Results of Nutrients Scenarios the Danube River Basin

8/8/2019 Results of Nutrients Scenarios the Danube River Basin

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Reducing nutrients pollution inthe Danube River Basin

Dr. Mihaela Popovici,

ICPDR, TE Pollution ControlWorld Bank Regional Conference, Oct 2010

Results of nutrients scenarios

the Danube River Basin


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Structure of the presentation

DBA findings as basis for approachingnutrients

Interlinkages between the pressuresNutrient pollution approach

Scenarios results

ICPDR on going work and synergieswith the WB DREPR project


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DRB ANALYSIS

Risk of Failure

organic p.

nutrient p.

haz.subst.p.

hydromorph.

2780 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0rkm

at risk possibly at risk not at risk

pressures /impacts from DE AT

SK/HU HR - CS BG/ROHU ROCS/RO

*

organic p.

nutrient p.

haz.subst.p.

hydromorph.

2780 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0rkm

at risk possibly at risk not at riskat risk possibly at risk not at risk

pressures /impacts from DE AT

SK/HU HR - CS BG/ROHU ROCS/RO

*


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Significant WaterManagement Issues

Organic

Pollution

Nutrient

Pollution

Hazardous

Substances Pollution

Hydromorphological

Alterations


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Joint Programme ofMeasures in the DRB

PROBLEMS OF THE DANUBE

5

Organic Poll.

SWIMI

Nutrients

SWIMI

Haz. Subst.

SWIMI

Several SWMIs affected bymeasures

PROBLEMS OF THE DANUBE


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Urban wastewater treatment plantsUWWTPs > 10.000 p.e; UWWTPs 2,000 -10.000

Transfer of the final results into the ICPDRemission inventories databases

Industrial discharges

Preparation for future PRTR data use / interfaceto Emissions Inventories database

Agro - industrial unitsEuropean Pollutants Emissions Register II (EPER

Point sourcesPressures assessment


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Urban wastewaterScenario definitionSC 1: Reference scenario: status

2005/06SC 2: Baseline scenario 2015

- MS: UWWTD- Non EU MS:

Committed construction for all aggl.>10,000 p.e. are treated by secondary

treatment


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Point sources- Measuresto achieve uwwt development

Comprehensive overview of statusand development plans of theUWWTD for the MS and non-EUcountries and the anticipatedeffects as nutrient and organicpollution loads for 2006 -2015

Preparation of scenarios withanticipated load input reductionsand options for reduction

Overview and illustrations


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Specific problem UWWTimplementation & nutrient red!

key measure to address organic pollution and nutrientinputs from point sources

requires additional technical steps for nutrient removal

additional efforts for P - removal

higher technical effort + additional space required for N-removal

coherence and smart planning necessary!!


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Diffuse sources of pollutionmeasures to achieve mgt obj

Measures addressing agriculturalpressures

Measures addressing accidental

pollution: safety

P-free detergents

Modeling with MONERIScumulative effects of different sets ofmeasures and scenarios


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MONERIS decisionsupport and mgt tool

Concept for integration of datarequired by the EU directives forMONERIS calculations

Basin wide overview of point

and diffuse pollution sources

Calculation of scenarios forpossible changes of nutrients

loads within the Danube riversystems and into the Black Sea

Evaluation of Program of

Measures


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The AUs (918) can be combinedto 67 SUs, 21 sub- basins and19 countries!!


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667000 t/a N 47900 t/a P Emissions

464000 t/a N 23600 t/a P Load2.04 mg/l TN 0.104 mg/l TP Conc.

Sources of N and P emissions

in the DRBD for present state

12%

60%

24%

4%

Background Urban settlements Agriculture Other sources

7%

28%

24%

9%

14%

7%

11%

Background Urban sett lements Fertilizer+Manure

NHx agric. Area NHx other area NOX agric . Area

NOX other area


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Nutrient PollutionDanube Basin Vision

The balanced managementof nutrient emissions via point anddiffuse sources in the entire DRBthat neither the waters of the DRBnor the Black Sea are threatened

or impacted by eutrophication.


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Scenario concept

ICPDR Nutrient Task Group work.

Four steps methodology:

set out assumptions for possible developments regarding

various sectors,develop scenario by combining different set of

assumptions,

map assumptions into load reductions and, in case ofnutrient emissions into input parameters for MONERIS, and

perform scenario assessments and nutrient scenariocalculation with MONERIS using the relevant parameters.


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Scenarios: Assumptionson possible routes

SCENARIOS

Danube River Basin Analysis

SWMI Organic SWMIS Nutrient SWMI HS Others..

