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Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research The University of Texas at San Antonio
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Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Mar 26, 2015

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Page 1: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Population Change in Texas:Implications for Human and Socioeconomic

Resources in the 21st Century

by

Steve H. Murdock

Institute for Demographic and

Socioeconomic Research

The University of Texas at San Antonio

Page 2: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Major Demographic Trends Affecting the Future

• Change in Rates and Sources of Population Growth

• Increase in the Non-Anglo Population

• Aging of the Population

Page 3: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Total Population Change

Page 4: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2005

Total Population Percent Change

Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S.

1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.61870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.61880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.01890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.51900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.71910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.01920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.91930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.11940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.21950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.51960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.01970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.41980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.41990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.82000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.22005 22,859,968 296,410,404 9.6 5.3

* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2005 are as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for datesindicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texasat San Antonio

Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for datesindicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas

Page 5: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2005

Percent ChangeDue to

Numerical Natural Net Percent Natural Net

Year* Population Change Increase Migration Change Increase Migration 1950 7,711,194 — — — — — —

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.23 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.88 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.08 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.38 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.76 49.65 50.35

2005 22,859,968 2,008,148 1,155,182 852,966 9.63 57.52 42.48

* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Value for 2005 is for July1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the TexasState Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.

Page 6: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, 1990-2000

PercentNumerical Population

1990 2000 Change ChangeState Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000

California 29,760,021 33,871,648 4,111,627 13.8

Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8

Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5

Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4

Arizona 3,665,228 5,130,632 1,465,404 40.0

North Carolina 6,628,637 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4

Washington 4,866,692 5,894,121 1,027,429 21.1

Colorado 3,294,394 4,301,261 1,006,867 30.6

Illinois 11,430,602 12,419,293 988,691 8.6

New York 17,990,455 18,976,457 986,002 5.5

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the yearindicated

Page 7: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Numerical Percent2000 2005 Change Change

State Population* Population* 2000-2005 2000-2005

California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7

Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6

Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807,486 11.3

Georgia 8,186,453 9,072,576 886,123 10.8

Arizona 5,130,632 5,939,292 808,660 15.8

North Carolina 8,049,313 8,683,242 633,929 7.9

Virginia 7,078,515 7,567,465 488,950 6.9

Nevada 1,998,257 2,414,807 416,550 20.8

Washington 5,894,121 6,287,759 393,638 6.7

Colorado 4,301,261 4,665,177 363,916 8.5

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7

Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at

Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, 2000-2005

Page 8: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms in the United States, 1990-2000

PercentNumerical Population

1990 2000 Change ChangeState Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000

Nevada 1,201,833 1,998,257 796,424 66.3

Arizona 3,665,228 5,130,632 1,465,404 40.0

Colorado 3,294,394 4,301,261 1,006,867 30.6

Utah 1,722,850 2,233,169 510,319 29.6

Idaho 1,006,749 1,293,953 287,204 28.5

Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4

Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5

Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8

North Carolina 6,628,637 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4

Washington 4,866,692 5,894,121 1,027,429 21.1 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year

indicated

Page 9: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

PercentNumerical Population

2000 2005 Change ChangeState Population* Population* 2000-2005 2000-2005

Nevada 1,998,257 2,414,807 416,550 20.8

Arizona 5,130,632 5,939,292 808,660 15.8

Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807,486 11.3

Georgia 8,186,453 9,072,576 886,123 10.8

Utah 2,233,169 2,469,585 236,416 10.6

Idaho 1,293,953 1,429,096 135,143 10.4

Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6

Colorado 4,301,261 4,665,177 363,916 8.5

North Carolina 8,049,313 8,683,242 633,929 7.9

Delaware 783,600 843,524 59,924 7.6

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at

Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms in the United States, 2000-2005

Page 10: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Ten Largest States in United States by Population Size in 2000 Ranked by Population Size in 2000

Numerical Percent1990 2000 Change Change

State Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000

California 29,760,021 33,871,648 4,111,627 13.8

Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8

New York 17,990,455 18,976,457 986,002 5.5

Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5

Illinois 11,430,602 12,419,293 988,691 8.6

Pennsylvania 11,881,643 12,281,054 399,411 3.4

Ohio 10,847,115 11,353,140 506,025 4.7

Michigan 9,295,297 9,938,444 643,147 6.9

New Jersey 7,730,188 8,414,350 684,162 8.9

Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the yearindicated

Page 11: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Numerical Percent2000 2005 Change Change

