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SUB-SOVEREIGN CREDIT OPINION 9 December 2019 Update RATINGS Alberta, Province of Domicile Canada Long Term Rating Aa2 Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Adam Hardi CFA 416-214-3636 AVP-Analyst [email protected] Michael Yake 416-214-3865 VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Alejandro Olivo 52-55-1253-5742 Associate Managing Director [email protected] David Rubinoff 44-20-7772-1398 MD-Sub Sovereigns [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Province of Alberta (Canada) Update following rating downgrade Summary The credit profile of the Province of Alberta (Aa2 stable) reflects strong levels of liquidity from cash and investments, significant fiscal capacity and a strong institutional framework. These credit strengths are balanced by a structural weakness in the oil sector as a key driver of the provincial economy which is currently pressured by constraints on market access and a lack of significant new oil-related investments and oil transportation bottlenecks which limits its ability to transport higher volumes to international markets. The credit profile also reflects continued large deficits with a provincially projected return to balance in 2022/23 and a rising debt burden that will stabilize at a higher level than we previously forecasted. Nevertheless, debt affordability remains strong. Exhibit 1 Debt burden will stabilize at an elevated level, but debt affordability (interest/revenue) is strong 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Net debt as a % of revenue [L] Interest expense as a % of revenue [R] Debt burden calculation for 2020F and beyond have been adjusted for the expected dissolution of the Alberta Capital Finance Authority (ACFA) Source: Moody's; Alberta budget and financial statements Credit strengths » Strong levels of liquidity from cash and investments » Significant fiscal flexibility to address fiscal pressures » Stable institutional framework that offers high level of policy flexibility Credit challenges » Weakness in oil sector weighs on revenue growth » Debt burden projected to stabilize at an elevated level
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Province of Alberta (Canada) · 2020-04-30 · Province of Alberta (Canada) Update following rating downgrade Summary The credit profile of the Province of Alberta (Aa2 stable) reflects

May 25, 2020

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Page 1: Province of Alberta (Canada) · 2020-04-30 · Province of Alberta (Canada) Update following rating downgrade Summary The credit profile of the Province of Alberta (Aa2 stable) reflects

SUB-SOVEREIGN

CREDIT OPINION9 December 2019

Update

RATINGS

Alberta, Province ofDomicile Canada

Long Term Rating Aa2

Type Senior Unsecured - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Adam Hardi CFA [email protected]

Michael Yake 416-214-3865VP-Senior [email protected]

Alejandro Olivo 52-55-1253-5742Associate Managing [email protected]

David Rubinoff 44-20-7772-1398MD-Sub [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Province of Alberta (Canada)Update following rating downgrade

SummaryThe credit profile of the Province of Alberta (Aa2 stable) reflects strong levels of liquidityfrom cash and investments, significant fiscal capacity and a strong institutional framework.These credit strengths are balanced by a structural weakness in the oil sector as a key driverof the provincial economy which is currently pressured by constraints on market access anda lack of significant new oil-related investments and oil transportation bottlenecks whichlimits its ability to transport higher volumes to international markets. The credit profile alsoreflects continued large deficits with a provincially projected return to balance in 2022/23and a rising debt burden that will stabilize at a higher level than we previously forecasted.Nevertheless, debt affordability remains strong.

Exhibit 1

Debt burden will stabilize at an elevated level, but debt affordability (interest/revenue) is strong

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F

Net debt as a % of revenue [L] Interest expense as a % of revenue [R]

Debt burden calculation for 2020F and beyond have been adjusted for the expected dissolution of the Alberta Capital FinanceAuthority (ACFA)Source: Moody's; Alberta budget and financial statements

Credit strengths

» Strong levels of liquidity from cash and investments

» Significant fiscal flexibility to address fiscal pressures

» Stable institutional framework that offers high level of policy flexibility

Credit challenges

» Weakness in oil sector weighs on revenue growth

» Debt burden projected to stabilize at an elevated level

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN

» Significant contingent liabilities

Rating outlookThe stable outlook on Alberta’s rating reflects our assumption that the pace of debt accumulation will moderate given the scaling backof the capital plan and the expected improvements in future deficits. As a result, interest expense will also stabilize near current levels.The stable outlook also reflects our view that the impact of expected fiscal and economic challenges are sufficiently captured in therevised rating.