Key measures organic inputfrom point sources Key measures nutrient input

from point sources

Key measures hazardoussubstances input from point

sourcesRoute to

Integration

Others..


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Issues to be considered in the transboundaycontext

Input data have a considerable influence on the

quality of the results of a model

The delivery and harmonizing of data is relevantespecially regarding the transnational cooperation

e.g. within the WFD

Data producing, data quality,harmonizing of data


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Scenariosdevelopment (1)

Baseline Scenario Agriculture 2015 - moderateagricultural development.

Agricultural Scenario-Nutrients 1 2015

N surplus of Danube countries as EU 15 in the year 2000 (i.e.57 kg/ha/a). No change in atmospheric deposition will occur.

Agricultural Scenario-Nutrients 2 2015

N balance will be same for SK, RS, HU, RO and UA as in DE,AT and SI.No change in atmospheric deposition will take place and Nsurplus in the remaining countries stays unchanged.

NutrientPollution


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Scenariosdevelopment (2)

Urban wastewater treatment scenarios

Phosphate Ban Scenario-Nutrients (PBan-Nut)

(ICPDR Resolution Ordinary Meeting Dec 2008)

Baseline Scenario-Nutrients (BS-Nut-2015)

Overall scenario combining the agreed most likely

developments in different sectors:urban wastewater

agriculture

atmospheric deposition

NutrientPollution


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Present state and BLSfor 2015 (results for N)


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PhosphorousNitrogen

NutrientPollution

Management objectives and EU WFD objectives not ensured

N emissions to surface waters in 2015: 12% lower. Loads to the Black Sea stillfar above (40%) the load of the 1960s.

P emissions to surface waters in 2015: 25 % lower. Load to the Black Sea still

above (15%) that of the 1960s

Introduction of Phosphate free detergents in the DRB

Key Conclusions:

nutrients pollutionreduction by 2015


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2005

DecemberOctober

Monthly emissions

in the Odra basin


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- Collecting and preparation of monthly precipitation data

- Calibration of monthly run-off from sub-catchments

- Set up of MONERIS for monthly calculations for Danube river basin

- Recalculation of MONERIS on monthly basis

- Analysis of results to find monthly hot spots of emissions

Ongoing ICPDR tasks relatedto agriculture/nutrients

I. Climate changes incorporated in the model

II. Cost effectiveness of the measures


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I. Climate changes incorporatedin the model

N-surplus on agricultural land is one of the most important input

data for the nitrogen emissions calculations.

N-surplus is also one of the most crucial parameter for the set

up of future nutrient emissions scenarios.

MONERIS models the total change nitrogen surplus onagricultural land.

This gives the possibility to consider country specific situationsand options for further development of the agriculturalsector.


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Strategic planning at basin level

Basin level program of measures / investment programdevelopment / agri-environmental program

Scoping of measures at sub basin or object level

Data requirements / availability

Complexity of method

Differentitation of cost estimate

Scale

II. Cost effectiveness analysis (CEA)

Concept


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The economic assessment at the strategic level can be used tocreate additional criteria based in economic approaches to informmanagement discussions such as cost-effectiveness and fairness

at the basin level.

The approach can aggregate costs and effects in a consistentmanner of programmes of measures defined at the sub-basin

level to give a basin wide picture.


Objectives


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CEA usefulness in the development ofriver management plans

analysis of future economic pressures. To be able to asses theimpact of key policies of the EU (Common Agricultural Policy,Nitrates Directive) on the development of the nutrient pollution

to develop instruments for water management based oneconomic principles (such as cost recovery principle, nutrienttrading, etc)

to asses the cost effectiveness of measures to improve theualit status of water bodies.



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II. CEA next steps

Cost Functions have to be fully integrated in the model and

adapted to the type and extent of measures in the DRBD.

Analysis of the cost-minimal combination of the measures

A more detailed description of the method and itsimplementation in MONERIS.

(Handbook is under development.)

Establishing a link to CAPRI to assess effects of agriculturalpolicy.


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Synergies WB DREPR - ICPDR

Use of MONERIS in modelling the total change nitrogen surpluson agricultural land

This gives the possibility to consider country specific situations

and options for further development of the agriculturalsector.

Estimates of the BAP implemented which can serve as

inputs from Serbia into the JPM implementation report

Direct incorporation of framers representatives useful inthe planned ICPDRs stakeholders dialogue


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For further information see www.icpdr.org

Thank you for your attention!

Results of Nutrients Scenarios the Danube River Basin

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