Top Banner
Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, measurement challenges and data needs Claudia Masferrer International Forum on Migration Statistics OECD-OIM, Paris, January 15th, 2017
29

Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Sep 17, 2018

Download

Documents

votram
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, measurement

challenges and data needs Claudia Masferrer

International Forum on Migration Statistics

OECD-OIM, Paris, January 15th, 2017

Page 2: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

February21st,2017

Page 3: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Characteris,cs of Return

•  RiseinreturnofMexicanimmigrantsfromtheU.S.•  Declineofcircularityandincreasingdura9onsofstay•  Increaseindeporta9ons•  Changingeconomiccondi9onsintheU.S.àGreatRecessionandslowrecovery

(González-Barrera2015;Masferrer&Roberts2016;Parrado&Flippen2016;Villarreal2014)

•  Newsitesofreturn

•  Northernborderareas,touristcenters,largemetropolitanareas(Masferrer&Roberts,2012;Rivera2011,2013;VargasValle2015)

Page 4: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Characteris,cs of Return

•  Linkedmigra;ons•  Familymigra9onremainsacri9calpullforreturn•  WitnessanincreaseinU.S.-bornaccompanyingparents,siblings,andspouses•  “Goingtoahomeyouhaveneverbeento”createschallengestointegra9oninvariousdomains,par9cularlyforU.S.-bornminors(Masferrer,Pederzini,Passel&Livingston2012;vanHook&Zhang,2011;Medina&

Menjívar2015;Zúñiga&Hamann2015RendallandTorr2008;GlickandYabiku2016)

à Selec;onintoreturnischanging,accompaniedbyevolu;oninthepaBernsandchallengesofreseBlement

Page 5: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

¿Why is it important to think in the demography and geography of return?

Demography¿Howmany?¿Who?¿Withwhom?¿Howandwhyaretheyreturning?¿Howprepared?

Geography¿Where?¿Tothecommunityoforigin?¿Whatisthecontextofrecep9on?¿Whythere?

Focalizedpublicpolicies

Page 6: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

What is the impact of deporta,on, unpreparedness and family return?

Page 7: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Source:DepartmentofHomelandSecuirty(DHS)yownes9matesusing2000and2010Mexicancensuses,2005Countand2015IntercensalSurvey2015.

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

Mexicanreturnees US-Mexicoflow Removals

Page 8: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

1985−1990 1995−2000 2005−2010 2010−2015

Mexico EU Mexico EU Mexico EU Mexico EU

0

200

400

600

800

Country of birth

Popu

latio

n liv

ing

in M

exic

o th

at li

ved

in U

S 5

yea

rs b

efor

e (th

ousa

nds)

18 years and older Less than 18 years

US-Mexico flows by place of birth and age

Source:ownes9matesusing1990,2000and2010Mexicancensuses,and2015IntercensalSurvey2015.

Page 9: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

US-Mexico flows: Working-age popula,on and minors

Source:ownes9matesusing2000and2010Mexicancensuses,2005Countand2015IntercensalSurvey2015.

510

1520

Thousands

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90Age

2000 20052010 2015

Men

510

1520

Thousands

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90Age

2000 20052010 2015

Women

Page 10: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Where are returnees arriving? Are they seIling in their communi,es of origin? Where they there before?

Page 11: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Returnees by state (total)

Page 12: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Rate of return •  Aimstorelatereturneestopopula9onatriskofreturning(Masferrer&Roberts,2012)

•  Calculatedfor2005and2015,withoutdifferen9a9ngbyplaceofbirth

Rateofreturn(t,t+5) =

Popula9onthatwerelivingintheUSint,butwerein

Mexicoint+5

Popula9onthatlenduringtheperiodt-5totandwere

inUSint

Page 13: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Measure 2000 2005 2010 2015

ResidenceinUS5yearsago(Inter-censalreturn) ü ü ü üCountryofbirth

ü ü üEmigra;on,return,andnon-return(5-yearperiod) ü üRateofreturn(Return/emigra;on) ü ü

Page 14: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Rate of return: old and new des,na,ons

Page 15: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Increased rate and varia,on between states

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5Ba

jaCalifo

rnia

BajaCalifo

rniaSur

Sono

ra

Chihuahu

a

Colim

a

Campe

che

Nayarit

Yucatán

Aguascalientes

Tamaulipas

Nue

voLeó

n

Coahuila

Tabasco

Jalisco

Chiapas

Que

rétaro

Oaxaca

Durango

Zacatecas

DistritoFede

ral

Sinaloa

Micho

acán

SanLuisPo

tosí

Tlaxcala

Veracruz

México

Hidalgo

Guanajuato

Pueb

la

Morelos

Guerrero

2005 2015 Average2005 Rate=1

T TT

TT

T

TT

T

Page 16: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

What explains changes in economic integra,on and labor market incorpora,on of returnees?

