Prior to Start of Session 5 Start your computers Launch browser Login to Changing Planet web portal – .

Prior to Start of Session 5

• Start your computers• Launch browser• Login to Changing Planet web portal– http://communities.earthportal.org/changingclimate

• Look in session 5 of “Workshop Notebook” and download “Spreadsheet for CO2 decomposition.”

• Open the spreadsheet and minimize its window• Keep your browser and the spreadsheet open –

we’ll use them during the session

Greenhouse GasesPast, Present and Future

Session 5(a)Neil LearyChanging Planet Study GroupJuly 19-22, 2010

Cooling the Liberal Arts CurriculumA NASA-GCCE Funded Project

Source: UNEP, GRID/Arendal, Vital Climate Graphics, http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/

Carbon Cycle

“Keeling Curve.” Average monthly CO2 concentration (red) and 12 month moving average (blue). This figure was created by Robert Rohde from published data.

Industrial revolution and the atmosphere

Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide

Source: IPCC 2007, WGI, Figure SPM-1.

Last Ice Age

Last Interglacial

350

300

250

200

Car

bon

Dio

xide

(ppm

v)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Thousands of Years Before Present

[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]

CO2 Concentration

All GHG emissions in CO2e, excluding emissions from land-use change and forestry.

Per Capita CO2 Emissions

Source: World Bank online database, 2004

CO2 emissions growth, 1990-2005

Excludes emissions from land use change and forestry.Source: WRI-CAIT database, July 2010, http://cait.wri.org/

IPCC Scenario Storylines

Source: derived from IPCC SRES, 2000.

Projections of CO2 Emissions and Concentrations

Source: IPCC, 2001, WGI Report, Figure 5

Projections of GHG Emissions and Changes in Global Mean Surface Temperature

Source: IPCC, 2007, Synthesis Report, Figure SPM-5

Source: IPCC 2001, Synthesis Report, Figure SPM-10b

CAIT/WRIClimate Analysis Indicators Tool

Login to CAIT:

http://cait.wri.org/

Explore data and tools using navigation bar on left

Download and graph data

• Click “Countries & Regions”

• Select “Countries”• Highlight 10 countries• Click [>>]• Select “Display My

Countries/Regions”• Click [Save Changes]

Get data for CO2, CO2 w/ LUCF, All GHGs

• Select “GHG Emissions”• Use buttons to select CO2.• Sort list of countries

alphabetically• Select “Download”• Open the downloaded

spreadsheet– Look in downloads folder

• Repeat for CO2 w/ LUCF• Repeat for All GHGs• Copy emissions data into one

spreadsheet

Source: chart constructed with data from WRI-CAIT database, July 2010, http://cait.wri.org/.

Top 10 emitters: total, per capita and per $ gdp

Rank CO2 Total from Energy CO2 per capita CO2/$GDP

1 USA Qatar Nauru

2 China Kuwait Uzbekistan

3 EU (27) UAE N Korea

4 Russian Fed Bahrain Turkmenistan

5 Japan Luxembourg Serbia & Mont

6 India USA Mongolia

7 Germany Trinidad & Tob Kazakhstan

8 Canada Australia Ukraine

9 UK Canada China

10 S Korea Saudi Arabia Iraq*

Essential principles of GHGs (1)(Or: what should our students learn?)

• CO2, CH4, N2O have natural & human sources• Human sources: mostly burning fossil energy, clearing

land, agriculture• Emissions have grown rapidly since mid-19th century• Capacity of Earth systems to process has been

exceeded; concentrations growing.– CO2 concentration now higher than past 800k years or longer– Stabilizing emissions will not stabilize concentrations

• Emissions growth driven by population, per capita income, energy intensity, carbon intensity

Essential principles of GHGs (2)(Or: what should our students learn?)

• 25 countries responsible for 80% of emissions• Developed countries account for majority of past &

current emissions– Emissions growth most rapid in developing world; will exceed

developed countries soon– Per capita emissions several times lower!

• Emission profiles differ in North and South– North: CO2 from energy

– South: significant CH4, N2O from land use, agriculture

• If no agreement to cut global emissions, GHGs will warm planet 1-6oC by 2100

Useful Resources

• WRI website: www.wri.org – CAIT and CAIT-US databases & tools– Baumert, Herzog, Pershing (2005)– EarthTrends database

• USEPA website: www.epa.gov/climatechange/– Official inventories of US GHG emissions– Lots of other information about climate change

Extra Slides

Global mean radiative forcings in 2005 relative to 1750 with 90% confidenceintervals (W m-2). Source: IPCC 2007 WG1, Figure 2.20

Source: Baumert, Herzog and Pershing, 2005.

IPCC (2007), Figure 5, WG1 SPM

IPCC (2007), chapter 10, Figure 10.8. Multi-model mean annual surface warming relative to 1980-1999

IPCC (2007), Figure 7 SPM. Multi-model average changes in DJF and JJA precipitation for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999.

Source: IPCC 2007, WGIII Report, Figure SPM-2

Global trends in CO2 emissions, income, population, energy intensity and carbon intensity

Kaya Identity & decomposition

CO2 = Pop x GDP/Pop x E/GDP x C/E

Emissions = population x per capita income x energy intensity x carbon intensity

For small changes:% Δ CO2 = % Δ population

+ % Δ per capita income+ % Δ energy intensity+% Δ carbon intensity