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Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) since the Green Revolution R. K. Malik Senior Agronomist, CIMMYT-India, [email protected]
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Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

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Page 1: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) since the Green Revolution

R. K. Malik

Senior Agronomist, CIMMYT-India, [email protected]

Page 2: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Acknowledgements

CRAWFORD FUND

ACIAR

HARYANA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, HISSAR, INDIA

CIMMYT-MEXICO

UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE

CSISA-CIMMYT – USAID, GATES FOUNDATION, NATP- ICAR, RICE-WHEAT CONSORTIUM (RWC)

CHAMPION FARMERS

Page 3: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

% increase 1962-1987 % increase 1987-2012

Area Yield Production

India Wheat(currently about 90Mt p.a.)

Green Revolution(25 yrs)

Post-greenRevolution(25 yrs)

% in

cre

ase

ove

r 2

5 y

ear

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

% increase 1962-1987 % increase 1987-2012

India Rice( currently about 160 Mt p.a. paddy)

Area Yield Production

GreenRevolution(25 yrs)

Post-greenRevolution(25 years)

Source FAOSTAT retrieved 8 Sept 16

Page 4: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

Green revolution Intensification Post-Green revolution

Yield perfomance (% growth p.a.) in wheat

India (Punjab)

1975-85 1986-94

1966-74

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Green revolution Intensification Post-Green revolution

Yield perfomance (% growth p.a.) in rice

India (Punjab)

1966-74

1975-85

1986-94

Post- green revolution phase in Punjab, India, the heart of the

green revolution, but decreasing relative yield growth

Source Murgai et al (2001)

Page 5: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Catalysing change with small and medium farmers of South Asia

• Most poor people are in rural areas

(800 M ).

• High proportion of non-farm household.

• The median annual wage of a farmers is

only US $ 290 which is approximately 2

months minimum wage of a worker in

Delhi- The Economist 30th April 2016

• Situational Assessment of Agricultural

Household show average income from

farming is US $ 59/month

• Rice-wheat cropping system (red dots) is

the heart of agriculture in South Asia.

WIGPEIGP

WIGP – Western Indo-Gangetic PlainsEIGP – Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains

Page 6: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1967 72 77 82 87 92 97 2 7 12

Whea

t Y

ield

(kg h

a-1

)

Bihar Haryana

Wheat yield for two representative states, Haryana (WIGP) and Bihar (EIGP)

1972 1977 1982 1987 2002 2007 20121992 1997

Major differences between regions:

• Climate: warmer and wetter in EIGP, more floods (but terminal heat common)

• Higher population density, greater poverty, smaller farms

• Poorer infrastructure: roads, markets, irrigation, credit

Green revolution wheat breeders in Haryana, late 1960s

Page 7: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

WIGP ( Haryana) continue to perform better through agronomic management

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46

Whea

t Y

ield

(kg h

a-1

)

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

• Rice-wheat, millet-wheat, cotton-wheat

• Mod. operational land holding (approx. 4 ha)

• Birth place of green revolution,Changes since then:

• Better nutrient management• Zero till borne of necessity• Management of rice straw• Earlier sowing• Land levelling• Diversification?• Breeding - slower yield progress but rust held at bay

75% wheat in Haryana is surplus

Page 8: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Improving Soil health: Replacing general recommendations with condition specific approaches

Treatment

FP 3.43 c 0 c 130 a 65 a 22 c

SR 3.55 c 0.11 c 88 c 40 c 26 c

RWCM 3.74 b 0.30 b 109 b 55 b 35 b

RWCM+K 3.91 a 0.48 a 109 b 55 b 65 a

Yield Δ Yield from FP N P2O5 K2O

On-farm trials Haryana (N= 33)

Δ in Grain yield in RWCM compared to FP: + 0.30 to 0.50 t/haΔ in fertilizer: -20 kg N/ha; -10 kg P2O5/ha; +13 to 43 kg K2O/ha

• How to increase agronomic efficiencies in soil fertility

management

• Decision tools, green seeker, nutrient expert (NE), Crop

manager (CM)

• Knowledge dissemination approaches

• Soil health cards

• Digital soil mapping technology

(Farmer practice)

(State recommendation)

Page 9: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Herbicide resistance management launched through ACIAR project ( Phalaris minor resistant to isoproturon)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1993-94 1994-95 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00

Net R

etu

rn (

$/h

a)

Sonipat KarnalSeverely affected herbicide resistant district in Haryana

Moderately affected herbicide resistant district in Haryana

Page 10: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Inverted “T”cross slot seed drill from New Zealand. In1982, up to 1992 no impact, why?