Page 17: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Labor Market Incorpora,on

•  Historically,returnmigra;onconnectedtoprocessesofdevelopment•  Increasedlikelihoodofself-employment•  Skillforma9onintheU.S.

(Hagan,Hernandez-LeonandDemonsant2015;Lindstrom2013;Parrado&Gu9errez

2016;Gu9errez&Parrado2016)

•  Recentreturneesengagingdifferentlyinthelabormarket•  Lowerlikelihoodofbecomingemployersandlowerearningsforrecentarrivalcohorts•  Forprime-agemen,changeinearningsrelatedtoincreasingengagementintheinformalsectorandoccupa9on

(Parrado&Gu9errez2016;Gu9errez&Parrado2016)

Page 18: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Employment Status: Men

77.1 78.8 83.4 84.969.4 74.8 72.6 78.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015

Non-Mover Internalmigrant ReturneesfromU.S. RecentU.S.-born

Self-employed Wage/salaryworker

Page 19: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Employment Status: Women

79.3 79.7 84.8 82.670.1 72.8

85.1 79.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015

Non-Mover Internalmigrant ReturneesfromU.S. RecentU.S.-born

Self-employed Wage/salaryworker

Page 20: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Adjusted Annual Income: By Gender, 2000-2015

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2010 2015

Non-migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee US-born

Men

2000 2010 2015

Women

Internal Migrant US-born US Returnee

Non-migrant

Page 21: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Deteriora,on of wages con,nued aWer the recession for men.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2010 2015

Non-Migrant

Internal Migrant

US Returnee

Recent US-born

15-24

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2010 2015

Non-Migrant

Internal Migrant

US Returnee

Recent US-born

24-39

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2010 2015

Non-Migrant

Internal Migrant

US Returnee

Recent US-born

40-59

Page 22: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

The gap closes for women as well. Sharpest decline among those aged 40-59

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2010 2015 Non-Migrant

Internal Migrant

US Returnee

US-born

15-24

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2010 2015 Non-Migrant

Internal Migrant

US Returnee

US-born

25-39

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2010 2015 Non-migrant

Internal Migrant

US Returnee

US-born

40-59

Page 23: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

How are minors integra,ng? How do schooling experiences vary by des,na,on, age, and migra,on experience?

Page 24: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Mexican and US-born minors who migrated recently from the US (2015)

Page 25: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Small gap in terms of school aIendance for returnees, recent US-born, and non-migrants

50556065707580859095

100

Retornado

EUre

cien

te

Nomigrante

Retornado

EUre

cien

te

Nomigrante

Retornado

EUre

cien

te

Nomigrante

2000 2010 2015

13-17years

50556065707580859095

100

Retornado

EUre

cien

te

Nomigrante

Retornado

EUre

cien

te

Nomigrante

Retornado

EUre

cien

te

Nomigrante

2000 2010 2015

5-12years

Fuente:Cálculospropiosconbaseenloscensosde2000y2010ylaEncuestaIntercensal2015.

Page 26: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages
Page 27: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Changes in the nature of return • Demographicchanges

•  Differentdimensionsofintegra9on•  Mixedstatusfamilies,familysepara9onandreturnofcompletehouseholds

• Geographicchanges•  Emigra9onandreturn•  Goingbacktoadifferent-newcommunity

•  Localdevelopment,remiuances,socialandhumancapital•  Integra9onratherthanreincopora9on•  Policiesatdes9na9onnotatorigin:transporta9onsupporttogoback?

Page 28: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Challenges and data limita,ons •  Conceptualdefini9onsofreturn

•  Residence5yearsago:1yearagoisnotavailable•  Placeofbirth

•  Notavailablein2005and2015•  Notavailablein2000or2010fornon-returnees•  Problema9cbecausereturneesarejoinedbyUS-bornfamilymembers(especiallyminors)

• Whole-householdmigrants•  Out-migra9on:Ommissionresultsinanunderes9mateoffemalemigrants,childmigrants,andmigrantsfromtheborder(HamiltonandSavinar,2015)

•  Returnmigra9on:captured

•  Differentinfluencesofgeographyofreturnin2005and2015•  Violenceandinsecurity•  Foreign-bornpopula9on

Page 29: Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, … · 1/15/2017 · US Returnee US-bornUS-born Men 2000 2010 2015 Women Internal Migrant US Returnee Non-migrant . Deterioraon of wages

Thank you. [email protected]