Factors that could lead to an upgradeUpward rating pressure can arise from significant fiscal improvements that allows the province to accelerate its timeline to return tobalance, or from a sustained reduction in debt burden (adjusted for the anticipated impact of the dissolution of ACFA) below 170% ofrevenues. A sustained improvement in the outlook for the energy sector resulting in increased revenue potential for the province couldalso lead to upward pressure on the rating.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeDownward pressure on the rating could result from a failure to successfully contain deficits, extending the timeframe to return tobalance significantly beyond 2022/23. A faster than anticipated rise in debt, leading to a material, sustained increase in the debtburden, a reduction in liquidity, or a material deterioration in the financial health of its large crown corporations, including ATBFinancial, could also result in downward rating pressure.

Key indicators

Province of Alberta(Year Ending March 31) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F

Net Direct and Indirect Debt as a % of Revenues 60.1 90.3 115.5 136.7 175.2 193.5 194.1

Net Direct and Indirect Debt as a % of GDP 7.9 12.6 16.5 19.7 24.7 26.7 27.1

Cash Financing Surplus (Requirement) as a % of Revenues (26.3) (27.3) (28.2) (27.6) (25.8) (21.9) (21.9)

Consolidated Surplus (Deficit) as a % of Revenues (15.1) (25.5) (17.0) (13.5) (16.5) (10.9) (10.9)

Total Interest Expense as a % of Revenues 1.8 2.4 3.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0

Intergovernmental Transfers as a % of Revenues 16.8 18.9 16.1 16.1 18.3 17.6 17.6

Real GDP Growth (%) [1] (3.5) 4.8 1.6 0.6 2.7 2.9 2.9

[1] Debt burden calculation for 2020F and beyond has been adjusted for ACFA dissolution[2] Corresponds to calendar year. 2020 and subsequent GDP figures represent forecasts.Source: Moody's Investors Service, Province of Alberta

Detailed credit considerationsThe credit profile of the Province of Alberta, as expressed in its Aa2 stable rating, combines a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of aa3,and a high likelihood of extraordinary support coming from the Government of Canada (Aaa stable) in the event that the provincefaced acute liquidity stress.

Baseline credit assessmentStrong levels of liquidity from cash and investmentsAlberta continues to maintain very significant holdings of cash, liquid investments and long-term portfolio investments. We estimatecash, short-term investments and portfolio investment to be approximately CAD 40 billion at March 31, 2020, covering 45% ofMoody’s-adjusted net debt. We forecast that this level will weaken to approximately 37% over the next three years primarily as debtcontinues to increase, but will remain very strong relative to Canadian provincial peers.

Liquid investments projected for March 31, 2020 include CAD 14.5 billion in cash and cash equivalent investments and portfolio fundsof CAD 20.5 billion, which include the CAD 16.2 billion (book value) Heritage Savings Trust Fund and various funds and endowmentfunds. Although the province's policy is to protect principal held in the Heritage Fund, a long-term savings fund created to invest a

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN

portion of Alberta's oil revenues for the benefit of future generations, in recent years the fund's net income has been used to supportprogram expenses.

Alberta’s liquidity is important because it provides a buffer for bondholders against budget deficits and rising debt costs. While liquiditymetrics relative to expenses have been declining in recent years, we expect that cash and investments net of sinking funds will coveraround 70-75% of expenditures over the next three years, levels that continue to compare favourably against provincial peers despiteweaker than historical levels.

Significant fiscal flexibility to address fiscal pressuresAlberta maintains considerable flexibility to address its deficits through both revenue and expense measures, although the recentlyelected conservative government will focus primarily on expenditure controls to achieve its targets. For the next three years, theprovince projects that fiscal results will improve by around CAD 3 billion annually (net of contingencies). Expenditure controls includespending reductions, much of which were recommended by the government-commissioned MacKinnon report released in September,by shrinking the public sector by nearly 8% by 2022/23 (mainly from attrition) and reducing funding for higher education and grantsfor municipalities. As a result, some of the fiscal pressure will be passed on to the broader public sector, alleviating the province’s fiscalburden. Nevertheless, we note that the province's forecast of a cumulative 2.8% decline in operating expenses by 2022/23 is ambitiousand will require sustained political discipline.

