Resource Slides “Future Talk” with County Councils Extension to Communities.

Resource Slides

“Future Talk”with

County CouncilsExtension to Communities

Governor’s Strategic Planning Council2010 Goals

1. Iowa Welcomes a Diverse Population

2. Electronically Connected to Each Other and the World

3. Life Sciences Capital of the World

4. A Great Place to Visit and to Live

5. Higher Wages and Income

6. Education for a Lifetime

7. Protecting and Preserving Our Natural Resources

8. Smart Government Works for Iowans

Prepared by

Census Services

Iowa State UniversityExtension to Communities

with support from Iowa PROfiles and Department of Economics

ISU Census Services

Trends inWarren County

Margaret Hanson Georgeann Artz Renea Miller Mark Imerman Willis Goudy

April 2001

1900 1950 2000 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60Thousands

Projected Population Warren County

ISU Census ServicesSource: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2000

Population Ackworth

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population Carlisle

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

1

2

3

4

5Thousands

ISU Census Services

Population Cumming

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population Hartford

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population Indianola

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

5

10

15

20

25Thousands

ISU Census Services

Population Lacona

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population Martensdale

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population Milo

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population New Virginia

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population Norwalk

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

2

4

6

8

10Thousands

ISU Census Services

Population Sandyville

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population Spring Hill

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Population St. Marys

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

ISU Census Services

Births and DeathsWarren County

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

100

200

300

400

500

600

Births Deaths

ISU Census Services

Natural Change* by DecadeWarren County

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

0

2

4

6

-2

-4

-6

Thousands

ISU Census Services* Births minus deaths

Net Migration by DecadeWarren County

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

0

2

4

6

-2

-4

-6

Thousands

ISU Census Services

Certified and Projected K-12 Enrollment*Warren County

1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 20040

2

4

6

8

10Thousands

Certified Projected* Includes only public schools ISU Census Services

1978 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 20000%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

*Minority includes Hispanic, Black, Asian American, and American Indian students

State Warren County

Percent Minority* K - 12 Students

ISU Census Services

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35Thousands

State Warren County

Per Capita Income

ISU Census Services

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35Thousands

State Warren County

Adjusted Per Capita Income (1998 dollars)

ISU Census Services

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 19990%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Based on October public and nonpublic school enrollment

State Warren County

Percent of Students Receiving Free or Reduced-Price School Meals

ISU Census Services

Population Under 5 and 75 or OlderWarren County

1940 1950 1990 20000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

198019701960

ISU Census Services

Under 5 75 or older

Population 2000Warren County

85+80 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 6950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 - 1910 - 14

5 - 90 - 4

0%1%2%3%4%5%6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Male Female

ISU Census Services

Population 1980Warren County

85+80 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 6950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 - 1910 - 14

5 - 90 - 4

0%1%2%3%4%5%6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Male Female

ISU Census Services

Surplus or Leakage of Retail Sales

• An indicator of the economic health of the county’s retail sector

• A positive number means there is a net inflow (surplus) of retail sales into the county

• A negative number means there is a net outflow of retail sales (leakage)

1980 Iowa County Retail Sales Surplus or Leakage

-11%

-25%

-11%

-8%

-17%

-30%

5%

-27%

-18%

-27%

10% -38%

-15%

22%

-4%

-30%

11%

-1%

-5%

-13%

10%

-7%

-16%

-7%

-29%

-28%-25%

-23%

10%

3%

4%

10%

11%

-23%

-13%

-38%

-25%

-32%

-31%

1%

-13%

13%

-28%

-10%

-17%

-5%

-32%

32%

-22%

-18%

-15%

-2%

1%

-28%

-3%

1%

22%

-38%

-39%

-18%

-42% 12%-26%

-4%

-53%

-6%

-22%

-29%-16%

-15%

-3%

6%

-10%

-23%

-16% -18%

34%

-22%

-26%

-27%

-19%

7%0%

5%

-15% -25%

-29%

2%

-44%

-12%

-50% -2%

-36%

28%

-21%-25%

6%

-32%

-20%

Lyon

Sioux

Plym outh

W oodbury

Montgom ery

Harrison

Monona

Pottawattam ie

Mills

Frem ont Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur W ayne Appanoose Davis

Adam s Union Clarke Lucas Monroe W apello Jefferson

Van Buren

Lee

HenryDes

Moines

Cass Adair Madison W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington

Louisa

Muscatine

Scott

Cedar

Clinton

JacksonJonesLinn

Johnson

Osceola

O'Brien

Cherokee

Ida

Dickinson

Clay

Buena Vista

Em m et

Palo Alto

Pocahontas

Sac

Crawford

Shelby Audubon

Carroll

Calhoun

Greene

Guthrie

Kossuth

Hum boldt

W ebster

Boone

Dallas Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa

Tam a BentonStory Marshall

Ham ilton Hardin Grundy

Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Dubuque

W right Franklin Butler Brem er

Fayette Clayton

W inneshiek Allam akeeW innebago

Hancock

W orth

Cerro Gordo

Mitchell

Floyd

Howard

Chickasaw

Counties with surplus (n=25)

Counties with leakage (n=74)Note: Rounded to nearest

whole number.