State Population* Population* 2000-2005 2000-2005

California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7

Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6

New York 18,976,457 19,254,630 278,173 1.5

Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807,486 11.3

Illinois 12,419,293 12,763,371 344,078 2.8

Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,429,616 148,562 1.2

Ohio 11,353,140 11,464,042 110,902 1.0

Michigan 9,938,444 10,120,860 182,416 1.8

Georgia 8,186,453 9,072,576 886,123 10.8

New Jersey 8,414,350 8,717,925 303,575 3.6

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7

Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at

Ten Largest States in United States by PopulationSize in 2000 Ranked by Population Size in 2005

Page 12: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Numerical Population Change by Components of Change in the United States and Selected States,

1990-2000 and 2000-2005United NewStates Arkansas Louisiana Mexico Oklahoma Texas

1990-2000

Numerical Change 32,630,981 322,776 247,150 303,977 305,078 3,865,485

Natural Increase 17,081,253 93,014 286,697 153,800 150,386 1,922,044

Domestic Migration 0 218,560 -67,157 108,782 123,423 1,166,570

International Migration 15,549,728 11,202 27,610 41,395 31,269 776,871

2000-2005

Numerical Change 14,988,498 105,754 54,652 109,338 97,230 2,008,148

Natural Increase 8,651,861 52,214 129,889 74,397 80,753 1,155,182

Domestic Migration 2,696 31,593 -95,411 6,967 -20,069 189,805

International Migration 6,333,941 21,947 20,174 27,974 36,546 663,161

Page 13: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent of Population Change by Components of Change in the United States and Selected States, 1990-2000 and 2000-2005

United New States Arkansas Louisiana Mexico Oklahoma Texas

1990-2000

Numerical Change 32,630,981 322,776 247,150 303,977 305,078 3,865,485

Percent Natural Increase 52.3 28.8 116.0 50.6 49.3 49.7

Percent Domestic Migration 0.0 67.7 -27.2 35.8 40.5 30.2

Percent International Migration 47.7 3.5 11.2 13.6 10.2 20.1

2000-2005

Numerical Change 14,988,498 105,754 54,652 109,338 97,230 2,008,148

Percent Natural Increase 57.7 49.3 237.7 68.0 83.0 57.5

Percent Domestic Migration 0.0 29.9 -174.6 6.4 -20.6 9.5

Percent International Migration 42.3 20.8 36.9 25.6 37.6 33.0

Page 14: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Population Change by Components of Change in the San Antonio Metropolitan

Area Compared to the State and Selected Areas, 1990-2000 and 2000-2004 Dallas - Houston – Austin - San Antonio Ft Worth- Baytown - Round Rock State of Metropolitan Arlington Sugarland Metropolitan Texas Area Metropolitan

Area Area Metropolitan Area Area

1990-2000 Numerical Change 3,865,485 303,958 1,172,250 948,174 403,536 Natural Increase 1,922,044 150,894 505,595 500,630 112,314 Domestic Migration 1,166,570 111,518 472,931 210,530 260,833 International Migration 776,871 41,546 193,724 237,014 30,389 2000-2004 Numerical Change 1,638,202 142,347 538,712 465,036 162,508 Natural Increase 930,519 70,302 267,470 238,579 66,852 Domestic Migration 149,679 49,934 74,881 49,000 55,700

International Migration 558,004 22,111 196,361 177,457 39,956

Page 15: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Population Change by Components of Change in the San Antonio Metropolitan

Area Compared to the State and Selected Areas, 1990-2000 and 2000-2004 Dallas - Houston – Austin - San Antonio Ft Worth Baytown - Round Rock State of Metropolitan Metropolitan Sugarland Metropolitan Texas Area Area Metropolitan Area Area 1990-2000 Numerical Change 3,865,485 303,958 1,172,250 948,174 403,536 Percent Natural Increase 49.7 49.6 43.2 52.8 27.9 Percent Domestic Migration 30.2 36.7 40.3 22.2 64.6 Percent International Migration 20.1 13.7 16.5 25.0 7.5 2000-2004 Numerical Change 1,638,202 142,347 538,712 465,036 162,508 Percent Natural Increase 56.58 49.4 49.6 51.3 41.1 Percent Domestic Migration 9.1 35.1 13.9 10.5 34.3 Percent International Migration 34.1 15.5 36.5 38.2 24.6

