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Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007
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Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

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Page 1: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and RedistrictingDavid Epstein

L6172: Law and Social Science

March 28, 2007

Page 2: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Let’s Start at the Very Beginning… Central result in analytical political science is

Arrow’s Theorem No method of aggregating preferences satisfies

five seemingly innocuous conditions

Contrast with First and Second Welfare Theorems in economics

Implications: Rules aren’t neutral

There’s no one best way to hold elections

Page 3: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Correcting Failures In economics, there are certain well-known

situations that lead to market failure Natural monopolies Externalities Informational asymmetries

These lead to a positive role for the government What is the equivalent for “democratic failure?”

What role should the courts play when there is no natural standard of efficiency to judge against?

Page 4: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Issue: Voting and Representation So institutions such as voting systems can

have significant effects on outcomes Any particular group can be over- or under-

represented, depending on the particular scheme

This is what the South did to prevent Blacks from voting post-Reconstruction Grandfather clause White-only primary At-large elections Full-ballot provisions/slates, etc.

Page 5: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

1965 Voting Rights Act Primer States would switch to a new tactic if their

current method of disenfranchisement was ruled unconstitutional Literacy tests Poll taxes

This led to the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) Section 2 (Vote Dilution)

Swept away all states laws imposing “tests or devices” on any individual’s right to vote

Made illegal all state & local laws that “deny or abridge” minorities’ right to vote

Permanent and (relatively) uncontroversial

Page 6: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

1965 Voting Rights Act Primer Section 5 (Preclearance)

Covered states must receive federal approval for changes in laws that may affect voting Changes in Electoral Systems (but not legislative rules) Annexation/De-annexation of suburbs Redistricting

Not permanent; most recently renewed in 2007 Implementation

Standard for preclearance is retrogression I.e., couldn’t go back to at-large elections

Unclear how this applies to redistricting Assumption was that you would pass if you didn’t

reduce the number of majority-minority districts

Page 7: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Early Successes of the VRA Most immediate impact was to allow blacks to

register and vote in the South Black registration was ~5% in Mississippi before the

VRA Now White and Black voters register and vote in the same

proportion Under Section 2, many at-large systems were

replaced with districts Then Court said that discrimination had to be intentional

(Mobile v. Bolden, 1980) Congress responded with a results test in 1982 extension

Page 8: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Thornburg v. Gingles New Section 2 results clause was

implemented in a three-prong test:1. Minority community is cohesive;

2. Majority votes sufficiently as a bloc to usually defeat the minority’s preferred candidate; and

3. The minority is large enough to form a majority in at least one single-member district.

Needed to measure how many voters of one race vote for candidates of the other race.

Page 9: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Ecological Regression Do this by using ecological regression

Calculate votes for black and white candidates as a percent of total turnout

Run two regressions:1. %Votes(Black Cand.) = a + b*(%Black Voters)2. %Votes(White Cand.) = a + b*(%Black Voters)

Then calculate 1. Black Support Black Candidate2. Black Support White Candidate3. Black Rolloff

And the same for white voters

Page 10: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Ecological Fallacy First issue: allow covariates?

No, since we don’t care why voters of one race cast their ballots in a particular way.

Second issue: ecological fallacy Don’t know if the trend is due to changes in voter

behavior, or different types of voters E.g., white who live near blacks may vote differently

from those in surrounding areas No way to separate these two with aggregate level data

Current situation: use better and better statistical techniques to do the best you can with your data (EI)

Page 11: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Representation and the VRA A central debate on the VRA over the past 10-

15 years has centered on the tension between Descriptive Representation: A minority group can

elect its candidates of choice to office; and Substantive Representation: Policies favored by the

minority community are passed into law. Is there a tradeoff between these goals? If so, which should states be forced/allowed to

pursue, e.g., when redistricting?

Page 12: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Trends in Electing Minorities to CongressDescriptive Representation

Minority office holding has increased greatly over the past three decades Historically, this has been due almost entirely to the creation of

majority-minority districts Now these districts are becoming less necessary for the election

of black representatives Still significant differences in the ability of blacks to

gain office in the South as opposed to other states Hispanic representation forms an intermediary case

Tracks black representation by about 20 years12

Page 13: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

01

02

03

04

0

95 100 105 110Congress

Black Reps. Hispanic Reps.

Minority Representatives Elected to Congress, 1974-2004

Black

Hispanic

Page 14: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

01

02

03

04

0

95 100 105 110Congress

Black Reps. Hispanic Reps.Maj-Black Dists. Maj-Hisp Dists.

