Richard D. Rosen Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research Jin Huang Jin Huang Deputy Director Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections.

Richard D. RosenRichard D. Rosen

Senior Advisor for Climate Research

Jin HuangJin HuangDeputy DirectorDeputy Director

Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections ProgramModeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program

Climate Program OfficeClimate Program Office

WGNE-26/GMPP-12Tokyo, Japan

October 18, 2010

NOAANOAA

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Office of Oceanic Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric and Atmospheric Research (OAR)Research (OAR)

Climate Climate Program Program

OfficeOffice

National Ocean Service (NOS)

National Environmental

Satellite, Data & Information Service

(NESDIS)

National Weather Service (NWS)

National Marine Fisheries Service

(NMFS)

NOAA’s Climate Program Office

A Strategic Approach to Climate Programs

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NOAA Labs & NOAA Labs & CentersCenters

NOAA NOAA Climate Climate Program Program

OfficeOfficeExternal External

institutional institutional relationshipsrelationships

Competitive Competitive GrantsGrants

CPOCPO integratesintegrates and coordinates Federal, academic, private, and international partners into aand coordinates Federal, academic, private, and international partners into a comprehensivecomprehensive, , strategic approachstrategic approach to providing climate research and services for the nation.to providing climate research and services for the nation.

Strategic linkagesStrategic linkages

Strategic linkagesStrategic linkages

Strategic linkagesStrategic linkages

CPO Grant Programs

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Select CPO Funding Opportunities FY2011

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Transitioning to the Climate Service

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Proposed Climate Service

NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan

Long-term goal: Climate Adaptation and MitigationOBJECTIVES (in review)

• Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts

• Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions

• Mitigation and adaptation choices supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services

• A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions

Climate Service: Vision and Mission

Vision Statement

• By providing science and services, the NCS envisions an informed society capable of anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts

Mission Statement

• Improve understanding and prediction of changes in climate and promote a climate-resilient society

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

Climate Service: Core Capabilities Address Societal Challenges

U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives

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•U.S. Global Change Research ProgramoDeveloping new strategic plan to replace current (2003) one

emphasis on end-to-endoutreach activities to seek input over next year

oEstablishing a working group on modelingco-chaired by NOAA, NSF, and DOE

•Earth System Prediction CapabilityoWorkshop held 7-10 September to:

establish initial vision and goals for a program to collaborate on the development and operational implementation of a national ESPC: aspirational goal=0 days to 30 yearsidentify scientific and technical challenges U.S. agency participants: Navy, NOAA, NASA, DOE, plus university observers

U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives (cont.)

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•National Academy of Sciences/BASC study on “A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling”

oHigh-level analysis to develop a strategic framework for improving U.S. capability to simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial time scalesoIntended audience: researchers, federal agencies, national decision makers, and others to develop a shared vision of what the ‘next generation’ of climate models should look likeoTwo-year study; committee now being formedoFunded by Intelligence Community, DOE, NOAA, Navy, NASA

•Related ActivitiesoWCRP-UNESCO Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events [27-29 September 2010, Paris]

How well do climate models reproduce past extreme events?How well do operational models predict extreme events?What climate model output should be archived to assess the likelihood of future extreme events?

Climate Process Teams

Goal: to accelerate development of global climate models and reduce uncertainties by bringing together theoreticians, field program scientists, process modelers, and modeling centers.

NOAA and NSF funded four CPTs for FY10-12:

1. Bretherton, Teixeira, Mechoso, Park (NCAR), Pan (NCEP), and Klein (LLNL): Improving the representation of the stratocumulus to cumulus transition in climate models

2. Larson, Donner (GFDL), Golaz, and Ming: Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to indirect effect

3. MacKinnon and Hallberg (GFDL): Representing internal-wave driven mixing in global ocean models

4. Jin and Hallberg (GFDL): Ocean mixing processes associated with high spatial heterogeneity in sea ice and the implications for climate models