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Plans to distribute the next billion computers by 2015 creates lead pollution risk Christopher R. Cherry a , Perry Gottesfeld b Published in: Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 1620 ‐ 1628 Abstract Major computer and software companies, along with governments and philanthropic organizations have embarked on ambitious plans to put computers in the hands of more than one billion new computer users over the next five to seven years in untapped markets in emerging economies. The most frequently proposed solution to overcome the electricity shortfall in communities where new computer users will be located is to use rechargeable lead‐acid batteries to provide primary and back‐up power for computers. This paper calculates the lead emissions from battery manufacturing and recycling that will result if independent market projections to greatly expand the number, geographic, and socioeconomic distribution of computer users are realized. By examining several possible scenarios, we estimate that between 1,250 and 2,300 kilotonnes of lead ‐‐ between four and seven times the weight of the Empire State Building ‐‐ could be released into the environment in the developing world to provide power to computers sold through 2015. Increased lead exposure has a negative impact on children’s neurological development as measured by reduced school performance and on standardized tests. In order to realize the educational achievement and economic development benefits of reducing the “digital divide” proponents will need to encourage improvements in lead battery production and recycling in targeted markets. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. Keywords: Electronic Waste; lead acid battery; lead pollution; Uninterruptible Power Supply; computer market a Christopher Cherry, Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee‐Knoxville b Perry Gottesfeld, Executive Director OK International 4444 Geary Blvd., Suite 300 San Francisco, CA 94117 (415) 221‐8900 [email protected]
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Planstodistributethenextbillioncomputersby2015createsleadpollutionrisk

ChristopherR.Cherrya,PerryGottesfeldb

Publishedin:JournalofCleanerProduction17(2009)1620‐1628

Abstract

Majorcomputerandsoftwarecompanies,alongwithgovernmentsandphilanthropicorganizationshaveembarkedonambitiousplans toput computers in thehandsofmore thanonebillionnewcomputerusers over the next five to seven years in untapped markets in emerging economies. The most

frequentlyproposedsolutiontoovercometheelectricityshortfallincommunitieswherenewcomputeruserswillbelocatedistouserechargeablelead‐acidbatteriestoprovideprimaryandback‐uppowerforcomputers.Thispapercalculatestheleademissionsfrombatterymanufacturingandrecyclingthatwill

resultifindependentmarketprojectionstogreatlyexpandthenumber,geographic,andsocioeconomicdistributionofcomputerusersarerealized.Byexaminingseveralpossiblescenarios,weestimatethatbetween1,250and2,300kilotonnesoflead‐‐betweenfourandseventimestheweightoftheEmpire

StateBuilding ‐‐ couldbe released into theenvironment in thedevelopingworld toprovidepower tocomputerssoldthrough2015. Increasedleadexposurehasanegativeimpactonchildren’sneurologicaldevelopment as measured by reduced school performance and on standardized tests. In order to

realizetheeducationalachievementandeconomicdevelopmentbenefitsofreducingthe“digitaldivide”proponentswillneedtoencourageimprovements in leadbatteryproductionandrecycling intargetedmarkets.

©2009ElsevierLtd.

Keywords:ElectronicWaste;leadacidbattery;leadpollution;UninterruptiblePowerSupply;computer

market

aChristopherCherry,AssistantProfessorCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,UniversityofTennessee‐KnoxvillebPerryGottesfeld,ExecutiveDirectorOKInternational4444GearyBlvd.,Suite300

SanFrancisco,CA94117(415)221‐8900

[email protected]

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1. Introduction

Personal computers have revolutionized thewaypeople communicate, educate, and conduct

business.Foralargeportionoftheworld’spopulation,thepersonalcomputerisusedonadailybasisto

interact with individuals and access information from around the globe. This technology is opening

educational opportunities for many and allowing businesses to make more informed and strategic

decisions. The most obvious environmental cost of this revolution has been the proliferation of

electronic waste (e‐waste) as computers become obsolete on frequent cycles, yet still contain high

levelsoftoxicmaterials.Thise‐wastehasbeenpoorlymanagedwithmuchofitendingupinlowwage

countrieswhere it is crudely recycled leaving significant contamination in itswake.As a result,many

governmentsaredraftingrobustprotocolstoimprovethecollection,recycling,anddisposalofe‐waste

[1,2].

Market analysts have estimated that, in 2007, theworld population of connected computers

exceeded one billion. These billion computers have mostly gone to individuals in higher income

economicstrata,withsomemarketpenetrationintolowerincomeandrapidlyindustrializingcountries,

suchasChinaandIndia.Majorcomputermanufacturershaveembarkedonambitiousplanstoselland

connectthe“nextbillion”computersover thenextfive tosevenyears[3].Forexample,PaulOttelini,

CEOofIntelCorporation,introducedthe“WorldAheadProgram”,inaspeechattheWorldCongresson

InformationTechnologyin2006.Theprogramtargetsmarketsthathavelittleaccesstocomputerswith

low cost devices that will enable increased access to information and educational opportunities.

Simultaneously largephilanthropiceffortsarebeinglaunched todonateorsell lowcostcomputersto

schoolsand individuals in thesesameunderservedpopulations.Table1providesapartial listofmajor

initiativesaimedatgettingcomputersinthehandsofthelowestincomegroupsindevelopingcountries.

This listdoesnotincludethegovernment initiativestobridgethedigitaldividebyprovidinginnovative

financing,grants,andtaxincentivestobringmorecomputerswithinreachofthepoorerhouseholds[3].

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No comprehensive tally of public, private and philanthropic efforts has been attempted, but private

investmentinmarketingcomputerscoulddwarfthatoftheothersectors.

Table1:PartialListofEffortstoPromoteComputerUsageinDevelopingCountries

Organization Program FinancialCommitment

Notes

AMD 50X15 Unknown Goaltoreach50%oftheworldpopulationby2015.For‐profitprogramtargetshighgrowthmarketslikeIndia,ChinaandRussia.ProgramdoesnotgiveoutgrantsorpartnerwithNGOs;modeliscustomercentric.