Page 16: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000

Source: Texas State Data Center

Percent Change 2000-2003

< 0.0% (n=68)

0.0 - 9.9% (n=61)

10.0 - 21.9% (n=66)

22.0 - 86.2% (n=59)

Page 17: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2003

Source: Texas State Data Center

Percent Change 2000-2003

< 0.0% (n=98)

0.0 - 1.9% (n=50)

2.0 - 5.4% (n=53)

5.5 - 28.2% (n=53)

Page 18: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent Change 2000-2004

< 0.0% (n=103)

0.0 - 1.9% (n=39)

2.0 - 5.4% (n=51)

5.5 - 35.2% (n=61)

Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2004

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2004 County Estimates

Page 19: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Racial/Ethnic Change in Texas

Page 20: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups

Texas Texas ComparisonGroup Value Rank Areas

By Size in 2000

Anglo 11,074,716 3 California; 17.0 millionNew York; 12.5 million

Black 2,421,653 2 New York; 2.9 million

Hispanic 6,669,666 2 California; 11.0 million

Other 685,785 4 California; 4.2 millionNew York; 1.2 millionHawaii; 733,000

Page 21: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Texas Texas ComparisonGroup Value Rank Areas

By Numerical Change, 1990-2000

Anglo 783,036 2 Florida; 1.1 million

Black 445,293 3 Florida; 665,000Georgia; 627,000

Hispanic 2,329,761 2 California; 3.3 million

Other 307,220 3 California; 1.2 millionNew York; 493,000

Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups

Page 22: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Anglo Population For States in the United States in 1990 and 2000 Ranked by Total

Population Size in 2000

1990 2000 Numerical PercentAnglo Anglo Change Change

State Population Population 1990-2000 1990-2000

California 17,029,126 16,393,491 -635,635 -3.73Texas 10,291,680 11,074,716 783,036 7.61New York 12,460,189 11,921,371 -538,818 -4.32

Florida 9,475,326 10,568,868 1,093,542 11.54Illinois 8,550,208 8,514,486 -35,722 -0.42

Pennsylvania 10,422,058 10,373,049 -49,009 -0.47Ohio 9,444,622 9,604,550 159,928 1.69

Michigan 7,649,951 7,906,629 256,678 3.36New Jersey 5,718,966 5,625,346 -93,620 -1.64

Georgia 4,543,425 5,170,762 627,337 13.81

Page 23: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Texas Texas ComparisonGroup Value Rank Areas

By Percent of Total Population in 2000

Anglo 53.1 47 Ahead of Hawaii; 30.1Ahead of New Mexico; 45.7Ahead of California; 48.4

Black 11.6 18 Highest is Mississippi; 36.4Lowest is Montana; 0.4

Hispanic 32.0 3 New Mexico; 42.1California; 32.4

Other 3.3 22 Highest is Hawaii; 60.5Lowest is West Virginia; 0.9

Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups

Page 24: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000

941,383

283,818

1,354,081

178,037

783,036

445,293

2,329,761

307,220

Anglo Black Hispanic Other0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1980-1990 1990-2000

Page 25: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 in Texas

10.077.61

16.77

22.53

45.35

53.68

88.78

81.15

1980-1990 1990-20000

20

40

60

80

100Percent Change

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Page 26: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Proportion of Net Population Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in

Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000

34.14

20.26

10.29 11.52

49.11

60.27

6.467.95

1980-1990 1990-20000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Page 27: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Numerical Percent Percent of2000 2004 Change Change Population

Race/ Census Estimated 2000- 2000-Ethnicity Population Population 2004 2004 2000 2004

Anglo 11,074,716 11,222,394 147,678 1.3 53.1 49.9

Black 2,421,653 2,567,841 146,188 6.0 11.6 11.4

Hispanic 6,669,666 7,848,698 1,179,032 17.7 32.0 34.9

Other 685,785 851,089 165,304 24.1 3.3 3.8

Total 20,851,820 22,490,022 1,638,202 7.9 100.0 100.0

Source: Texas State Data Center, Institute for Demographic and SocioeconomicResearch, University of Texas at San Antonio.