Minority Representatives Elected to Congress, 1974-2004

For the first time, there are now more majority-Hispanic districts than majority-Black districts

Black

Hispanic

Page 15: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

CA

CT

IL

IN

MD

MI

MO

NJ

NY

OHPA

WI

AL

AR

FL

GA

KY

LA

MS

NC

OK

SC

TN

TX

VA

South

Non-South

05

10

15

20

Pe

rcen

t Bla

ck R

epre

sen

tativ

es E

lect

ed

0 10 20 30State Black Voting Age Population

Black Representatives Elected By State, 1974-2004

Page 16: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

AZ

CA

CO

FL

ILNJ

NM

NY

TX

South

Non-South

Hispanic

01

02

03

0P

erc

ent M

inor

ity R

epr

ese

ntat

ive

s E

lect

ed

0 10 20 30 40State Black Voting Age Population/Hispanic Voting Age Population

Minority Representatives Elected By State, 1974-2004

Intermediate case: Hispanics more responsive than blacks in south, but less than blacks outside of south

Page 17: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Trends in Passing LegislationSubstantive Representation

But the picture regarding substantive representation is less clear

Measuring substantive representation through roll calls Start with Congressional Quarterly Key Votes for each Congress See which way the majority of the Black/Hispanic representatives voted Call that a vote in the “pro-minority” direction

Use this to score all representatives as the percent of times they voted with the majority of minority representatives

Similar exercise has been done using all roll call votes, rather than just CQ Key Votes, with similar results

Results Hispanic substantive representation has increased overall over the past 30

years But for blacks it has stayed almost constant, and even declined a bit in

recent years17

Page 18: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

.45

.5.5

5.6

.65

Pe

rcen

tage

Min

orit

y S

uppo

rt

95 100 105 110Congress

Black Hispanic

Minority Support on Congressional Key Votes, 1974-2004

Declining support for minority-held position on roll calls.

Hispanic

Black

Page 19: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Georgia v. Ashcroft These issues are becoming even more acute

now, in light of the most important Supreme Court decision on the VRA in recent years. Georgia had reduced black populations in

concentrated minority districts. DOJ refused Section 5 preclearance, arguing that

the districting plan was retrogressive. Supreme Court overruled, said that states could

legitimately pursue substantive representation. Opens the door to more of this type of tradeoff.

Page 20: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Pre-Ashcroft Preclearance Based on number of minority(-supported)

candidates elected to office. This, in turn, was measured by the number of

districts effectively controlled by minorities. Used to be “65% rule” Then changed to majority-minority

In the 1990’s, the DOJ forced southern states to create more majority-minority districts. Often bizarrely shaped…

Page 21: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Louisiana 4th (Black majority)

“Mark of Zorro”

Page 22: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

New York 12th (Hispanic Maj.)

“Bullwinkle”

Page 23: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Illinois 4th (Hispanic majority)

“Pair of Earmuffs”

Page 24: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Georgia 11th (Black majority)

“French Poodle Attacking with a Hatchet”

Page 25: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Retrogression and Polarization The counting-districts approach to assessing

retrogression works best when districts are either minority-controlled or not. Districting becomes a “black-and-white” issue

This implicitly assumes high degrees of polarization in the electorate.

When polarization decreases, this approach breaks down. (Pildes 2002)

Page 26: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

0.5

1P

roba

bilit

y of

Ele

ctin

g B

lack

Rep

.

0 50 57.5 100Percent Black Voting Age Population

Electability: High Polarization

Page 27: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Page 28: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Minority Control

Page 29: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

0.5

1P

roba

bilit

y of

Ele

ctin

g B

lack

Rep

.

0 40 50 100Percent Black Voting Age Population

Electability: Low Polarization

Page 30: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Minority Control

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

LowPolarization

Page 31: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Minority Control

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

Coali-tional

LowPolarization

Page 32: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Minority Control

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

PS

Coali-tional

ProbableControl

LowPolarization

Page 33: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Minority Control

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

SafeControl

PS PP

Coali-tional

ProbableControl

Packing

LowPolarization

Page 34: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Minority Control

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

SafeControl

PS PP

Coali-tional

ProbableControl

Packing

LowPolarization

PI

Influence

Page 35: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

HighPolarization

Measuring Descriptive Representation

Minority Control

% BVAP

0

P*

50 100

No Minority Control

SafeControl

PS PP

Coali-tional

ProbableControl

Packing

LowPolarization

PI

Influence

How to make tradeoffs?

Page 36: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Need for New Standards Current situation is characterized by low(er)

polarization over the past 30 years. Now 15-20% net crossover in the South.

Need a standard for retrogression in descriptive representation not based on district categories. State may show that “gains in the plan as a whole

offset the loss in a particular district.” Also evidence of an emerging tradeoff between

substantive and descriptive representation. Ashcroft addresses this directly for the first time.