Intel WorldAhead $1billion Systemswillbemadeinthecountrywheretheyaresolde.g.inIndiaIntelhascreatedthreecomputingsystemsfortheregionalmarket,thisincludesacommunityPCthatworksoncarbatterieswhenthepowerrunsout.

HP e‐inclusion $1billion IncludesHPGarageventurefund,targetedtoHPcustomersinthedevelopingworld.Willenlist1millionpartnersbyestablishingseveralmajorallianceswithorganizationsandindividualsalreadyinthee‐inclusionprogram.Theyalsowanttostart“'on‐the‐ground'initiativesthatprovidesocialandeconomicbenefitstopeoplearoundtheworld,representingatleast1000ruralcommunities."

Inter‐AmericanDevelopmentBank

1:1(oneononecomputing)

$3million Madea$3milliondollargrantforapilotprojecttodistributeXOlaptops(madebyOLPC)inHaiti.

Microsoft Flexgo $25milliondollarsinsoftwaredonations

Programallowslowincomeuserstopayforcomputerswithapay‐as‐you‐gomodel.

MITMediaLab OneLaptopperChild(OLPC)

$10milliondollars,includes$2milliondollarsfromGoogleand$2millionfromRupertMurdoch

Programreliesonparticipatinggovernmentsbuyinglaptopsatverylargescales.Accordingtotheorganization’sestimatesitrequires$30billiondollarseachyeartoreachitsgoalofprovidingalltwobillionchildreninthedevelopingworld,between6‐16yearsoldwithalaptop,thisalsoincludestheinfrastructurecost.

GatesFoundation

GlobalLibraries

$70million WorksincountriesemergingfrompovertytohelppubliclibrariesprovidefreeaccesstocomputersconnectedtotheInternet.

GreenWiFi GreenWiFiproject

Unknown,beingfundedbyOLPC

ProvidessolarpoweredInternetaccessindevelopingcommunitieswhereelectricpowerisunreliableornon‐existent.Onekeyfeatureofthisproductisaleadbatteryusedtostoresolarpower.

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One of the challenges of reaching this intendedmarket of new computer users is the lack of

reliable electricity supply.Thesolution initiallyproposedduringMr.Ottelini’s speech,whichhasbeen

repeatedandpilotedsince, is tomarket computers thataredesigned tobepoweredby rechargeable

lead‐acid batteries (LAB). Since LAB technology, commonly used in automobile, marine, and backup

powerapplicationsisuniversallyavailableandrelativelyinexpensive,thissolutionhassomemeritfrom

amarketperspective.Ifusersareinanareawithintermittentelectricity,thebatteryisacomponentina

back‐upuninterruptiblepowersupply(UPS).Ifusersareinanareawithnoelectricity,thecomputerand

routeroperateonbatterypoweruntil thebattery is depleted,and then it is transported toanearby

location on the electricity grid or a distributed power source, like a gasoline/diesel generator for

recharging.Photovoltaicsolarandwindpowersourcesarealsosuggestedasalternativesforpowering

thesecomputers,butthesetechnologies,whenemployedinruralareasofdevelopingcountriesarealso

reliantonLABs.

Untilnow,therehasbeenlittlediscussionofthepotentialenvironmentalconsequencesofthe

predictedincreaseddemandforLABsforthispurpose.DevelopingcountrieswheretheseLABpowered

computerswillbemarketedhavelimitedrecyclinginfrastructureandmostofthebatteriesconsumedin

thesecountriesaremelteddownandsoldforscrapbytheinformalsectororinhighly inefficientsmall

smelters. The lack of sufficient large‐scale collection and environmentally sound recycling in these

countriescontributestothedegradationofpublichealthandextensiveenvironmentalcontamination.

Themarketingofthenextbillioncomputers inconjunctionwith leadbatteriesopensupanew

sourceofelectronicwaste.AsmorecomputersandroutersbegintouseLABsaspromotedbycomputer

industry leadersandphilanthropicorganizations,theleademissionsfromtheproductionandrecycling

of thebatterywill far exceed theamountofall other toxicmaterials combined in thecomputer.This

paperusesindependentmarketprojectionscoupledwithelectricitypenetrationdatatodevelopseveral

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scenarios of computer distribution in locations with intermittent or no grid electricity supply. We

estimate potential lead losses to the environment from batteries used in this expanded computer

market, assuming that current independent market projections are accurate and expressed goals of

industry and philanthropic organizations are realized. While it is difficult to estimate worldwide

computeradoptionbygeographicandeconomicstrata,thispaperpresentsthepotentialconsequences

ofinitiativestoprovidecomputerstothosewithoutelectricity.Somerecommendationswillbemadeto

mitigatethesepotentialimpacts,whilestillfacilitatingincreasedaccesstocomputersandtheInternet.

2. Methodology

This paper quantifies total lead emissions for new computer users based on independent

marketingprojectionsconductedbyothers [4]andbackedbystatementsfromorganizationsaimedat

delivering computers to the poorest economic strata. These country‐specific market projections are

matched with country specific electricity access throughout the world. Emission rates are based on

aggregateproductionefficienciesoftheleadindustrythroughouttheworld,reportedbyMaoandDong

et al. [5]. Becauseof thedominanceof China inmarket projections for new computer users, we rely

heavilyonChina’s lead industry environmentalperformance to illustrate leadpollutionpathways,but

werelyonworldwidedatatocalculatecountryorregion‐specific loses.Chinaisparticularly important

because it also accounts for over one‐third of the projected new computer users. Error! Reference

source not found. illustrates the framework of analysis, linkingmarket projections, electricity access,

low‐incomecomputeraccesscampaignsandenvironmentalimpacts.