Population Change by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000‑2004

Page 28: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Major Changes in Population Composition(Characteristics)

• Age

Page 29: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2000

22.924.1

25.326.5

2930.1 29.5

28.130

32.9

35.3

18.720.2

2223.7

26.827.9

27 26.428

30.832.3

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

10

20

30

40Median Age

United States Texas

Page 30: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent Change in Population by Age Group in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000

13.7

1.55.3

49.4

14.812

21.7

16.3 15.3

60.3

2420.7

<18 18-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age Groups

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent Change

United States Texas

Page 31: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1 44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.635.3

30.526.7

24.222.4

20.6 20.316.7

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

Page 32: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6 21.9

25.3 26.5 27.2

39.8

69.967.8 66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.4

64.362.6

60.6

56.7 55.252.3

37.1

< 5 y

ears

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

Page 33: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

PROJECTIONS

Page 34: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 11,331,893 2,627,284 8,060,578 783,204 22,802,9592020 11,381,151 2,771,391 9,336,524 841,641 24,330,7072030 11,171,425 2,823,276 10,576,281 878,111 25,449,0932040 10,733,074 2,796,626 11,662,262 893,139 26,085,101

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 11,533,980 2,754,737 9,080,466 961,460 24,330,6432020 11,796,479 3,052,412 11,882,993 1,273,908 28,005,7922030 11,789,292 3,268,611 15,140,088 1,632,588 31,830,5792040 11,525,083 3,403,176 18,804,297 2,028,603 35,761,159

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 11,740,016 2,888,449 10,252,219 1,177,909 26,058,5932020 12,227,555 3,361,702 15,226,371 1,921,057 32,736,6852030 12,442,104 3,783,657 21,871,382 3,020,447 41,117,5902040 12,376,303 4,140,670 30,604,621 4,585,895 51,707,489

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002

2010 11,587,971 2,826,849 9,877,268 1,117,442 25,409,5302020 11,908,234 3,217,037 14,090,715 1,726,191 30,942,1772030 11,960,333 3,539,340 19,449,030 2,569,996 37,518,6992040 11,749,690 3,786,341 26,153,290 3,698,715 45,388,036

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Page 35: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2000-2010 2.3 8.5 20.9 14.2 9.42010-2020 0.4 5.5 15.8 7.5 6.72020-2030 -1.8 1.9 13.3 4.3 4.62030-2040 -3.9 -0.9 10.3 1.7 2.52000-2040 -3.1 15.5 74.9 30.2 25.1

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2000-2010 4.1 13.8 36.1 40.2 16.72010-2020 2.3 10.8 30.9 32.5 15.12020-2030 -0.1 7.1 27.4 28.2 13.72030-2040 -2.2 4.1 24.2 24.3 12.32000-2040 4.1 40.5 181.9 195.8 71.5

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2000-2010 6.0 19.3 53.7 71.8 25.02010-2020 4.2 16.4 48.5 63.1 25.62020-2030 1.8 12.6 43.6 57.2 25.62030-2040 -0.5 9.4 39.9 51.8 25.82000-2040 11.8 71.0 358.9 568.7 148.0

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002

2000-2010 4.6 16.7 48.1 62.9 21.92010-2020 2.8 13.8 42.7 54.5 21.82020-2030 0.4 10.0 38.0 48.9 21.32030-2040 -1.8 7.0 34.5 43.9 21.02000-2040 6.1 56.4 292.1 439.3 117.7

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Racial/Ethnic Status Under Alternative

Assumptions of Migration Scenarios

Page 36: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 49.8 11.5 35.3 3.42020 46.7 11.4 38.4 3.52030 43.8 11.1 41.6 3.52040 41.2 10.7 44.7 3.4

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 47.4 11.3 37.3 4.02020 42.2 10.9 42.4 4.52030 37.0 10.3 47.6 5.12040 32.2 9.5 52.6 5.7

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 45.1 11.1 39.3 4.52020 37.3 10.3 46.5 5.92030 30.3 9.2 53.2 7.32040 23.9 8.0 59.2 8.9

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002 2010 45.6 11.1 38.9 4.42020 38.5 10.4 45.5 5.62030 32.0 9.4 51.8 6.82040 26.0 8.3 57.6 8.1

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Percent of the Population in Texas

by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Page 37: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Projected Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2040*

*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2010-2040.

