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Recent Trends in California Migration Evidence from the American Community Survey 2005-2019 STUART GABRIEL AND BENJAMIN FREYD UCLA ZIMAN CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE 1 JENNIE BRAND, NEAL FULTZ, AND MICHAEL TZEN CALIFORNIA CENTER FOR POPULATION RESEARCH University of California Office of the President February 4, 2021
44

Recent Trends in California Migration

Nov 09, 2021

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Page 1: Recent Trends in California Migration

Recent Trends in California MigrationEvidence from the American Community Survey

2005-2019

STUART GABRIEL AND BENJAMIN FREYDUCLA ZIMAN CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE

1

JENNIE BRAND, NEAL FULTZ, AND MICHAEL TZENCALIFORNIA CENTER FOR POPULATION RESEARCH

University of California Office of the PresidentFebruary 4, 2021

Page 2: Recent Trends in California Migration

Objective and Data

Recent media reports suggest an acceleration in population flight from California.Turnaround in long-standing CA migration flows could have substantial adverseconsequences for CA economic activity, tax base, and fiscal policy.

This study utilizes the most recently available data from the American Community Survey(2005-2019) to characterize trends and defining characteristics of California migration. TheACS is a premier source for detailed U.S. population and housing information.

A few words about our data:

• Annual frequency

• 1% sample of U.S. population; representative cluster sampling of households

• Next survey update: 2020 data available in November 2021

• Our sample focuses on former and current California residents above 25 years of age

• Migration is defined as having moved across state lines within the 12 month period prior to the survey

• Our sample size ranges from 200,000 to 250,000 individuals per year

2

Page 3: Recent Trends in California Migration

California Migration Flows2005 - 2019

0

100

200

300

400

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Migration Type Domestic Inwards Foreign Inwards Outwards

Gross Migration

0

50

100

150

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

California in-migration exceeds out-migration. Net in-migration to California trended down from roughly 150,000 persons/year to 50,000 persons/year between 2014 -2019.

Out-migration has trended up by roughly 100,000 over recent years but was little different in magnitude in 2019 from 2005. In-migration from both domestic and foreign sources recently has eased but appears little changed on net over the study period.

In 2019, out migration exceeded domestic in-migration by roughly 100,000 persons; the positive net domestic out-migration from CA moved up from 2012 to a 2019 level not much different from the early 2000s.

Page 4: Recent Trends in California Migration

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Migration Type Domestic Inwards Foreign Inwards Outwards

Gross Migration

0

200

400

600

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

California Gross and Net Migration Rates2005 - 2019

Rates of net In-migration to California similarly declined between 2014-2019 but remained positive.

The decline in net in-migration rate to CA is driven by a combination of damped rates of in-migration from both international and domestic sources coupled with some trending up since 2012 in rates of out-migration.

Page 5: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by Age Cohort(Including International Immigrants)

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

0

400

800

1200

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Age 25-39 y.o. 40-59 y.o. 60+ y.o.

Mobility rates among the younger (25-39) age cohort substantially dominate those of older groups. Net in-migration rates among younger persons declined by roughly one-half between 2017 and 2019 but remain positive.

Net in-migration rates among middle aged persons ((40-59) changed little over study years.

Net in-migration rates to California among older persons aged 60+ moved down from 2014 and turned negative in 2017 owing to adverse trends in both rates of in- and out-migration.

Page 6: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top State Destinations of California Immigrants by Age

TexasArizonaWashingtonNevadaOregon

TexasArizonaNevadaWashingtonOregon

ArizonaNevadaOregonTexasWashington

25-39 y.o.

40-59 y.o.

60+ y.o.

Share of Group Migration (%)

Age

Texas was the top destination choice among younger and middle-aged cohorts. In contrast, the neighboring and more affordable states of Arizona and Nevada were top destinations choices of retiree migrants.

Top sending regions for young in-migrants to CA included Washington State and New York.

