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Part of Aberdeen Property Investors Real Estate Investment Market Russia – Experiences and Expectations Cannes, 11 March 2009 Dr Thomas Beyerle DEGI mbH,

Mar 31, 2015



  • Slide 1

Part of Aberdeen Property Investors Real Estate Investment Market Russia Experiences and Expectations Cannes, 11 March 2009 Dr Thomas Beyerle DEGI mbH, Frankfurt/M. Slide 2 Macroeconomic data Slide 3 Russia economical overview Source: RESEARCH, 2009 Slide 4 Macroeconomic data comments General view for Russia: high GDP growth over the last 10 years a sharp slowdown in 2009, due to: the large drop in the oil prices the significant tightening of credit conditions which has resulted in a falling rouble and rising interest rates. Medium-term view: a strong rebound in Asian economies by 2010/2011 would lead to another period of rising oil/commodity prices, which will benefit Russia Slide 5 Property Market Slide 6 Russia largest country of the world (space) Slide 7 Main investment universe St. Petersburg Moscow Aberdeen Property Investors 15 Ulitsa Chapaeva 197101 St. Petersburg Slide 8 Newspaper headlines Moscow is developing to a tenant dominated market THOMAS DAILY, 30 January 2009 Building freeze for Europes highest office tower in Moscow FAZ, 23 November 2008 Government aid for real estate market new projected cities Handelsblatt, 17 October 2008 Partner of ECE puts shopping center projects on hold THOMAS DAILY, 19 November 2008 30 %-decrease in residential use THOMAS DAILY, 19 November 200/8 Hotel market transferred from luxury class to middle class in Moscow Allgemeine Hotel- und Gastronomiezeitung, 22 November 2008 Slide 9 Market Entry Model Russia in global comparison High risk market entry conditions Slide 10 Degree of maturity Europe Proceeding degree of maturity Source: RESEARCH, 2009 Slide 11 Vacancy peaking Further fall in rents Decrease in construction activity time Rental level Growth phase Correction phase Downturn phase Recovery Phase Decreasing vacancy Rental growth picking up Construction activity picking up Supply shortage Strong rental growth Increasing construction activity Increasing vacancy Falling rent levels Construction activity high but falling Atlanta, Brussels, LA, Moscow, New York, Oslo, Paris Amsterdam, Barcelona, Boston, Chicago, Madrid, Warsaw London: City Budapest, Sydney Athens Bucharest, Calgary, Cologne, Copenhagen, Dsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Helsinki, Melbourne, Munich, Rome Berlin, Stuttgart, Vienna Prague, Milan Jakarta Philadelphia, Seoul Beijing Osaka Shanghai Hong Kong Singapore Mumbai Tokyo Detroit Istanbul Luxembourg, Sofia, St. Petersburg, Stockholm, Washington Las Vegas Dallas Global office market cycle 11 Source: RESEARCH, 2009 Slide 12 Rents Europe (prime) annual change 12 Source: RESEARCH, 2009 * Forecast Slide 13 Rents (prime) Moscow, St. Petersburg 13 Source: RESEARCH, 2009 * Forecast High rental increaseDecrease until 2010 Slide 14 Increasing NIY (Q2 2007 - Q4 2008) Quelle: RESEARCH, 2009 14 Slide 15 Office Yields (prime) Europe Source: RESEARCH, 2009 15 * Forecast Slide 16 Office Yields (prime) Europe, Moscow, St. Petersburg Source: RESEARCH, 2009 16 * Forecast Slide 17 Investment market structure Russia Slide 18 Development of commercial property sales Moscow 18 Source: Real Capital Analytics -24 % Deals -12 % Volume Slide 19 Commercial Property Sales by user types 2008 Moscow 19 Source: Real Capital Analytics Total: 5,805 in million USD Slide 20 Commercial real estate capital market Russia 20 Source: DTZ, Money into Property 2008, figures 2007 Total: 31.63 in billion EUR Slide 21 To sum up: Crisis? What Crisis? Slide 22 Back-up Slide 23 Strengths most important economical centre of Russia GDP growth increasing income - low taxes high returns in European comparison high rent level in office and retail sector since 2001 purchase of land by foreigners possible Weaknesses relatively small office space inventory (lack of liquidity) lacking product availability of office and retail space of international standard (Class A and B, shopping centres) low transparency and lack of data availability strong corruption; value of 2,5 (0 = very strong; 10 = none) on the CPI-Index 2006 (Germany: 8,0) Opportunities further maturation of the markets positive economical development retail-relevant pent-up demand of the Russian people building of offices and shopping centres of international standard diversification potential for investors Threats legal and fiscal conditions: e. g. letting of building sites legal certainty for foreigners more legal restrictions of the City of Moskow decreasing level of rents lacking market maturity of Emerging Markets SWOT analysis Moscow from investor's view Slide 24 GDP (real) annual change Source: RESEARCH, 2009 24 Russia above average Slide 25 CPI Inflation annual change 25 Source: RESEARCH, 2009 Russia high CPI Slide 26 Consumer Spending annual change 26 Source: RESEARCH, 2009 Russia above average Slide 27 DEGI Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Immobilienfonds mbH Total Expense Ratio (TER) The Total Expense Ratio (TER) expresses the sum total of costs and charges as a percentage of the average value of the fund within a financial year and thus includes all charges and costs incurred in connection with the fund investment, except for transaction costs and front-end load, if any. Prospectuses and Annual Reports are available free of charge from DEGI and the marketing companies. You will find the daily fund prices in supraregional newspapers and on the Internet at Forward-looking statement disclaimer Forecasts are to be understood as examples which are based on certain assumptions that are considered realistic. We cannot guarantee that the underlying assumptions will actually occur nor can we accept responsibility for deviations due to changes in the legal bases and in economic developments. phone: 0049 (69)-768072-0 E-Mail:[email protected] Part of Aberdeen Property Investors

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