53.1

45.1

37.3

30.3

23.9

11.6 11.1 10.39.2

8.0

32.0

39.3

46.5

53.2

59.2

3.34.5

5.97.3

8.9

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0Percent

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Page 38: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent of the Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity and Age Groups in Texas from 2000-2040

Under Alternative Migration Scenarios

AgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios

2000<18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.218-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.625-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.145-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.265+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2020<18 20.1 24.8 32.0 21.2 25.218-24 8.2 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.625-44 24.7 29.3 26.9 24.0 26.145-64 27.4 25.0 21.5 29.9 24.965+ 19.6 10.7 8.5 15.8 14.2

2040<18 17.4 19.9 27.5 16.8 22.218-24 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.5 8.725-44 24.1 27.6 27.1 23.7 25.945-64 24.9 26.5 20.6 22.1 23.065+ 26.0 17.2 14.8 30.9 20.2

(Continued)

AgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios

2000<18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.218-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.625-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.145-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.265+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2020<18 20.1 24.8 32.0 21.2 25.218-24 8.2 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.625-44 24.7 29.3 26.9 24.0 26.145-64 27.4 25.0 21.5 29.9 24.965+ 19.6 10.7 8.5 15.8 14.2

2040<18 17.4 19.9 27.5 16.8 22.218-24 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.5 8.725-44 24.1 27.6 27.1 23.7 25.945-64 24.9 26.5 20.6 22.1 23.065+ 26.0 17.2 14.8 30.9 20.2

(Continued)

Page 39: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group for 2000-2040*

*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.

Anglo4.2%

Black5.6%

Hispanic77.6%

Other12.6%

Page 40: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent Change from 2000 to 2040 in Selected Age Groups in the Texas Population Under the 1.0

Scenario

88.3

112.0

295.5

<18 years 18 to 24 years 65+ years0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0Percent Change

Page 41: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Page 42: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Median Household Income in 1999 in Texas by Age of Householder

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age of Householder

Thousands

Page 43: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Median Household Income In 1999 in Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder

$47,162

$29,305 $29,873

$50,049

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Anglo Black Hispanic Asian

Page 44: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years

of Age By Race/Ethnicity

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

< High School

High School

Some College

College or More

Hispanic

Black

Anglo

Asian

Percent

Page 45: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

States Ranked by Median Household Income in 1999

$55,146

$53,935

$52,868

$51,571

$50,502

$49,820

$49,467

$47,493

$47,381

$47,203

$39,927

$41,994

New Jersey (1)

Connecticut (2)

Maryland (3)

Alaska (4)

Massachusetts (5)

Hawaii (6)

New Hampshire (7)

California (8)

Delaware (9)

Colorado (10)

Texas (30)

United States

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

Page 46: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

States Ranked by Per Capita Income in 1999

$28,766

$28,659

$27,006

$25,952

$25,614

$24,049

$23,975

$23,844

$23,389

$23,305

$19,617

$21,587

Connecticut (1)

District of Columbia (2)

New Jersey (3)

Massachusetts (4)

Maryland (5)

Colorado (6)

Virgina (7)

New Hampshire (8)

New York (9)

Delaware (10)

Texas (33)

United States

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000

Page 47: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates + in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000

88.3

87.9

87.9

87.7

87.4

87.2

87.1

86.9

86.6

86.4

75.7

80.4

Alaska(1)

Minnesota (3)

Wyoming (3)

Utah (4)

New Hampshire (5)

Montana (6)

Washington (7)

Colorado (8)

Nebraska (9)

Vermont (10)

Texas (45)

United States

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Percent

Page 48: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates +in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2004

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement

92.3

91.9

91.9

91.3

91.0

90.8

90.8

90.2

89.8

89.7

78.3

85.2

Minnesota (1)

