Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, measurement challenges and data needs Claudia Masferrer International Forum on Migration Statistics OECD-OIM, Paris, January 15th, 2017
Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, measurement
challenges and data needs Claudia Masferrer
International Forum on Migration Statistics
OECD-OIM, Paris, January 15th, 2017
Characteris,cs of Return
• RiseinreturnofMexicanimmigrantsfromtheU.S.• Declineofcircularityandincreasingdura9onsofstay• Increaseindeporta9ons• Changingeconomiccondi9onsintheU.S.àGreatRecessionandslowrecovery
(González-Barrera2015;Masferrer&Roberts2016;Parrado&Flippen2016;Villarreal2014)
• Newsitesofreturn
• Northernborderareas,touristcenters,largemetropolitanareas(Masferrer&Roberts,2012;Rivera2011,2013;VargasValle2015)
Characteris,cs of Return
• Linkedmigra;ons• Familymigra9onremainsacri9calpullforreturn• WitnessanincreaseinU.S.-bornaccompanyingparents,siblings,andspouses• “Goingtoahomeyouhaveneverbeento”createschallengestointegra9oninvariousdomains,par9cularlyforU.S.-bornminors(Masferrer,Pederzini,Passel&Livingston2012;vanHook&Zhang,2011;Medina&
Menjívar2015;Zúñiga&Hamann2015RendallandTorr2008;GlickandYabiku2016)
à Selec;onintoreturnischanging,accompaniedbyevolu;oninthepaBernsandchallengesofreseBlement
¿Why is it important to think in the demography and geography of return?
Demography¿Howmany?¿Who?¿Withwhom?¿Howandwhyaretheyreturning?¿Howprepared?
Geography¿Where?¿Tothecommunityoforigin?¿Whatisthecontextofrecep9on?¿Whythere?
Focalizedpublicpolicies
Source:DepartmentofHomelandSecuirty(DHS)yownes9matesusing2000and2010Mexicancensuses,2005Countand2015IntercensalSurvey2015.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2000 2005 2010 2015
Mexicanreturnees US-Mexicoflow Removals
1985−1990 1995−2000 2005−2010 2010−2015
Mexico EU Mexico EU Mexico EU Mexico EU
0
200
400
600
800
Country of birth
Popu
latio
n liv
ing
in M
exic
o th
at li
ved
in U
S 5
yea
rs b
efor
e (th
ousa
nds)
18 years and older Less than 18 years
US-Mexico flows by place of birth and age
Source:ownes9matesusing1990,2000and2010Mexicancensuses,and2015IntercensalSurvey2015.
US-Mexico flows: Working-age popula,on and minors
Source:ownes9matesusing2000and2010Mexicancensuses,2005Countand2015IntercensalSurvey2015.
510
1520
Thousands
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90Age
2000 20052010 2015
Men
510
1520
Thousands
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90Age
2000 20052010 2015
Women
Where are returnees arriving? Are they seIling in their communi,es of origin? Where they there before?
Rate of return • Aimstorelatereturneestopopula9onatriskofreturning(Masferrer&Roberts,2012)
• Calculatedfor2005and2015,withoutdifferen9a9ngbyplaceofbirth
Rateofreturn(t,t+5) =
Popula9onthatwerelivingintheUSint,butwerein
Mexicoint+5
Popula9onthatlenduringtheperiodt-5totandwere
inUSint
Measure 2000 2005 2010 2015
ResidenceinUS5yearsago(Inter-censalreturn) ü ü ü üCountryofbirth
ü ü üEmigra;on,return,andnon-return(5-yearperiod) ü üRateofreturn(Return/emigra;on) ü ü
Increased rate and varia,on between states
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5Ba
jaCalifo
rnia
BajaCalifo
rniaSur
Sono
ra
Chihuahu
a
Colim
a
Campe
che
Nayarit
Yucatán
Aguascalientes
Tamaulipas
Nue
voLeó
n
Coahuila
Tabasco
Jalisco
Chiapas
Que
rétaro
Oaxaca
Durango
Zacatecas
DistritoFede
ral
Sinaloa
Micho
acán
SanLuisPo
tosí
Tlaxcala
Veracruz
México
Hidalgo
Guanajuato
Pueb
la
Morelos
Guerrero
2005 2015 Average2005 Rate=1
T TT
TT
T
TT
T
Labor Market Incorpora,on
• Historically,returnmigra;onconnectedtoprocessesofdevelopment• Increasedlikelihoodofself-employment• Skillforma9onintheU.S.