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IndependentPCMarketProjectionsbyCountry

(1.4BillionNewPCsbetween2007and2015)

WorldwideElectricityAccessbyCountry

GoalsandMissionStatementsofPCIndustryLeadersandPhilanthropic

Organizations

LowElectricityAccessPCMarketPenetration

Scenario

(AssumeHighLAB,LowUPS)

MediumElectricityAccessPCMarket

PenetrationScenario

(AssumeMidLAB,MidUPS)

HighElectricityAccessPCMarketPenetration

Scenario

(AssumeLowLAB,HighUPS)

LeadPollutionEstimatesfromLABandUPSusetosupportPCadoption

ApplyRegionalLeadEmissionRatesfromProductionandRecycling

Figure1:FrameworkforAnalysisofLeadPollutiontoSupportPCAdoption

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Foremissionsrateswerelyextensivelyon thosepublishedbyMaoandLuetal. [7],Maoand

Yangetal.[8],andMaoandDongetal.[5],whoidentifypollutionandlossratesofvariousprocessesin

theproductionofLABs throughout theworld.From thesesourcesweestimatepollution ratesduring

thelifecycleofaLABbasedoninputsandoutputsfromeachprocess,includingmining,concentrating,

smelting,manufacturing,anddisposal.

3. LeadPollution

Ironically,oneofthelargestpredictednegativeimpactsfromtheproliferationofleadbatteries

for this purpose is on the educational opportunity and intellectual function of the very population

targetedby thesemarketingplansandphilanthropicprograms.Atevenrelatively low‐levelexposures,

leadisaneurotoxindemonstratedtoreduceschoolperformance, lowerstandardizedtestscores(e.g.

IQ) and thereby reduce lifetime earning capacity. Such impacts may be particularly detrimental to

countriesseekingeconomicdevelopmentthroughexpansionoftheserviceeconomy.

Airborne lead emissions come from primary smelters, battery manufacturing facilities, and

secondary smelters where batteries are recycled. Lead from these sources are inhaled and can be

ingestedastheseparticlessettleindustandsoil.Wateremissionsandsoilcontaminationfrommining,

smelting,manufacturingand recyclingoperationsarealsosignificant sourcesof exposure.Small scale

operations where batteries are melted are the most common way to process used batteries in

developingcountries.

3.1. LeadPollutionRates

Emissionof lead through thebattery life cyclecanbequantifiedusinganumberofmethods,

including input‐output models or environmental emission monitoring. Lead emission rates can be

relatively low for facilities indevelopedcountries,on theorderof 3‐5%of the leadmass inabattery

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over the entire production process [7, 10]. While this may seem small, it can amount to tonnes of

emissionsasexemplifiedintheannualToxicReleaseInventoryintheU.S.wherebatteriesconsumeover

80%ofallleadproduction.LeademissionsfromthemostrecentToxicReleaseInventory(TRI)amount

to202kilotonnesin2006,wherethemajorityofthatreleaseison‐sitelanddisposal[11].Thesituation

is more alarming in the developing world because of low quality ore, antiquated technology, and

unregulated production. Loss rates vary greatly depending upon the manufacturing and recycling

technologyemployed.Forexample,themostefficientmanufacturersandrecyclersloselessthan5%of

the lead content of the battery. However, it is estimated that more than 50% of the weight of the

batterymaybelosttotheenvironmentintypicalbackyardrecyclingoperationsinthedevelopingworld

[9,12,13].

ALAB’slifecycleconsistsoffoursub‐processes:1)processingandrefiningprimaryorsecondary

lead,2)manufactureofthebattery,3)useofthebattery,and4)disposalorrecycling.Theleadrefining

processincludescrushingoreandconcentratingleadmetalsfromtheorethroughaseriesofchemical

reactions.Theconcentrateissinteredandfinallysmeltedinablastfurnace.Themetalproducedbythe

smelting process is refined, resulting inoutputofnearlypure lead.Secondarysmelting reliesonused

batteries and recycled scrapbut operates in a similarmanner. The loss rates of highly efficient large

scale secondary lead smelting are about twice that of primary smelting, but secondary leaddoes not

require concentrating, resulting in lower overall emission rates than when using mined ore as raw

material. Lead is also lost during the manufacture of batteries. Additionally, some lead scrap is a

byproduct of the battery manufacturing process and enters the secondary lead input stream in the

futureproductionofbatteries.Finally,asmallpercentageofusedbatteriesarenotrecycledandenter

thewastestreamintheformofsolidwaste.

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China’saggregateemission rates forproductionprocessesderived fromMaoandLuetal. [7]

are estimated, including losses from primary concentration, primary smelting, manufacture, and

secondarysmelting.Onaverage,primaryconcentrationhasalossrateof16.2%oftheinputleadmass,

primarysmeltingloses7.2%oftheinputmass,manufactureloses4.4%oftheinputmassandsecondary

smelting loses13.6%oftheinputmass;allemittedtotheenvironment intheformofsolid, liquid,or

gaseousemissions.

Batteryrecyclingreleasessignificantleademissions.InChina’scase,aggregatebatteryrecycling

lossesare13.6%ofitsleadmasstotheenvironmentduringthesecondarysmeltingprocess,compared

to 7.2% during the primary smelting process. This is due to the low efficiency in secondary smelting

operations.However,becausesecondary leaddoesnothavetogothroughtheconcentrationprocess,

recycledbatteriesdonotexperiencean initial16% lossfromtheconcentrationprocesses,sorecycled

batteries could be seen as “cleaner” than those produced from virgin material. Informal backyard

recycling has even larger loss rates andmuchof the resultingmaterial is often sold to formal sector

secondarysmelters that reprocess themetal toproduce lead that is required forhighqualitybattery

manufacturing.

Models of material flows have been developed to estimate lead losses to the environment

throughoutthegloballeadsector(notlimitedtobatteries)intheyear2000[5,15].Theresultsareless

precise thanpreviouscountry‐specificestimates[7,8],butprovideconsistentenvironmental lossrate

estimates for all continents. Table 2 shows their estimated lead loss rates for production and

manufacturingprocessesof the leadbattery industry.The lossesare in the formof tailings, slag,and

environmentalemissions.Theseratesdonotincludeanydisposallosses,assumingthatbatteryrecycling

ratesapproach100percent.Notably,MaoandLuetal.[5,15]carefullyaccountforimportsandexports

inthisglobalmodel.

