002QIIQIIIQIV2003QIIQIIIQIV2004QIIQIIIQIV2005QIIQIIIQIV2006QIIQIIIQIV2007QIIQIIIQIV2008QIIQIIIQIV2009QIIQIIIQIV2010QIIQIIIQIV2011QIIQIIIQIV2012QIIQIIIQIV-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Real GDP (Y/Y %)

Source: NBER, BEA, Bloomberg GDP CYOY <Index>


Robust Fed Index Points to Sub-Par Performance

'90Feb-90Mar-90Apr-90May-90Jun-90Jul-90Aug-90Sep-90Oct-90Nov-90Dec-90Jan-91Feb-91Mar-91Apr-91May-91Jun-91Jul-91Aug-91Sep-91Oct-91Nov-91Dec-91Jan-92Feb-92Mar-92Apr-92May-92Jun-92Jul-92Aug-92Sep-92Oct-92Nov-92Dec-92'93Feb-93Mar-93Apr-93May-93Jun-93Jul-93Aug-93Sep-93Oct-93Nov-93Dec-93Jan-94Feb-94Mar-94Apr-94May-94Jun-94Jul-94Aug-94Sep-94Oct-94Nov-94Dec-94Jan-95Feb-95Mar-95Apr-95May-95Jun-95Jul-95Aug-95Sep-95Oct-95Nov-95Dec-95'96Feb-96Mar-96Apr-96May-96Jun-96Jul-96Aug-96Sep-96Oct-96Nov-96Dec-96Jan-97Feb-97Mar-97Apr-97May-97Jun-97Jul-97Aug-97Sep-97Oct-97Nov-97Dec-97Jan-98Feb-98Mar-98Apr-98May-98Jun-98Jul-98Aug-98Sep-98Oct-98Nov-98Dec-98'99Feb-99Mar-99Apr-99May-99Jun-99Jul-99Aug-99Sep-99Oct-99Nov-99Dec-99Jan-00Feb-00Mar-00Apr-00May-00Jun-00Jul-00Aug-00Sep-00Oct-00Nov-00Dec-00Jan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01'02Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04'05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07'08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10'11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12-4.00

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Three Month Moving Average

CFNAI <Index>


Manufacturing Gains Still Not Generating Jobs

1995 2000 2005 20108,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

MFG Jobs (lhs) IP (rhs)

Industrial Production Index, Manufacturing Jobs ('000)

Source: Federal Reserve, BLS USMMMANU <Index>, IP <Index>


It’s 1941 For Manufacturing

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201010,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

U.S. Manufacturing Employment(in thousands)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics USMMMANU <Index>


Housing Starts, the Most Interest Rate Sensitive Sector of the Economy

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

Housing Starts ('000)

Source: Dept. of Commerce NHSPSTOT <Index>


Still a Way to go for Housing Recovery

Jan-59 Jan-67 Jan-75 Jan-83 Jan-91 Jan-99 Jan-07200

700

1,200

1,700

2,200

2,700

Housing Starts ('000)

Source: Dept. of Commerce NHSPSTOT <Index>


Won’t Get Any Jobs from Housing

1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 20130

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

Spending (lhs) Employment (rhs)

Residential Construction Spending ($ mls)Construction Employment (thousands)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg

USECTOT <Index>, CNSTRESI <Index>


This is what the Fed is Trying to Revive?

1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 20102

3

4

5

6

7

8

Residential Investment as a Percent of GDP (%)

PFIVRESI <Index>, GDP CUR$ <Index>Source: BEA


Sideways Movements in Housing

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Bankers Association'sPurchase Applications Index

MBAVPRCH <Index>


Home Prices Have Little Improvement in Post Crisis

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201250

100

150

200

250

300PHXR-SA

LXXR-SA

SDXR-SA

SFXR-SA

DNXR-SA

WDXR-SA

MIXR-SA

TPXR-SA

ATXR-SA

CHXR-SA

BOXR-SA

DEXR-SA

MNXR-SA

CRXR-SA

LVXR-SA

NYXR-SA

CEXR-SA

POXR-SA

DAXR-SA

SEXR-SA

S&P-Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller


Commercial Construction Slump

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

Total U.S. Commercial Construction Spending ($ mlns)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau CNSTCOMM <Index>


Retailers Headed Out of the Malls

2000 2003 2006 2009 20124.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

Regional & Strip Mall Vacancies

Strip Mall Regional & Superregional Malls

Source: Reis Inc.