(Hagan,Hernandez-LeonandDemonsant2015;Lindstrom2013;Parrado&Gu9errez
2016;Gu9errez&Parrado2016)
• Recentreturneesengagingdifferentlyinthelabormarket• Lowerlikelihoodofbecomingemployersandlowerearningsforrecentarrivalcohorts• Forprime-agemen,changeinearningsrelatedtoincreasingengagementintheinformalsectorandoccupa9on
(Parrado&Gu9errez2016;Gu9errez&Parrado2016)
Employment Status: Men
77.1 78.8 83.4 84.969.4 74.8 72.6 78.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015
Non-Mover Internalmigrant ReturneesfromU.S. RecentU.S.-born
Self-employed Wage/salaryworker
Employment Status: Women
79.3 79.7 84.8 82.670.1 72.8
85.1 79.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015
Non-Mover Internalmigrant ReturneesfromU.S. RecentU.S.-born
Self-employed Wage/salaryworker
Adjusted Annual Income: By Gender, 2000-2015
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2010 2015
Non-migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee US-born
Men
2000 2010 2015
Women
Internal Migrant US-born US Returnee
Non-migrant
Deteriora,on of wages con,nued aWer the recession for men.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2010 2015
Non-Migrant
Internal Migrant
US Returnee
Recent US-born
15-24
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2010 2015
Non-Migrant
Internal Migrant
US Returnee
Recent US-born
24-39
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2010 2015
Non-Migrant
Internal Migrant
US Returnee
Recent US-born
40-59
The gap closes for women as well. Sharpest decline among those aged 40-59
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2010 2015 Non-Migrant
Internal Migrant
US Returnee
US-born
15-24
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2010 2015 Non-Migrant
Internal Migrant
US Returnee
US-born
25-39
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2010 2015 Non-migrant
Internal Migrant
US Returnee
US-born
40-59
How are minors integra,ng? How do schooling experiences vary by des,na,on, age, and migra,on experience?
Small gap in terms of school aIendance for returnees, recent US-born, and non-migrants
50556065707580859095
100
Retornado
EUre
cien
te
Nomigrante
Retornado
EUre
cien
te
Nomigrante
Retornado
EUre
cien
te
Nomigrante
2000 2010 2015
13-17years
50556065707580859095
100
Retornado
EUre
cien
te
Nomigrante
Retornado
EUre
cien
te
Nomigrante
Retornado
EUre
cien
te
Nomigrante
2000 2010 2015
5-12years
Fuente:Cálculospropiosconbaseenloscensosde2000y2010ylaEncuestaIntercensal2015.
Changes in the nature of return • Demographicchanges
• Differentdimensionsofintegra9on• Mixedstatusfamilies,familysepara9onandreturnofcompletehouseholds
• Geographicchanges• Emigra9onandreturn• Goingbacktoadifferent-newcommunity
• Localdevelopment,remiuances,socialandhumancapital• Integra9onratherthanreincopora9on• Policiesatdes9na9onnotatorigin:transporta9onsupporttogoback?
Challenges and data limita,ons • Conceptualdefini9onsofreturn
• Residence5yearsago:1yearagoisnotavailable• Placeofbirth
• Notavailablein2005and2015• Notavailablein2000or2010fornon-returnees• Problema9cbecausereturneesarejoinedbyUS-bornfamilymembers(especiallyminors)
• Whole-householdmigrants• Out-migra9on:Ommissionresultsinanunderes9mateoffemalemigrants,childmigrants,andmigrantsfromtheborder(HamiltonandSavinar,2015)
• Returnmigra9on:captured
• Differentinfluencesofgeographyofreturnin2005and2015• Violenceandinsecurity• Foreign-bornpopula9on
Thank you. [email protected]