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Table2:RegionalEnvironmentalLeadLossRates(metrictonnes)derivedfromMaoetal.2008[15]

India Japan USA Africa Asia

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Total Inputs 154 307 1940 281 1992 260 544 1802 Total Products 136 276 1813 204 1628 237 454 1673 Total Environmental Losses

15 23 91 75 320 19 85 94

Loss Rate (% of Inputs)

9.6% 7.5% 4.7% 26.6% 16.0% 7.2% 15.5% 5.2%

Loss Rate (% of Product Outputs)

10.9% 8.4% 5.0% 36.7% 19.6% 7.9% 18.6% 5.6%

Emission rates in the leadproductionandproductmanufacturesector vary considerablyover

theworld,withrelatively lowerrates indevelopedregions, includingtheU.S.andEurope. Incontrast,

Africanaveragelossratesexceedonethirdofthemassofthefinalproduct.InAsia,theaveragelossrate

approaches20percentofthefinalproduct.Withregion‐specificlossrates,onecanprojectleadlossesin

locationswherebatterieswillneededforthenextbillioncomputerusers.

4. LeadDemandandElectricitySupplyforComputers

TheUnitedNations[16]estimatesthat1.6billionpeoplearewithoutelectricityconstitutingone

quarteroftheworld’spopulation.Moreover,despitetrillionsofdollarsininfrastructureinvestment,1.4

billionpeoplewillstill lackelectricity in2030.Mostofthesepeopleare inruralareas inAsiaandSub‐

SaharanAfrica.Beyondthosethathavenoaccesstoelectricity,thereisarangeofbackuppowersupply

types that can serve computer userswhere electricity supply is unreliable. The battery supply needs

dependonthetypeofcomputersandroutersdevelopedandmarketed,aswellasthedemographicof

theendusers.

Leadbatteriesareeither linkeddirectlyasapowersupply toacomputer(orserver)orcanbe

employed as a component in anUninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) device, which is plugged into an

outlet.UPSsystemscanoperateonstandbyintheeventofapoweroutageoronlineinacontinuously

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operatingmodeandprovideshort‐termpower toavoidsuddenshutdownresulting indata loss.The

later systems are also sometimes referred to as “invertors” althoughboth types utilize equipment to

convertDCelectricityfrombatteriestoACpower.WeusethetermUPStocoveralltypesofsystemsfor

uninterruptiblebackuppower.

TheglobalmarketforUPSsystems is currentlyover$7billiondollarsperyearandgrowingat

approximately20percentperyear[17].InIndiawhereelectricpowersuppliesineventhelargesturban

areas are extremely unreliable, 60% of all new PCs are sold with UPS systems [18]. Very large lead

batteriesarealsousedbybusinesses,schools,andindustryforbackuppower,especiallyforcomputer

equipmentandserversthatcannotbeshutdownevenmomentarily.

4.1. ComputerDemand

Thegeographicaldistributionofareaswithoutelectricityorexperiencingshortagescorresponds

with market projections for computer technology adoption in developing countries. These market

projectionsareconsistentwithstatedphilanthropicandcorporategoalsforexpandingcomputerusers.

For example, Intel is focused on those inmiddle and lower income strata with virtually no personal

computer market penetration as shown in Figure 2 [3]. Marketing plans for selling the next billion

computers acknowledge the need to expand outside major urban centers in the more developed

countrieswhichwouldbenecessarytoreachasufficientnumberofthosewhohaveyettoadoptthis

technology.

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Figure2:ComputerMarketPenetration(fromIntel2007[3])

This paper makes no attempt to test marketing assumptions or the likely success of

philanthropic goals for distributing computers in developing countries. Rather, we rely on market

projectionsfromindependentanalysts[4]andreportedmarketstrategieswithoutcriticallyevaluating

theirprobabilityforsuccess. Independentpersonalcomputermarketprojectionsfor2015suggestthat

1.4billionadditional computeruserswillbeconnected to the Internetby2015compared to thebase

year of 2007 [4]. As markets in developed countries are saturated, expansion in Europe and North

America ispredicted tobemodest.Ofthese1.4billionnewcomputerusers,880millionwillbe in the

Asia‐Pacific Region. Error! Reference source not found. shows the geographic distribution of the

predictedPCmarket,withthemajorityofgrowthoccurringinindustrializingcountriesofAsia,primarily

ChinaandIndia.

In addition to supplying computers to those who have not yet owned them, there are plans

underwaytosupplythesenewuserswithinexpensiveInternetconnections.Asthereisaconsensusthat

manyofthenewuserswillbelocatedinareasofftheelectricitygrid,planscallforintroducingWiMax

broadbandconnections to thispopulation.These efforts,beingpromotedby for‐profitandnon‐profit

programs,areexpectedtorelyonsolartechnologywithleadstoragebatteriestorunaninterconnected

weboflocalservers.TheseprogramshavealreadybeenfieldtestedinBrazil,Indiaandothercountries.

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Effortsarealsounderwaytomakecomputersavailabletothosewhocannotaffordtoownone

outright. For example, in India the most popular program that has been implemented is to set up

computer kiosks in rural centers. Many of these locations are powered by lead batteries re‐charged

fromsolarsystemsorgenerators.Thesecondlargest leadbatterycompanyinIndiaiseveninvolvedin

promoting thesekiosks.Somemarketingplanssuch asMicrosoft’sFlexgoprogramallowusers tobuy

thecomputerovertimewithmeteredusage.

Figure3:NewPCAdoptionbyRegion‐2007‐2015(millions)derivedfromYates2007b[4]

4.2. ElectricitySupply

The geographic distribution of PC market growth throughout the world is overlaid on the

populationsthroughouttheworldwithoutelectricitytoestimatethenumberofpurelybatterypowered

PC’sand thenumberthatwillberelianton leadbatteriesforbackuppower.TheInternationalEnergy

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Agency [19] provides country‐specific estimates of the population unserved by electricity. Electricity

availabilityratesareextractedinthe67countriesincludedinthePCforecastbyYates[4](seeFigure4).