State & Local Governments May be a Ticking Time Bomb

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201213,000

13,200

13,400

13,600

13,800

14,000

14,200

14,400

14,600

14,800

4,750

4,800

4,850

4,900

4,950

5,000

5,050

5,100

5,150

5,200

5,250

Local (lhs)

State (rhs)

State & Local Government Employment (in thousands)

Source: BLS USEGSTSA <Index>, USEGLCSA <Index>

Earnings/Analyst Conference Calls

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Bloomberg Orange Book

Summary of Commentary on ____________________

CurrentEconomic

Conditions

By Corporation

from earning statements commencing July 1, 2010

ORANGE <GO>


What is Being Said…“And so we're still seeing that midnight shopping in our stores when that EBT card, it's like a debit card, when it is ready and it is funded, there are people who are in the store at midnight because they know it turns on. And they have shopped from like 10:45 to midnight and they're waiting for that card and then our lines open up. And we've had some of our busiest ours at midnight.”

Rosalind Brewer, EVP, Wal-Mart April 12, 2011“I think the most telling indicator for us that economic weakness and employment is the key issue driving soft volumes, is the fact that we continue to see, as – in contrast to the historical norms, we continue to see volume pick up heavily at the beginning of each month, and then steadily erode through the month, being particularly soft in the last week to 10 days of the month. That just tells us that people are running out of money.”

Gregg Engles, CEO Dean Foods May 10, 2011

“Now clearly when it gets to the end of the month and they've run out of dollars and the first of month gets there, you'll see some pick-up in sales. I would say it's not as dramatic as it was two years ago due mostly to the fact that not 100% of those benefits are getting loaded on to people's cards..”

J. Michael Schlotman, CFO, SVP Kroger May 17, 2011


What is Still Being Said…

“…know that 15% of the Americans are living on food stamps today. And we know that most of them, even after two or three weeks, are short of money...”

Dick Boer, CEO Koninklijke Ahold Nv November 28, 2012

“…the value customers are still stretched. We still are getting a lot of food stamps, a very high dollar amount and a very high percentage amount, and that is definitely

problematic.” David Dillion, CEO Kroger October 16, 2012

“…Food stamp usage continues to grow…for a fragile consumer that's seeing volatility in the economy, is worried about the state of their job or finding a job, maybe using food stamps to feed their family and is trying to figure out how to put fuel in the car,

it's still a very challenging and uncertain environment.” Brian Cornell, CEO, Pepsi Americas September 5, 2012


Bloomberg Orange Book Sentiment Index Below 50

June 15, 2012 September 15, 2012 December 15, 2012 March 15, 2013 June 15, 201340.00

42.00

44.00

46.00

48.00

50.00

52.00

54.00

Bloomberg Orange Book Sentiment Index

Source: Bloomberg


Small Businesses Drive the Economy

1987QIIQIIIQIV1988QIIQIIIQIV1989QIIQIIIQIV1990QIIQIIIQIV1991QIIQIIIQIV1992QIIQIIIQIV1993QIIQIIIQIV1994QIIQIIIQIV1995QIIQIIIQIV1996QIIQIIIQIV1997QIIQIIIQIV1998QIIQIIIQIV1999QIIQIIIQIV2000QIIQIIIQIV2001QIIQIIIQIV2002QIIQIIIQIV2003QIIQIIIQIV2004QIIQIIIQIV2005QIIQIIIQIV2006QIIQIIIQIV2007QIIQIIIQIV2008QIIQIIIQIV2009QIIQIIIQIV2010QIIQIIIQIV2011QIIQIIIQIV2012QIIQIIIQIV2013-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Real GDP (Y/Y%) vs. NFIB Small Business Optimism