Page 7: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by Educational AttainmentIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

0

500

1000

1500

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Education High School College

Net in-migration to California has been dominated by higher human capital college-educated migrants; net CA in-migration rates among that group have fallen back by roughly one-half since 2015 but remain positive..

Net in-migration rates among high school educated households have been modest and trended down in recent years to close to zero in 2019.

Page 8: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top State Destinations of California Migrants by Educational Attainment

Arizona

Texas

Nevada

Oregon

Washington

TexasWashington

Arizona

New York

Oregon

High School

College

Share of Group Migration (%)

Educ

atio

n

Texas and Washington State were the top destinations of high human capital out-migrants from CA, whereas Arizona, Texas, and Nevada ranked as the top destinations of lower human capital migrants.

New York, Texas, Illinois and Washington State were the top sending regions of high human capital migrants to CA; in contrast, lower human capital migrants to CA originated in AZ, NV, and TX.

Page 9: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by Income PercentileIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

0

500

1000

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Income percentiles are computed each year based on income from current California residents.

Income First Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Fourth Quartile Top 5%

Net in-migration rates to CA have declined among all income quartiles. Among middle-income migrants in the second and third income quartiles, those rates turned slightly negative in recent years.

Rates of net in-migration to CA among the top 5 percent of earners declined by one-half in recent years but remain positive. The decline in rates of in-migration among the top 5 percent of earners reflects the combination of some easing in entry rates coupled with modest trending up in exit rates.

Page 10: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top State Destinations of California Migrants by Income

TexasArizonaNevadaWashingtonOregon

TexasArizonaWashingtonVirginiaNevada

TexasWashingtonNew YorkArizonaColorado

Bottom 90%

Top 5-10%

Top 5%

Share of Group Migration (%)

Inco

me

Bra

cket

Popular destinations among the top 5% of earners included Texas, Washington State, and New York; similarly, New York and Texas were the top origins of high earning population entering CA.

Popular destination and origin states among the lower 90% of CA earners included Texas, Arizona, and Nevada.

Page 11: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by RaceIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

-1000

0

1000

2000

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Race Asian Black Hispanic Other White

Net in-migration rates of Asian households were elevated relative to other groups and little changed over the 2005 – 2019 study period.

Among white households, rates of net in-migration have been modest and recently became negative.

Excluding Asian and white households, rates of in- and out-migration among other racial and ethnic groups were largely balanced over the past decade.

Page 12: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by CA Coastal Metropolitan Areas and InteriorIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

0

2000

4000

6000

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Region Coast Interior

Migration flows to and from CA coastal metro areas dominated those of the remainder of the state.

Rates of net in-migration to coastal CA metro areas remained positive in 2019 but have declined by roughly one-half since 2016. Rates of out-migration from coastal areas have trended up since 2012 whereas entrants to those areas have fallen back modestly.

Net in-migration to interior areas of CA declined in recent years, owing to ongoing trending up in rates of departure.

Page 13: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates of Tech Sector WorkersIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

0

1000

2000

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00) Net In-Migration

Net in-migration rates of tech sector workers fell by over two-thirds between 2015-2019, owing to a combination of downward adjustment in arrivals coupled with ongoing trending up in departures.

Notwithstanding, in 2019, rates of net in-migration of tech sector workers remained positive.

Page 14: Recent Trends in California Migration

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Year

Pred

icte

d Pr

obab

ility

of L

eavi

ng C

alifo

rnia

Predicted probability of leaving California for college-educated, tech workers aged 25-40 residing in coastal areas

We used logistic regression to estimate the probability of leaving CA among young, college-educated tech workers residing in metro coastal areas of CA. That probability trended up significantly between 2010 – 2019 to levels last seen in the mid-2000s.

Page 15: Recent Trends in California Migration

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

Year

Pred

icte

d Pr

obab

ility

of L

eavi

ng C

alifo

rnia

Region Coast Interior

Predicted probability of leaving California for white, high school educated residents aged 60+ from either Coastal or Interior California

We similarly used logistic regression to estimate the probability of leaving CA among white, high school educated, retirees from either coastal metro or interior areas.