Thepattern that clearly emerges is thatmost of thenew computer growthwill occur in Asia

where the majority of the world’s population without electricity is locatedc. Furthermore, market

expansion isplannedprimarily in ruralandsemi‐ruralareas incountrieswhere electricity coverage is

even more limited and sporadic. This strong association between projected users and areas without

adequate electricity iswhy Intelandotherpromotersofexpanding the reachof this technologyhave

implementedplanstoaddressthislimitation.ItisworthnotingthatAfricaandAsia,theworld’slargest

futurecomputermarkets,havetheworld’spoorestenvironmentalperformanceintheleadproduction

sector,withlossratesof36.7%and19.6%,respectively.

cAlthoughAfricaalsohaslargepopulationswithoutelectricity,itisasignificantlysmallerprojectedcomputer

market.

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Figure4:PopulationWithoutElectricitybyRegion‐2005(millions)derivedfromUnitedNations2005[16]

Disaggregatingthesedatashowsthatsome500millionnewcomputeruserswillbeinChina,a

country where over 99% of the residents have access to electricity according to IEA estimates. It is

expectedthatalmostallofthesenewcomputeruserswillhaveaccesstogridelectricity.Ontheother

hand,only54%ofIndia’spopulation,whoareexpectedtoadopt150millionPC’sby2015,hasaccessto

electricity.ThisleavesapotentiallylargePCmarketwithoutelectricity.

4.3. LeadAcidBatteryandUninterruptiblePowerSupplyAdoption

Leadacidbatterydemandcomesthreesources:1) toprovideprimarypowerwhentheuser is

offgrid;(2)forbackuppowerwhenintermittentpowerisavailable;and(3)powerneededforreliable

internetconnectivity.Therearestilloverfourbillionpeoplewithaccesstosomeelectricity,butwithout

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computers.Itispossiblethatalmostallofthenextbillioncomputerscouldbeabsorbedbypopulations

with electricity (except in a couple of African countries where estimated national PC adoption rates

exceed electricity availability rates). This is unlikely however given the stated plans of technology

companiesandmajordonororganizations(Table1)toheavilyinvestineffortsto introducecomputers

tothelowestincomestratainruralareasofdevelopingcountries.Weexpectthatalargeportionofthe

new recipientswill be either entirely without electricity or only have access to unreliable electricity.

Fromthese twodatasets,weassumedifferentadoptionratesbythosewithandwithoutelectricityto

estimateleadbatteryuseandenvironmentalimpacts.

Basedontheavailabledatasources,marketingprojections,andtheclaimsofthosepromoting

computer adoption, we developed three scenarios for LAB demand from new computer users. From

disaggregatecountry‐leveldata;weestimatedthepercentageofthenewuserpopulationthatwouldbe

entirelywithoutelectricity.Thefirstscenarioassumesthatpublicandprivateeffortswillhaveminimal

impactinbridgingthe“digitaldivide”andthereforeonly25%ofthenewcomputers(109million)would

beadoptedbythosewithoutelectricity,whiletheother75%wouldbeadoptedbythosewithelectricity.

Thenext scenarioassumes that the1.4billioncomputersadoptedby2015willbe equallydistributed

over the computer‐less population in each country, regardless of electricity access. For example this

assumptionsuggestsonly1%of theapproximately 500millioncomputers inChinawould go to those

without electricity, since only 1% of China’s population is without electricity. Summing across all

countries covered by Yates [4] indicates that 154 million computer users will rely on batteries as a

primarypowersupplyunder thismodel. A thirdscenarioassumes thatpublicandprivate investment

would be largely successful in bridging the “digital divide” and75%of thenew computer users (258

million) would be thosewithout electricity, while 25% of the demand would be filled by thosewith

electricity.

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Globalleadlossesarecalculatedasfollows(foronescenario):

!

PbEmissionLowLABScenario = min(25%PCi,Pi

noElectric) " n "MLAB

Pb +max(75%PCi,PCi # PinoElectric

) " pUPS "m "MUPS

Pb( ) " ei[ ]i

$

where;

!

PbEmissionLowLABScenariois total worldwide emissions.

!

PCiis the number of PCs projected for

nation i,

!

Pi

noElectric isthepopulationofnation iwithoutelectricity,

!

n isthenumberofLABsneededper

PCthat isprimarilyreliantonLABpower,

!

MLAB

Pb isthemassofleadinaLABtosupportonePC,

!

pUPS is

theproportionofPCsthatwilluseaUPSsystem,

!

m isthenumberofUPSreplacementbatteriesneeded

overthelifeofaPCthatusesaUPSsystem,

!

MUPS

Pb isthemassofleadinaUPStosupportonePC,and

!

ei

isthelossrateofleadproductionandrecyclinginnationiexpressedasapercentageoftheoutputlead

mass.

The estimated number of computers that will be usedwith primary LABs is shown in Error!

Reference source not found.. These scenarios identify a range of possible lead pollution values that

couldreasonablybeexpectedbasedonindustrystatementsandmarketreports.

Thereissignificantlylessinformationonthepopulationwithoutreliableelectricity,whichlikely

farexceedsthosewithoutanyelectricity.Computeruserswithoutreliableelectricitystillrequiresome

alternativesource foruninterruptedpower for computer equipmentand Internetconnectivity.This is

already the case in much of the developing world where power supplies are suffering from rapid

increasesindemandforelectricity,antiquatedinfrastructure,andpoorplanning.Aselectricitydemand

isexpectedtoincreasegreaterthancapacityinmanypartsoftheworld,wecananticipatethesetrends

tocontinue.Thesituationislikelytogrowconsiderablyworseaseffortstoaddressclimatechangeare

puttingmorepressureoncountriestolimittheuseofcoalandotherhighlypollutingpowersources.

