Planetary boundaries: an EEA perspective

Planetary boundaries: an EEA perspective

Dr Hans Bruyninckx Executive Director, European Environment Agency

Brussels, 23 January 2014, EEAC Workshop

The speech for this presentation can be viewed in the slide notes below.

The European Environment Agency

The European Environment Agency:

an independent provider of information,

assessments and knowledge

builds bridges between science and policy

depends upon strong networks to carry out its work

33 member countries, plus 6 cooperating countries

… and publishes a report on state of, trends in and prospects for

the environment in Europe every five years (SOER)

Global context

Our development model appears successful...

The proportion of people living in extreme poverty has been halved at the global level.

The hunger reduction target is within reach.

Over 2 billion people gained access to improved sources of drinking water since 1990.

The proportion of slum dwellers in the cities and metropolises of the developing world is declining.

...but ‘development’ has damaged the environment

Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased by more than 46 per cent since 1990.

Nearly one third of marine fish stocks have been over-exploited.

Many species are at risk of extinction, despite an increase in protected areas.

Decline of ecosystems accross the board.

Most MDGs have been moderately to rather successful.– Clear goals work– Broad political support is essential– Transparent monitoring and reporting have an impact

The MDG indicators illustrate the lack of ‘sustainability’ of the successes.– Lack of clear and especially of comprehensive environmental objectives– Lack of linkages between environmental goals and socio-economic goals– Lack of insights into the socio-economic driving forces behind resource and

environmental degradation

Two possible conclusions

Most MDGs have been moderately to rather successful.– Clear goals work– Broad political support is essential– Transparent monitoring and reporting have an impact

The MDG indicators illustrate the lack of ‘sustainability’ of the successes.– Lack of clear and especially of comprehensive environmental objectives– Lack of linkages between environmental goals and socio-economic goals– Lack of insights into the socio-economic driving forces behind resource and

environmental degradation

Resource use and ecosystem resilience under conditions of globalisation and limited natural resources

Two possible conclusions

The twin challenge

Source: UNEP (2012) - GEO5

Source: UNEP (2012) - GEO5

‘good life’

Within environmental limits

The twin challenge

Past and projected global economic output (2005 USD PPP), 1996–2050

Note: gross domestic product expressed in billion 2005 US dollars at purchasing power parity

Continued economic growth

Source: OECD (2013) - All Statistics - OECD iLibrary

North America Europe Central and South America

Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North

Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

200920202030

Mill

ion

Middle class population by world regions - 2009, 2020 and 2030

Continued economic growth

Source: Kharas (2010)

Resource use

Note: *projection

Source: SERI (2013) - SERI Global Material Flows Database.

Europe 2020 Strategy

Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.

Roadmap for a resource efficient Europe (one of seven flagship initiatives).

7th EAP

Protect nature and strengthen ecological resilience.

Boost sustainable resource-efficient low-carbon growth.

Effectively address environment-related threats to health.

EU Policy context

ECOSYSTEMS

Policy

Values

Technology

Science

Market

Industry

SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMSproviding social needs and value

Environmental externalities

Ecosystemservices

system

system system

Foodsystem

Energysystem

Mobilitysystem

Living within ecological limits

EU-15 EU-12

EU-12: BG, CY, CZ, EE, HU, LT, LV, MT, PL, SI, SK, RO

Material use decoupling: EU statistics

EU-15: AT, BE, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, GR, IE, IT, LU, NL, PT, SE, UK

Source: EEA (2012) - Material resources and waste, 2012 update

Closing the cycle?

Efficiency throughout life cycle

Closing the cycle?

Waste = resource

Limit input of resourcesSubstitute scarce resources

Ecosystem resilience must be explicitly targeted

Efficiency alone does not make ecosystems resilient

Resource efficiencyGreenhouse gas emissions

Transboundary air pollution

Air pollution

Maritime transport emissions

Water use

Decoupling / recycling

Ecosystem resilienceGlobal climate change

Marine biodiversity

Air quality in urban areas

Terrestrial biodiversity

Water status

Ecological footprint

Key: improving stable /mixed progress deteriorating

Efficiency gains are not sufficient on their own

Neither technology shifts

Efficiency gains are not sufficient on their own

Neither technology shifts

Need for systemic approach

The need for transitions

Persistent problems demand fundamental solutions– Regular policy offers no solutions– Market forces are not sufficient– Incrementalism is not sufficient

→ Transitions

= fundamental shifts in the systems that fulfil societal needs,

through profound changes in dominant structures, practices,

technologies, policies, lifestyles, thinking …

Systems thinking

Solution for persistent problems?

→ fundamental systemic changes are required

Socio-technical systems (Rotmans & Loorbach 2010)

– consist of:• Structure: material infrastructure, technology, institutions, economic reality

• Culture: dominant images, values, paradigms

• Practices: routines, ‘normal’ system behaviour

– are linked to societal functions

– present certain dysfunctions

Fundamental changes at systemic level: ‘system innovation’

System innovation

Source: UNEP (2011)

Targets are needed for the 2020-2050 period

Nessesary but problematic agenda!

Poor understanding of key concepts:– Old concept/discourse,– Planetary boundaries, safe operating space,– Popular translations: footprint, Earth Overshoot Day, there is no planet B,

we will need three planets if, …

All remain abstract and hard to concretise.

Hardly any resonance in political sphere.

Wrestling with the growth concept.

What are boundary conditions for green growth, blue growth?

Hard to move from technological efficiency paradigm to a transitions paradigm.

EEA’s agenda for the next 5 years

Systemic analysis in light of transitions.

Co-creation of the necessary knowledge base.

Half-way point idea.

Specific attention.– Ecosystem and natural resource accounting (JRC, ESTAT, RTD, …)– Circular economy, materials transition, resource efficiency

Developing meaningful metrics and methods of analysis (7EAP evaluation, beyond GDP process; SOER 2020).

Thank you