2000 Iowa County Retail Sales Surplus or Leakage

-32%

-48%

-21%

-21%

-55%

-49%

15%

-38%

-37%

-40%

-12% -57%

-59%

6%

-5%

-58%

32%

-25%

-36%

-29%

39%

-35%

-20%

-30%

-53%

-46%-48%

-35%

17%

28%

16%

-2%

-25%

-30%

-49%

-19%

-34%

-60%

-41%

-32%

-53%

-14%

-56%

-37%

-29%

-29%

-41%

9%

-34%

-37%

4%

3%

-19%

-68%

-23%

-9%

26%

-79%

-43%

-46%

-41% -21%-30%

-7%

-63%

-41%

-46%

-43%-25%

-14%

-23%

-40%

-34%

-43%

-38% -52%

42%

5%

-27%

-44%

-44%

26%-32%

-17%

-2% -50%

-58%

13%

-61%

7%

-55% -33%

-56%

32%

-21%-14%

9%

-62%

-26%

Lyon

Sioux

Plym outh

W oodbury

Montgom ery

Harrison

Monona

Pottawattam ie

Mills

Frem ont Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur W ayne Appanoose Davis

Adam s Union Clarke Lucas Monroe W apello Jefferson

Van Buren

Lee

HenryDes

Moines

Cass Adair Madison W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington

Louisa

Muscatine

Scott

Cedar

Clinton

JacksonJonesLinn

Johnson

Osceola

O'Brien

Cherokee

Ida

Dickinson

Clay

Buena Vista

Em m et

Palo Alto

Pocahontas

Sac

Crawford

Shelby Audubon

Carroll

Calhoun

Greene

Guthrie

Kossuth

Hum boldt

W ebster

Boone

Dallas Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa

Tam a BentonStory Marshall

Ham ilton Hardin Grundy

Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Dubuque

W right Franklin Butler Brem er

Fayette Clayton

W inneshiek Allam akeeW innebago

Hancock

W orth

Cerro Gordo

Mitchell

Floyd

Howard

Chickasaw

Counties with surplus (n=18)

Counties with leakage (n=81)Note: Rounded to nearest

whole number.

Warren County Surplus or Leakage for Total Taxable Retail Sales

($250)

($200)

($150)

($100)

($50)

$0

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00

Mil

lion

s of

Dol

lars

Warren County Surplus or Leakage by Merchandise Category, 2000

($16.57)

($32.20)

($23.14)

($14.26)

($27.73)

($26.32)

($21.01)

($23.00)

NA

($218.48)

-$250 -$200 -$150 -$100 -$50 $0

Total Sales

Wholesale

Services

Specialty

Home Furnishings

General Merch.

Food

Eating & Drinking

Building Mat.

Apparel

Millions of DollarsNA means data not available.

• Net outflow: payroll exceeds reported earnings (i.e., non-county residents are commuting into the county for work).

• Net inflow: reported earnings exceeds reported payroll (i.e., county residents commuting out of county for work).

• “Balanced”: earnings and reported payroll relatively equal.

Lyon

Sioux

Plym outh

W oodbury

Montgom ery

Harrison

Monona

Pottawattam ie

Mills

Frem ont Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur W ayne Appanoose Davis

Adam s Union Clarke Lucas Monroe W apello Jefferson

Van Buren

Lee

HenryDes

Moines

Cass Adair Madison W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington

Louisa

Muscatine

Scott

Cedar

Clinton

JacksonJonesLinn

Johnson

Osceola

O'Brien

Cherokee

Ida

Dickinson

Clay

Buena Vista

Em m et

Palo Alto

Pocahontas

Sac

Crawford

Shelby Audubon

Carroll

Calhoun

Greene

Guthrie

Kossuth

Hum boldt

W ebster

Boone

Dallas Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa

Tam a BentonStory Marshall

Ham ilton Hardin Grundy

Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Dubuque

W right Franklin Butler Brem er

Fayette Clayton

W inneshiek Allam akeeW innebago

Hancock

W orth

Cerro Gordo

Mitchell

Floyd

Howard

Chickasaw

Net Earnings, 1999

Map created by the Rural Data ProjectData Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Net outflow"Balanced"Net inflow