Montana (2)

Wyoming (2)

Nebraska (4)

Utah (5)

New Hampshire (6)

Vermont (6)

Alaska (8)

Iowa (9)

Washington (10)

Texas ( 50)

United States

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Percent

Page 49: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000

39.1

33.2

32.7

31.4

31.4

29.8

29.5

29.4

28.7

27.7

23.2

24.4

District of Columbia (1)

Massachusetts (2)

Colorado (3)

Connecticut (5)

Maryland (5)

New Jersey (6)

Virginia (7)

Vermont (8)

New Hampshire (9)

Washington (10)

Texas (27)

United States

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Percent

Page 50: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2004

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement

36.7

35.5

35.4

35.2

34.6

34.5

34.2

33.1

32.5

31.7

24.5

27.7

Massachusetts (1)

Colorado (2)

New Hampshire (3)

Maryland (4)

New Jersey (5)

Connecticut (6)

Vermont (7)

Virginia (8)

Minnesota (9)

California (10)

Texas (35)

United States

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

Percent

Page 51: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First Century: Implications of

Population Change for the Future of Texas

by

Steve H. Murdock

The Institute for Demographic and

Socioeconomic Research

The University of Texas at San Antonio

The Institute

for Demographic

and

Socioeconomic

Research

Page 52: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

EDUCATION

Page 53: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Educational Attainment Characteristics of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000

PercentRacial/ High PercentEthnic School CollegeGroup Graduates Graduates

1990

Anglo 81.5 25.2Black 66.2 12.0Hispanic 44.6 7.3Total 72.1 20.3

2000

Anglo 87.2 30.0Black 75.8 15.3Hispanic 49.3 8.9Total 75.7 23.2

Percent Change

Anglo 7.0 19.0Black 14.5 27.5Hispanic 10.5 21.9Total 5.0 14.3

1990

Anglo 81.5 25.2Black 66.2 12.0Hispanic 44.6 7.3Total 72.1 20.3

2000

Anglo 87.2 30.0Black 75.8 15.3Hispanic 49.3 8.9Total 75.7 23.2

Percent Change

Anglo 7.0 19.0Black 14.5 27.5Hispanic 10.5 21.9Total 5.0 14.3

Page 54: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Public Community College and University Enrollment Rates (Per 100 Persons Ages 18 to 35)

in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990 and 2000

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Community College

1990 6.3 4.1 4.4 5.6 5.52000 6.5 5.2 4.8 6.8 5.7

Public University

1990 7.4 4.0 3.5 10.0 6.02000 7.5 4.7 3.3 10.3 5.7

Page 55: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Enrollment in Public Elementary and SecondarySchools in Texas for all Scenarios, 2000-2040

4

4

4

5

6

7

44

55

5

4 4 4

4 4

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Years

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Millions

0.0 Scenario 0.5 Scenario 1.0 Scenario Census Count

Page 56: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Enrollment in Public Community Colleges andPublic Universities in Texas, 2000-2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

371

445

495

581

677

421

510

589

710

849

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Years

0

200

400

600

800

1,000Thousands

Public Community Colleges Public Universities

Page 57: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Projected Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

43.2

19.9

14.4

8.3

39.5

66.3

2.95.5

2000 2040

Projection Year

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Percent

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Page 58: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

54.7

25.7

11.18.1

29.5

56.0

4.7

10.2

2000 2040

Projection Year

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Percent

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Page 59: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

61.5

32.3

10.38.1

21.3

44.5

6.9

15.1

2000 2040

Projection Year

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Percent

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Page 60: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Future Demands for Specific Programs

Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas

186.8%

119.9%

48.5%

183%

188.1%

64.7%

101.9%

69.9%

Bilingual/ESL

Economically Disadvantaged

Gifted and Talented

Immigrants

Limited English Proficiency (LEP)

Special Education

Title 1

Career and Technology Education

0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

2000-2040 Percent Change

76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth

Page 61: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent Change in Public Community College Enrollment, Public University Enrollment, Students with Financial Need Unmet by Household Resources, and State Financial