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Error! Reference source not found. shows theassumedprimarybattery power requirements,

coupled with assumptions of UPS demand. The demand for UPS systems is inversely related to LAB

adoption,sincethosecomputersusingprimarypowerLAB’sdonotrequireUPSsystems.Thenumberof

UPS systems estimated for each scenario was derived as follows. All major computer markets in

industrializing countries (primarily those in Asia and Africa) are assumed to have intermittent power

supply.WiththeexceptionofChina,weassumethatamongallcomputersthathaveaccesstoelectricity

fromthegrid,60%(therateobservedinIndia)willutilizeaUPS.Inaddition,wedonotincludeanyUPS

systemsfortheserversthatwillberequiredforInternetaccess.SinceChinaconstitutesoverone‐third

of new PC users, country‐specific UPS market data were used to estimate that only 2.5% of new

computersarebeingequippedwithUPSsystems[17,20].

Table3:LeadEmissionsfromLABandUPSUsefortheNext1.4BillionComputers(2007‐2015)derivedfromMaoetal.2008[15],Yates2007b[4],andFrostandSullivan2007[17]

Scenarios

Computers Requiring LAB (no electricity)

millions

Computers Requiring

UPS (intermittent electricity)

millions

Lead Loss LAB (kt)

Lead Loss UPS (kt)

Total Lead Loss (kt)

Scenario 1: 75% of new computers are distributed to those with electricity first

109 324 827 423 1,250

Scenario 2: Computers are distributed equally, independent of electricity access

154 282 1,197 368 1,565

Scenario 3: 25% of new computers are distributed to those with electricity first

258 234 1,994 303 2,296

4.4. LeadLossesfromComputerUse

GiventhatprimarypowerLABs,usedtopoweracomputerorcommunityserver,weigh17kgon

averageand60‐70%oftheweightislead[5,10],thetotalleadrequirementisabout12kgperbattery.

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AnexampleofestimatedenvironmentallossesispresentedinError!Referencesourcenotfound.,using

thelossratesderivedfromMaoandLuetal.[7].

Table4:LeadLossfrom12kgLeadContentBatteryDuringProductionandDisposalinChinaderivedfromMaoetal.2006[7]

Process

Losses (kg) Lead Acid Battery Recycle Rates 90% 100%

Concentration (Primary) 1.4 1.2

Smelter (Primary-Virgin Material)

0.5 0.5

Smelter (Secondary-Recycled Scrap and Used Battery)

1.0 1.1

Manufacture 0.6 0.6

Total Emissions 3.5 3.4

Battery Disposal Loss 1.2 0.0

Total Losses 4.7 3.4

In this example, with an assumed 100% recycling rate, 3.4 kg of lead are lost during the

productionprocesses toproduceabatterycontaining12 kgof lead,ora loss rateof28%of the final

battery leadcontent.Under lowerrecyclingrateassumptions,moreleadis lostduring theproduction

processes due to more reliance on virgin lead resources and disposed lead entering the solid waste

stream.Becausebatteryusewillmostlikelybehighlydispersedthroughoutruralareas,theprobability

of efficient and formal recycling practices could be low, resulting in lower recycling rates overall and

higheroverallpollutionrates.

Exacerbating the problem, most deep‐cycle LABs experience heavily degraded performance

afterabout300discharge‐rechargecycles,andmost requirereplacementevery2‐3years. It isunclear

how long the computer replacement cycle will be in developing countries, but it will likely be

significantly longer than the current replacement cycle of 4‐5 years in the developed world [4]. This

indicatesthateachcomputerwouldrequirebetweentwoandfourbatteriesover its lifetime.Utilizing

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reported efficiencies for Asia’s battery manufacturing and recycling operations, between 4.8 and 9.6

kilogramsofleadwouldbereleasedtotheenvironmentoverthelifetimeofeachcomputerrelianton

batterypowerwithanassumed100%recyclingrate.

AlthoughUPSsystemsvaryforhomeandofficeenvironments,all containsmall leadbatteries,

forshortdurationbackuppowerapplications.Basedonasmallsurvey,residentialUPSsystemscontain

between2and4kilogramsof lead.ConsideringAsiaagainandusing thesamerecycling infrastructure

thatisoutlinedabovewitha100%recyclingrate,anaverageUPSsystemwith3kgofleadwouldemit

0.60 kg of lead over its lifetime. UPS systems are generally guaranteed for 3 years, implying that a

computerwillrequiretwoUPSsystems(oratleastoneUPSbatteryreplacement)overitsusablelife.

Whiletheseemissionratesmayseemsmallindividually,whenscaleduptothepossibledemand

ofcomputersinthedevelopingworld,theaggregatereleasesaresignificant.WeassumethatthreeLABs

are required for each fully battery powered computer over its usable life and two UPS systems (or

replacement battery) are required for each computer with intermittent supply over its life. Error!

Referencesourcenotfound.showstheleadlossesofthenext1.4billioncomputersprojectedbyYates

[4]withtheLABandUPSassumptionsoutlinedinSection4.4.

Theseextraordinarilyhighleademissionswillredefinethewayweviewe‐wasteforthecoming

billioncomputers.Forperspective,CRTmonitors(whicharequicklybeingreplacedbyLCDmonitors in

thecurrentcomputermarket)containonly1.2kgoflead,buthavebeenthesubjectofseveralefforts

attemptingtominimizetheentryofthisleadintothemunicipalwastestream[21,22].Evenunderthe

bestrecyclingscenarios,usingbatteriesaspowersupplieswillreleaseapproximatelyfourtimesthelead

wasteintotheenvironmentpercomputer,comparedtoCRTmonitors.

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4.5. Discussion

Toputthecalculatedleadlossesintoperspective,theenvironmentalreleasesestimatedforthe

next1.4billioncomputersareanorderofmagnitudehigherthantheannualleademissionlevelsinthe

U.S.asreportedbytheToxicReleaseInventory[11],orbetweenfourandseventimestheweightofthe

EmpireStateBuilding.These lossesonlyaccountfornewcomputersales thatwilloccurthrough2015

andnotanyof theimpactsforequipmentcurrently inuse.Onaverage,weestimate that theplanned

distributionofcomputersindevelopingcountrieswillresultin0.9to1.6kilogramsofleademissionsper

computer.Atthesametime,theseestimatesdonotaccountforleademissionsfrombatteriesthatwill

beusedfortransportation,photovoltaicsolarsystems,Internetconnectivity,andotherpurposesrelated

todistributingthenextwaveofcomputers.

