PotashCorp - 2013 Q1 Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q1 2013 Conference CallApril 25, 2013

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

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First-Quarter 2013 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.63 per share1; exceeding the $0.56 per share earned in 2012

• Gross margin of $0.9 billion; second-highest first-quarter total

• Potash sales volume of 2.2 million tonnes – well above volumes in Q1 2012

• Record first-quarter nitrogen gross margin of $271 million

• Market value of investments $8.5 billion, or $10 per PotashCorp share2

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 As of market close on April 24, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

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Gross Margin Increases Primarily on Strength in Potash Segment

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

Potash Highlights:• Strong demand in North America and offshore,

particularly Brazil and China

• Lower realizations following a reset of prices in late 2012

• Lower costs due to increased production and absence of higher-cost Esterhazy tonnage

Nitrogen Highlights:• Strong demand coupled with supply challenges in key

producing regions supported higher ammonia prices

• Higher sales volumes due to Augusta expansion, Geismar restart and reduced Trinidad gas curtailments

Phosphate Highlights:• Weaker prices, primarily for fertilizer products

Source: PotashCorp

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2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year. Consumption forecast based on historical trend line growth.

Million Tonnes

World Grain and Oilseed Supply/DemandNeed For Historically Large Production Increase to Avoid Further Shortfall

Source: USDA, PotashCorp

2013 Production Growth Rate Scenarios

6% (~ 3X Historical Growth Rate)

4% (~ 2X Historical Growth Rate)

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Price Index (2010 Average = 100)

Crop and Fertilizer Price RelationshipSignificant Economic Incentive for Increased Fertilizer Usage

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption)

** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption)

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Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash DemandConsumption Expected to Drive 2013 Shipments

Market 2012 2013F

China 10.6 ~11.5

India 3.5 ~4.0

Other Asia 7.5 ~8.3

Latin America 9.5 ~10.2

North America 7.9 ~9.5

Other 12.0 ~12.5

Total 51.0 55-57

Estimated Shipments by Market** (million tonnes)

* 2013F based on midpoint of estimated global shipment range

** Estimates per PotashCorp

Source: PotashCorp

Ammonia Capacity*

Benefiting from Ammonia; New Capacity Adds Margin Potential

PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile

2013 YTD Nitrogen Product Mix (Sales Volume)

Million Tonnes

$190 million expansion of our Lima, OH ammonia (+88,000 short tons/year) and urea capacity (+80,000 short tons/year) expected to be complete by late 2015

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* All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year

Source: PotashCorp, Company Filings

PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price

Industrial and Feed Products Enhance Stability in Phosphate

PotashCorp Phosphate Profile

Phosphate Product Mix (Sales Volume)

US$/tonne

* Based on 2013 YTD sales volumes

** Mosaic’s percentage based on feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume as publicly disclosed for the most recent four fiscal quarters

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Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Company Reports, PotashCorp

Positioned to Respond to Expected Potash Demand Growth

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

Percentage of New Operational Capability (2012-2016F)*

Growth in Global Fertilizer Consumption

Estimated Annual Increase (2012-2016)

Percentage of Global Operational Capability (2016F)*

* Based on public filings and PotashCorp’s estimates of global operational capability

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Source: AMEC, Company Reports, PotashCorp

1 New Brunswick cost per tonne based on new 2MMT mine (net addition totals 1.2MMT).

2 PotashCorp project costs exclude infrastructure outside the plant gate; Assuming US$/CDN$ at par.

3 Based on 2MMT conventional greenfield mine constructed in Saskatchewan.

4 Calculation of IRR assumes: PotashCorp average per tonne capital cost; 4 year construction timeline, 1 year ramp up and no potash production tax on incremental tonnes.

US$ per Tonne

Higher-Cost, Low-Return Greenfield Potash Projects Could Be Deferred

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

1,2

3

1,2,4

3

3

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - Percentage

Estimated Capital Cost of Greenfield Projects Estimated Return on Brownfield vs Greenfield

Negative Return

Netback Scenarios

Source: Independent Consultants

Cumulative Industry Capacity Additions - Million Tonnes KCl

Industry Consultants have Typically Overstated Capacity Additions

Potash Capacity Forecast vs Actual Additions

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2013 Guidance*

Second Quarter

• Earnings per share: $0.70-$0.85

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $2.75-$3.25

• Potash gross margin: $1.9-$2.4 billion

• Potash shipments: 8.5-9.2 million tonnes

• Phosphate and nitrogen gross margin: $1.4-$1.7 billion

* Guidance as at April 25, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

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2013 Guidance*

Full Year

• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.5 billion

• Annual effective tax rate: 25-27 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes: 11-13 percent of total potash gross margin

• Income from offshore investments***: $370-$400 million

• Selling and administrative expenses: $240-$260 million

• Finance costs: $100-130 million

* Guidance as at April 25, 2013

** Does not include capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance

*** Includes share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments

Source: PotashCorp

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