Many of the government’s revenue measures are made with the aim to improve business competitiveness, including repealing thecarbon tax and including a 1% annual reduction in the corporate tax rate from 12% to 8% between 2019/20 and 2022/23. Althoughthese two measures will remove nearly CAD 2 billion from annual revenues, they improve Alberta’s fiscal capacity for future years.In addition, Alberta’s tax regime remains competitive relative to the majority of its provincial peers for both corporate and personalincome taxes; for example, personal income under CAD 131,220 (2019) is taxed at a flat 10%, one of the lowest within Canada.

Stable institutional framework that offers high level of policy flexibilityAlberta, like all Canadian provinces, enjoys significant flexibility in its financial management. Compared with their counterparts inother countries, such as the German Länder and the Australian states, Canadian provinces enjoy far greater autonomy in terms of boththe spending and revenue sides of their budgets. Unfettered access to a broad range of tax bases and the ability to alter expenditureprograms provide Canadian provinces with substantial flexibility to meet fiscal challenges. As such, Canadian provinces benefit froma high degree of fiscal policy flexibility that is more akin to that of sovereign governments than to many of their international sub-sovereign peers. These positive institutional factors increase Canadian provinces' ability to manage through economic downturns andhandle relatively high debt burdens.

Alberta also benefits from stable and predictable support from the federal government that includes federal transfers for health care,home care and social services as well as infrastructure program transfers. The majority of these transfers tend to be determined well inadvance of payment based on a per capita formula with a high degree of transparency and predictability. Federal transfers for 2019/20also include a CAD 230 million top-up for the gas tax rebates, and CAD 252 million payment from the fiscal stabilization program forrevenue declines related for 2016/17. The fiscal stabilization program was created to provide payments to provinces which experiencedeclines in their non-resource revenues exceeding 5%, although payments are capped at CAD 60/capita which limits Alberta's eligibilityfor payments.

Weakness in oil sector weighs on revenue growthThe provincial economy is concentrated and dependent on non-renewable resources, primarily in oil, which leads to volatility infinancial performance. The province remains constrained by a lack of sufficient pipeline capacity to transport oil efficiently, coupledwith our expectation of no significant near-term rebound in oil-related investments. The weakness in the non-renewable naturalresource sector contributed to significant consolidated deficits over the last five years. The recently elected government forecastsmaterial consolidated deficits to continue over the next two years, reaching a Moody's-projected 16.5% of revenues in 2019/20 and10.9% in 2020/21 before returning to fiscal balance by 2022/23 (CAD 0.6 billion, or 1.0% of revenue), one year earlier than targeted bythe previous government.

Alberta generates about 10% of its total revenues from non-renewable natural resources (10.9% in 2018/19), a sizeable amountbut well below its historically higher share of 18-30% prior to 2014/15. Despite some diversifications of the composition of natural

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resources (oil, natural gas and coal), between 80-85% of natural resource revenues derive from bitumen and crude oil royalties. Inaddition, the energy sector permeates the provincial economy, business investment, housing and immigration which are closely tiedto the oil sector. As a result, oil-related macroeconomic trends, investments and prices are important of the province’s economic andfiscal profile.

The province’s multi-year forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices includes gradually rising prices from $57/barrel in 2019/20to $63/barrel by 2022/23, in the mid-range of Moody’s forecast of a medium-term band of $50-70/barrel. Nevertheless, oil pricevolatility has been historically very high, with a nearly $15/barrel range year-to-date in 2019 and a range of $22/barrel in 2018. Thisexposes the province to the risk of significant volatility in revenues. The province’s 2019/20 budget estimates that every $1/barrelchange in WTI oil prices impacts revenues by CAD 310 million, while every $1/barrel change in the light-heavy oil price differential willimpact revenues by CAD 280 million.

