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Progress report Progress report on on estimation estimation of the GTS of the GTS costs costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment before printi
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Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

Mar 27, 2015

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Page 1: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

Progress reportProgress reportonon estimation estimation of the GTS of the GTS costscosts

CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS)

Please consider our Earth environment before printing

Page 2: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

1. Approach to estimationAnalysis of difficulties in estimation

(1) Great number of GTS components (2) Different types of GTS centers (3) Sensitive cost information (4) Ambiguous definition of the range of GTS

costs (5) Regional/national differentials in network

costs Assemble of methods (1) Sampling research (2) Modeling of classified centers (3) Collecting actual cost information on the

conditionof hiding center names

(4) Simplifying cost items (5) Investigation of telecom market in typical

regions Work and Outcome

(1) Estimation of total GTS costs(2) Trend and prospect(3) Reference to improvement

Page 3: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

2. Analysis of difficulties in estimation (1) The GTS consists of 222 nodes (centers), over 280 links

(circuits) and supplementary systems.

Page 4: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

(2) GTS centers are different in role, capability and scale.

Page 5: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

(3) In most centers, budget and cost issues are sensitive or confidential. However half of them are positive to cooperate in the estimation on the condition that the name of centers never appear in the report.

(4) It is difficult to define the range of GTS costs. According to the preliminary survey, the following cost

items are possibly dilute the value of expected information:National data collectionIndirect costs such as human resource and

environment costs(machine room, electricity, air-conditioning …)

(5) There are regional/national differentials in tariffs of

telecom carriers and ISPs. Especially developing countries on telecom monopoly situation should be checked.

Page 6: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

3. Assemble of methods in estimation (1) Modeling of classified GTS centers and sampling research

Models Items

Type 1: Lage scale(core RTHs on MTN)

Type 2: Medium scale

(RTHs on MTN and/or non-MTN)

Type 3: Small scale(NMCs)

Type 4: Minimum scale

(Landline leaf-node NMCs)

Message Switching

System (MSS)

•Redundant configuration (e.g. hot stand-by)* Performance to switch 500 messages/sec and deal with incoming traffic of 4G bytes/day* Reliability over 99.95% with self•-monitoring hardware and software problem* Replacement cycle is less than 8 years

* Redundant configuration (e.g. hot stand-by)* Performance to switch 100 messages/sec and deal with incoming traffic of 1G bytes/day* Reliability over 99.9%

* Redundant configuration (e.g. hot stand-by or backup machine)* Performance to deal with incoming traffic of about 200M bytes/day

* Redundant configuration (e.g. backup machine)* Performance to deal with incoming traffic of about a few M bytes/day

Network * Redundant configuration of network facilities* over 8 GTS connections

* Redundant/backup management of network facilities* over 4 GTS connections

* a few GTS connections * a GTS connection thru a landline or VSAT

Supplementary System

* Internet server for GTS data, Satellite broadcast and/or HF broadcast

     

Number of centers 10 23 53 136

Appropriate sampling 3 - 5 4 - 6 5 - 8 5 - 8

Page 7: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

(2) Simplifying cost items and collecting information

CentersExpenditure items

Example #1 : Type 1 (Large scale) Example #2 : Type 2 (Medium scale)Annual

Cost in US $

RemarksAnnual

Cost in US $

Remarks

System Costs

Message Switching System (MSS)

2,257,000

* 6 year rental contract * 593,000 (H/W inclding maintenance) + 1,664,000 (S/W)

34,200

* Purchase & installation costs/ 8 years (life period) * 9,200 (H/W) + 18,800 (S/W) + 6,200 (installation)

Network Equipment 106,000* 6 year rental contract 3,300* Purchase/ 8 years (life period)* Routers, Switches and DSUs

Satellite Communication System

0  13,000

* Purchase & installation costs/ 8 years * 1Way-VSAT for backup of data reception

Other Supplementary System (e.g. Internet server for GTS data)

500,000* purchase and maintenance costs / 5 years (life period)

0 

Network Running

Costs

MPLS 109,500* Access ports: 2Mbps for provider A, and 3MbpsX2 for provider B

0 

Leased Circuit 148,50064kbpsX2 and 128kbps 78,00064kbpsX1 and AnalogueX2Internet for GTS Connections

200,000100Mbps(SLA), including firewall and hosting services

3,70010Mbps (Best effort)

Satellite Communication Service

0  0 

Others 12,300IP-VPN service 350* VSAT license fee

Sustainable Opeartation

Costs

Hardware Maintenance (preventive/recovery)

0* included in hardware rental fee

5,700* On-call recovery service & spare-parts (3 times/year average)

Software Maintenance (Revision/Modification)

600,000* including SE support (day-time)

14,600* Remote maintenance contract

Training 13,000  2,100* 20-30 days by vendor during the first 4 years

Total Cost 3,946,300  154,950 

Page 8: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

(3) Investigation of telecom market

Others

7%Europe

21%North

America

29%

MENA

9%

Asia

34%

MENA: Middle East & North Africa

Regional distribution of investmentin telecom market in 2009

10-15major player

s

Competitive situationSuitable positioning

situation

Sum [Million US$] Share ratePSTN 23,500 51.3%VoIP 6,600 14.4%Leased line 1,500 3.3%Frame Relay 150 0.3%ATM 200 0.4%IP-VPN (MPLS) 7,200 15.7%X.25 0 0%ISDN 400 0.9%DDN 400 0.9%Wireless/Satellite 5,800 12.6%Others 100 0.2%

Grand Total 45,850 100%

ServiceRevenue

Revenue of major providers in Asia (2nd half of 2010)

5 - 10 years

Page 9: Progress report on estimation of the GTS costs CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011) Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS) Please consider our Earth environment.

2011 2012

2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q

Deliverable

Bringingdraft outcome

with RFC

4. Roadmap

Collecting & analyzingActual cost information

Assembleof methods

Preliminarysurvey

Analysis of

difficulties

Investigationon telecom market

Progress reportto CBS-MG

Final reportto CBS-MG

Finalizingoutcome