Results indicate the exit probability of that group has trended up in recent years but remains low in magnitude and similar to levels recorded in the mid-2000s.

Page 16: Recent Trends in California Migration

Some Takeaways

• This presentation provides a cautionary note in assessment of CA migration trends. While net in-migration to CA remained positive through 2019, it has declined in recent years owing to acombination of increased exits and damped entry.

• Among young (25-39) and high human capital (college educated) persons as well as CA metro coastal areas, rates of net in-migration remained positive but declined by roughly one-half in recent years. Similar outcomes were evidenced for earners in the top and bottom income quartiles as well as for the top 5 percent of earners.

• In recent years, net exits from CA were evidenced for middle-income (second and third income quartile) and for white residents of the state.

• Net in-migration rates of Asian households were elevated relative to other groups and little changed over the 2005 – 2019 study period. Rates of in- and out-migration were largely balanced among other racial and ethnic groups.

16

Page 17: Recent Trends in California Migration

Takeaways (con’t)

• Net In-migration to CA of tech sector workers as measured in both absolute flows and rates trendedup markedly through 2015 but have fallen back in recent years. Tech worker in-migration to CAremained positive in 2019.

• That decline is consistent with the high costs of housing in coastal California as well as diffusion of techmore generally to emergent agglomerations elsewhere in the U.S. Popular destinations of that groupincluded Texas, Washington State, and New York.

• Results of logistic regression suggest that the probability of California departure among young, college-educated, tech sector workers more than doubled over the past decade.

• Overall, findings suggest ongoing but diminished attractiveness of CA among younger, more highly educated, urban and tech employed households across the income spectrum. Results suggest similar outcomes among lower human capital retiree populations.

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Page 18: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top State Destinations of California Migrants by Income Quartile

TexasArizonaNevadaWashingtonOregon

TexasArizonaNevadaOregonWashington

TexasArizonaNevadaWashingtonOregon

TexasWashingtonArizonaNevadaOregon

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Share of Group Migration (%)

Inco

me

Qua

rtile

Page 19: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top Origin States of Migrants to California by Income Quartile

TexasArizonaWashingtonNevadaNew York

NevadaArizonaTexasWashingtonNew York

New YorkTexasArizonaWashingtonNevada

New YorkTexasWashingtonIllinoisArizona

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Share of Group Migration (%)

Inco

me

Qua

rtile

Page 20: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top Origin States of Migrants to California by Age

New York

TexasWashington

Arizona

Florida

Arizona

Texas

NevadaWashington

New York

Arizona

NevadaWashington

Oregon

Texas

25-39 y.o.

40-59 y.o.

60+ y.o.

Share of Group Migration (%)

Age

Page 21: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top Origin States of Migrants to California by Educational Attainment

Arizona

Nevada

Texas

Washington

Florida

New York

Texas

Illinois

Washington

Florida

High School

College

Share of Group Migration (%)

Educ

atio

n

Page 22: Recent Trends in California Migration

Top Origin States of High Income Migrants to California

Texas

Arizona

New YorkWashington

Nevada

New York

TexasWashington

Illinois

Florida

New York

TexasWashington

Illinois

Arizona

Bottom 90%

Top 5-10%

Top 5%

Share of Group Migration (%)

Inco

me

Bra

cket

Page 23: Recent Trends in California Migration

Definition of Technology Occupations

• Our definition uses the set of occupations defined in Beckhusen, Julia, “Occupations in Information Technology”, American Community Survey Reports, ACS-35, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 2016

• The set of technology occupations is the following:Computer and Information Systems Managers, Computer Scientists and Systems Analysts/Network systems Analysts/Web Developers Computer ProgrammersSoftware Developers, Applications and Systems SoftwareComputer Support SpecialistsDatabase AdministratorsNetwork and Computer Systems Administrators

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Page 24: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by AgeIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

100

200

300

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

0

40

80

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Age25-39 y.o.

40-59 y.o.