GDP NFIB

NFIB GDP

Source: NFIB, BEA SBOITOTL <Index>, GDP CYOY <Index>


Small Businesses Drive the Economy

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 201080

85

90

95

100

105

110

Source: NFIB, Bloomberg

NFIB Small Business Optimism

SBOITOTL <Index>


Small Businesses Drive the Economy…

1999 2002 2005 2008 20110

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: NFIB, Bloomberg

NFIB Good Time to Expand Index

SBOIEXPA <Index>


Real Disposable Incomes Spike Not Sustainable

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Real Disposable Personal Incomes (Y/Y%)

PIDSDCWT <Index>Source: BEA, Bloomberg


What Happens When the Stimulus Ends?

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012$8,000

$8,500

$9,000

$9,500

$10,000

$10,500

$11,000

Real Dis Pers Incomes Dis Pers Incomes ex-Transfers

Government Stimulus Driving Incomes

Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bloomberg

Incomes in $ billions

PIDSDCWT <Index>, PIDSPINX <Index>


No Typo, Over 47 Million People at or Below Poverty!

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201225,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance ProgramNumber of Participants

Source: U.S.D.A, Bloomberg FDSPNUM <Index>


Poverty Growing Faster than Payrolls

6/1/2009 6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/201290

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Food Stamps Payrolls

Growth in Food Stamps vs. Nonfarm Payroll Jobs

Source: USDA, BLS


Peddle too Slow, and the Bike Tips Over

1995 2000 2005 2010-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Real Consumer Spending, Y/Y %

PCE CONC <Index>Source: Bloomberg, BEA


There is No Holy Grail of Economic Indicators


‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out

'98Feb-98Mar-98Apr-98May-98Jun-98Jul-98Aug-98Sep-98Oct-98Nov-98Dec-98'99Feb-99Mar-99Apr-99May-99Jun-99Jul-99Aug-99Sep-99Oct-99Nov-99Dec-99'00Feb-00Mar-00Apr-00May-00Jun-00Jul-00Aug-00Sep-00Oct-00Nov-00Dec-00'01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-02Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02'03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03'04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05'06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06'07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09'10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12'13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Spending: Meals at Other Eating Places (Y/Y%)

Source: BEA, NBER RPCEDPMB <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five” – Jewelry & Watches


-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Spending: Jewelry & Watches Y/Y%

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDJRY <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes


-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Spending: Cosmetics & Perfumes (Y/Y%)

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDCOS <Index> <GO>



‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Spending: Women's & Girls' Clothing (Y/Y%)

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDWGC <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling


-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

Spending: Casino Gambling Y/Y%

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER RPCEDCAS <Index> <GO>


Trade Picture isn’t Looking Too Encouraging…


Trade Helped During the Housing Bust, But No Longer a Convincing Contributor

'06 QII QIII QIV '07 QII QIII QIV '08 QII QIII QIV '09 QII QIII QIV '10 QII QIII QIV '11 QII QIII QIV '12 QII QIII QIV '13-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-0.27

-1.13

-1.36-1.18

-0.91

-0.62

-1.24-1.43

-1.26

-0.55-0.73

-1.21 -1.18

-0.63

0.4

-0.12-0.3

0.51

-0.8

0.03

-0.03

0.09 0.03

0.260.43

0.190.31

0.410.31

0.44

0.1

-0.72

1.95

-0.25

0.42

1.55

2.22

0.38

2

0.79

-0.12

2.45 2.47

-0.7

-0.05

-0.83

-1.81

-0.95

1.24

0.03

0.54

0.02

-0.64

0.060.23

0.38 0.33

-0.5

Contribution to GDPResidential Spending & Trade

Residential Trade

Source: BEA GDP %NETX <Index>, GDP%RES <Index>


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