Exhibit 3

Volatility in oil prices and in the level of the light-heavy price differential create revenue volatility

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

US

D/b

bl

Differential WCS WTI Moody's Oil Price Projection - Lower Band Moody's Oil Price Projection - Upper Band

Source: Moody's Investors Service, Bloomberg

The lack of pipeline egress has already contributed to a steep widening in the light-heavy oil price differential during 2018, depressingprovincial resource revenues. Gradually easing production curtailments starting in early 2019, put in place by the previous governmentbut continued under the current administration, helped narrow the differential, easing some of the province’s revenue pressures butsuppressing new investment in the oil & gas sector. The province will continue to face capacity constraints including shipment byrail until proposed pipeline projects are completed, including Enbridge’s Line 3 replacement (delayed until 2021), the Trans Mountainexpansion (which the province estimates for late 2022) and TransCanada’s Keystone XL expansion (estimated for 2023). Despite somerecent positive news on pipeline construction, these projects continue to be hampered by significant delays due to legal and politicalopposition.

The recovery in provincial resource revenues is strongly dependent on the successful completion of approved pipeline projects whichare important in order to alleviate transportation bottlenecks, and will allow the province to consistently move oil out of the provinceand diversify its export markets away from the US.

Debt burden projected to stabilize at an elevated levelAlberta's net direct and indirect debt will continue to rise as debt is needed to finance both a portion of deficits and capital projects.We estimate net direct and indirect debt to be around 175% of revenues at March 31, 2020 and rising to approach 195% over thefollowing two years before stabilizing and gradually declining.

The province estimates that it will need CAD 15.1 billion in borrowing for 2019/20, two-thirds of which is for new borrowing andone-third for refinancing existing debt. Alberta’s debt program is now one of the largest provincial borrowing programs in Canada.Nevertheless, the province projects that the amount of new financing requirement will fall each year through its 2019/20 to 2022/23budget horizon and more of the borrowing needs will be for refinancing maturing debt (around 40%), as the recently electedgovernment indicated curbing the rise in debt as one of its important priorities.

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We previously excluded from our calculations of Alberta's net debt metrics the debt of the Alberta Capital Finance authority (ACFA)given our view of ACFA as a self-supporting entity. With the expected near-term dissolution of ACFA, we no longer consider thisdebt as self-supporting. The associated increase in the province's net debt due to this revised treatment of ACFA is credit neutral,because the repayment structure is not materially different than before and borrowers will service their obligations directly through theprovince. Alberta's debt burden net of the impact of ACFA is expected to be higher than we previously forecasted given the province'scontinued challenges including lower than anticipated revenues.

Nevertheless, debt affordability (interest/revenue) remains very strong. We forecast that debt will be around 5-6% over the next threeyears. The province also maintains very strong access to capital markets at favourable rates, and has a strong international investor baseas well. Debt is prudently managed and all foreign currency debt is fully hedged.

Significant contingent liabilitiesAlberta faces contingent liability risk via its provincially owned financial institution, ATB Financial, and from unfunded pension liabilities.The province guarantees ATB’s debt of around CAD 2.6 billion and customer deposits. We view these as contingent liabilities thatwould require the province to make payments should ATB require fiscal support from the province. The credit quality of ATB’s loanportfolio remained stable at September 30, 2019 gross impaired loans at 2% of the total loan portfolio, in line with year-end levels atMarch 31, 2019. Overall, we consider these levels as relatively small and not a significant credit driver.

The province also has unfunded pension liabilities of CAD 9.2 billion at March 31, 2019, or 18.6% of revenues which are proactivelymanaged the province. The pension liability has gradually declined over the past few years and we expect continued declines over thenext three years to approximately CAD 8 billion (13.7% of projected revenues) by 2022/23.

Extraordinary support considerationsMoody's assigns a high likelihood that the Government of Canada would act to prevent a default by Alberta. The high likelihood ofsupport reflects our assessment of the federal government's incentive to minimize the risk of potential disruptions to capital marketsif Alberta or any province were to default. It also indicates a moderately positive federal government policy stance as illustrated by theflexibility inherent in the system of federal-provincial transfers.