Page 37: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Substantive

DescriptiveParetoFrontier

Ashcroft & Substantive Representation

Page 38: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Substantive

Descriptive

SQ

ParetoFrontier

Ashcroft & Substantive Representation

Page 39: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Substantive

Descriptive

SQ

1

2 3

4

ParetoFrontier

Ashcroft & Substantive Representation

Page 40: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Substantive

Descriptive

SQ

1

2 3

4

ParetoFrontier

Ashcroft & Substantive Representation

Pre-Ashcroft

X X

Page 41: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Substantive

Descriptive

SQ

1

2 3

4

ParetoFrontier

Ashcroft & Substantive Representation

Post-Ashcroft

X

Page 42: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Substantive

Descriptive

SQ

1

2 3

4 P

ParetoFrontier

Ashcroft & Substantive Representation

X

A move to P is now non-retrogressive,if supported by minority community.

Page 43: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Measuring Representation Ashcroft thus calls for

A new measure of descriptive representation based on a statewide assessment of electoral possibilities

A consistent measure of substantive representation that can be used to prospectively evaluate districting plans

Social science has well-developed methods to address both of these issues Calculating the probability of electing different types of

representatives, based on district characteristics Summarizing voting behavior in legislatures

These are continuous measures, avoiding the categorization problem

Page 44: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

1. Determine relationship BVAP Roll Call Voting in Congress (Representation Effect)

BVAPVSE ,θ|

RepresentationEquation

Methodology To measure expected substantive representation:

BVAPVSE |

2. Determine relationship BVAP Type of Representative Elected (Electoral Effect)

BVAPP |θ

ElectoralEquation

θ

3. Combine 1 & 2 to calculate average expected Vote Score across districts.

Page 45: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Electoral Equations Collect outcomes for all relevant elections Estimate BVAPType Elected

Republican White Democrat Black Democrat (“Candidate of Choice”)

This yields the probability that each type of representative is elected, given district BVAP

Page 46: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=41%

1975 to 1982

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=36%

1983 to 19900

.51

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=38%

1991 to 1998

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=36%

1999 to 2006

Rep

Rep Rep

Rep

WD

WD

WD

WD BDBD

BDBD

Electing Blacks to Congress, Non-South

Election probabilities are fairly constant outside the south.

Page 47: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=96%

1975 to 1982

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=79%

1983 to 19900

.51

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=45%

1991 to 1998

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

PEO=42%

1999 to 2006

Rep

Rep

Rep

Rep

WD

WD

WD

WD BDBD

BDBD

Electing Blacks to Congress, South

Increase in the probability of electing blacks in the south.

Page 48: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Representation Equations

Collect all individual votes in the legislature. For each vote, determine which way the majority of

minority representatives cast their ballots Count this as a vote in the “right” direction

For each legislator, calculate the percent of times they voted with the black majority This is their “Black Support Score” Can weight by degree of unanimity among black reps.

For each subgroup, estimate BVAPSupport Score

Page 49: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

0.2

.4.6

.81

Bla

ck S

uppo

rt S

core

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

1975 to 1982

0.2

.4.6

.81

Bla

ck S

uppo

rt S

core

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

1983 to 19900

.2.4

.6.8

1B

lack

Sup

port

Sco

re

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

1991 to 1998

0.2

.4.6

.81

Bla

ck S

uppo

rt S

core

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Black Voting Age Population

1999 to 2006

Roll Call Support for Blacks, Non-South

White Democrats supportive of minority policy positions

Black Dems

White Dems

Reps

Page 50: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

.2.4

.6.8

1B

lack

Sup

port

Sco

re

0 .2 .4 .6 .8Black Voting Age Population

1975 to 1982

.2.4

.6.8

1B

lack

Sup

port

Sco

re

0 .2 .4 .6 .8Black Voting Age Population

1983 to 1990.2

.4.6

.81

Bla

ck S

uppo

rt S

core

0 .2 .4 .6 .8Black Voting Age Population

1991 to 1998

.2.4

.6.8

1B

lack

Sup

port

Sco

re

0 .2 .4 .6 .8Black Voting Age Population

1999 to 2006

Roll Call Support for Blacks, South

Southern democrats increased support for black policy positions

White Dems

Reps

Black Dems

Page 51: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

The Emerging Pareto Frontier

95

96

97

9899

100 101

102

103

104

105

.5.5

2.5

4.5

6.5

8.6

Pe

rcen

t of V

ote

s A

gre

eing

with

Bla

ck M

ajo

rity

.03 .05 .07 .09Percent Black Democrats Among All Representatives

All Districts

Page 52: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Georgia’s Gerrymander

Range Baseline Proposed

0-25 31 26

25-40 11 17

40-50 2 0

50-60 2 8

60+ 10 5

Plan: Reallocate black voters to elect Democrats

Page 53: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Is This Retrogression?