Our assumptions outlined above and the market projections provided by others, come with

considerable uncertainty. There are four primary areas where alternate inputs could impact our

findings:

(1)Thispaperreliesonfuturecomputeradoptionpatternsfromthird‐partymarketprojections.

Totheextentthatthoseprojectionsareoverlyoptimistic,thentheestimatesreportedheremay

overestimatefutureleademissions.Althoughcompanieshavepledgedtoputcomputersinthe

handsof those in the lowereconomicstratum inmore ruralareas throughout thedeveloping

world,thisconcepthasnotyetbeenfullytested.

(2)Themarketprojectionsthatwerelyondonotdelineatetheproportionofdesktops,laptops,

andevensmallernetbooks thatwillbedistributed in the future.There is someevidence that

PC’s designed for the developing world will be designed and perform very differently than

current PC’s [23]. The One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative for instance allows AC and DC

rechargingcapability,allowing the laptops tobe rechargedwithgrid electricity, solar systems,

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generatorsor leadacidbatteries.Althoughthesesegmentshavedifferentpowerrequirements

andbatterycapacities,allmustberechargedorpoweredfromanexternalsource.Theextentto

whichbackuppowersystemsareneededis lessclearwithoutknowingmoreabout themixof

computersthatwillbedistributed.

(3)Manyof thepowersourcesand leadbatteriesusedforcomputerswillalsobesharedwith

electricaldevices includingtelevisions,mobilephonesoradditionalcomputers.Since leadacid

batteriesdeterioratebasedonthenumberofdischarge/rechargecycles,thesemultipleusesare

likelytocontributetoshorterbatterylivesandmorerecycling.Batterylifecanalsobeaffected

byextremetemperaturesandotherfactors.

(4) Much of the estimated loss is due to small‐scale battery manufacturing and recycling

activities that are highly inefficient. We rely on recent estimates of recycling efficiencies

reported in the literature. If current trends continue, rapidly increasing demand for lead

batterieswill likelypromptmore informalrecyclingthat isverydifficult tocontrolorregulate.

Therefore we assume that manufacturing and recycling efficiencies will remain constant. If

governments or other eco‐labeling incentives are successful at initiating universal collection

programsandencouraging improvements inmanufacturingandrecycling,thiscanreduce lead

emissionsfromthebatteriesusedforthenextbillioncomputers.

Furthermore,competing technologiesforconnecting to the Internetmaydisplacedemandfor

computersandreduceleadbatteryconsumption.Portablephonesandpersonaldigitalassistants(PDAs)

mayhavegreatermarketpenetrationanddelaycomputeradoptionintheseemergingmarketcountries

wheredemandforcomputersisprojectedtobethegreatest.

OurassumptionsconcerningthelifecycleofthesenewcomputersandassociatedLABsmayalso

introduce some bias in our calculations of lead emissions.We know that poor quality LABs that are

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commonly sold in developing countries have a considerably shorter life span than new branded

products. At the same time, consumers in developing countries may be more inclined to keep

computers for many more years before seeking a replacement. Therefore our assumption of three

replacementLABspercomputerandonereplacementperUPScangreatlyunderestimate leadbattery

consumptionandemissionsoverthecomputerlifecycle.Alsoifoneweretoaccountforbackuppower

providedbylargerUPSsystemsthatarecommoninschools,officesandothercommercialapplications,

thismayalsosignificantlyincreaseemissionestimates.

While lead loss rates are high in industrializing countries, it should be noted that human

exposurepathwaysvarybasedonmodeofleademissionsintotheenvironmentandwithcharacteristics

of the exposedpopulation.For instance,airborne lead emissions inanurbanareawouldpresumably

have much higher public health impacts than fugitive emissions and soil contamination from mine

tailingsaroundarural leadmine.Airborne leadalsocontributestoexposuresovermanyyearsafter it

settlesindustandsoil[24].

There are generally insufficient data in the aggregate to rank the importance of competing

exposurepathwaysresulting inoverexposuresto leadinanygivenpopulation.Eventheabsorptionof

airborne lead will vary greatly by particle size. The most dangerous forms are the smallest fumes

generatedfromheatingleadasrequiredforsmelting,batterymanufacture,andrecyclingactivities[25].

Leadcanalsobeintroducedintotheecosystembypoorlyengineeredwaterandminetailingtreatment

facilities[26‐29].Inmostcases,halftothreequartersoftheenvironmentalemissionsareintheformof

tailings at the mine site. These tailings, if properly contained, pose limited health risks, though

developingcountryminesgenerallydonotfollowinternationalbestpracticesontailingtreatment.

Newer smelting technologies with improved environmental controls are being adopted and

future increases in thepriceof leadmayspur improvements in efficiency to lower thepredicted loss

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rates over time. However, improvements that would result from developing a larger‐scale recycling

sectorwillrequireconsolidationthat isonlyachievablewithnationallevelcollectionsystemsthathave

notyetbeenadoptedinmostdevelopingcountries.

Newbatterytechnologyincludinglithiumionandotherbatterychemistriesmaydisplacesome

of the lead‐acid batteries required during the same time framewe used to calculate loss rates. The

adoptionofthesealternativeswilllikelybegovernedmorebypricethananyotherfactorandtherefore

areunlikelytocaptureasignificantmarketshareoftheprojectednewcomputerusers.Asotherbattery

intensivesectors(suchastheelectricvehicleindustry)gainmomentum,advancedbatterytechnologies

couldbecomemorecosteffective,butpricesareunlikelytosufficientlydropintheprojectedtimeframe

for computer adoption. In addition, lithium ion batteries pose different challenges in that currently

there is no recycling infrastructure that can convert today’s diverse battery chemistries into useable

stockformakingnewbatteries.