ESG considerationsHow environmental, social and governance risks inform our credit analysis of AlbertaMoody's takes into account the impact of environmental (E), social (S) and governance (G) factors when assessing sub-sovereignissuers' economic and financial strength. In the case of Alberta, we assess the materiality of ESG to the credit profile as follows:

Environmental considerations are material to Alberta’s credit profile and we consider environmental risk to be elevated. The importanceof the oil and gas sector, including large-scale development of oil sands coupled with other natural resource extraction makes Albertathe most carbon intensive region in Canada. Alberta’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the highest of all provinces, accountingfor about 38% of Canada’s total emissions. An industrial carbon tax on heavy emitters will result in some carbon reduction, but this isoffset by the elimination of a broader carbon tax. Alberta is also exposed to remediation costs of abandoned wells.

In addition, Alberta is susceptible to natural disasters including wildfires and floods. For example, the Fort McMurray wildfire in 2016was the largest in the province’s history and destroyed a significant portion of land, infrastructure and negatively affected air quality,leading to significant mitigation costs by the province.

Social considerations are also important to Alberta's credit profile. Alberta is challenged by the typical social risks relating to advancedeconomies including healthcare, housing and education as well as very high per capita healthcare spending which exert pressure onexpenditures and GDP growth. Alberta has the youngest overall provincial population which mitigates healthcare spending pressureswhile increasing education spending.

Governance considerations are material to Alberta’s credit profile, but overall governance risk is low. Financing planning is prudentwith forward-looking analysis through multi-year budgets and economic forecasts which allows the province to forecast and mitigateanticipated implications. Financial statements (public accounts) are transparent and audited by the provincial auditor general. Despitethe anticipated rise in debt, governance is strong and the province adheres to debt management guidelines including fully hedging allforeign currency debt issuances.

5 9 December 2019 Province of Alberta (Canada): Update following rating downgrade

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN

Further details are provided in the “Detailed credit considerations” section above. Our approach to ESG is explained in our cross-sectormethodology General Principles for Assessing Environmental, Social and Governance Risks.

Rating methodology and scorecard factorsThe assigned BCA of aa3 is one notch below the scorecard-indicated BCA of aa2. The scorecard-indicated outcome of aa2 reflects (1)an idiosyncratic risk of 4 (presented below) on a 1 to 9 scale, where 1 represents the strongest relative credit quality and 9 the weakest;and (2) a systemic risk of Aaa, as reflected in the sovereign bond rating of the Government of Canada (Aaa stable).

For details of our rating approach, please refer to Rating Methodology: Regional and Local Governments, 16 January 2018.

Province of Alberta

Baseline Credit Assessment Score Value Sub-factor Weighting Sub-factor Total Factor Weighting Total

Scorecard

Factor 1: Economic Fundamentals

Economic strength 1 132.99 70% 2.2 20% 0.44

Economic volatility 5 30%

Factor 2: Institutional Framework

Legislative background 1 50% 1 20% 0.20

Financial flexibility 1 50%

Factor 3: Financial Performance and Debt Profile

Gross operating balance / operating revenues (%) 9 -9.23 12.5% 4.5 30% 1.35

Interest payments / operating revenues (%) 5 3.49 12.5%

Liquidity 1 25%

Net direct and indirect debt / operating revenues (%) 7 136.70 25%

Short-term direct debt / total direct debt (%) 3 15.20 25%

Factor 4: Governance and Management - MAX

Risk controls and financial management 5 5 30% 1.50

Investment and debt management 1

Transparency and disclosure 1

Idiosyncratic Risk Assessment 3.49(3)

Systemic Risk Assessment Aaa

Suggested BCA aa2

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Ratings

Exhibit 5

Category Moody's RatingALBERTA, PROVINCE OF

Outlook StableSenior Unsecured Aa2Commercial Paper P-1

ATB FINANCIAL

Outlook StableIssuer Rating -Dom Curr Aa2ST Issuer Rating -Dom Curr P-1

ALBERTA CAPITAL FINANCE AUTHORITY

Outlook StableBkd Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Aa2

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SUB-SOVEREIGN

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Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (includingcorporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating,agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and MIS also maintainpolicies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO andrated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually atwww.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s InvestorsService Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intendedto be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, yourepresent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly orindirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as tothe creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it feesranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1203533

7 9 December 2019 Province of Alberta (Canada): Update following rating downgrade

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8 9 December 2019 Province of Alberta (Canada): Update following rating downgrade