Revisiting Redistricting in Texas: A method for predicting election results Maddalena Romano GEOG 596A: Individual Studies.

Revisiting Redistricting in Texas: A method for predicting election

results

Maddalena RomanoGEOG 596A: Individual Studies

IntroductionThesis Statement:

Using 2010 election data, I will predict the election results for 2012 for the Texas congressional districts based on the newly-proposed districts. 

Hypothesis:

Similar to the results of the 2004 election, the redistricting effort will result in more wins for Republicans in the Texas Congressional Districts.

Goals and ObjectivesGoals•Determine the percentage of voters in the current districts that are registered Republican voters.•Determine the Republican Majority in the new districts. •Predict the number of new districts that will elect a Republican to the US House of Representatives.

Objectives•Demonstrate how redistricting is being used so that the party currently in power in Texas can remain in power.•Demonstrate how the distinction between redistricting and gerrymandering are often difficult to determine.•Determine if gerrymandering alone is enough to explain the results of the 2012 election.•Demonstrate how decisions such as these made at the state level can have repercussions on a national level.

Background• The Redistricting Process

Background• The Redistricting Process

• The Politics of Texas

• Battleground Texas

• Nate Silver’s Predictions

• The Modifiable Area Unit Problem

Background

Background• The Redistricting Process

• The Politics of Texas

• Battleground Texas

• Nate Silver’s Predictions

• The Modifiable Area Unit Problem

• The Voting Rights Act of 1965

Methods

Data, Variables, AssumptionsData•Districts: gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/•Historical Election Data: elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist.exe

Variables•the 2010 number of voters per district•the 2010 political party with which they are registered•the 2010 Congressional election results for Texas•Republican voters•Democratic Voters •the 2012 number of voters per district•the 2012 political party with which they are registered•the 2012 Congressional election results for Texas

Assumptions•Voter population is evenly distributed •Voter turnout is evenly distributed•Voter turnout can be used as an indicator of the number of Republicans in a district•Gerrymandering was a key component of the redistricting process•Population growth is reflected in the 2010 election results

Exploring the data

Figure 3: 2010 Districts with percentage of Republican Majority.

Exploring the Data

Figure 4: Proposed 2012 Texas Congressional Districts superimposed over Republican Majority 2010.

Predicted Results

Figure 5: Predicted outcome of the 2012 Texas Congressional election using the proposed districts.

Predicted ResultsTable 3: Predicted Republican Majority for the proposed 2012 districts*

District Republican Majority

District Republican Majority

District Republican Majority

1 366136 13 665562 25 1646.96 2 711703 14 1211050 26 724517 3 403353 15 -48363.3 27 1807.66 4 437238 16 -49425.9 28 -183853 5 562875 17 152679 29 -616473 6 884033 18 -805659 30 -613687 7 797404 19 239719 31 240049 8 363006 20 -182077 32 292401 9 -1143860 21 674302 33 157136

10 669904 22 711572 34 485696 11 273665 23 10075.7 35 -47759.7 12 282951 24 1224760 36 958037

*Zonal Statistics compiled from subtracting rasters. Negative values indicate Democratic Majority.

Actual ResultsTable 4: Republican Majority for the 2012 districts

District Republican

Majority District Republican

Majority District Republican

Majority 1 0.2499 13 0.5110 25 0.1179 2 0.1805 14 0.0497 26 0.2223 3 0.5616 15 -0.1350 27 0.0985 4 0.2747 16 -0.1825 28 -0.2141 5 0.1751 17 0.4489 29 -0.5055 6 0.1055 18 -0.2945 30 -0.3360 7 0.1369 19 0.4773 31 0.1477 8 0.3199 20 -0.1709 32 0.1057 9 -0.3302 21 0.1413 33 -0.2625

10 0.1363 22 0.1801 34 -0.1441 11 0.3374 23 -0.0267 35 -0.1793 12 0.2484 24 0.1406 36 0.2480

Actual Results

Figure 7: Actual Republican wins.

Actual Results

Table 5: Results from Districts 23, 33, and 34 Francisco Canseco Pete P. Gallego Jeffrey C. Blunt Ed Scharf

District REP DEM LIB GRN

23 87,547 96,676 5,841 2,105 Chuck Bradley Marc Veasey Ed Lindsay

District REP DEM LIB GRN

33 30,252 85,114 2,009 Jessica Puente Bradshaw Filemon Vela Steven Shanklin

District REP DEM LIB GRN

34 52,448 89,606 2,724

Figure 5: Predicted outcome of the 2012 Texas Congressional election using the proposed districts.

Figure 7: Actual Republican wins.

ConclusionGoals•Determine the percentage of voters in the current districts that are registered Republican voters.•Determine the Republican Majority in the new districts. •Predict the number of new districts that will elect a Republican to the US House of Representatives.

Objectives•Demonstrate how redistricting is being used so that the party currently in power in Texas can remain in power.•Demonstrate how the distinction between redistricting and gerrymandering are often difficult to determine.•Determine if gerrymandering alone is enough to explain the results of the 2012 election.•Demonstrate how decisions such as these made at the state level can have repercussions on a national level.

Future studies should expand this analysis to include demographic data on the population growth and distribution in said districts.

Questions?

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