Page 54: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Georgia Legislative Elections, 1991-2002

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pro

babi

lity

of E

lect

ion

0 .25 .5 .75 1Black Voting Age Population

Republicans White Dems Black Dems

Page 55: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Georgia Black Support Scores, 1999-2002

.4.6

.81

Bla

ck S

uppo

rt S

core

0 .2 .4 .6 .8Black Voting Age Population

Republicans White Dems Black Dems

Page 56: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Descriptive Representation

Plan Influence Coalition Maj-Min E(CoC)

Baseline (1999) 12 1 10 11.2

Baseline (2000) 12 1 12 13.6

Proposed 17 0 13 12.5

Interim (2002) 17 0 13 12.9

Slight fewer candidates of choice elected.

Page 57: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Substantive Representation

Increase in mean and median vote scores.

Plan Mean Median

Baseline (1999) 59.0% 46.1%

Baseline (2000) 62.3% 50.2%

Proposed 66.6% 75.9%

Interim (2002) 65.9% 69.2%

Page 58: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

58

Renewal of the Voting Rights Act These themes have been played out in recent court cases and

the renewal of the Voting Rights Act. Recently, certain expiring provisions of the Voting Rights Act

(including Section 5) were up for renewal. Last summer, Congress passed a bill extending these

section for another 25 years. In the legislation, descriptive representation was given

primary importance. This was described as an attempt to overrule Ashcroft.

How does this affect what states can do?

Page 59: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Interpretations of the Renewal Act

There are three possibilities, in increasing order of latitude for states:

1. No district can ever have its level of BVAP reduced2. No district can have its level of BVAP reduced beyond a certain

point, which might bea. The level of BVAP needed for a “safe” districtb. 50% BVAPc. The point of equal opportunity

3. The overall probability of electing minorities to a legislature cannot be reduced

Option (1) seems too restrictive: a “ratchet effect” And 2(b) gives primacy to an arbitrary cutoff number

So the real candidates are 2(a), 2(c), and 3.59

Page 60: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Interpretations of the Renewal Act The courts may be revisiting these issues soon, as the

constitutionality of the renewed VRA is being challenged. The renewal placed a number of limits on states’ ability to act independent

of the federal government. This goes against the Court’s recent trend towards supporting states’ rights

(the New Federalism). The real danger is that this will open up the entire Act for

judicial review, with uncertain consequences. Brings us back to the fundamental questions of minorities in a

democratic society: Are strong protections for minority voters still necessary to enforce their

incorporation into the political order? Or do these hinder the development of “normal politics,” in which special

protections are no longer needed? 60

Page 61: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

The Coming Debate Congress is soon going to have to consider

exactly these issues, as it decides what to do with Ashcroft in a renewed Section 5.

These issues are important not just with respect to the VRA and its renewal. How do we think about the goals and purposes of

political representation in democracies? How can institutions best afford minorities

influence over policy in a majoritarian system?

Page 62: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

Overall Trends in Representation

These figures show that majority-minority districting has been a successful strategy for electing minorities to office. For Hispanics, has been good for substantive representation too.

For blacks, however, we see a disjuncture between increased descriptive representation and flat or declining substantive representation.

Analyze this by estimating the changing relationship between District composition and the type of representative elected The type of representative elected and their support for minority-preferred

policies in roll call votes.

This will yield the redistricting “hazard rate” of electing representatives less supportive of minority policies.

62

Page 63: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1bvap

1975 to 1980

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1bvap

1981 to 19860

.51

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1bvap

1987 to 1992

0.5

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1bvap

1993 to 2000

Probability of Electing Different Types of Representatives

65.4% 42.2%

Southern Congressional Districts

Page 64: Racial and Partisan Issues in Voting and Redistricting David Epstein L6172: Law and Social Science March 28, 2007.

.2.4

.6.8

1B

lack

Sup

port

Sco

re

0 .1 .2 .3 .4Black Voting Age Population

1975 to 1980

.2.4

.6.8

1B

lack

Sup

port

Sco

re

0 .2 .4 .6Black Voting Age Population

1981 to 1986.2

.4.6

.81

Bla

ck S

uppo

rt S

core

0 .2 .4 .6Black Voting Age Population

1987 to 1992

.2.4

.6.8

1B

lack

Sup

port

Sco

re

0 .2 .4 .6 .8Black Voting Age Population

1992 to 2000

Substantive Representation, South