ZT- at dead end till 1993. Factored in five years yield losses due to resistant Phalaris. ZT reduced Phalaris

population to a sustainable level. Provided a paradigm shift leading to its evolution in WIGP.

A major reform after Green Revolution

Inverted “T” opener

Page 11: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

It all stacks-up - impact on diversification and wheat productivity in weedy district in the state of Haryana – WIGP (Source: Statistical abstract of Haryana)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2K 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Sunflower Area ('000 ha)

Wheat Area ('000 ha)

Resistance management brings back wheat area after

1996-97

Herbicide resistance leads to diversification until

1996-97 Switching to Z-till wheat

Page 12: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Summary of benefits and costs (net present valuea to 2030)(Source: Vincent and Quirke, 2002, ACIAR Project 1998-2003, cost 1.1 million A$,

ex-ante based on 0.35 M ha Z-till for 30 years)

Producer benefitsbNet present value

A$m (%)

Prevention of future decline in yield through re-emergence of herbicide

resistance103 5.7

Reduction in herbicide outlays 175 9.7

Reduction in tillage costs 950 52.5

Avoidance of ling-term yield decline through degradation 24 1.3

Yield premium due to early sowing and closer spacing 557 30.8

Total producer benefit (world prices) 1809 100.0

Net gain to India 1809

aDiscount rate of 5%, bIncrease in gross margin valued at world prices

Page 13: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Evolution of zero tillage created new small scale industry in Haryana & Punjab(n=50), 1994-2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

ZT drills sold/ year in Punjab

ZT drills sold/ year in Haryana

Manufacturers in Haryana

Manufacturers in Punjab & Haryana

Num

ber

of

ZT m

anufa

cture

rs (

line)

Num

ber

of

ZT d

rills

sold

by 5

0

ma

nufa

cture

rs (

colu

mn)

Source: Laxmi et. al 2007

Page 14: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Cumulative distribution of sample farmers according to date of wheat sowing (survey Haryana 2011)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1/11

/200

9

6/11

/200

9

11/1

1/20

09

16/1

1/20

09

21/1

1/20

09

26/1

1/20

09

Share

of fa

rmers

who c

om

ple

ted w

heat

sow

ing

Date of sowing

ZT (n = 133)

CT (n= 86)

Source: Krishna and Veettil (2014)

Page 15: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Bright future of rice residue retention to mitigate climate variability and heat stress (2012-13)

Source: CSISA Hub Haryana

Page 16: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Laser Assisted Precision Land Leveling - scale of adoption Haryana

• Estimated amount of irrigation water saving- 1 bn m3 yr-1

• Yield gains in rice is 175000 t, wheat 155000 t, RW system-0.33 Mt yr-1

• GHG mitigation 163,600 MT of CO2e/yr

Sources: CIMMYT-CCAFS Impact Study (2014)State Department of Agri, GoH (2014)

Page 17: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Haryana and WIGP Lessons learnt : How to translate the power of agronomic management?