Assistance Expenditures for Public Higher Education in Texas, 2000-2040*

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

101.6

82.5

105.4

206.7

Public Community College Enrollment

Public University Enrollment

Students with Financial Need

Unmet

State Financial Assistance

Expenditures

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

Percent Change

Page 62: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

53.1%

11.6%32.0%

3.3%

61.4%

11.4% 24.2%

3.0%

58.4%

10.7% 27.5%

3.4%

24.2%7.9%

59.1%

8.8%

29.0%9.0%

52.8%

9.2%

25.2%7.9%

58.7%

8.2%

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 Population

2040 Population

2000 Householders

2040 Householders

2000 Civilian Labor Force

2040 Civilian Labor Force

Page 63: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary and Secondary Schools and

Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

43.2%

14.4%

39.5%

2.9%

58.0%

10.7%25.6%

5.7%

19.9%

8.3%

66.3%

5.5%

28.7%8.1%

50.9%12.3%

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 Public Elementaryand Secondary

2040 Public Elementaryand Secondary

2000 Public Collegesand Universities

2040 Public Collegesand Universities

Page 64: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Ethnic Diversity of Household Income and Consumer Expenditures in Texas, 2000 and 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

71.2%

8.2%17.3%

3.3%

66.4%

8.7%21.9%

3.0%

38.2%

7.4%

42.8%

11.6%

31.9%7.1%

51.7%

9.3%

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 AggregateHousehold Income

2040 AggregateHousehold Income

2000 Consumer Expenditures

2040 Consumer Expenditures

Page 65: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

State Tax Revenues in Texas Proportioned by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040* Assuming 2000 Decile Tax Rates

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

38.2%7.4%

42.8%11.6%

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2040* Projected Tax Revenues

71.2%

8.2%

17.3%3.3%

2000 Tax Revenues

Page 66: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

Page 67: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040*

(in 2000 Dollars)

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$54,441

$52,639

$50,903

$49,326

$47,883

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Page 68: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

11.4

7.5

15.0

26.7

18.9

14.415.4

11.8

17.0

30.0

18.9

16.6

Family Households

Married Couple

Male Householder

Female Householder

Nonfamily Households

Total Households

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Percent in Poverty

2000 2040

Page 69: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United Statesby Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)

$30,412

$42,271

$52,552

$80,950

$102,410

$32,473

$44,068

$54,467

$80,327

$104,294

Less ThanHigh School

High SchoolGraduate

Some College or Associate Degree

Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate/ProfessionalDegree

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Average Income

Texas United States

Page 70: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

12.7

25.7

31.6

30.0

24.0

29.9

30.6

15.5

50.7

22.0

18.4

8.9

21.0

16.1

20.6

42.3

2.2

16.6

33.4

47.8

4.3

25.6

40.5

29.6

32.1

25.8

24.1

18.0

13.4

7.6

11.0

68.0

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc.

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Percent

2000 2040

Black

Hispanic

Other

Anglo

Page 71: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$251

$621

$765

$938

$210

$528

$629

$752

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Billions

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures

Page 72: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

State Tax Revenues in Texas for 2000 and Projected for 2040 (in 2000 Dollars) Assuming 2000 Rates, 1990-2000 Rates of Closure

Between Anglo-Black and Anglo-Hispanic Household Incomes, and Anglo Income Levels for All Race/Ethnicity Groups*

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$29,510,942,468

$68,026,247,958

$74,812,045,501

$89,667,827,701

2000 AggregateHousehold Income

2040 Assuming2000 Income Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Closure

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Incomesfor all Groups

$0

$10,000,000,000

$20,000,000,000

$30,000,000,000

$40,000,000,000

$50,000,000,000

$60,000,000,000

$70,000,000,000

$80,000,000,000

$90,000,000,000

$100,000,000,000

Tax Revenues

Page 73: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Prison Population and Prison Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

126,515

341,068

227,969

134,539$1.9

$5.1

$3.4

$2.0

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000Prison Population

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0 Costs (Billions)

Prison Population Prison Costs

Page 74: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics.

George Bernard Shaw

Page 75: Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic.

Steve MurdockTexas State Data Center

Phone 210 – 458 - 6530Fax 210 – 458 - 6540Website txsdc.utsa.edu