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1 1 Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012 SIR's Area 2 $ums Investment Group “Turning on a Dime”
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Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

Jan 03, 2016

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Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012. SIR's Area 2 $ums Investment Group “Turning on a Dime”. 1. Agenda. Global growth is slowing European debt problems Are we experiencing inflation or deflation? Strong Dollar The fear of the future problem of the U.S. Treasury debt - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

1

1

Peter C. Karp

Karp Capital ManagementOctober 24, 2012

SIR's Area 2 $ums Investment Group

“Turning on a Dime”

Page 2: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

2

Agenda

Global growth is slowing

European debt problems

Are we experiencing inflation or deflation?

Strong Dollar

The fear of the future problem of the U.S. Treasury debt

Karp Capital Management – Who we are

Summary

Page 3: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Budget DeficitProperty Tax Declines

Va

llejo

,

CA

Cre

dit

R

isk Cha

pter

9

Ratings Migration

Dodd-Frank Act

Liqu

idity Pension

ReformDeficit Financing

OP

EB

Ref

orm

Tax ReformLow RateEnvironment

Jefferson County, AL

Market Complexity

Harrisburg, PA

Sto

ckto

n, C

A

Downgrades

Tax Reform Vol

cker

Rul

e

State Aid Cuts

Falling Revenues

Fis

cal

Clif

f

Issuer Transparency

Higher Volatility

Political Stalemate

Meredith Whitney

Disappearance of AAA Insurance

….Cast Clouds Over The Market

Negative Headlines…

Page 4: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Major Drivers In Washington, DC

Fiscal Cliff

Regulatory Agendas

2012 Elections

Page 5: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Most Likely Scenario

Majorities in the House and Senate will be very small regardless of who wins control in each chamber

Page 6: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Could cause a 20% to 30% decline in corporate profits

Sources: Congressional Budget Office/Fidelity and other economists.

What Is The Fiscal Cliff?

Could result in a 3%-5% drag on GDP

Could drive unemployment up to 9 percent

But, continuing on current path, could result in debt reaching 90% of GDP by 2022…

Scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts =

up to $606 billion

Bush-era tax cut expiration $221

billion

Other changes $116b

Payroll tax relief & extended

unemployment insurance $121b

Budget sequester $65b

Tax extenders $65b

Healthcare reform taxes $18b

Page 7: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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* Includes 3.8% tax on unearned income from the federal healthcare law and reinstatement of the personal exemption and itemized deduction phase outs.

15.0% 15.0%

35.0% 35.0%

25.0%

44.6%

40.8%

55.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Top Capital Gains Rate Top Dividend Rate Top Income Tax Rate Estate and Gift Tax Rate

Today If allowed to expire*

Potential Tax Rate Impact

Page 8: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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What To Expect In The Next Few Months

October November December January February

Fiscal year 2013 begins

Election day

Holidays

“Lame Duck” session of Congress

“Fiscal cliff”

Debt ceiling reached

New Administration & Congress

President proposes FY 2014 budget

Thanksgiving

Page 9: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Mutual Funds and ETFs

Since December 2007, investors have favored fixed–income securities, plowing over 1.1 trillion of net flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs while equity funds have only received around $33 billion..

Page 10: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Current valuations…

…suggest decent return expectations.

Page 11: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Today’s Flows May Offer…

…Only Low Yields and Low Diversification

Page 12: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Consider What Can Happen When You…

…Introduce Non-Traditional Asset Classes

Page 13: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Karp Capital Management

Ranked one of the top 25 Wealth Advisors in the Bay Area

Over $170MM in Assets Under Management

Access to top Financial Institutions & Service Providers

Portfolios Designed & Managed In-house for Individuals, Qualified & Non-Qualified Retirement Plans

Single Point of Contact to Manage your Investments

Unbiased Advice, No Hidden Agendas or Competing Objectives

Local Personalized Service and Customized Solutions

Total Fee Transparency – Documented by ADV Form, requirement of SEC

Page 14: Peter C. Karp Karp Capital Management October 24, 2012

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Contact

Peter C. KarpKarp Capital ManagementSan Francisco, CATel: (415) 345-8185 [email protected]

Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness, and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein, including forecast returns, reflect our judgment on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Such options and estimates, including forecast returns, involve a number of assumptions that may not prove valid. Further, investments in international markets can be affected by a host of factors, including political or social conditions, diplomatic relations, limitations or removal of funds or assets, or imposition of (or change in) exchange control or tax regulation in such markets. The past performance of securities or other investments does not necessarily indicate or predict future performance, and the value of investments and income arising there from can fall as well as rise; the investor may get back less than what was invested; and no assurance can be given that any portfolio or investment described herein would yield favorable investment results. We or our associated persons may act upon or use material in this report prior to publication. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without our written authority.