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Whea

t Y

ield

(kg/h

a)

Dwarf

wheat

Herbicide

resistance

peeks

ZT

became

popular

Veery lines

introduced

Sowing

advanced

The future for further yield increase and better sustainability:• Dependence on supportprices and subsidies• Incomplete adoption of

Z-till• Cost of labour• Lack of diversity• New weeds/Resistance• Declining water table• Nitrate pollution• Soil Health, SOC• Global Warming

Page 18: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

EIGP (Bihar): Focus on providing solutions to realize

its true potential• Rice-wheat and winter

fallow land, • Tiny farms ( 0.3 ha) • Poorer infrastructure,

markets, higher costs• Less progress during and

after green revolution years

Changes since then• Greater R, D and E focus• Improved seed

replacement rates• Earlier seeding and zero

till wheat• Hybrid rice• Winter maize• Double, triple cropping.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1967 72 77 82 87 92 97 2 7 12

Whea

t Y

ield

(kg h

a-1

)

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Page 19: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Bottom-up R, D and E: Diagnostic on-farm data mining techniques: learning from landscapes, on farm crop cuts EIGP (2012 to 2014)

Diagostic surveys and CART

analysis disentangle the complex

relationships between farmer

practice and achieved yields, and

identify entry points for

sustainable intensification.

Wheat yield

(N= 1485)

Average to poor (4.3 t/ha)

Weed management

Good (4.9 t/ha)

Irrigation

< 2.5 (4.6 t/ha) ≥ 2.5 (5.1 t/ha)

After Nov 30 (3.4 t/ha) Before Nov 30 (4.7 t/ha)

Sowing day

Variety

Short

(2.8 t/ha)

Long

(3.7 t/ha)

Tillage

CT(4.6 t/ha) ZT(5.2 t/ha)

Variety

Short (4.0 t/ha) Long ( 5.2 t/ha)

Irrigation

<3 (5 t/ha) ≥3 (5.7 t/ha)

K2O

<3

4 k

g/h

a (

2.6

t/h

a)

>3

4 k

g/h

a (

4.2

t/h

a)

Sowing

day

Aft

er

15

Dec

(3.0

t/h

a)

Befo

re 1

5 D

ec

(3.0

t/h

a)

Page 20: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Early wheat sowing is critical to avoid the terminal heat: Grain yield of wheat in EIGP

Opportunities for timely planting:

• Shorter duration rice (e.g. hybrids)

• Early rice establishment

• Post harvest mechanization for rice

• Zero-tillage for wheat

• Land configuration and drainage

• And calls for varieties adapted to early sowing!!

SYSTEMS-BASED APPROACHES ARE ESSENTIAL

Based on Crop cut data – 6809 samples in 7 years

in Bihar & eastern UP

y = -0.0427x + 5.2045R² = 0.9641

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61

Wh

ea

t G

rain

Yie

ld (

t h

a-1

)

Sowing Day

Average of Grainyield

Nov 1 Dec 31

Page 21: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Laser land leveling – scale, scalability and speed in EIGP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

With Laser Land leveling Without Laser Land leveling

$/ha

Irrigation Cost in rice ($/ha)

• Diesel pump based irrigation in EIGP is costly.

(Lybbert et al. 2014)

Analysis of farmer behaviour shows sensitivity to cost of levelling

Needs about 6 hours to level 1 hectare

Page 22: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Crop establishment method and rice-wheat system productivity (Bihar, Avg of 3 years: 2012-15)

• PTR- Puddled transplanted rice

• CTW- Conventional till wheat

• ZTW- Zero till wheat

• MTNPR- Machine transplanted non puddled rice

• DSR- Direct seeded rice

• SRI- System of rice intensification

• SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification

Treatments Rice Wheat System

Tillage and CE method

PTR fb CTW 6552 a 4254 c 10806 b

PTR fb ZTW 6552 a 4670 b 11216 ab

MTNPR fb ZTW 6931 a 4913 a 11845 a

DSR fb ZTW 5960 b 5149 a 11110 ab

SRI fb SWI 6706 a 4622 b 11328 ab

Page 23: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Performance of rice hybrids and varieties in MTNPR and DSR in EIGP in kharif (summer)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Machine transplanted non-puddled (MTNPR)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Paddy Y

ield

(t/

ha)

Hybrids

Direct seeded rice (DSR)

Hybrids

Page 24: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Maize: bringing diversification after evolution of single cross hybrids (SCH) in

Bihar and Eastern UP, ; both summer (kharif) and winter (rabi)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15

SCH

DCH

Composite (OPV)