5. Recommendations

While this paper does not suggest limiting computer introduction into poor communities in

developingcountries,itdoesdemonstratethatwidespreaduseofLABpoweredcomputers,serversand

UPSsystemsisgoingtoincreasethemagnitudeofleademissionsundertheproposedscenarios.While

we canexpect someenvironmental improvementsparticularly innewLABrecycling facilities, existing

recyclersmay continue to operate at less than optimal efficiencies for years. In addition, developing

countriesstillfacedifficultchallengesaddressingemissionsfromtheinformalrecyclingsectorwhichcan

stillcontinuetogrowalongwiththeexpandingmarket.Sincethedemandforleadbatteriesspansmany

industrial sectors, the computer industry could join efforts with automotive, industrial, and energy

sectors to improve the environmental performance during manufacturing and the recovery of lead

batteries.

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Lead batteries can be manufactured and recycled with far fewer emissions. Programs to

encourage improvements in the manufacturing of lead batteries can be adopted by businesses,

governmentsanddonors involved inpromoting computer technology. Preferredpurchasingprograms

can provide incentives to companies that reduce environmental lead emissions and take back used

batteriesforenvironmentallysoundrecycling.Independentthird‐partycertificationhasbeenintroduced

to reward battery manufacturers that meet minimum standards. The Better Environmental

SustainabilityTargets (BEST)certificationallows companies thatdemonstratecompliancewithspecific

performancemeasuresinanannualaudittoplaceaneco‐labelonleadbatteries.

Inordertoreducethepredictednegativeenvironmentalimpactsassociatedwiththesignificant

increaseinLABconsumptiondedicatedtocomputertechnologyindevelopingcountries,therewillalso

needtobemoreformalcollectionmechanismsforusedbatteriestojustifytheinvestmentnecessaryfor

moreefficientrecyclingplants.Collectionsystemsmustprovideconsumerswithanincentivetoreturn

usedbatteriessothattheywillbeprocessedonlyatformalbatteryrecyclingfacilities.Thisisdifficultto

achieve without regulation calling for tax incentives,mandated deposits, or refunds since large‐scale

collectionandrecyclingrequirescostlypollutioncontrolsandhighertransportationcosts.Withoutthese

measures, the informal sector, with loss rates near 50 percent, will continue to capture a significant

shareofusedbatteriesforprocessing.

Governmentscanmandatebatterytake‐backmechanismswithdepositsorpurchasediscounts.

Deposit systems require consumers to pay a set amount at the point of purchase that would be

refunded at the end of the battery life if it is returned to authorized retailers or collection centers.

Purchasediscountprogramsworkwithasimilarincentiveexceptbatterymanufacturersorretailersare

requiredtopayabounty intheformofadiscountthatwouldapplytothepurchaseofareplacement

battery.Bothdepositandpurchasediscountprogramswillonlyworktocapturealargershareofused

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batteries from the informal sector if themandated feeordeposit is setatahigher rate thanwhat is

beingofferedbycompetingcollectors.

The producer responsibility model that is gaining momentum in response to the growing

problem of e‐waste would require battery manufacturers to provide financial incentives and

infrastructuretorecoverandtrackthecollectionandrecyclingofleadbatteries.Indevelopedcountries

therehasbeenconsiderablesuccessesinimplementingtheseprogramsnotonlywithleadbatteries,but

alsoforbeveragecontainers,othertypesofbatteries,ande‐waste[1,30,31].Alternatively,inorderto

mitigatethenegativeexternalitiesassociatedwithLABproductionandrecycling,thegovernmentcould

developatax,targetedatallLABs.Thetaxrevenuecouldthenbeusedforlarge‐scalebatterycollection,

andeducatingtheleadindustrytoencourageimprovementsinenvironmentalperformance.

Simultaneously, improvements in electricity access and improved efficiency of the electric

power sector can also significantly reduced demand for LABs. Improved efficiency could allowmore

reliableelectricity supplywheredemandexceedssupply, reducing the requirements forUPSsystems.

Finally, computer power management improvements, along withmore energy efficient technologies,

couldsignificantlyreducethepowerrequirements,andthusLABsizerequirements.

Furthermore,thosebusinessesanddonorsadvocatingtheadoptionofcomputertechnologyto

low income and rural communities in developing countries must take responsibility for purchasing

batteries from companies thatmeet environmental emission standards and collect usedbatteries for

formal sector recycling. This responsibility may be contractually shifted to vendors supplying this

equipmentbut,itmustbeaccountedforattheprojectplanningphase.Giventhelargergoalsexpressed

by bothphilanthropic andprivate businesses active in thismarket, it is beholdenupon them to also

makeinvestmentstoensurethat leadlossratesarereducedbypromotingmoreefficientleadbattery

manufacturingandrecycling.Withoutaccountingforthepotentialincreases in leadpollutionexpected

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fromtheseactivities,theeducationandeconomicdevelopmentgoalsoftheseprogramswillneverbe

fullyrealized.Benefitsofnarrowingthe“digitaldivide”willbeoffsetbyincreasingthegapineducational

opportunitycausedbymoreprevalentandhigherleadexposures.

Computersthatareconnectedtothe internetand in thehandsof the lower incomegroups in

developingcountrieshavethepotentialtoeducateandempowerapopulationthathashadlittleaccess

toeducationalandglobalinformationsystemsinthepast.Thoughtheinitiativesputforthbytechnology

companiesandphilanthropicorganizationsarenoble, theremustbemoreconsiderationgiven to the

scopeofleadpollutionthatwepredictwillbecreatedbythenextbillioncomputerusers.Themarketing

anddonationofcomputersandserversthatarepoweredbyLABs,withoutconcernforhowbatteries

aremanufacturedorrecycledisalarmingandislikelytoresultinsignificantincreasesinleadpoisoning

inthesamepopulationstargetedforcomputers.

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