60+ y.o.

Page 25: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by Educational AttainmentIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

100

200

300

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

0

50

100

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

EducationHigh School

College

Page 26: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by Income PercentileIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

50

100

150

200

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

0

30

60

90

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Income percentiles are computed each year based on income from current California residents.

IncomeFirst Quartile

Second Quartile

Third Quartile

Fourth Quartile

Top 5%

Page 27: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by RaceIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

100

200

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

-50

0

50

100

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

RaceAsian

Black

Hispanic

Other

White

Page 28: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by CA Coast and InteriorIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

100

200

300

400

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

0

40

80

120

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Region

Coast

Interior

Page 29: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows of Tech Sector WorkersIncluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

10

20

30

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

0

5

10

15

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Page 30: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by AgeExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

50

100

150

200

250

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Age25-39 y.o.

40-59 y.o.

60+ y.o.

Page 31: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by AgeExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

-750

-500

-250

0

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Age25-39 y.o.

40-59 y.o.

60+ y.o.

Page 32: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by CA Coast and InteriorExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

100

200

300

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

-120

-80

-40

0

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Region

Coast

Interior

Page 33: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by CA Coast and InteriorExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

5000

10000

15000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Region

Coast

Interior

Page 34: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by Educational AttainmentExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

100

200

300

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

-100

-50

0

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

EducationHigh School

College

Page 35: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by Educational AttainmentExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

-900

-600

-300

0

300

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

EducationHigh School

College

Page 36: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by Income PercentileExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

50

100

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Income percentiles are computed each year based on income from current California residents.

IncomeFirst Quartile

Second Quartile

Third Quartile

Fourth Quartile

Top 5%

Page 37: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by Income PercentileExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

-800

-400

0

400

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Income percentiles are computed each year based on income from current California residents.

IncomeFirst Quartile

Second Quartile

Third Quartile

Fourth Quartile

Top 5%

Page 38: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows by RaceExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

100

200

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

-80

-40

0

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

RaceAsian

Black

Hispanic

Other

White

Page 39: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates by RaceExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

-1000

-500

0

500

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

RaceAsian

Black

Hispanic

Other

White

Page 40: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Flows of Tech Sector WorkersExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

5

10

15

20

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

)

Gross Migration

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

Year

Tota

l Mig

rant

s (t

hous

ands

) Net In-Migration

Page 41: Recent Trends in California Migration

Migration Rates of Tech Sector WorkersExcluding International Immigrants

In-Migration Out-Migration

0

1000

2000

3000

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Gross Migration

-1000

-500

0

500

Year

Rat

e (p

er 1

00,0

00)

Net In-Migration

Page 42: Recent Trends in California Migration

Definition of California Coast and Interior Regions

42

The following counties are categorized as coastal: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, SonomaThe remainder is categorized as interior

Page 43: Recent Trends in California Migration

Assignment of Race of Migrant

Definition of Race CategoriesThe ACS contains two relevant raw variables: Race and HispanicWe build our code using the following algorithm:Black: Race = BlackWhite: Race = WhiteAsian: Race = AsianHispanic: Hispanic = YesOther: Other CasesThis assignment of race leads to the following case counts over the period of analysisCategory Count PercentageWhite 2,795,279 47.6Hispanic 1,700,297 29.0Asian 921,361 15.7Black 301,316 5.1Other 150,860 2.6

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Page 44: Recent Trends in California Migration

Recent International Immigrants Analysis

• The analysis focuses on foreign-born immigrants whose first time arrival in the US happened in the 2 years before the survey (hereafter “recent US immigrants”)

• It computes the percentage of those people who left California in the 12 months before the survey, to try and assess whether California acts as a gateway or as the long-term destination of recent US immigrants

• This analysis rests on the assumption that recent US immigrants who either are in California or just left it at the time of the survey lived only in California since their arrival in the US

• This assumption is not testable in our data, but seems reasonable given the short timeframe since arrival in the U.S.

44