Notification Trend in Maize# of cvs registered

Page 25: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Double and triple cropping systems optimization (In collaboration with IARI, Regional station, Pusa, Samastipur, Bihar)

CS1: Rice (long duration inbred MTU-7029) fb wheat

CS2: Rice (Med duration hybrid Arize-6444) fb wheat

CS3: Rice (short duration hybrid Arize-6129) fb mustard fb maize

CS4: Rice (short duration hybrid Arize-6129) fb mustard fb mung

200% Intensity

300% Intensity

Winter (Rabi) Summer (Kharif)(B

ase

d o

n g

rain

pri

ce)

Rice

Wheat or Mustard

Moong or Maize

Page 26: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1967 72 77 82 87 92 97 2 7 12

Whea

t Y

ield

(kg h

a-1

)

Looking ahead for a bright future through tillage

reforms in EIGP

The future:• More zero till and small

machines• More early seeding More

laser levelling• DS and hybrid rice • Winter maize• Triple cropping• Breeding opportunities from

agronomy, esp early seeding.

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Early sowing

Zero tillage

Page 27: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Leveraging the agricultural innovation system (AIS)

‘a network of organizations, enterprises, and

individuals focused on bringing new products, new

processes, and new forms of organization into

economic use…..’ (World Bank 2006)

Service providers

RetailersDistributors

Universities

Companies

State Department of Agriculture

BAOSMSKS DAO

KvK

ICAR / IARI

Neighbours

Farmer

PACS

NGO

NSC

Weak link Normal link link Strong link

CSISA’s work plays complementary and catalytic roles by engaging and uniting partners for indirect impact pathways

Analysis: J.

Andersson

CSISA-HUB

Agricultural Innovation System (AIS) – depth of engagement with all the key

agents

Page 28: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

For example: number of Zero Till Service Providers in Bihar and Eastern UP Hubs

Uttar Pradesh

Bihar

NEPAL

INDIA

Source: CSISA Web Mapping, www.csisa.org

Page 29: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

Lessons learnt : Agricultural innovations for impact and scale

• Change from mission oriented top- down approach to diffusion oriented or bottom- up approach.

• Strategic partnerships (public + private sectors)

• Strengthening markets and scale appropriate mechanization.

• Will diversification ‘work’ for arresting groundwater depletion in the NW IGP? Policies to increase the price of water? Diversification within RWCS will work?

• Yield plateaus and climate change. What happens if global temperature continues to rise? What can help? Effective evolution of agronomic management , delivery process and policies

• Breeding for high-yielding and stress-tolerant rice and wheat cereal varieties

• Strengthen the data collection and statistical packages on why some technologies fly and some flop.

• Technology flow across South Asian countries should be encouraged

Record wheat 7.3 t/ha eastern UP, 2011-12 ,with best bet technology

Page 30: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

The development and delivery of technologies is greater than the sum of its parts

• Why green revolution scaled-out in late 1960s and 1970s ?

• Because imported seed directly went to farmers field, tested, assessed, validated and accepted

• Why BT cotton adoption was more rapid and pervasive?

• Because it brought big advantage out of crisis and farmers created pressure for policy

• Why zero tillage is more transformational?

• Because it was a paradigm shift and mind-set issue

• Why hybrid rice adoption is more in Bihar and Jharkhand?

• Because we were not able to replace any competitive variety against MT 7029 . Also hybrids could fit the stress environment

• Why laser land levelling was adopted with no research in India?

• Because it had a business case and tested and adopted at the same time.

• Why early wheat sowing was accepted in all ecologies ?

• Because every thing was tried and tested at farmers fields

Page 31: Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System ......2016/09/21  · intensification •SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification Treatments Rice Wheat System Tillage and

2002......................

Peter Jennings, FLAR, 2005

Yie

ld

Variety revolution

(semi-dwarfs – 2 t / ha)350 new varieties released

Agronomic Revolution(management gain 2 t / ha, )

Creation of FLAR

.......................1968 1995

The rice revolution in South America

Acceleration of Management Gains

Courtesy of A. Dobermann